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DOE OSTI2020

Hydropower Geotechnical Foundations: Current Practice and Innovation Opportunities for Low-Head Applications

Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

CFD-trained ANN Model for Approximating Near-occupant Condition in Real-time Simulations

The main drawback of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations has been the time and resource consuming nature which is not suitable for real-time applications. In this work, we first generated numerous CFD models of a given indoor space to obtain airspeed, temperature, and mean radiant temperature near an occupant as training data. Several artificial neural networks (ANN) models were trained using this CFD simulated data to approximate near real-time environmental conditions for a given occupant. This trained ANN model approach is a part of a real-time simulation of building operations using a combination of software and real hardware (HVAC equipment) approaches. The preliminary results suggest that the CFD- generated training data and the trained ANN model can accurately approximate such conditions in a real-time application, a method that has great potential in building simulation and building digital twin areas of research.

Zhang, Yun↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward Addressing the Challenge to Predict the Heat Capacities of RDX and HMX Energetic Materials

Availability of heat capacity as function of pressure and temperature is an essential prerequisite for development of a computational multiscale strategy capable to address the evolution of microstructure and energy release in advanced high energy density materials. In the case of 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane (RDX) and 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane (HMX) systems as two of the most studied energetic materials, there are substantial gaps in experimental data, with available heat capacities values distributed only in a region close to standard ambient conditions. In this study we demonstrate how these major experimental limitations can be addressed in the case of the RDX and HMX systems based on the combined use of classical and quantum mechanical calculations. We show that by considering ideal gas properties evaluated using quantum mechanical methods, and residual properties obtained from molecular simulations using fully flexible atomistic force field models, excellent agreement can be obtained for the predicted heat capacities to the most recent experimental values. An important advantage of the current computational methodology is that it allows evaluation of both constant-volume and constant-pressure heat capacities for a broad interval of temperatures and pressures, which encompasses solid and liquid phases conditions. In the case of the solid α and γ phases of RDX and the β phase of HMX, the predicted results follow closely both the available experimental data at standard ambient conditions and the results obtained using density functional theory calculations at high pressures, a regime where experimental data are not available. A perspective to expand the current methodology is also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kilauea Magnetotelluric Dataset

In 2002 and 2003 a collaborative effort was undertaken between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, the USGS Menlo Park, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, and Electromagnetic Instruments Inc. to study the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii using the magnetotelluric (MT) technique. The work was motivated by a desire to improve understanding of the magma reservoirs and conduits within Kilauea and the East and Southwest Rift zones, which has implications for understanding Kilaueas plumbing system. An improved understanding of the rift zones has implications in understanding large-scale landslides that are generated in the Hilina Slump, which produce significant impacts on coastal communities. Up to eight stations operated simultaneously, with multiple remote reference sites, and data were processed using multi-station robust processing techniques. In total, data were acquired at 70 sites over the Southwest and East rift zones. Good to excellent quality data were obtained even in the harshest conditions, such as those encountered on the fresh lava flows of the East Rift Zone (ERZ), where electrical contact resistances are on the order of 100 kOhm. This data supports the continuing efforts to increase geothermal power on the island of Hawaii. Each of the 70 EDI files are the MT impedance tensors for 1 site. There is also a description of the processing of the data and a site map showing the locations of each site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deployment of BISON models of fuel restructuring at high burnup and related fission gas behavior in UO 2

This milestone report details the advancements made in fiscal year 2024 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to improve the modeling of fission gas behavior in high burnup UO 2 nuclear fuel in the BISON fuel performance code. As nuclear fuel is pushed to higher burnups, significant microstructural changes occur within the fuel, including the formation of a high burnup structure (HBS) on the pellet rim and a dark zone deeper within the pellet. These regions, characterized by subgrain formation and increased pore densities, have critical implications for fission gas behavior and release, which are not well understood. The modeling capabilities in BISON did not adequately predict these phenomena, leading to an underestimation of fuel restructuring and - potentially - of fission gas release. To address these gaps, this milestone focused on three key objectives: (1) reviewing and assessing Sifgrs's capabilities for low burnup fuel, on which high burnup capabilities rely, (2) validating and expanding HBS fission gas modeling capabilities, including investigating mechanisms for fission gas release from HBS, and (3) expanding Sifgrs to enable modeling of dark zone formation and its effects on fission gas behavior. These objectives were achieved and are described herein. The achievements of this NEAMS milestone are significant for the industry's goal of burnup extension. The improved predictive modeling capabilities for both low- and high-burnup conditions enhance our understanding of fuel performance under both normal operations and transient scenarios. Although goals were reached, future work is necessary to validate these models against experimental data and quantify their accuracy in different conditions. In parallel, mechanistic modeling efforts should continue to extend and refine these capabilities to increase accuracy while reducing reliance on empirical models. This will ensure robust performance across a broader range of conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

‪A Novel Methodology for Longitudinal Studies of Home Thermal Comfort Perception and Behavior

Human-building interactions significantly influence building energy consumption and affect peak energy demand. For example, heating and cooling contribute 46% of daily peak residential energy demand. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) can potentially increase energy-demand flexibility and accelerate the adoption of renewables. However, traditional demand response (DR) programs focused on shedding peak loads disregard the human-building interactions leading to occupant thermal frustration. Specifically, they do not model occupants’ ability to override thermostat controls, nor how indoor environmental conditions and sociocultural factors affect the timing and magnitude of overrides. Studies have found 20% of occupants override thermostat setpoints during DR events longer than 6 hours yet lack detail about the motivation that might guide more successful efforts. Balancing energy-demand flexibility with occupant thermal comfort requires understanding dynamic occupant behavior, the underlying psychophysiological drivers, in the context of homes. This paper presents methods for scalable longitudinal studies of residential occupant behavior dynamics to inform the development of psychophysiological occupant-centric building models. Smart sensors were installed to measure local environmental conditions in 20 homes in two regions of the United States. Just-in-time ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) provided qualitative data on occupant thermal comfort and local environmental conditions not captured in Internet-of-Things (IoT) based studies or existing datasets. Participant interviews provided insight into environmental attitudes, mental models, and the role of economics in comfort and behavior, which in turn may affect thermostat interactions. Based on these data, interventions in the next phase of the study will collect data and monitor occupant behavior during simulated DR events.

Kane, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using Spectral Measurements to Characterize Solar Reference Cells on a Two-Axis Tracker

A study is commencing relating the spectral responsivity of reference cells in the field to changing spectral distribution during the day. Initial results indicate that measurements of the incident spectral distribution can be used to match results of reference cell measurements on a two-axis tracker with a standard deviation of ±0.25% under clear-sky conditions. Initial results are provided. As more data are obtained covering a variety of field conditions and locations, the robustness of these results will be tested. The website https://midcdmz.nrel.gov/apps/sitehome.pl?site=PVRES contains the data generated by this project.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dry in-pile fracture test (DRIFT) for separate-effects validation of ceramic fuel fracture models

Fracture is an important component of nuclear fuel behavior, and significant efforts have been invested into developing fuel performance models that are capable of accurately representing fracture. Usable data on the process of fracture propagation in nuclear fuel under realistic service conditions are very limited. To address this need, a series of separate-effects experiments were developed and performed at Idaho National Laboratory's Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility. These experiments employ a heat sink to radially remove heat from the fuel in a manner that approximates the effect of coolant in an operating light-water reactor (LWR). The test holder for these experiments is known as the Dry In-pile Fracture Test (DRIFT). A series of experiments employing DRIFT and TREAT were performed to provide data on the extent and nature of fracture in fresh fuel at various points during a ramp to full power. Novel aspects of these experiments include the way they employ a heat sink to replicate steady-state LWR conditions, as well as the use of fiber optic sensors for in-reactor thermal instrumentation. Details on the development of this experiment, experimental conditions, and resulting data (including in situ thermal measurements and post-irradiation imaging of fracture) are provided in this work. LWR-equivalent powers ranging from 10 to 25 kW/m were tested using this apparatus. Cracking was visible at all power levels, with increasing cracking extent as the power level increased, although there was little difference in the cracking between the two highest-power tests, which had LWR-equivalent powers of 20 and 25 kW/m.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) and Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) for Detection of Cable Anomalies Using Machine Learning

Cables are initially qualified for nuclear power plant use for 40 years. As plants extend their operating license to 60 and 80 years, continued use of these cables must shift to a performance-based approach since it is cost prohibitive to completely replace cables that are likely still capable of performing their design function. A variety of cable tests are available and are commonly applied during outages when the cables can be taken out of service. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is one of these test methods that is being more broadly accepted and used because it not only detects anomalies along the cable with a low-voltage signal that does not stress the cable insulation, but the technique also locates the anomalies. This supports follow-up local inspection and local repair or partial replacement of a damaged cable segment. Currently, FDR testing is only applied to cables that are taken out of service since the test instrument would be damaged by operational voltages. A related technology that has found some acceptance in the aircraft and rail industry is spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR). This technology has been implemented with a custom commercial instrument by LiveWire Innovation Inc. that is designed to operate on live cables up to 1000 volts. One of the main conclusions of a previous effort was that cable reflectometry plots can be difficult for humans to analyze due to baseline noise, low or noisy anomaly response peaks, or large responses from cable ends. Detection of cable anomalies for many of these frequencies and test conditions was challenging for manual analysis. This presented an ideal opportunity for ML analysis to distinguish undamaged cable indications from anomalous cable indications. This research discusses application of machine learning (ML) to reflectometry cable test methods. The goal was to assess feasibility to distinguish undamaged cable reflectometry responses from damaged or anomalous cable reflectometry responses. The assessment considered the 3 instruments, multiple frequency bandwidths from each instrument, multiple cable anomalies and test conditions, and both supervised and unsupervised ML approaches. Although approaches and analysis methods were not identical or directly comparable, both outputs were encouraging. The unsupervised prediction weighted accuracy was assessed by instrument and by frequency. It performed better at high frequencies with the highest prediction accuracy of 0.84 for the higher frequency FDR, 0.79 for the 48-MHz LiveWire SSTDR, and 0.77 for 300-MHz PNNL SSTDR. The initial weighted accuracy average across all frequencies for using supervised ML was 0.56 to 0.68. The supervised analysis was repeated with noisier training data removed resulting in weighted accuracies of 0.69 to 0.87. These weighted accuracies are not directly comparable due to differences in the supervised and unsupervised analysis details but do indicate an encouraging trend. Even with limited and unbalanced data, strong prediction accuracies seem encouraging for further work including more data under a wider range of conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Descriptor: Infrastructure Perception and Control: Multi-Sensor Object Tracking Dataset (IPC-MSOT)

Traffic intersections are crucial and challenging nodes in transportation networks where multiple lanes of vehicles and pedestrians converge. Traffic accidents often occur at traffic intersections, including a large proportion of traffic fatalities and about one-half of all traffic injuries in the United States. Object detection data were collected in 2024 across three intersections in Colorado Springs, CO, USA, over the course of multiple days and various times to induce a heterogeneous mix of traffic conditions and behaviors. The purpose of the data collection exercises was to learn various attributes about infrastructure sensors and to build a repository of high-resolution, object-level data that can be used for research and development (e.g., to develop multisensor data fusion algorithms). The Infrastructure Perception and Control:Multi-Sensor Object tracking (IPC-MSOT) dataset was collected as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's Strengthening Mobility and Revolutionizing Transportation (SMART) project, where the city of Colorado Springs, Colorado, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory collaborated to collect object-level trajectory data from road users using multiple types of infrastructure sensors deployed at different intersections. This dataset allows for testing of late-stage sensor fusion algorithms and their ability to ingest multimodal sensor data, and it can be utilized by traffic engineers to design and evaluate trajectory-based signal control strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Phenome-Wide Association Study of genes associated with COVID-19 severity reveals shared genetics with complex diseases in the Million Veteran Program

The study aims to determine the shared genetic architecture between COVID-19 severity with existing medical conditions using electronic health record (EHR) data. We conducted a Phenome-Wide Association Study (PheWAS) of genetic variants associated with critical illness (n = 35) or hospitalization (n = 42) due to severe COVID-19 using genome-wide association summary data from the Host Genetics Initiative. PheWAS analysis was performed using genotype-phenotype data from the Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program (MVP). Phenotypes were defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes mapped to clinically relevant groups using published PheWAS methods. Among 658,582 Veterans, variants associated with severe COVID-19 were tested for association across 1,559 phenotypes. Variants at the ABO locus (rs495828, rs505922) associated with the largest number of phenotypes (n rs495828 = 53 and n rs505922 = 59); strongest association with venous embolism, odds ratio (OR rs495828 1.33 (p = 1.32 x 10 –199 ), and thrombosis OR rs505922 1.33, p = 2.2 x10 -265 . Among 67 respiratory conditions tested, 11 had significant associations including MUC5B locus (rs35705950) with increased risk of idiopathic fibrosing alveolitis OR 2.83, p = 4.12 × 10 –191 ; CRHR1 (rs61667602) associated with reduced risk of pulmonary fibrosis, OR 0.84, p = 2.26× 10 –12 . The TYK2 locus (rs11085727) associated with reduced risk for autoimmune conditions, e.g., psoriasis OR 0.88, p = 6.48 x10 -23 , lupus OR 0.84, p = 3.97 x 10 –06 . PheWAS stratified by ancestry demonstrated differences in genotype-phenotype associations. LMNA (rs581342) associated with neutropenia OR 1.29 p = 4.1 x 10 –13 among Veterans of African and Hispanic ancestry but not European. Overall, we observed a shared genetic architecture between COVID-19 severity and conditions related to underlying risk factors for severe and poor COVID-19 outcomes. Differing associations between genotype-phenotype across ancestries may inform heterogenous outcomes observed with COVID-19. Divergent associations between risk for severe COVID-19 with autoimmune inflammatory conditions both respiratory and non-respiratory highlights the shared pathways and fine balance of immune host response and autoimmunity and caution required when considering treatment targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of temporal variations in plasma conditions on the electric potential near self-organized dust chains

Self-organization of dust grains into stable filamentary dust structures (or “chains”) largely depends on dynamic interactions between individual charged dust grains and complex electric potential arising from the distribution of charges within a local plasma environment. Recent studies have shown that the positive column of the gas discharge plasma in the Plasmakristall-4 (PK-4) experiment at the International Space Station supports the presence of fast-moving ionization waves, which lead to variations of plasma parameters by up to an order of magnitude from the average background values. The highly variable environment resulting from ionization waves may have interesting implications for the dynamics and self-organization of dust particles, particularly concerning the formation and stability of dust chains. Here, we investigate the electric potential surrounding dust chains in the PK-4 experiment by employing a molecular dynamics model of the dust and ions with boundary conditions supplied by a particle-in-cell with Monte Carlo collision simulation of the ionization waves. The model is used to examine the effects of the plasma conditions within different regions of the ionization wave and compare the resulting dust structure to that obtained by employing the time-averaged plasma conditions. Here, the comparison between simulated dust chains and experimental data from the PK-4 experiment shows that the time-averaged plasma conditions do not accurately reproduce observed results for dust behavior, indicating that more careful treatment of plasma conditions in the presence of ionization waves is required. It is further shown that commonly used analytic forms of the electric potential do not accurately describe the electric potential near charged dust grains under these plasma conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Curation for Machine Learning Applied to Geothermal Power Plant Operational Data for GOOML: Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach to physics-guided, data-centric machine learning. This framework has been used to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with operational environments to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management in real world applications. To create, test, and apply the GOOML framework, diverse time-series datasets spanning multiple years were sourced from various geothermal power plant components within several complex real-world geothermal operations. These operations are based in the United States and New Zealand and include a variety of technologies, end-uses and configurations, collectively covering nearly all relevant operating conditions for modern geothermal fields. Datasets were acquired from multiple sources to ensure that machine learning experiments generalized properly to various operating conditions. It was found that the data varied in quality, format, and completeness. To ensure consistency between the various datasets, a standardized data curation process was developed to reliably streamline data preparation. This paper will discuss best practices as learned from the GOOML data curation process which takes the following steps: 1) acquisition of large quantities of data from power plant operators, 2) digestion of data to gain an initial understanding of what is included, 3) data transformation, which includes converting the data into a standardized machine-readable format so that they can be visualized, quality checked, and cleaned, 4) quality assurance and quality control, involving identification of significant data gaps and apparent anomalies through mapping of data features to real world componentry via the GOOML historical model, followed by discussion with modelers and power plant operators to identify additional data needs and to resolve issues, 5) use in machine learning algorithms, and 6) repetition of steps one through five until all data needs are met and data are deemed suitable for producing trustworthy modeling results which may be disseminated, ideally along with the curated dataset. This iterative process is focused on improving the quality of the data rather than tuning machine learning model parameters and supports a shift towards data-centric AI as a means to improving real-world applicability of geothermal machine learning projects.

access↗

DOE OSTI2025

Information theory optimization of signals from small-angle scattering measurements

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) of particles in solution informs on the conformational states and assemblies of biological macromolecules (bioSAXS) outside of cryo- and solid-state conditions. In bioSAXS, the SAXS measurement under dilute conditions is resolution limited, and through an inverse Fourier transform, the measured SAXS intensities directly relate to the physical space occupied by the particles via the P (r)-distribution. Yet, this inverse transform of SAXS data has been historically cast as an ill-posed, ill-conditioned problem requiring an indirect approach. Here, we show that through the applications of matrix and information theories, the inverse transform of SAXS intensity data is a well-conditioned problem. The so-called ill-conditioning of the inverse problem is directly related to the Shannon number. By exploiting the oversampling enabled by modern detectors, a direct inverse Fourier transform of the SAXS data is possible, provided the recovered information does not exceed the Shannon number. The Shannon limit corresponds to the maximum number of significant singular values that can be recovered in a SAXS experiment, suggesting this relationship is a fundamental property of band-limited inverse integral transform problems. This correspondence reduces the complexity of the inverse problem to the Shannon limit and maximum dimension. We propose a hybrid scoring function using an information theory framework that assesses both the quality of the model-data fit as well as the quality of the recovered P (r)-distribution. The hybrid score utilizes the Akaike information criteria and Durbin-Watson statistic that considers parameter-model complexity, i.e., degrees of freedom, and the randomness of the model-data residuals. The described tests and findings extend the boundaries for bioSAXS by completing the information theory formalism initiated by Peter B. Moore to enable a quantitative measure of resolution in SAXS, robustly determine maximum dimension, and more precisely define the best parameter model appropriately representing the observed scattering data.

Rambo, Robert P. [Science and Technology Facilitie↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct astrophysical tests of chiral effective field theory at supranuclear densities

Recent observations of neutron stars with gravitational waves and X-ray timing provide unprecedented access to the equation of state (EoS) of cold dense matter at densities difficult to realize in terrestrial experiments. At the same time, predictions for the EoS equipped with reliable uncertainty estimates from chiral effective field theory ( x EFT) allow us to bound our theoretical ignorance. In this work, we analyze astrophysical data using a nonparametric representation of the neutron-star EoS conditioned on x EFT to directly constrain the underlying physical properties of the compact objects without introducing modeling systematics. We discuss how the data alone constrain the EoS at high densities when we condition on x EFT at low densities. Here, we also demonstrate how to exploit astrophysical data to directly test the predictions of x EFT for the EoS up to twice nuclear saturation density, in order to estimate the density at which these predictions might break down. We nd that the existence of massive pulsars, gravitational waves from GW170817, and NICER observations of PSR J0030+0451 favor x EFT predictions for the EoS up to nuclear saturation density over a more agnostic analysis by as much as a factor of 7 for the quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations used in this work. While x EFT predictions using QMC are fully consistent with gravitational-wave data up to twice nuclear saturation density, NICER observations suggest that the EoS stiffens relative to these predictions at or slightly above nuclear saturation density. Additionally, for these QMC calculations, we marginalize over the uncertainty in the density at which x EFT begins to break down, constraining the radius of a 1.4M $\bigodot$ neutron star to R 1.4 = $11.40^{+1.38}_{–1.04}$ ($12.54^{+0.71}_{–0.63}$) km and the pressure at twice nuclear saturation density to p(2n sat ) = $14.2^{+18.1}_{–8.4}$ ($28.7^{+15.3}_{–15.0}$) MeV=fm 3 with massive pulsar and gravitational-wave (and NICER) data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Organic matter concentration and composition of experimentally burned open air and muffle furnace vegetation chars across differing burn severity and feedstock types from Pacific Northwest, USA (v4).

This dataset represents results from an experimental study designed to compare how the chemical composition of organic matter changes across different burn conditions and feedstock materials. The dataset provides both solid and dissolved phase bulk concentration and organic matter characterization data from experimentally generated chars. Chars were created in a closed muffle furnace or on an open burn table from four different feedstock species representing vegetation commonly impacted by fire regimes across the Pacific Northwest, USA. This data can be used to compare how different burn conditions may influence resultant organic matter chemistry and help further our understanding of potential biogeochemical impacts on river corridors post-fire. This dataset is comprised of one data package readme, one data dictionary (dd), one file level metadata (flmd), fourteen burn table videos, burn table video metadata and three folders containing (A) data; (B) metadata and protocols; and (C) photos. The folder names and the file name of the data package readme include a version number which will be updated with future iterations of this data package. The data folder includes (1) solid carbon and solid nitrogen; (2) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TN); (3) pH; (4) thermocouple time series temperature; (5) methods codes; (6) installation methods; (7) excitation emissions matrix (EEM) methods information; (8) a folder of excitation emissions matrix (EEM) fluorescence and absorbance spectra in dissolved organic matter and EEMs processing instructions; (9) solid state carbon-13 and solution state phosphorus nuclear magnetic resonance (13-C NMR and 31-P NMR) data and methods; (10) benzene polycarboxylic acid (BPCA) concentration and stable isotope data; (11) FTICR-MS methods; (12) Inductively coupled plasma (ICP) data for total calcium, magnesium, iron, aluminum, potassium, phosphorus, sodium, and sulfur along with sodium hydroxide-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (sodium hydroxide-EDTA) extractable calcium, magnesium, iron, aluminum, potassium, phosphorus, and sulfur; (13) a folder of phosphorus, carbon, and nitrogen X-ray absorption near edge structure (P-XANES, N-XANES, C-XANES) data for samples and standards; (14) P-XANES, N-XANES, C-XANES methods; (15) molybdate reactive phosphorus; and (16) folder of high resolution characterization of organic matter via 21 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) generated through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory). The FTICR folder contains .txt data files and a subfolder containing instruments for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity) and an R script to process the data based on the user's specific needs. The metadata and protocols folder includes (1) international geo-sample number (IGSN) mapping file (2) burn and laboratory metadata; (3) burn protocol; (4) laboratory protocol; (5) vegetation collection metadata; and (6) vegetation collection protocol. The folder contains photos of the solid chars. All files are .csv, .txt, .pdf, .jpg, .jpeg, .R, .ref, or .mp4. The data package was originally published October 2022 (v1). It was updated April 2023 (v2; new data files), September 2023 (v3; new and corrected data files), and September 2024 (v4; new and added/updated files). Metadata files were also updated to reflect these changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Three-dimensional structure of hybrid magnetic skyrmions determined by neutron scattering

Magnetic skyrmions are topologically protected chiral spin textures which present opportunities for next-generation magnetic data storage and logic information technologies. The topology of these structures originates in the geometric configuration of the magnetic spins, more generally described as the structure. While the skyrmion structure is most often depicted using a two-dimensional projection of the three-dimensional (3D) structure, recent works have emphasized the role of all three dimensions in determining the topology and their response to external stimuli. Here, grazing-incidence small-angle neutron scattering and polarized neutron reflectometry are used to determine the 3D structure of hybrid skyrmions. The structure of the hybrid skyrmions, which includes a combination of Néel-like and Bloch-like components along their length, is expected to significantly contribute to their notable stability, which includes ambient conditions. To interpret the neutron scattering data, micromagnetic simulations of the hybrid skyrmions were performed, and the corresponding diffraction patterns were determined using a Born approximation transformation. The converged magnetic profile reveals the magnetic structure along with the skyrmion depth profile, including the thickness of the Bloch and Néel segments and the diameter of the core.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗