History and Logic Model NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Instrument Project Division (IPD) Schedule and Cost Study
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Robbins, Geraldine↗
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Results for “cost model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Electrochemical energy storage subsystems study, volume 1
The effects on life cycle costs (LCC) of major design and performance technology parameters for multi kW LEO and GEO energy storage subsystems using NiCd and NiH2 batteries and fuel cell/electrolysis cell devices were examined. Design, performance and LCC dynamic models are developed based on mission and system/subsystem requirements and existing or derived physical and cost data relationships. The models define baseline designs and costs. The major design and performance parameters are each varied to determine their influence on LCC around the baseline values.
Miller, F. Q.↗
A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models
Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.
Brandon L. Hearley↗
Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics
Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.
Failure↗
A nested grid, nonhydrostatic, elastic model using a terrain-following coordinate transformation - The radiative-nesting boundary conditions
This study presents a nested-grid nonhydrostatic and elastic model using a terrain-following coordinate transformation as well as a unique application of grid-nesting techniques to the time-splitting elastic model. A simulation of the 10-m-high Witch of Agnesi Mountain provides the control to test this new model. The results show that the model produces the same solution as that derived from a simple linear analytic model. It is demonstrated that the new nested-grid model improves model resolution without resorting to the costly method of placing a fine-resolution grid over the entire domain. Since the wave reflection from the boundaries of the fine-grid model is well controlled, the boundary of the nested fine-grid model can be located even at the wave-active region. The model can be used to simulate various weather systems in which scale interactions are important.
Chen, Chaing↗
Mars Rover/Sample Return - Phase A cost estimation
This paper presents a preliminary cost estimate for the design and development of the Mars Rover/Sample Return (MRSR) mission. The estimate was generated using a modeling tool specifically built to provide useful cost estimates from design parameters of the type and fidelity usually available during early phases of mission design. The model approach and its application to MRSR are described.
Stancati, Michael L.↗
WMLES of Boundary-Layer Transition
The potential for the accurate prediction of laminar-turbulent transition by Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation (WMLES) is investigated through analysis of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and WMLES results. The analysis indicates satisfactory prediction of transition by WMLES is possible, provided a) a sufficiently accurate wall model for the initial stage of transition is employed, b) a satisfactory transition is made between this initial-stage wall model and the wall model for the downstream fully-developed turbulence, and c) limitations on temporal and spatial resolution, and on the thickness of the wall-modeled region, imposed by the need to accurately resolve the disturbance waves and the transition region are observed. This is illustrated with a WMLES computation that yields reasonable agreement with DNS results; however, the wall-modeled region thickness, and thus the cost savings, is less than is typical for WMLES of fully developed turbulence.
wall-modeled large-eddy simulation, boundary-layer↗
WMLES of Boundary-Layer Transition
An analysis of the potential for the accurate prediction of laminar-turbulent transition by Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation (WMLES) indicates that satisfactory prediction of transition by WMLES is possible, provided a) a sufficiently accurate wall model for the initial stage of transition is employed, b) a satisfactory transition is made between this initial-stage wall model and the wall model for the downstream fully-developed turbulence, and c) limitations on temporal and spatial resolution, and on the thickness of the wall-modeled region, imposed by the need to accurately resolve the disturbance waves and the transition region are observed. This is illustrated with WMLES computations of subharmonic transition in a flat-plate boundary layer that yield reasonable agreement with DNS results. However, the wall-modeled region thickness, and thus the cost savings, is less than is typical for WMLES of fully developed turbulence.
wall-modeled large-eddy simulation↗
Wakeflow analysis by cost
COST (Computerized Optical Scanning Tomography) is proposed for visualizing wakeflows of aircraft and wind-tunnel models. Operating very close to real time, COST hardware could be installed at airports to monitor turbulent flow trailing large aircraft, so that smaller aircraft could be directed to avoid turbulence. Real-time analysis of jet-engine exhaust plumes, to reduce pollution and optimize performance, is also possible.
Anselmo, V. J.↗
Towards cost-effective reliability through visualization of the reliability option space
In planning a complex system's development there can be many options to improve its reliability. Typically their sum total cost exceeds the budget available, so it is necessary to select judiciously from among them. Reliability models can be employed to calculate the cost and reliability implications of a candidate selection.
optimization↗
Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars
To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level activities.
Hunt, Charles D.↗
Conceptual Design Methods and the Application of a Tradespace Modeling Tool for Deep Space Missions
Concept studies for deep space missions are typically time-consuming and costly, given the variety of missions and uniqueness of each design. Yet, in an increasingly cost-constrained environment, it is critical to identify the most scientifically valuable and cost-effective designs early in the design process. Modeling is an integral part in helping to identify the most desirable design option. While some spacecraft design models currently exist for Earth-orbiting spacecraft, there has been less success with deep space missions. Instead, these missions require a modified design and modeling approach to enable the same construction of a comprehensive, yet credible, mission tradespace. This paper presents an approach for efficiently constructing such a mission tradespace. In addition to a proposed design and modeling approach, three case study missions are presented including a solar orbiter, a Europa orbiter, and a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) sample return mission.
space vehicles↗
Research study on stabilization and control. Modern sampled-date control theory. Stability analysis of the low cost large space telescope system
A mathematical model employing Fourier series is used to show quantization and reaction wheel friction nonlinearity in a telescope system for use in space. Block diagrams are used to illustrate the system. A discrete describing function of a quantizer also is given, and input and output signal waveforms, with illustrative examples, are shown.
Kuo, B. C.↗
Study program for encapsulation materials interface for low cost silicon solar array
An atmospheric corrosion model was developed and verified by five months of corrosion rate and climatology data acquired at the Mead, Nebraska LSA test site. Atmospheric corrosion rate monitors (ACM) show that moisture condensation probability and ionic conduction at the corroding surface or interface are controlling factors in corrosion rate. Protection of the corroding surface by encapsulant was shown by the ACM recordings to be maintained, independent of climatology, over the five months outdoor exposure period. The macroscopic corrosion processes which occur at Mead are shown to be reproduced in the climatology simulator. Controlled experiments with identical moisture and temperature aging cycles show that UV radiation causes corrosion while UV shielding inhibits LSA corrosion.
Kaelble, D. H.↗
Modifications to Encke's method for long arc orbit determination solutions
An expanded model is developed that permits the extrapolation of Encke's method for the determination of orbits with long arcs, and the model is used to determine a solution for the Lageos trajectory. Encke's method is reviewed emphasizing the nature of the growth of the Encke ratio and the reliability of extrapolated reference trajectories. The reference-orbit formulation is improved by including parameters that accommodate drag and large-amplitude perodic variations in the orbital elements. The proposed Long Arc Model is expected to provide a maximum Encke ratio that is an order of magnitude more reliable than that given by the secularly precessing ellipse. The computational cost of using the Long Arc Model is shown to compare favorably with that of the true force model, and the long arc solutions are useful for current orbit-determination needs.
Lundberg, J. B.↗
Evolutionary Development of the Simulation by Logical Modeling System (SIBYL)
Through the evolutionary development of the Simulation by Logical Modeling System (SIBYL) we have re-engineered the expensive and complex IBM mainframe based Long-term Hardware Projection Model (LHPM) to a robust cost-effective computer based mode that is easy to use. We achieved significant cost reductions and improved productivity in preparing long-term forecasts of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) hardware. The LHPM for the SSME is a stochastic simulation model that projects the hardware requirements over 10 years. SIBYL is now the primary modeling tool for developing SSME logistics proposals and Program Operating Plan (POP) for NASA and divisional marketing studies.
Wu, Helen↗
WMLES of Boundary-Layer Transition
An analysis of the potential for the accurate prediction of laminar-turbulent transition by Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation (WMLES) indicates that satisfactory prediction of transition by WMLES is possible, provided a) a sufficiently accurate wall model for the initial stage of transition is employed, b) a satisfactory transition is made between this initial-stage wall model and the wall model for the downstream fully-developed turbulence, and c) limitations on temporal and spatial resolution, and on the thickness of the wall-modeled region, imposed by the need to accurately resolve the disturbance waves and the transition region are observed. This is illustrated with WMLES computations of subharmonic transition in a flat-plate boundary layer that yield reasonable agreement with DNS results. However, the wall-modeled region thickness, and thus the cost savings, is less than is typical for WMLES of fully developed turbulence.
Wall-modeled large-eddy simulation↗
Enhancing Long-Term Trend Simulation of OH Through the Synergy of Model Simulations and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 and HCHO Retrievals
During the last few years, tremendous progress has been made to develop an efficient parameterization module using agile machine learning techniques. The aim of this module is to provide dynamic response of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) to its major drivers, including trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorology. This module, named ECCOH (pronounced “echo”) and implemented in NASA’s GEOS-5 global model, offers an unrealized opportunity to unravel the convoluted response of OH to its underlying drivers while approaching the accuracy of full-chemistry without incurring excessive computational costs, making it suitable for climate models. However, the accurate representation of OH in ECCOH poses challenges due to the lack of representation of some of its critical inputs such as the abundance of NO 2 and HCHO concentrations. As such, we leverage the well-characterized satellite observations of NO2 and HCHO columns from Aura OMI to enhance their representation in ECCOH using an optimal interpolation method for the time period of 2005 - present. We show how the inclusion of OMI information can affect the spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of OH, CO, and CH 4 across the globe. Additionally, we underscore the necessity of obtaining high-fidelity information regarding tropospheric ozone from the southern hemisphere from space, a region currently lacking full verification in models, posing a challenge to get a reasonable amount of chemical sink for CH 4 .
OH↗