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At least 793 records · Page 44

Modeling of Transmittance Degradation Caused by Optical Surface Contamination by Atomic Oxygen Reaction with Adsorbed Silicones

A numerical procedure is presented to calculate transmittance degradation caused by contaminant films on spacecraft surfaces produced through the interaction of orbital atomic oxygen (AO) with volatile silicones and hydrocarbons from spacecraft components. In the model, contaminant accretion is dependent on the adsorption of species, depletion reactions due to gas-surface collisions, desorption, and surface reactions between AO and silicone producing SiO(x), (where x is near 2). A detailed description of the procedure used to calculate the constituents of the contaminant layer is presented, including the equations that govern the evolution of fractional coverage by specie type. As an illustrative example of film growth, calculation results using a prototype code that calculates the evolution of surface coverage by specie type is presented and discussed. An example of the transmittance degradation caused by surface interaction of AO with deposited contaminant is presented for the case of exponentially decaying contaminant flux. These examples are performed using hypothetical values for the process parameters.

Snyder, Aaron↗

Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies for safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuator. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster when subjected to high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management. Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life based on their current state of heal th and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. The focus of this paper is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions and implementing Bayesian framework for making remaining useful life predictions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to remaining useful life in DC-DC converters.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.↗

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Single-molecule imaging of lignocellulose deconstruction by SCATTIRSTORM microscopy

The goal of this project is to build a multimodal optical microscope to measure the binding, processive degradation, and pausing behaviors of cellulases as they interact with and degrade both synthetic and naturally occurring lignocellulosic walls. To achieve this, we will use high spatio-temporal single-molecule imaging to track cellulases, while visualizing specific molecular components of cellulose, lignin and hemicellulose, that make up their lignocellulose substrate. The microscope will combine Interferometric Scattering (iSCAT), which provides unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution; Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF), which provides single-molecule resolution of multiple fluorophore-labeled molecules; and Stochastic Reconstruction (STORM), which allows for three-dimensional super-resolution imaging of intact plant cell walls during degradation. Initial studies will investigate cellulase dynamics on in vitro-assembled cell wall analogs, and later work will progress to using native plant cell walls.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Durable and High-Performance SOECs Based on Proton Conductors for Hydrogen Production

Proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (P-SOECs) are a promising technology for cost-effective and efficient production of green hydrogen. Breakthroughs in materials development, optimization of cell structure, and achievement of high performance and durability are essential to significantly increase the commercial competitiveness of these technologies. The main objective of this project is to gain scientific knowledge for the rational design, fabrication, and demonstration of a robust, highly efficient, and low-cost SOEC technology based on a proton-conducting electrolyte membrane for hydrogen production. We focused on better understanding the degradation mechanisms of proton-conducting electrolytes, air electrodes, and catalyst materials under electrolysis mode to develop an effective strategy for rationalizing new materials that are vital for enhancing cell performance and durability. The scope includes enhancing the performance and durability of the electrolyte and electrode materials under realistic operating conditions, developing highly active and robust catalysts to minimize electrode losses while improving tolerance to contaminant poisoning, revealing the mechanism of enhanced activity and stability of the catalyst, and understanding the underlying degradation mechanisms. In addition, various characterization techniques were employed to gain a fundamental understanding of the materials’ behavior and their impact on cell performance, providing vital information to guide materials discovery and cell design. After defect chemistry engineering, the optimized donor and acceptor co-doped electrolytes BaMo/W 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ (BM/W03) showed substantially improved chemical stability against high concentrations of CO 2 and H 2 O compared to the state-of-the-art electrolyte (BaZr 0.1 Ce 0.7 Y 0.1 Yb 0.1 O 3-δ , BZCYYb1711) while maintaining comparable ionic conductivity and ionic transference number. To bypass the inherent trade-off between conductivity and chemical stability, we fabricated a bi-layer electrolyte composed of BZCYYb1711 coated with a highly-stable thin layer of BaHf 0.83 Yb 0.17 O 3-δ (BHYb). This bi-layer electrolyte displayed excellent chemical stability against high concentration CO 2 ; there was no detectable formation of BaCO 3 after exposure to 97% CO 2 (with 3% H 2 O) at 500 °C for 1000 hours and the rate of degradation in resistance was about 0.4% per 1,000 hours (kh). In contrast, the same BZCYYb1711 electrolyte without a BHYb coating degraded significantly under the same testing conditions; the degradation rate was increased to 5.1%/kh. In addition, a triple conducting air electrode Ba 0.9 Pr 0.1 Hf 0.1 Y0.1Co 0.8 O 3-δ (BPHYC) was developed by heavily doping transition metal ions into a proton-conducting material. This air electrode material, composed of 3 distinct phases, exhibits superior electrocatalytic activity due to the synergistic effect from the three component phases. Moreover, an active and durable catalyst, La 2 Ni 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 4+δ (LNF), was developed, showing excellent catalytic activity and contaminant tolerance, with a degradation rate of only 0.49%/kh when exposed to high concentrations of steam and Cr. Finally, single cells were constructed from the best electrolytes, electrodes, and catalyst coatings developed in this project. These cells demonstrated superior high current density at a given cell voltage, high roundtrip efficiency, and remarkable durability (up to 1000 hours of operation).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Incompressible Turbulent Wing-Body Junction Flow

The overall objective of this study is to contribute to the optimized design of fan bypass systems in advanced turbofan engines. Increasing the engine bypass ratios have provided a major boost in engine performance improvement over the last fifty years. An engine with high bypass ratio (11-16:1) such as the Advanced Ducted Propulsion (ADP) is being developed and is expected to provide an additional 25% improvement in overall efficiency over the early turbofans. Such significant improvements in overall efficiency would reduce the cost per seat mile, which is a major government and Industry challenge for the 21th century. The research is part of the Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) program that involves a NASA, U.S. Industry and FAA partnership with the goal of a safe and highly productive global air transportation system. The immediate objective of the study is to perform numerical simulation of duct-strut interactions to elucidate the loss mechanisms associated with this configuration that is typical of advanced turbofan engines such as ADP. However, at present experimental data for a duct-strut configuration are not available. Thus, as a first step a wing-body junction flow would be studied and is the specific objective of the present study. At the outset it is to be recognized that while duct-strut interaction flow is similar to that of wing-body junction flows, there are some differences owing to the presence of a wall at both ends of the strut. Likewise, some differences are due to the sheared inflow (as opposed to a uniform inflow) velocity profile. It is however expected that some features of a wing-body junction flow would persist. Next, some of the salient aspects of the complex flow near a wing-body junction, as revealed by various studies reported in the literature will be reviewed. One of the principle characteristics of the juncture flow, is the presence of the mean flow components in a plane perpendicular to the direction of the oncoming free-stream flow. The lateral curvature of the wing/strat causes the oncoming turbulent layer to skew about am axis (x-axis) parallel to the plane (xz-plane) of the mean shear. This is the principle mechanism for the generation of secondary flow. Such skew-induced secondary flows are slow to be attenuated by Reynolds stresses. Additional contribution to the generation of secondary flow comes from anisotropies in Reynolds stresses. Upstream of the strut, the mean-vorticity is directed span wise (along the y-direction). The presence of secondary flow in the vicinity of the strut causes the vorticity to stretch around the obstacle in a horse-shoe shape, with each leg having a vorticity of the opposite sense. The blockage effect of the strut imposes a severe adverse pressure gradient on the oncoming turbulent shear layer, causing boundary layer separation ahead of the leading edge, resulting in a vortex that rolls up and flows downstream into the juncture region. The separation vortices trailing in the wake of the wing can alter the lift or drag characteristics of the surfaces downstream of the wing-body juncture. Likewise, on submarines, the wake flow behind the appendage can degrade the performance of the propeller located downstream. The complex nature of this flow is caused by the presence of all six components of Reynolds stresses. Devenport and Simpson report that in the vicinity of the horse-shoe vortex there is intense recirculation with turbulent stresses being much larger than those normally observed in turbulent flows. These features contribute to making this flow a challenge to predict numerically. Some of the past studies provide useful insights into this flow that would guide our numerical efforts. In measurements reported by Shabaka and Bradshaw, the eddy viscosity tensor is seen to be non-isotropic and has negative components in certain regions. In an effort to evaluate the closure assumptions of various turbulence models, Devenport and Simpson used their own extensive measurements in juncture flows around the nose of a wing-body junction. Measured values of mean-velocity and/or turbulence kinetic energy was used to predict the magnitude of the shear stress vector. Algebraic stress models performed the best followed by Cebeci-Smith eddy viscosity model. The flow is reported to be dominated by a pressure field produced by the wing and the velocity field generated by the horseshoe vortex that is wrapped around the junction between the wing and wall. Kubendran et al. conclude from an experimental study that the shape of leading edge of the wing as characterized by its slenderness ratio is a major factor in determining the flow fields in the juncture region. The more thinner the leading edge of the juncture, the weaker the horseshoe vortex is. Also, with a slender leading edge, the secondary flow in the juncture would be due mainly to the cross-stream gradients of Reynolds stresses rather than due to a lateral skewing of the shear layer.

Krishnamurthy, R.↗

Multi-objective optimization of low-GWP mixture composition and heat exchanger circuitry configuration for improved system performance and reduced refrigerant flammability

The recently introduced hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerants, including R1234yf and R1234ze(E), have significantly lower global warming potentials (GWPs) than traditional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants like R410A. However, prior tests show that direct drop-in of pure R1234yf or R1234ze(E) into equipment designed for R410A results in a decrease in heat exchanger capacity and the system coefficient of performance. The primary reason is the lower in-tube heat transfer performance of R1234yf and R1234ze(E) compared with that of R410A. To address this issue, previous studies have mixed the mildly flammable HFC R32 with HFOs to improve system performance, with HFC R125 also added to suppress flammability. Previous studies selected compositions based on simple cycle analyses and did not consider modifications of the heat exchanger circuitry configuration to adapt to the new refrigerants. This study presents a novel multi-objective optimization approach to design a refrigerant composition that maximizes energy efficiency within flammability and GWP limits. The approach in this work simultaneously optimizes mixture composition and heat exchanger circuitry configuration. A case study on a rooftop unit indicates that, compared with mixture-only optimization, simultaneous optimization of mixture and heat exchanger circuitry yields a 5.9% improvement in cycle efficiency and a 48.6% reduction in refrigerant flammability with a GWP of 268. Circuitry optimization using refrigerants with different temperature glides shows that the larger the temperature glide is, the larger EER improvement is obtained. The results show that zeotropic blends with a large temperature glide are more sensitive to the refrigerant circuitry than pure refrigerants and may suffer significant performance degradation with subpar heat exchanger circuitry design. The proposed optimization approach is generally applicable to mixtures with any number of components. Using this approach to design a HVAC system can yield higher system efficiency within flammability and GWP constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhanced long-term cyclability in Li-Rich layered oxides by electrochemically constructing a Li x TM 3-x O 4 -type spinel shell

The poor long-term cycling stability, including the fast capacity fade and the severe voltage decay, has become the main concern hindering the practical application of Li-rich layered oxides, a promising cathode for high- energy-density Li-ion battery. Herein, we design and electrochemically construct a ~10 nm-thick Li x TM 3-x O 4 - type (TM ¼Ni, Co, Mn, 0 3 O 4 -type spinel phase and the good Liþconductivity of LiMn 2 O 4 -type spinel phase. Systemic structural and electrochemical analysis demonstrate that, it slows down the activation rate of Li 2 MnO 3 component and efficiently alleviates the lattice O loss at high voltage (>4.5 V) and Mn dissolution, thereby suppressing the structural degradation from the layered phase to the spinel phase in the bulk, eventually significantly enhancing the long-term cycling stability. This study adds richness into the Mn-based spinel phase system and provides a new heterostructure design strategy to improve the electrochemical performance of Li-rich layered cathodes and beyond.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis and modeling of tungsten emission and net erosion in the DIII-D divertor using updated atomic data

Tungsten (W) is one of the leading candidate materials for plasma-facing components. However, its main drawback is its high radiative efficiency; if W penetrates the plasma, it can lead to core degradation or even collapse. Since eroded tungsten tends to ionize in the sheath and redeposit promptly, the net erosion flux that escapes prompt redeposition can differ significantly from the gross erosion. This work presents a modeling framework to estimate net erosion and photon emission from W coatings exposed to the lower divertor of DIII-D using the DiMES material exposure probe. The approach couples RustBCA for sputtering yields with a Monte Carlo transport code (LPTMC) that models redeposition and W emission. Computation is carried out with new atomic data, based on R-matrix and Mons calculations, leading to lower ionization probabilities and a twofold increase in net erosion estimates compared to calculations done with OPEN-ADAS atomic data. The model results are benchmarked against experimental measurements, showing quantitative agreement for erosion, although the trends in W emission are reproduced only qualitatively. The model is also used to assess whether W II emission can serve as a direct measurement of the net erosion of W in the lower divertor of DIII-D. Simulations show that this is not valid if the electron pressure is above ~120 Pa or if the toroidal length of the eroded material is smaller than the parallel-to-B distance traveled by impurity ions before steady-state conditions are reached. Finally, simulations suggest that when W is sputtered by carbon ions with high impact energies (≳300 eV) in DIII-D, W net erosion scales with W gross erosion and can be numerically approximated using W I flux alone as input.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Temporal prepulse contrast degradation in high-intensity CPA lasers from anisotropy of amplifier gain media

Here, we present a study of the temporal pre-pulse contrast degradation of high focused intensity pulses produced in CPA laser systems due to imperfections in amplifier design, alignment of amplifier components, and crystal inhomogeneity. Using an extended cross-polarized imaging technique, we demonstrate the presence of multiple crystal domains inside Ti:sapphire slabs with ≈10 cm diameter. Furthermore, the results of our numerical calculations show that crystalline c-axis orientation inhomogeneity caused by these crystal domains can lead to generation of pre-pulses with relative contrast >10 -10 within several picoseconds before the main pulse. In a multiple-slab amplifier head configuration sometimes used in high repetition rate systems, the misalignment of the amplifier slabs crystalline c-axes with respect to each other can lead to the generation of pre-pulses with relative contrast as high as 10 -6 , depending on the magnitude of misalignment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Catalyst Deactivation Modes of PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 Catalysts for Lean Methane Oxidation

PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 catalysts are one of the most active catalytic components for the complete oxidation of methane. Under reaction conditions, especially in a wet feed, the catalysts suffer severe performance degradation. This study establishes a series of testing protocols to systematically investigate the causes of catalyst deactivation under methane oxidation reaction conditions. Four distinct catalyst deactivation modes are identified. Two of the deactivation modes are directly related to H 2 O, either from the feed gas or as a part of the reaction products, with one (Mode 2) being attributed to the formation of surface hydroxyl groups and the other (Mode 3) to the competitive adsorption of H 2 O on the catalysts. The impact of the two deactivation modes is acute and severe but reversible. In contrast, the other two deactivation modes are gradual and persistent but irreversible. Both modes are induced by CH 4 oxidation reaction, with the impact of a wet feed (Mode 4) being substantially more severe than that of a dry feed (Mode 1). The major cause of the irreversible catalyst deactivation is attributed to surface reconstruction of PdO nanoparticles, which behaves as a passivation layer lowering the number of coordinately unsaturated Pd sites for CH 4 activation. Although the passivation layer is relatively stable against thermal or hydrothermal treatment, it is not completely inert. Formation and partial regeneration of the passivation layer is a highly dynamic process and heavily depends on the reaction temperature: a lower reaction temperature (≤ 450 ℃) can lead to quicker catalyst deactivation; but a higher reaction temperature (between 500 – 550 ℃) can result in a greater extent of catalyst deactivation.

PdO/γ-Al2O3↗

Observation of Potential Contaminants in Processed Biomass Using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy

With rapidly increased interests in biomass, diverse chemical and biological processes have been applied for biomass utilization. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis has been used for characterizing different types of biomass and their products, including natural and processed biomass. During biomass treatments, some solvents and/or catalysts can be retained and contaminate biomass. In addition, contaminants can be generated by the decomposition of biomass components. Herein, we report FTIR analyses of a series of contaminants, such as various solvents, chemicals, enzymes, and possibly formed degradation by-products in the biomass conversion process along with poplar biomass. This information helps to prevent misunderstanding the FTIR analysis results of the processed biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Simplified procedures for correlation of experimentally measured and predicted thrust chamber performance

Thrust chamber performance is evaluated in terms of an analytical model incorporating all the loss processes that occur in a real rocket motor. The important loss processes in the real thrust chamber were identified, and a methodology and recommended procedure for predicting real thrust chamber vacuum specific impulse were developed. Simplified equations for the calculation of vacuum specific impulse are developed to relate the delivered performance (both vacuum specific impulse and characteristic velocity) to the ideal performance as degraded by the losses corresponding to a specified list of loss processes. These simplified equations enable the various performance loss components, and the corresponding efficiencies, to be quantified separately (except that interaction effects are arbitrarily assigned in the process). The loss and efficiency expressions presented can be used to evaluate experimentally measured thrust chamber performance, to direct development effort into the areas most likely to yield improvements in performance, and as a basis to predict performance of related thrust chamber configurations.

Powell, W. B.↗

A strategy for analysis of thermal decomposition of polymeric materials

Some analytical methods developed in flammability research are reviewed. Computerized analytical systems are used to separate, identify, and quantify components of complex mixtures of low-boiling volatiles, high-boiling volatiles, and solid residues resulting from pyrolysis, oxidative degradation, and flaming combustion processes. To demonstrate the procedure for determining a material's response to a thermal flux administered under dynamic conditions, the treatment of data is reported for samples of an aromatic polyamide fabric which were degraded under isothermal conditions of 550 C following a dynamic heating rate of 100 C/min from ambient to final temperature.

Einhorn, I. N.↗

Development of monofilar rotor hub vibration absorber

A design and ground test program was conducted to study the performance of the monofilar absorber for vibration reduction on a four-bladed helicopter. A monofilar is a centrifugal tuned two degree-of-freedom rotor hub absorber that provides force attenuation at two frequencies using the same dynamic mass. Linear and non-linear analyses of the coupled monofilar/airframe system were developed to study tuning and attenuation characteristics. Based on the analysis, a design was fabricated and impact bench tests verified the calculated non-rotating natural frequencies and mode shapes. Performance characteristics were measured using a rotating absorber test facility. These tests showed significant attenuation of fixed-system 4P hub motions due to 3P inplane rotating-system hub forces. In addition, detuning effects of the 3P monofilar modal response were small due to the nonlinearities and tuning pin slippage. However, attenuation of 4P hub motions due to 5P inplane hub forces was poor. The performance of the 5P monofilar modal response was degraded by torsional motion of the dynamic mass relative to the support arm which resulted in binding of the dynamic components. Analytical design studies were performed to evaluate this torsional motion problem. An alternative design is proposed which may alleviate the torsional motion of the dynamic mass.

Duh, J.↗

The Reconstruction and Failure Analysis of the Space Shuttle Columbia

Several days following the Columbia accident a team formed and began planning for the reconstruction of Columbia. A hangar at the Kennedy Space Center was selected for this effort due to it's size, available technical workforce and materials science laboratories and access to the vehicle ground processing infrastructure. The Reconstruction team established processes for receiving, handling, decontamination, tracking, identifying, cleaning and assessment of the debris. Initially, a 2-dimensional reconstruction of the Orbiter outer mold line was developed. As the investigation progressed fixtures which allowed a 3-dimensional reconstruction of the forward portions of the left wing's leading edge was developed. To support the reconstructions and forensic analyses a Materials and Processes (M&P) 'team was formed. This M&P team established processes for recording factual observations, debris cleaning, and engineering analysis. Fracture surfaces and thermal effects of selected airframe debris were assessed, and process flows for both nondestructive and destructive sampling and evaluation of debris were developed. The Team also assessed left hand airframe components that were believed to be associated with a structural breach of Columbia. A major portion of this analysis was evaluation of metallic deposits were prevalent on left wing leading edge components. Extensive evaluation of the visual, metallurgical and chemical nature of the deposits provided conclusions that were consistent with the visual assessments and interpretations of the NASA lead teams and the findings of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Analytical data collected by the M&P Team showed that a significant thermal event occurred at the left wing leading edge in the proximity of LH RCC Panels 8-9, and a correlation was formed between the deposits and overheating in these areas to the wing leading edge components. The analysis of deposits also showed exposure to temperatures in excess of 1649 C (3200 F), which would severely degrade support structure, tiles, and RCC panel materials. The integrated failure analysis of wing leading edge debris and deposits strongly supported the hypothesis that a breach occurred at LH RCC Panel 8.

Russell, Richard↗

Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions. Electrolytic capacitors have higher failure rates than other components in electronic systems like power drives, power converters etc. Our current work focuses on developing first-principles-based degradation models for electrolytic capacitors under varying electrical and thermal stress conditions. Prognostics and health management for electronic systems aims to predict the onset of faults, study causes for system degradation, and accurately compute remaining useful life. Accelerated life test methods are often used in prognostics research as a way to model multiple causes and assess the effects of the degradation process through time. It also allows for the identification and study of different failure mechanisms and their relationships under different operating conditions. Experiments are designed for aging of the capacitors such that the degradation pattern induced by the aging can be monitored and analyzed. Experimental setups and data collection methods are presented to demonstrate this approach.

Prognostics of Electronics↗