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780 records · Page 44

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗

The Broad-Band X-Ray Spectrum of IC 4329A from a Joint NuSTAR/Suzaku Observation

We have obtained a deep, simultaneous observation of the bright, nearby Seyfert galaxy IC 4329A with Suzaku and NuSTAR (Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array). Through a detailed spectral analysis, we are able to robustly separate the continuum, absorption, and distant reflection components in the spectrum. The absorbing column is found to be modest (approximately 6 times 10 (sup 21) per square centimeter), and does not introduce any significant curvature in the Fe K band. We are able to place a strong constraint on the presence of a broadened Fe K alpha line (E (sub rest) equals 6.46 (from plus 0.08 to minus 0.07) kiloelectronvolts with sigma equals 0.33 (from plus 0.08 to minus 0.07) kiloelectronvolts and EW equals 34 (from plus 8 to minus 7) electronvolts), though we are not able to constrain any of the parameters of a relativistic reflection model. These results highlight the range in broad Fe K line strengths observed in nearby, bright, active galactic nuclei (roughly an order of magnitude), and imply a corresponding range in the physical properties of the inner accretion disk in these sources. We have also updated our previously reported measurement of the high-energy cutoff of the hard X-ray emission using both observatories rather than just NuSTAR alone: E (sub cut) equals 186 plus or minus 14 kiloelectronvolts. This high-energy cutoff acts as a proxy for the temperature of the coronal electron plasma, enabling us to further separate this parameter from the plasmas optical depth and to update our results for these parameters as well. We derive kT 50 (from plus 6 to minus 3) kiloelectronvolts with tau equals 2.34 (from plus +0.16 to minus 0.11) using a spherical geometry, kT equals 61 plus or minus1 kiloelectronvolt with tau equals 0.68 plus or minus 0.02 for a slab geometry, with both having an equivalent goodness-of-fit.

Dynamics - stars↗

Chapter 13. Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation, but in this case a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10 deg S, indicate that the zonal winds are mostly in the sense of the satellite's rotation. They generally increase with altitude and become cyclostrophic near 35 km above the surface. An exception to this is a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from temperatures retrieved from Cassini orbiter measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds of 190 m/s at mid northern latitudes near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures in both hemispheres are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by about 4 deg. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the onset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the seasonally varying subsolar latitude. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggest subsidence in the north polar region during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50 deg N. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of isolating high and low-latitude air masses as do the winter polar vortices on Earth that envelop the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in the troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have been found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent: with the Huygens measurements, Along the descent trajectory, the Huygens measurements indicate eastward zonal winds down to 7 km, where they shift westward, and then eastward again below 1 km dawn to the surface. The low-latitude dune fields seen in Cassini RADAR images have been interpreted as longitudinal dunes occurring in a mean eastward zonal wind. This is not like Earth, where the low-latitude winds are westward above the surface. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torque exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, there must be westward flow over part of the surface; the question is where and when. The meridional contrast in tropospheric temperatures deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes. is small, approximately 5 K at the tropopause and approximately 3 K at the surface. This implies efficient heat transport, probably by axisymmetric meridional circulations. The effect of the methane "hydrological" cycle on the atmospheric circulation is not well constrained by existing measurements, Understanding the mature of the surface-atmosphere coupling will be critical to elucidating the atmospheric transports of momentum, heat, and volatiles.

Flasar, F. M.↗

A High-Eccentricity Warm Jupiter Orbiting TOI-4127

We report the discovery of TOI-4127 b, which is a transiting, Jupiter-sized exoplanet on a long period (P=56.39879 +0.00010 -0.00010 days) and a high-eccentricity orbit around a late F-type dwarf star. This warm Jupiter was first detected and identified as a promising candidate from a search for single-transit signals in TESS Sector 20 data and was later characterized as a planet following two subsequent transits (TESS Sectors 26 and 53) and follow-up ground-based RV observations with the NEID and SOPHIE spectrographs. We jointly fit the transit and RV data to constrain the physical (R p =1.096 +0.039 -0.032 R J , M p =2.30 +0.11 -0.11 M J ) and orbital parameters of the exoplanet. Given its high orbital eccentricity (𝓮=0.7471 +0.0078 -0.0086 ), TOI-4127 b is a compelling candidate for studies of warm Jupiter populations and of hot Jupiter formation pathways. We show that the present periastron separation of TOI-4127 b is too large for high-eccentricity tidal migration to circularize its orbit, and that TOI-4127 b is unlikely to be a hot Jupiter progenitor unless it is undergoing angular momentum exchange with an undetected outer companion. Although we find no evidence for an external companion, the available observational data are insufficient to rule out the presence of a perturber that can excite eccentricity oscillations and facilitate tidal migration.

Exoplanet astronomy↗

The Atmosphere-Space Transition Region Explorer (ASTRE) – A Low Perigee Satellite to Investigate the Coupling of the Earth’s Upper Atmosphere and Magnetosphere

The Atmosphere-Space Transition Region Explorer (ASTRE) is a mission concept designed to carry out an unprecedented study of the interaction between the Earth’s atmosphere and the ionized gases of space within the atmosphere-space transition region. By gathering direct measurements of the coupling of ion and neutral gases in this region, ASTRE provides the critical missing link in our knowledge of the transfer, dissipation, and regulation of energy and momentum between the sun and the upper atmosphere. ASTRE provides the first detailed, systematic investigation of this important unexplored region, vastly improves and constrains models of the upper atmosphere, and fills a critical gap in our understanding of how the coupled lower ionosphere/upper atmosphere “works” as a system. To achieve its science objectives, ASTRE gathers accurate measurements of plasma and neutral gases, electric and magnetic fields, and energetic particles using well-proven, in situ instruments with excellent flight heritage. Furthermore, as described herein, all the instruments have been designed to perform well in the low perigee environment, including altitudes of 150 km and lower. ASTRE utilizes a three-axis stabilized satellite that uses on-board propulsion to carry out systematic, low perigee measurements at high latitudes. The satellite design incorporates a “form follows function” approach with a cylindrical shape and conductive body-mounted solar arrays to minimize drag and perturbations to the space environment. Atomic-oxygen resistant materials are utilized and a passive thermal design with heat pipes and radiator panels minimizes the impact of aero-heating. ASTRE launches into a 250 km × 1500 km elliptical insertion orbit with an inclination of 83°. Perigee precesses from its highest northern latitude to its highest southern latitude every ~60 days. Hydrazine propulsion provides over 2000 orbits with perigee below 200 km, with a significant fraction as low as 150 km, during high latitude, two-week campaigns when perigee precesses to either the northern or southern high latitude region. At mid and low latitudes, the perigee is near 225 km. Because very conservative assumptions were made with respect to the orbital analysis and drag, including continuous 3-sigma “worst-case” solar flux and atmospheric density, when additional propellant is included (accommodated in the current design) and some of the stringent assumptions are relaxed, the ASTRE mission described herein may be expected to include repeated excursions to altitudes of ~130 km or even lower. This paper presents an overview of the ASTRE mission, its science motivation, and objectives. It includes a discussion of the science-driven requirements and traceability, followed by a “proof-of concept” implementation that includes notional instruments and a straightforward spacecraft design. Three key points are demonstrated: 1) There is a critical knowledge gap in the high latitude, atmosphere-space transition region below 250 km; 2) The instrument and measurement techniques needed to obtain the ASTRE measurements are well-proven and function well in the low-altitude environment; and 3) A mature spacecraft design, flight dynamics analysis, and concept of operations have been developed that demonstrate that the ASTRE mission can be achieved in a straightforward manner using current technologies.

Ionosphere↗

4.32 Billion Year Old Impact Melts at Apollo 14: Dating the Procellarum Basin?

Introduction: Recent work has improved our understanding of lunar crustal structure and basin evolution on the Moon, but its early impact history and implications for solar system dynamics remain poorly established [1,2]. In particular, there is a derth of absolute ages, especially for the period >4.0 Ga, that could be related to basin-forming events. Here we present U-Pb isotopic data for Zr-rich minerals found in impact-melt fragments from Apollo 14 soil sample 14163 that, when combined with previously published data, dates an impact event at 4324±15 Ma. The compositions and ages of these impact-melt fragments provide unique information about the timing of early impact events and the composition of the lunar crust. Results: Fourteen rocklets ranging in size from 1 to 3 mm were extracted from soil 14163. Most are impactmelt rocks with 10-30% clasts of mostly pyroxene and plagioclase (100 to 500 μm) in a crystalline matrix. Textures of the matrix vary from subophitic, formed by intergrowths of 10-20 μm plagioclase and pyroxene crystals, to poikilitic, with plagioclase and pyroxene reaching 20-50 μm size. Some fragments that contain no visible clasts have similar textures are also interpreted as impact-melt rocks. All fragments contain notably large proportions of euhedral to subhedral ilmenite, zircon, apatite/merrillite and less abundant zirconolite and baddeleyite in the melt matrices. These grains often form intricate intergrowths with each other and rock-forming minerals, indicating their crystallization from the melt (Fig. 1). However, some slightly larger (~50 μm) zircon and phosphate grains can be interpreted as relict clasts based on their granular textures and relationships with the surrounding phases (Fig. 1). This implies that zircon and phosphate minerals were present in the target rocks. Some of these grains were profoundly remelted during the impact, which resulted in an oversaturation of the melt in Zr and P and crystallization of new grains of Zrrich minerals and phosphates during melt solidification. The presence of zircon and phosphates indicates that the melts were significantly enriched in KREEP components and ties their provenance to the Procellarum- KREEP Terrane (PKT) [3]. Combined U-Pb zircon data obtained for all fragments form two main clusters on a concordia diagram (Fig. 2), between about 4.3 and 3.9 Ga. Phosphate data mostly concentrate on the younger end of this age range but some analyses are almost as old as the older zircon grains (Fig. 2). Figure 1: Zircon (Zr) and phosphate (Apt; Mer) grains in impact melt fragments from Apollo 14 soil 14161. A-zircon grains crystallized from impact melt; B-phosphate grain inherited from the target; C- granular zircon grains Our interpretation of these data is that all U-rich minerals experienced variable resetting of the U-Pb system, with phosphate, where closure temperature is significantly lower than that in zircon, affected more profoundly by Pb loss than zircon. Our best estimate of the time of formation of zircon and phosphate is based on statistically valid analysis of grains interpreted texturally as grown from the impact melt (Fig. 2). Ten of these analyses define an age of 4324±15 Ma (MSWD=3.0, probability of fit P=0.002). Our best estimate for the time of resetting is obtained by combining data from phosphates that are statistically indistinguishable from 3.9 Ga within the analytical uncertainties. This group is represented by 18 analyses of 15 phosphate grains from different fragments (Fig. 2) and defines an age of 3922±6 Ma (MSWD=1.2, P=0.23). Conversely, a minimum age of the target lithologies, remelted in the impact that produced the rocklets studied here (Fig. 2), can be determined from the five oldest analyses of zircon clasts at 4338±13 Ma (MSWD=1.5, P=0.2), which is indistinguishable from the age of the impact melt within the uncertainties. The obtained ages, combined with textural evidence, imply that the impact melt was formed at 4324±15 Ma, and that it occurred in a zircon-rich target with a minimum age of 4338±13 Ma. Further reworking occurred during a second impact event at 3922±6 Ma. Discussion: The younger age of 3922±6 Ma can be interpreted as the time of the Imbrium impact. The older age of 4324±15 Ma would then be the time of formation of the impact melt, which was then caught in the Imbrium ejecta either at the Apollo 14 landing site or within the target rocks of the Imbrium impact. The presence of abundant accessory phases such as zircons and phosphates is consistent with a substantial KREEP component in the analyzed particles. The current distribution of KREEP on the lunar surface appears to be strongly influenced by Imbrum ejecta [4] so interpretation of the 4.32 Ga age depends in part on assumed structure of the pre-impact crust and distribution of KREEP within the crust. If KREEP was present only in the deep crust at 4.32 Ga, then a basin-scale impact possibly analogous to Imbrium or larger may be necessary to excavate a KREEPy impact melt at this time. However, if KREEPy materials were present closer to the surface perhaps due to redistribution related to Mg-suite magmatism, then smaller impacts might be able to rework KREEPy compositions at shallower depths. The coherence of the data on the particles analysed here suggests a large volume of melt that has been preserved since 4.32 Ga, consistent with a large impact event. Relict zircons and mineral clasts suggests that the igneous crust in the vicinity of this impact was well developed by at least 4.34 Ga, similar to the model age of KREEP and older than the isochron ages of many Mg-suite cumulates [5]. A problem that confronts all lunar sample studies using the current collection is that the pre-Imbrium geology of the PKT (the source of these 4.32 Ga impact melts) is not well constrained. The South Pole-Aitken basin contains regions that are moderately enriched in Th, but its ejecta is Th-poor [6]; therefore these A14 fragments are probably not SPA ejecta. Alternatively, these fragments may represent formation of a hypothesized Procellarum basin [7] although the lack of a clearly defined basin ejecta signature is a potential problem with that interpretation. In any case, they provide a younger limit on the age of lunar differentiation and formation of KREEP within the lunar crust. Figure 2: U-Pb data for zircon and phosphate grains from impact melt fragments. A-all data; B-data used for age calculations. References: [1] Orgel C., Michael G., Fassett C. I., van der Bogert C. H., Riedel C., Kneissl T., and Hiesinger H. (2018) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 123, 748- 762. [2] Evans A. J., Andrews-Hanna J. C., Head J. W., Soderblom J. M., Solomon S. C., and Zuber M. T. (2018) J. Geophys. Planets. 123, 1596-1617. [3] Jolliff, B.L., Gillis, J.J., Haskin, L.A., Korotev, R.L. and Wieczorek, M.A. (2000) J. Geophys. Res: Planets 105, 4197-4216. [4] Haskin L. A. (1998) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 103, 1679-1689. [5] Borg L.E., Gaffney A.M., and Shearer C.K. (2015) MAPS 50, 715-732. [6] Moriarty, D.P., Watkins, R.N., Valencia, S.N., Kendall, J.D., Evans, A.J., Dygert, N. and Petro, N.E. (2021) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 126. [7] Zhu, M.H., Wünnemann, K., Potter, R.W., Kleine, T. and Morbidelli, A. (2019) J. Geophys. Res: Planets 124, 2117-2140

M D Norman↗