Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterizations of linear sufficient statistics

A necessary and sufficient condition is developed such that there exists a continous linear sufficient statistic T for a dominated collection of totally finite measures defined on the Borel field generated by the open sets of a Banach space X. In particular, corollary necessary and sufficient conditions are given so that there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T for any finite collection of probability measures having n-variate normal densities. In this case a simple calculation, involving only the population means and covariances, determines the smallest integer K for which there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T (as well as an associated statistic T itself).

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗

Electrostatic charging characteristics of thermal control paints as function of temperature

The charging characteristics of paints for various uses on spacecraft under electron bombardment were studied. It was found that there is not a strong temperature dependence of the charging characteristics between -155 C and +30 C; and there is a noticeable hystereis effect as the electron beam energy is varied. Furthermore, all of the paints tested exhibit large secondary yields at low (approx. 1 keV) bombarding electron energies; and surfaces can charge either positively or negatively depending on the conditions and the paint. It was concluded that paints are not simple, will require more detailed study, and will probably act differently in multiple energy electron tests.

Robinson, P. A., Jr.↗

Effectiveness of back-to-back testing

Three models of back-to-back testing processes are described. Two models treat the case where there is no intercomponent failure dependence. The third model describes the more realistic case where there is correlation among the failure probabilities of the functionally equivalent components. The theory indicates that back-to-back testing can, under the right conditions, provide a considerable gain in software reliability. The models are used to analyze the data obtained in a fault-tolerant software experiment. It is shown that the expected gain is indeed achieved, and exceeded, provided the intercomponent failure dependence is sufficiently small. However, even with the relatively high correlation the use of several functionally equivalent components coupled with back-to-back testing may provide a considerable reliability gain. Implications of this finding are that the multiversion software development is a feasible and cost effective approach to providing highly reliable software components intended for fault-tolerant software systems, on condition that special attention is directed at early detection and elimination of correlated faults.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning

The models of statistical mechanics provide an alternative to the methods of classical mechanics more traditionally used in robotics. They have a potential to: improve analysis of object collisions; handle kinematic and dynamic contact interactions within the same frmework; and reduce the need for perfect deterministic world model information. The statistical mechanics models characterize the state of the system as a probability density function (p.d.f.) whose time evolution is governed by a partial differential equation subject to boundary and initial conditions. The boundary conditions when rigid objects collide reflect the conservation of momentum. The models are being developed to embedd in remote semi-autonomous systems with a need to reason and interact with a multiobject environment.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Asymptotic behavior of curvature of surface elements in isotropic turbulence

The asymptotic behavior of the curvature of material elements in turbulence is investigated using Lagrangian velocity-gradient time series obtained from direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence. Several material-element ensembles of different initial curvatures and shapes are studied. It is found that, at long times, the (first five) moments of the logarithm of characteristic curvature and shape factor asymptote to values that are independent of the initial curvature or shape. This evidence strongly suggests that the asymptotic pdf's of the curvature and shape of material elements are stationary and independent of initial conditions. Irrespective of initial curvature or shape, the asymptotic shape of a material surface is cylindrical with a high probability.

Girimaji, S. S.↗

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high-pressure fuel turbopump of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗

Derivation of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. A dynamic failure is said to occur if this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline. The authors present a method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space-which is derived from given input and state constraints-is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. The authors consider a one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure.

Shin, Kang G.↗

Derivation and application of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. If this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline, either the necessary conditions for system stability are violated or the system leaves the allowed state-space. In such a case a dynamic failure is said to occur to the system. A method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems by considering system stability and the allowed state-space is presented. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space - which is derived from given input and state constraints - is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. A one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure is also considered. The knowledge of hard deadline is then applied to the design of error recovery in a triple modular redundant (TMR) controller computer.

Shin, Kang G.↗

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high pressure fuel turbopump of the space shuttle main engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗

Interplanetary magnetic field dependency of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs

This is the first analysis, using a statistically significant data set, of the morphological dependence of the presence, orientation, and motion of stable sun-aligned polar cap arcs upon the vector interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). For the one winter season analyzed we had 1392 all-sky 630.0-nm images of 2-min resolution containing a total of 150 polar cap arcs, all with corresponding values of the IMF as measured by International Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 or International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 2. After demonstrating an unbiased data set with smooth normal distributions of events versus the dimensions of time, space, and IMF component, we examine IMF dependencies of the properties of the optical arcs. A well-defined dependence for B(sub z) is found for the presence/absence of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs. Consistent with previous statistical studies, the probability of observing polar cap aurora steadily increases for larger positive values of B(sub z), and linearly decreases when B(sub z) becomes more negative. The probability of observing Sun-aligned arcs within the polar cap is determined to vary sharply as a function of the arc location; arcs were observed 40% of the time on the dawnside and only 10% on the duskside. This implies an overall probability of at least 40% for the whole polar cap. 20% of the arcs were observed during 'southward IMF conditions,' but in fact under closer inspection were found to have been formed under northward IMF conditions; these 'residual' positive B(sub z) arcs ha d a delayed residence time in the polar cap of about what would be expected after a north to south transition of B(sub z). A firm dependence on B(sub y) is also found for both the orientation and the dawn-dusk direction of motion of the arcs. All the arcs are Sun-aligned to a first approximation, but present deviations from this orientation, depending primarily upon the location of the arc in corrected geomagnetic (CG) coordinates. The arcs populating the 06-12 and the 12-18 quadrants of the CG coordinate system point toward the cusp. The B(sub y) dependency of the arc alignment is consistent with a cusp displacement in local time according to the sign of B(sub y). We found that the arc direction of motion depended both on B(sub y) and the arc location within the polar cap. For a given value of B(sub y) two well-defined regions (or cells) exist. Within each cell the arcs move in the same direction toward the boundary between the cells. The arcs located in the duskside move dawnward; those in the dawnside move duskward. The relative size of these dusk and dawn regions (or cells) are controlled by the magnitude of B(sub y). This persistent dusk-dawn motion fo the polar cap arcs is interpreted in terms of newly open flux tubes entering the polar cap and exerting a displacement of the convective cells and the polar cap arcs that are embedded within them.

Valladares, C. E.↗

Radiation-Driven Warping: Nonisothermal Disks - 2

Recent work by Pringle and by Maloney, Begelman, & Pringle has shown that geometrically thin, optically thick, accretion disks are unstable to warping driven by radiation torque from the central source. This work was confined to isothermal (i.e., surface density Sigma varies as R(sup -3/2) disks. In this paper we generalize the study of radiation-driven warping to include general power-law surface density distributions, Sigma varies as R(sup -delta).We consider the range from Delta = 3/2 (the isothermal case) to Delta = -3/2, which corresponds to a radiation-pressure-supported disk; this spans the range of surface density distributions likely to be found in real astrophysical disks. In all cases there are an infinite number of zero-crossing solutions (i.e., solutions that cross the equator), which are the physically relevant modes if the outer boundary of the disk is required to lie in a specified plane. However, unlike the isothermal disk, which is the degenerate case, the frequency eigenvalues for Delta does not equal 3/2 are all distinct. In all cases the location of the zero moves outward from the steady state (pure precession) value with increasing growth rate; thus, there is a critical minimum size for unstable disks. Modes with zeros at smaller radii are damped. The critical radius and the steady state precession rate depend only weakly on Delta. An additional analytic solution has been found for Delta = 1. The case Delta = 1 divides the solutions into two qualitatively different regimes. For Delta greater than or equal to 1, the fastest growing modes have maximum warp amplitude, close to the disk outer edge, and the ratio of Beta(sub max) to the warp amplitude at the disk inner edge, Beta(sub o), is much greater than 1. For Delta less than 1, Beta(sub max/Beta(sub o) approximately equals 1, and the warp maximum steadily approaches the origin as Delta decreases. This implies that nonlinear effects must be important if the warp extends to the disk inner edge for Delta greater than or equal to 1, but for Delta less than 1 nonlinearity will be important only if the warp amplitude is large at the origin. Because of this qualitative difference in the shapes of the warps, the effects of shadowing of the central source by the warp will also be very different in the two regimes of Delta. This has important implications for radiation-driven warping in X-ray binaries, for which the value of Delta characterizing the disk is likely to be less than unity. In real accretion disks the outer boundary condition is likely to be different from the zero-crossing condition that we have assumed. In accretion disks around massive black holes in active galactic nuclei, the disk will probably become optically thin before the outer disk boundary is reached, whereas in X-ray binaries there will be an outer disk region (outside the circularization radius) in which the inflow velocity is zero but angular momentum is still transported. We show that in both these cases the solutions are similar to the zero-crossing eigenfunctions.

Maloney, Philip R.↗

The Role of Viscous Deformation in the Morphology of the Martian North Polar Cap

The first detailed topographic measurements of Mars' north polar cap have recently been collected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), an instrument on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). These new data provide the opportunity to address in a quantitative way the processes responsible for the origin and evolution of the martian polar caps. On the basis of imaging and spectral observations from the Mariner 9 and Viking orbiters, it was recognized that a number of physical mechanisms. including radiative transfer, wind erosion, and viscous flow, represent possible or probable contributors to the morphology of the polar cap. Here we review rheological data for H2O and CO2 at conditions relevant to the martian polar regions. We then use MOLA topographic profiles to perform a preliminary assessment of the role of power law flow in contributing to the regional-scale planform of the north polar cap.

Zuber, M. T.↗

Polyamine binding to proteins in oat and Petunia protoplasts

Previous work (A Apelbaum et al. [1988] Plant Physiol 88: 996-998) has demonstrated binding of labeled spermidine (Spd) to a developmentally regulated 18 kilodalton protein in tobacco tissue cultures derived from thin surface layer explants. To assess the general importance of such Spd-protein complexes, we attempted bulk isolation from protoplasts of Petunia and oat (Avena sativa). In Petunia, as in tobacco, fed radioactive Spd is bound to protein, but in oat, Spd is first converted to 1,3,-diaminopropane (DAP), probably by polyamine oxidase action. In oat, binding of DAP to protein depends on age of donor leaf and conditions of illumination and temperature, and the extraction of the DAP-protein complex depends upon buffer and pH. The yield of the DAP-protein complex was maximized by extraction of frozen-thawed protoplasts with a pH 8.8 carbonate buffer containing SDS. Its molecular size, based on Sephacryl column fractionation of ammonium sulfate precipitated material, exceeded 45 kilodaltons. Bound Spd or DAP can be released from their complexes by the action of Pronase, but not DNAse, RNAse, or strong salt solutions, indicating covalent attachment to protein.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

Ditching Tests of a 1/9-Size Model of the Army P-38 Airplane in Langley Tank No. 2 and at the Outdoor Catapult

A dynamically similar model of the Army P-38 airplane was tested to determine the best way to land this airplane on the water and to determine its probable ditching performance. The tests consisted of ditching the model at various landing attitudes, flap settings, speeds, weights, and conditions of simulated damage. The model was ditched in calm water from the tank towing carriage and a few ditching were made in both calm and rough water at the outdoor catapult. The performance of the model was determined by making visual observations, by recording lengths of run and time histories of decelerations, and by taking motion pictures of the ditchings.

Jarvis, George A.↗

Evaluation of GEOS Total Cloud Fraction with GLOBE Citizen Science Observations and Co-Located Satellite Data

Here we evaluate the total cloud fraction in cycled forecast experiments with the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. Forecasts were run for summer and winter periods of 2017/2018 and compared with ground-based and satellite observations. Citizen science observations from the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Program were matched with MODIS satellite overpasses and geostationary cloud fraction, yielding a dataset of coincident observations for comparison with hourly model output. The observations indicate a model bias toward overcast and clear conditions, with underestimation of intermediate cloud fractions. We investigate underestimation of variance in the sub-grid total water probability density function (PDF) as a possible cause. The PDF determines large-scale cloud fraction as the sub-grid fraction with total water exceeding the saturation specific humidity. We conduct model experiments in which the shape, width, and spatial dependence of the PDF are varied, and consider the impacts on cloud fraction relative to the combined observations.

Starke, Matthew↗