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At least 793 records · Page 44

Comparison of Acoustic Impedance Eduction Techniques for Locally-Reacting Liners

Typical acoustic liners used in current aircraft inlets and aft-fan ducts consist of some type of perforated facesheet bonded to a honeycomb core. A number of techniques for determining the acoustic impedance of these locallyreacting liners have been developed over the last five decades. In addition, a number of models have been developed to predict the acoustic impedance of locallyreacting liners in the presence of grazing flow, and to use that information together with aeroacoustic propagation codes to assess the noise absorption provided by these liners. These prediction models have incorporated the results from databases acquired with specific impedance eduction techniques. Thus, while these prediction models are acceptable for liners that are similar to those tested in these databases, their application to new liner configurations must be viewed with caution. The primary purpose of this paper is to provide a comparison of impedance eduction techniques that have been implemented at various aerospace research laboratories in the United States (NASA Langley Research Center, General Electric Aircraft Engines, B. F. Goodrich and Boeing). A secondary purpose is to provide data for liner configurations that extend the porosity range beyond that which has been previously used in common aircraft engine nacelles. Two sets of liners were designed to study the effects of three parameters: perforate hole diameter, facesheet thickness and porosity. These two sets of liners were constructed for testing in each of the laboratories listed above. The first set of liners was designed to fit into the NASA Langley and Boeing test facilities. The second set was designed to fit into the General Electric Aircraft Engines and B. F. Goodrich test facilities. By using the same parent material, both sets of liners were identical to within the limits of material and fabrication variability. Baseline data were obtained in the normal incidence impedance tubes at NASA Langley and B. F. Goodrich. The results were found to compare extremely well. The samples were then tested in the grazing flow ducts of each of the four laboratories. Perhaps the most significant result of these comparisons is that the educed acoustic resistances for the liners used in this study increase as the mean flow profile is modified from uniform to 3-D shear. This realization has demonstrated the need for an frequency-dependent impedance eduction technique that incorporates 3-D shear flow and is efficient.

Jones, M. G.↗

An International Strategy for Human Exploration of the Moon: The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies and released in May 2007. Several ISECG participating space agencies have been studying concepts for human exploration of the moon that allow individual and collective goals and objectives to be met. This 18 month study activity culminated with the development of the ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration. The reference architecture is a series of elements delivered over time in a flexible and evolvable campaign. This paper will describe the reference architecture and how it will inform near-term and long-term programmatic planning within interested agencies. The reference architecture is intended to serve as a global point of departure conceptual architecture that enables individual agency investments in technology development and demonstration, International Space Station research and technology demonstration, terrestrial analog studies, and robotic precursor missions to contribute towards the eventual implementation of a human lunar exploration scenario which reflects the concepts and priorities established to date. It also serves to create opportunities for partnerships that will support evolution of this concept and its eventual realization. The ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration (commonly referred to as the lunar gPoD) reflects the agency commitments to finding an effective balance between conducting important scientific investigations of and from the moon, as well as demonstrating and mastering the technologies and capabilities to send humans farther into the Solar System. The lunar gPoD begins with a robust robotic precursor phase that demonstrates technologies and capabilities considered important for the success of the campaign. Robotic missions will inform the human missions and buy down risks. Human exploration will start with a thorough scientific investigation of the polar region while allowing the ability to demonstrate and validate the systems needed to take humans on more ambitious lunar exploration excursions. The ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration serves as a model for future cooperation and is documented in a summary report and a comprehensive document that also describes the collaborative international process that led to its development. ISECG plans to continue with architecture studies such as this to examine an open transportation architecture and other destinations, with expanded participation from ISECG agencies, as it works to inform international partnerships and advance the Global Exploration Strategy.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗

A Comparison of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Uranium Metal-Water Systems using Calculated and Experimental Critical Data

Heterogeneous effects of fissile units latticed in water has been documented in several forms in commonly referenced handbooks and guides. Many of these documents provide guidance for when heterogeneous systems are more reactive than their homogenous counterparts if controlling fissile mass or volume. This information provides insight into when heterogeneity should be considered for conservatism, however this information is not always displayed in a manner that is comparable to commonly referenced data, such as critical curves based on spherical systems. This paper aims to provide a juxtaposition of homogenous and heterogeneous uranium metal-water systems using both experimental and calculated critical data displayed in the format of commonly referenced critical curves. This format allows for easy comparison between the two systems against parameters that are often considered for single unit analysis such as: uranium density, fissile mass, system volume, and total system mass (fissile mass plus moderator mass). Calculated critical spherical systems provide an equal comparison between latticed geometry types as the latticed array can be physically cut off or restricted in the same manner in each series of models, which is not true for experimental values. Additionally, enrichment of the latticed units can be made uniform in the calculated systems, which is difficult to achieve when referencing experimental data of varying latticed geometries. A comparison of calculated critical values and available experimental values is provided to show how these parameters can impact the critical spherical system result.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Daytime Video Monitoring for Bird, Insect, and Other Wildlife Interactions with Photovoltaic Solar Energy Facilities

Studying bird, insect, and other wildlife interactions with photovoltaic (PV) solar energy facilities is difficult due to limited multi-season, multi-site data. Researchers can address such data gaps by combining passive monitoring and artificial intelligence (AI). As a part of the development of AI-enabled avian–solar monitoring software, we collected over 19,000 h of daytime videos at five PV sites across three U.S. regions between 2019 and 2024. We applied a moving object detection and tracking (MODT Version 1) AI model we developed earlier to 4373 h of the footage to extract moving objects in video frames, and human reviewers interpreted the model output and identified 68,646 bird, 25,968 insect, and 169 other wildlife instances to generate the training/validation dataset. We analyzed the data by site, region, and season, considering ground cover and landscapes. Songbirds were most common, with raptors as the next most frequent group. Most notably, no bird collisions were confirmed in our observations collected from the videos. Birds most often flew over or near panels, with the highest observations in the Midwest and Northeast (approximately 30 observations per hour on average) and fewer in the desert Southwest. Other behaviors included perching, foraging, and nesting. Bird abundance peaked during breeding and migration seasons. AI-assisted video monitoring proved effective for non-invasively studying flying wildlife at solar facilities to inform ecologically mindful energy development.

avian mortality↗

Use of Transmission Electron Microscopy for Analysis of Aerosol Particles and Strategies for Imaging Fragile Particles

For over 25 years, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) has provided a method for the study of aerosol particles with sizes from below the optical diffraction limit to several microns, resolving the particles as well as smaller features. The wide use of this technique to study aerosol particles has contributed important insights about environmental aerosol particle samples and model atmospheric systems. TEM produces an image that is a 2D projection of aerosol particles that have been impacted onto grids and, through associated techniques and spectroscopies, can contribute additional information such as the determination of elemental composition, crystal structure, and 3D particle structures. Soot, mineral dust, and organic/inorganic particles have all been analyzed using TEM and spectroscopic techniques. TEM, however, has limitations that are important to understand when interpreting data including the ability of the electron beam to damage and thereby change the structure and shape of particles, especially in the case of particles composed of organic compounds and salts. In this paper, we concentrate on the breadth of studies that have used TEM as the primary analysis technique. Another focus is on common issues with TEM and cryogenic-TEM. Insights for new users on best practices for fragile particles, that is, particles that are easily susceptible to damage from the electron beam, with this technique are discussed. Tips for readers on interpreting and evaluating the quality and accuracy of TEM data in the literature are also provided and explained.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Review: knots and other new topological effects in liquid crystals and colloids

Abstract Humankind has been obsessed with knots in religion, culture and daily life for millennia, while physicists like Gauss, Kelvin and Maxwell already involved them in models centuries ago. Nowadays, colloidal particles can be fabricated to have shapes of knots and links with arbitrary complexity. In liquid crystals, closed loops of singular vortex lines can be knotted by using colloidal particles and laser tweezers, as well as by confining nematic fluids into micrometer-sized droplets with complex topology. Knotted and linked colloidal particles induce knots and links of singular defects, which can be interlinked (or not) with colloidal particle knots, revealing the diversity of interactions between topologies of knotted fields and topologically nontrivial surfaces of colloidal objects. Even more diverse knotted structures emerge in nonsingular molecular alignment and magnetization fields in liquid crystals and colloidal ferromagnets. The topological solitons include hopfions, skyrmions, heliknotons, torons and other spatially localized continuous structures, which are classified based on homotopy theory, characterized by integer-valued topological invariants and often contain knotted or linked preimages, nonsingular regions of space corresponding to single points of the order parameter space. A zoo of topological solitons in liquid crystals, colloids and ferromagnets promises new breeds of information displays and a plethora of data storage, electro-optic and photonic applications. Their particle-like collective dynamics echoes coherent motions in active matter, ranging from crowds of people to schools of fish. This review discusses the state of the art in the field, as well as highlights recent developments and open questions in physics of knotted soft matter. We systematically overview knotted field configurations, the allowed transformations between them, their physical stability and how one can use one form of knotted fields to model, create and imprint other forms. The large variety of symmetries accessible to liquid crystals and colloids offer insights into stability, transformation and emergent dynamics of fully nonsingular and singular knotted fields of fundamental and applied importance. The common thread of this review is the ability to experimentally visualize these knots in real space. The review concludes with a discussion of how the studies of knots in liquid crystals and colloids can offer insights into topologically related structures in other branches of physics, with answers to many open questions, as well as how these experimentally observable knots hold a strong potential for providing new inspirations to the mathematical knot theory.

Physics↗

CORAL: A framework for rigorous self-validated data modeling and integrative, reproducible data analysis

Abstract Background Many organizations face challenges in managing and analyzing data, especially when relevant datasets arise from multiple sources and methods. Analyzing heterogeneous datasets and additional derived data requires rigorous tracking of their interrelationships and provenance. This task has long been a Grand Challenge of data science and has more recently been formalized in the FAIR principles: that all data objects be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable, both for machines and for people. Adherence to these principles is necessary for proper stewardship of information, for testing regulatory compliance, for measuring the efficiency of processes, and for facilitating reuse of data-analytical frameworks. Findings We present the Contextual Ontology-based Repository Analysis Library (CORAL), a platform that greatly facilitates adherence to all 4 of the FAIR principles, including the especially difficult challenge of making heterogeneous datasets Interoperable and Reusable across all parts of a large, long-lasting organization. To achieve this, CORAL's data model requires that data generators extensively document the context for all data, and our tools maintain that context throughout the entire analysis pipeline. CORAL also features a web interface for data generators to upload and explore data, as well as a Jupyter notebook interface for data analysts, both backed by a common API. Conclusions CORAL enables organizations to build FAIR data types on the fly as they are needed, avoiding the expense of bespoke data modeling. CORAL provides a uniquely powerful platform to enable integrative cross-dataset analyses, generating deeper insights than are possible using traditional analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California

Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. This report provides a drought and extreme heat impacts assessment of data centers in this region. Expert solicitation of data center experts enabled a tailored approach to this report. We identify the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrate how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. We emphasize the importance of including future climate projections into data center design and planning. This report is an important first step towards building an effective extreme heat and drought adaptation strategy for data centers in Northern California. While our geographical focus in this report is Northern California, many findings in this report are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fundamental procedures of geographic information analysis

Analytical procedures common to most computer-oriented geographic information systems are composed of fundamental map processing operations. A conceptual framework for such procedures is developed and basic operations common to a broad range of applications are described. Among the major classes of primitive operations identified are those associated with: reclassifying map categories as a function of the initial classification, the shape, the position, or the size of the spatial configuration associated with each category; overlaying maps on a point-by-point, a category-wide, or a map-wide basis; measuring distance; establishing visual or optimal path connectivity; and characterizing cartographic neighborhoods based on the thematic or spatial attributes of the data values within each neighborhood. By organizing such operations in a coherent manner, the basis for a generalized cartographic modeling structure can be developed which accommodates a variety of needs in a common, flexible and intuitive manner. The use of each is limited only by the general thematic and spatial nature of the data to which it is applied.

Berry, J. K.↗

IER 268 CED-3b Report

The goal of IER 268 was to collect information from the operation of the Godiva IV super-prompt critical assembly to support multi-physics modeling efforts. There were two types of systems deployed. One was a Photo-Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) system which used the reflection of laser light on the surface of the Godiva IV core. The other consisted of an MHD 240 detector with two other detectors (an MHD-241 and an Eljen EJ-325A) used for reference as the MHD-240 detector was moved. The collection is referred to as the MHD Detector in the narrative log. There were two types of Godiva operations performed to gather data. A series of super-prompt critical bursts were performed and data collected on both systems, tied to a common trigger. Separately, a series of delayed critical operations at various power levels was performed for a combination of MHD detector distances from Godiva and the presence and absence of a shield in the line of sight between Godiva and the MHD detector. This data was collected to determine the contribution of room return during the burst measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Approach to derivation of SIR-C science requirements for calibration

Many of the experiments proposed for the forthcoming SIR-C mission require calibrated data, for example those which emphasize (1) deriving quantitative geophysical information (e.g., surface roughness and dielectric constant), (2) monitoring daily and seasonal changes in the Earth's surface (e.g., soil moisture), (3) extending local case studies to regional and worldwide scales, and (4) using SIR-C data with other spaceborne sensors (e.g., ERS-1, JERS-1, and Radarsat). There are three different aspects to the SIR-C calibration problem: radiometric and geometric calibration, which have been previously reported, and polarimetric calibration. The study described in this paper is an attempt at determining the science requirements for polarimetric calibration for SIR-C. A model describing the effect of miscalibration is presented first, followed by an example describing how to assess the calibration requirements specific to an experiment. The effects of miscalibration on some commonly used polarimetric parameters are also discussed. It is shown that polarimetric calibration requirements are strongly application dependent. In consequence, the SIR-C investigators are advised to assess the calibration requirements of their own experiment. A set of numbers summarizing SIR-C polarimetric calibration goals concludes this paper.

Dubois, Pascale C.↗

Single-input/single-output transfer functions for a flexible slewing link

Truncated linear models based on constrained and unconstrained mode expansions for a flexible link with torque actuation at its hub led us to examine the behavior of the open-loop-zeros of five commonly used SISO transfer functions. We arrive at new conclusions with regard to minimum- and non-minimum-phase zeros, and passivity of the transfer functions. The flexible-to-rigid inertia (FRI) ratio plays an important role in the determination of these characteristics. This paper illustrates how the zero locations of some of the transfer functions are dramatically affected by the FRI ratio. We also investigate the performance of a hub angle, hub rate, and relative tip position static feedback controller based on a reduced-order constrained mode model when applied to both unconstrained and constrained mode models of the same dimension. Simulations indicate that the constrained model can be stable while the unconstrained model is not for high FRI ratios. Our findings can provide useful information to designers in cases where the controller is sensitive to the 1ocation of the plant's zeros.

Barbieri, Enrique↗

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗

Atomic fluctuations in electronic materials revealed by dephasing

The microscopic origin and timescale of the fluctuations of the energies of electronic states has a significant impact on the properties of interest of electronic materials, with implication in fields ranging from photovoltaic devices to quantum information processing. Spectroscopic investigations of coherent dynamics provide a direct measurement of electronic fluctuations. Modern multidimensional spectroscopy techniques allow the mapping of coherent processes along multiple time or frequency axes and thus allow unprecedented discrimination between different sources of electronic dephasing. Exploiting modern abilities in coherence mapping in both amplitude and phase, we unravel dissipative processes of electronic coherences in the model system of CdSe quantum dots (QDs). The method allows the assignment of the nature of the observed coherence as vibrational or electronic. The expected coherence maps are obtained for the coherent longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which serves as an internal standard and confirms the sensitivity of the technique. Fast dephasing is observed between the first two exciton states, despite their shared electron state and common environment. This result is contrary to predictions of the standard effective mass model for these materials, in which the exciton levels are strongly correlated through a common size dependence. In contrast, the experiment is in agreement with ab initio molecular dynamics of a single QD. Electronic dephasing in these materials is thus dominated by the realistic electronic structure arising from fluctuations at the atomic level rather than static size distribution. The analysis of electronic dephasing thereby uniquely enables the study of electronic fluctuations in complex materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗