Results for “basis sets” — Page 44

DOE OSTI2022

Methods to Calculate Electronic Excited-State Dynamics for Molecules on Large Metal Clusters with Many States: Ensuring Fast Overlap Calculations and a Robust Choice of Phase

Here, we present an efficient set of methods for propagating excited-state dynamics involving a large number of configuration interaction singles (CIS) or Tamm-Dancoff approximation (TDA) single-reference excited states. Specifically, (i) following Head-Gordon et al., we implement an exact evaluation of the overlap of singly-excited CIS/TDA electronic states at different nuclear geometries using a biorthogonal basis and (ii) we employ a unified protocol for choosing the correct phase for each adiabat at each geometry. For many-electron systems, the combination of these techniques significantly reduces the computational cost of integrating the electronic Schrodinger equation and imposes minimal overhead on top of the underlying electronic structure calculation. As a demonstration, we calculate the electronic excited-state dynamics for a hydrogen molecule scattering off a silver metal cluster, focusing on high-lying excited states, where many electrons can be excited collectively and crossings are plentiful. Interestingly, we find that the high-lying, plasmon-like collective excitation spectrum changes with nuclear dynamics, highlighting the need to simulate non-adiabatic nuclear dynamics and plasmonic excitations simultaneously. In the future, the combination of methods presented here should help theorists build a mechanistic understanding of plasmon-assisted charge transfer and excitation energy relaxation processes near a nanoparticle or metal surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soft X-ray Emission Spectroscopy of Phosphorus Compounds for Energy Conversion and Storage

Phosphorus (P) is a ubiquitous component of materials for energy conversion and storage. Despite the effectiveness of soft X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) to characterize these complex materials, XES studies of P-containing compounds are still largely missing. In this investigation, the electronic structure and XES signatures from the P L 2,3 -edge are probed for nine solid-state P-containing compounds characterized by various oxidation states and chemical environments: GaP (3−) , InP (3−) , red-P (0) , H 3 P (3+) O 3 , Na 2 H 2 P 2 (4+) O 6 , H 3 P (5+) O 4 , KH 2 P (5+) O 4 , Na 2 HP (5+) O 4 , and InP (5+) O 4 . The XES spectrum of each material exhibits distinct spectral fingerprints, which provide a robust basis for the speciation of complex P-containing samples. Density functional theory calculations shed light on the electronic structure of selected materials and particularly on the effect of phosphorus-oxygen hybridization. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of P L 2,3 XES spectral fingerprints across a wide range of oxidation states and chemical environments. These data sets and insights pave the way for dedicated future work, such as in situ and operando investigations of P-containing compounds in energy-related applications, where speciation of P compounds is needed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Initial Data Collection Coverage (March - June 2020)

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery, but only at the state level. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a count level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. To keep up, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. The DOE COVID-19 data collection effort resulted in over 11 million data points being collected, covering over 13,000 unique geographies and over 2,000 unique attributes that spanned predominantly from early March through the end of June 2020.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised Machine Learning for Exploratory Data Analysis of Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Abstract Transit spectroscopy is a powerful tool for decoding the chemical compositions of the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. In this paper, we focus on unsupervised techniques for analyzing spectral data from transiting exoplanets. After cleaning and validating the data, we demonstrate methods for: (i) initial exploratory data analysis, based on summary statistics (estimates of location and variability); (ii) exploring and quantifying the existing correlations in the data; (iii) preprocessing and linearly transforming the data to its principal components; (iv) dimensionality reduction and manifold learning; (v) clustering and anomaly detection; and (vi) visualization and interpretation of the data. To illustrate the proposed unsupervised methodology, we use a well-known public benchmark data set of synthetic transit spectra. We show that there is a high degree of correlation in the spectral data, which calls for appropriate low-dimensional representations. We explore a number of different techniques for such dimensionality reduction and identify several suitable options in terms of summary statistics, principal components, etc. We uncover interesting structures in the principal component basis, namely well-defined branches corresponding to different chemical regimes of the underlying atmospheres. We demonstrate that those branches can be successfully recovered with a K-means clustering algorithm in a fully unsupervised fashion. We advocate for lower-dimensional representations of the spectroscopic data in terms of the main principal components, in order to reveal the existing structure in the data and quickly characterize the chemical class of a planet.

Matchev, Konstantin T. (ORCID:0000000341829096)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Motion tomography via occupation kernels

The goal of motion tomography is to recover a description of a vector flow field using measurements along the trajectory of a sensing unit. In this paper, we develop a predictor corrector algorithm designed to recover vector flow fields from trajectory data with the use of occupation kernels developed by Rosenfeld et al. [9,10]. Specifically, we use the occupation kernels as an adaptive basis; that is, the trajectories defining our occupation kernels are iteratively updated to improve the estimation in the next stage. Initial estimates are established, then under mild assumptions, such as relatively straight trajectories, convergence is proven using the Contraction Mapping Theorem. We then compare the developed method with the established method by Chang et al. [5] by defining a set of error metrics. Here, we found that for simulated data, where a ground truth is available, our method offers a marked improvement over [5]. For a real-world example, where ground truth is not available, our results are similar results to the established method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ecologically-Informed Precision Conservation: A framework for increasing biodiversity in intensively managed agricultural landscapes with minimal sacrifice in crop production

Conservation actions are urgently needed to tackle biodiversity loss in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. Production lands are usually heterogeneous and contain low-yield areas that can be set aside for biodiversity conservation without serious yield losses. Here, we introduce Ecologically-Informed Precision Conservation, a framework that integrates yield mapping and ecological theory to select the best areas to create new set-asides while ensuring high crop yields at the farm/landscape level. Long-term yield maps can be generated using globally available satellite data and basic information on field/farm crop yield from farmers. Ecological principles are then used to select the subset of areas with the highest potential for biodiversity conservation by prioritising those that increase connectivity, maximise habitat heterogeneity and decrease landscape grain size. Here, the created non-crop habitats can be permanent and thus ensure biodiversity support over time. In addition, agricultural management efficiency can be enhanced by improving field shapes. The framework provides the basis for a practical, user-friendly tool that informs all interested stakeholders on how to rationalise existing agricultural landscapes using already-existing farming systems and available technologies. High cost-effectiveness from an economic and conservation perspective, along with the creation of heterogeneous non-crop habitats, make our framework a promising solution to re-design agricultural landscapes.

Precision agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2020

A genetic algorithm approach for reconstructing spectral content from filtered x-ray diode array spectrometers

Filtered diode array spectrometers are routinely employed to infer the temporal evolution of spectral power from x-ray sources, but uniquely extracting spectral content from a finite set of broad, spectrally overlapping channel spectral sensitivities is decidedly nontrivial in these under-determined systems. Here, we present the use of genetic algorithms to reconstruct a probabilistic spectral intensity distribution and compare to the traditional approach most commonly found in the literature. Unlike many of the previously published models, spectral reconstructions from this approach are neither limited by basis functional forms nor do they require a priori spectral knowledge. While the original intent of such measurements was to diagnose the temporal evolution of spectral power from quasi-blackbody radiation sources—where the exact details of spectral content were not thought to be crucial—we demonstrate that this new technique can greatly enhance the utility of the diagnostic by providing more physical spectra and improved robustness to hardware configuration for even strongly non-Planckian distributions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid particle-spectral method for kinetic plasma simulations

A hybrid model for numerical solutions of the Vlasov–Poisson equations is presented, which blends spectral and particle approaches. The model splits the distribution function for plasma species into both spectral and particle representations in the velocity space to combine the advantages of each approach. The spectral representation leverages asymmetrically weighted Hermite basis, whereas the particle representation leverages the particle-in-cell method. Configuration phase space is decomposed with the Fourier method, which is well suited for periodic problems. We derive conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy for the proposed combined method. It is shown that the coupling error between the two methods is absent in the semi-discrete setting (not taking into account time discretization). Finally, numerical test cases are presented simulating a weak electron beam interaction with plasma, leading to beam–plasma instability. The initially localized electron beam evolved into a highly non-equilibrium distribution function in the velocity space. A small growth rate and the resonance nature of instability make it difficult to obtain accurate solutions for purely particle methods due to noise, which falls as ∼1/Np with a number of particles. At the same time, purely spectral methods may require a large number of modes to capture the highly non-equilibrium state of the evolved beam. We show that the hybrid method is well suited for such problems: it reproduces the linear stage as well as nonlinear dynamics with sufficient accuracy using a highly non-equilibrium distribution function.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid particle-spectral method for kinetic plasma simulations

A hybrid model for numerical solutions of the Vlasov–Poisson equations is presented, which blends spectral and particle approaches. The model splits the distribution function for plasma species into both spectral and particle representations in the velocity space to combine the advantages of each approach. The spectral representation leverages asymmetrically weighted Hermite basis, whereas the particle representation leverages the particle-in-cell method. Configuration phase space is decomposed with the Fourier method, which is well suited for periodic problems. We derive conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy for the proposed combined method. It is shown that the coupling error between the two methods is absent in the semi-discrete setting (not taking into account time discretization). Finally, numerical test cases are presented simulating a weak electron beam interaction with plasma, leading to beam–plasma instability. The initially localized electron beam evolved into a highly non-equilibrium distribution function in the velocity space. A small growth rate and the resonance nature of instability make it difficult to obtain accurate solutions for purely particle methods due to noise, which falls as ~1/$\sqrt{N_p}$ with a number of particles. At the same time, purely spectral methods may require a large number of modes to capture the highly nonequilibrium state of the evolved beam. We show that the hybrid method is well suited for such problems: it reproduces the linear stage as well as nonlinear dynamics with sufficient accuracy using a highly non-equilibrium distribution function.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS), Task 5.0 Deliverable: Infrastructure Assessment Report

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis that is not collocated with prospective storage geology (the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S. in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under explored areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The Project OASIS surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 8 Deliverable 8.0 - Commercialization Plan

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis from industrial facilities that are not collocated with prospective storage geology (i.e., the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S. in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns are required to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under-developed areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province of the Appalachian Fold and Thrust Belt occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Station Equipment Performance Device (HD HyStEP) Specifications and Design Considerations

The original Hydrogen Station Equipment Performance (HyStEP) device was commissioned in 2015 and was critical for the rapid validation of light-duty (LD) hydrogen fueling stations. As applications for hydrogen as a heavy-duty (HD) transportation fuel continue to grow, new heavy-duty stations are being developed to fuel these vehicles that require larger onboard storage tank systems to meet HD transportation demands and drive cycles. The differences in size and geometry from LD vehicles have driven the creation of new hydrogen fueling protocols that will enable safe and economical fueling of HD vehicles. With the new requirements that are set out in HD fueling protocols like SAE J601-5, a new HyStEP-like device is needed to evaluate the capabilities of high-flow hydrogen stations to fuel HD vehicles to the new protocol standard. To create a heavy-duty HyStEP (HD HyStEP) device, an effort has been undertaken to evaluate the requirements that would form the basis for the design of a successful HD HyStEP device. The primary design goal of this HD HyStEP device is its capability of following a test methodology similar to what is outlined in CSA HGV 4.3, which guides the validation of LD fueling dispensers but with adjustments to verify adherence to the HD fueling protocols (SAE J2601-5) for 70 MPa and 35 MPa pressure class vehicles rather than the LD fueling protocols (SAE J2601). The design presented here aims to provide information that enables the creation of an HD HyStEP device that achieves the primary design goal while being informed by the years of experience from the current HyStEP operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Complete set of bound negative-parity states in the neutron-rich nucleus 18 N

High-resolution γ -ray spectroscopy of N 18 is performed with the Advanced GAmma Tracking Array, following deep-inelastic processes induced by an O 18 beam on a Ta 181 target. Six states are newly identified, which together with the three known excitations exhaust all negative-parity excited states expected in N 18 below the neutron threshold. Spin and parities are proposed for all located states on the basis of decay branchings and comparison with large-scale shell-model calculations performed in the p-sd space, with the YSOX interaction. Of particular interest is the location of the 0 1 - and 1 2 - excitations, which provide strong constrains for cross-shell p-sd matrix elements based on realistic interactions and help to simultaneously reproduce the ground and first-excited states in N 16 and N 18 , for the first time. Overall, understanding the N 18 structure may also have significant impact on neutron-capture cross-section calculations in r-process modeling including light neutron-rich nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design considerations for gallium arsenide pulse compression photoconductive switch

In this paper, we present the physics and design-space exploration of a novel pulse compression photoconductive switch (PCPS) using semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) operating in the negative differential mobility (NDM) regime of electron transport. We systematically quantify the relationship between the PCPS performance and various design options, including contact separation, laser energy and placement, and trap dynamics. Specifically, we report the full-width at half-maximum and the peak output current generated by the PCPS as a function of applied electrical and optical bias. We discuss the optimal spacing between the electrodes and the distance of the laser spot to the anode to achieve higher electron confinement and superior radio-frequency (RF) metrics. Reducing the laser energy is important to prevent the appearance of secondary peaks due to diffusive transport, but there exists a trade-off between the bandwidth and the maximum current of the PCPS. We also compare the PCPS response with and without trap dynamics and find that the electrostatic screening from the trap-induced space charge is time-independent when the trapping time constant is set larger than the recombination lifetime. Overall, trap dynamics are detrimental to performance, unless the compensation doping scheme to achieve semi-insulating GaAs is carefully selected. Results presented in this paper can be used by experimentalists to fine-tune the PCPS design parameters to meet the specifications of various RF applications. Moreover, our results will provide a strong theoretical basis to the measurements of PCPS devices using GaAs and other NDM materials under investigation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Peripheral positions encode transport specificity in the small multidrug resistance exporters

In secondary active transporters, a relatively limited set of protein folds have evolved diverse solute transport functions. Because of the conformational changes inherent to transport, altering substrate specificity typically involves remodeling the entire structural landscape, limiting our understanding of how novel substrate specificities evolve. In the current work, we examine a structurally minimalist family of model transport proteins, the small multidrug resistance (SMR) transporters, to understand the molecular basis for the emergence of a novel substrate specificity. We engineer a selective SMR protein to promiscuously export quaternary ammonium antiseptics, similar to the activity of a clade of multidrug exporters in this family. Using combinatorial mutagenesis and deep sequencing, we identify the necessary and sufficient molecular determinants of this engineered activity. Using X-ray crystallography, solid-supported membrane electrophysiology, binding assays, and a proteoliposome-based quaternary ammonium antiseptic transport assay that we developed, we dissect the mechanistic contributions of these residues to substrate polyspecificity. We find that substrate preference changes not through modification of the residues that directly interact with the substrate but through mutations peripheral to the binding pocket. Our work provides molecular insight into substrate promiscuity among the SMRs and can be applied to understand multidrug export and the evolution of novel transport functions more generally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗