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At least 793 records · Page 44

Principles for Integrating Mars Analog Science, Operations, and Technology Research

During the Apollo program, the scientific community and NASA used terrestrial analog sites for understanding planetary features and for training astronauts to be scientists. Human factors studies (Harrison, Clearwater, & McKay 1991; Stuster 1996) have focused on the effects of isolation in extreme environments. More recently, with the advent of wireless computing, we have prototyped advanced EVA technologies for navigation, scheduling, and science data logging (Clancey 2002b; Clancey et al., in press). Combining these interests in a single expedition enables tremendous synergy and authenticity, as pioneered by Pascal Lee's Haughton-Mars Project (Lee 2001; Clancey 2000a) and the Mars Society s research stations on a crater rim on Devon Island in the High Canadian Arctic (Clancey 2000b; 2001b) and the Morrison Formation of southeast Utah (Clancey 2002a). Based on this experience, the following principles are proposed for conducting an integrated science, operations, and technology research program at analog sites: 1) Authentic work; 2) PI-based projects; 3) Unencumbered baseline studies; 4) Closed simulations; and 5) Observation and documentation. Following these principles, we have been integrating field science, operations research, and technology development at analog sites on Devon Island and in Utah over the past five years. Analytic methods include work practice simulation (Clancey 2002c; Sierhuis et a]., 2000a;b), by which the interaction of human behavior, facilities, geography, tools, and procedures are formalized in computer models. These models are then converted into the runtime EVA system we call mobile agents (Clancey 2002b; Clancey et al., in press). Furthermore, we have found that the Apollo Lunar Surface Journal (Jones, 1999) provides a vast repository or understanding astronaut and CapCom interactions, serving as a baseline for Mars operations and quickly highlighting opportunities for computer automation (Clancey, in press).

Clancey, William J.↗

Designing Control System Application Software for Change

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) was used to design the Environmental Systems Test Stand (ESTS) control system software. The UML was chosen for its ability to facilitate a clear dialog between software designer and customer, from which requirements are discovered and documented in a manner which transposes directly to program objects. Applying the UML to control system software design has resulted in a baseline set of documents from which change and effort of that change can be accurately measured. As the Environmental Systems Test Stand evolves, accurate estimates of the time and effort required to change the control system software will be made. Accurate quantification of the cost of software change can be before implementation, improving schedule and budget accuracy.

Boulanger, Richard↗

Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability

A planning workshop on "Modeling, Simulation and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability" was held in June 2003. This workshop was the first of a number of meetings planned to follow the NASA-sponsored workshop entitled "Prospects For Improved Forecasts Of Weather And Short-Term Climate Variability On Sub-Seasonal Time Scales" that was held April 2002. The 2002 workshop highlighted a number of key sources of unrealized predictability on subseasonal time scales including tropical heating, soil wetness, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) [a.k.a Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. The overarching objective of the 2003 follow-up workshop was to proceed with a number of recommendations made from the 2002 workshop, as well as to set an agenda and collate efforts in the areas of modeling, simulation and forecasting intraseasonal and short-term climate variability. More specifically, the aims of the 2003 workshop were to: 1) develop a baseline of the "state of the art" in subseasonal prediction capabilities, 2) implement a program to carry out experimental subseasonal forecasts, and 3) develop strategies for tapping the above sources of predictability by focusing research, model development, and the development/acquisition of new observations on the subseasonal problem. The workshop was held over two days and was attended by over 80 scientists, modelers, forecasters and agency personnel. The agenda of the workshop focused on issues related to the MJO and tropicalextratropical interactions as they relate to the subseasonal simulation and prediction problem. This included the development of plans for a coordinated set of GCM hindcast experiments to assess current model subseasonal prediction capabilities and shortcomings, an emphasis on developing a strategy to rectify shortcomings associated with tropical intraseasonal variability, namely diabatic processes, and continuing the implementation of an experimental forecast and model development program that focuses on one of the key sources of untapped predictability, namely the MJO. The tangible outcomes of the meeting included: 1) the development of a recommended framework for a set of multi-year ensembles of 45-day hindcasts to be carried out by a number of GCMs so that they can be analyzed in regards to their representations of subseasonal variability, predictability and forecast skill, 2) an assessment of the present status of GCM representations of the MJO and recommendations for future steps to take in order to remedy the remaining shortcomings in these representations, and 3) a final implementation plan for a multi-institute/multi-nation Experimental MJO Prediction Program.

Waliser, Duane↗

The Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope

This slide presentation reviews the Gamma Ray Astronomy as enhanced by the Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope and Radio Astronomy as a synergistic relationship. Gamma rays often represent a significant part of the energy budget of a source; therefore, gamma-ray studies can be critical to understanding physical processes in such sources. Radio observations offer timing and spatial resolutions vastly superior to anything possible with gamma-ray telescopes; therefore radio is often the key to understanding source structure. Gamma-ray and radio observations can complement each other, making a great team. It reviews the Fermi Guest Investigator (GI) program, and calls for more cooperative work that involves Fermi and the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), a system of ten radio telescopes.

Thompson, Dave↗

Relative Throughput of the Near-IR Science Instruments for the James Webb Space Telescope as Measured During Ground Testing the Integrated Science Instrument Module

Data were obtained for the purpose of measuring the relative throughput of the Near-IR Science Instruments (SIs) of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) as part of the second and third cryogenic-vacuum tests (CV2CV3) of the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) conducted at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in 2014 and 20152016, at the beginning and end of the environmental test program, respectively. This Poster focuses on data obtained as part of the Initial Optical Baseline and as part of the Final Performance test -- two epochs that roughly bracket the CV3 test. The purpose of the test is to trend relative throughput to monitor for any potential changes from gross problems such as contamination or degradation of an optical element. Point source data were taken at a variety of wavelengths for NIRCam Module A and Module B, NIRSpec, NIRISS, Guider 1 and Guider 2 using the Laser Diode (LD) 1.06 micron, LD 1.55 micron, 2.1 micron LED and 3.5 micron LED, as well as for NIRCam Mod A and B and NIRISS using a tungsten source and the F277W, and F480M filters. Spectra were taken using the G140M, G235M, and G395M gratings for NIRSpec, the GRISMR grism for NIRCam Mod A and B and the GR150C grism for NIRISS. The results of these measurements are compared to what would be expected given the efficiency of each of the optical elements in each SI. Although these data were taken as a check against gross problems, they can also be used to provide the first relative throughput estimate for each SI through the various filters source wavelengths measured in their flight-like configurations.

technology development↗

Experimental Considerations in Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Measurements

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments, which are among the largest neutrino experiments in the world, have extensive physics programs to make precision measurements of three-flavor oscillation parameters, search for physics beyond the Standard Model, and study neutrinos from astrophysical sources. In this article, experimental considerations, including oscillation phenomenology, detector and experiment design, and analysis strategies, are described, with a focus on the three-flavor oscillation measurements. Current and future experiments are discussed, and significant sources of systematic uncertainty, along with mitigation strategies, are emphasized as control of systematic uncertainty is critical for success in precise measurement of long-baseline oscillation parameters. This article is structured as a primer for those new to this area of experimental work.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

In late fiscal year 2020, the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project began the process of formulating an investment strategy to support development of the technologies required for a high-power (megawatt-class) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system capable of performing human-scale missions. This activity was initiated concurrent with several high-level studies and assessments were either under way or had just concluded. Studies of human-scale Mars missions have been performed several times over the past two decades. One of the most recent studies examined opposition-class human Mars missions to occur in the late 2030s timeframe [1,2]. The mission architecture assumed a hybrid NEP/chem-propelled vehicle that used a high specific impulse (Isp) NEP-system and a liquid oxygen (LOx)-liquid methane high thrust chemical stage (two 110 kN (25 klbf) thrust, 365 s Isp engines) for maneuvers performed to enter and exit gravity wells. Trajectory analyses performed in this study showed that such a mission could be performed with 2-4 MWe directed into the electric propulsion system (operating for 20,000+ hours), with the large range representing different opposition-class Mars mission opportunities and permutations on the trajectory design, concept of operations, and technology choices. In 2020, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) performed a study to evaluate the maturity of the different technologies required for nuclear propulsion systems [3]. The executive summary of this report provided the following top-level conclusions: • “The majority of critical technologies for… NEP/Chem… systems are relatively immature” • “TRLs [technology readiness levels] in the literature are often overestimated” • “The majority of critical technologies… for NEP/Chem… systems are at a relatively high level of advancement degree of difficulty (AD2 > 4) for maturation, requiring a dual development approach” • “The proper assessment of baseline TRL and AD2 values and the estimation of requirements and resources required for advancement have been consistent issues for NEP,” • “Non-advocate reviews should occur at the start of a technology program and at all key milestones.” In 2021, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) issued a separate report [4] identifying the “primary technical and programmatic challenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission.” That work contained several important findings, including: • “Developing a MWe-class NEP system for the baseline mission would require increasing power by orders of magnitude relative to NEP system flight- or ground-based technology demonstrations completed to date.” • “Subscale in-space flight testing of NEP systems cannot address many of the risks and potential failure modes associated with the baseline mission NEP system. With sufficient M&S [modeling & simulation] and ground testing, including modular subsystem tests at full scale and power, flight qualification requirements can be met by the cargo missions that will precede the first crewed mission to Mars. Fully integrated ground testing may not be required.” • “As a result of low and intermittent investment over the past several decades, it is unclear if even an aggressive program would be able to develop an NEP system capable of executing the baseline mission in 2039.” These efforts motivated the SNP project to investigate the technologies available for a megawatt-class high power nuclear electric propulsion system. That system is illustrated schematically in Figure 1 and is comprised of five separate top-level critical technology elements (CTEs). 1. Nuclear Reactor – Thermal power source for the system, utilizing high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) as the nuclear fuel. Reactor radiation shielding is also included in this CTE. 2. Power Conversion – Operates as a thermodynamic cycle, accepting nuclear reactor thermal power as an input and converting it to mechanical power. 3. Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) – Accepts as an input mechanical power from the power conversion system, which is used to generate electrical power. The PMAD system also distributes the generated electrical power to all other parts of the spacecraft, including the high-power EP system. The PMAD system may also perform duties such as isolation, fault detection, and power transformation/rectification for different spacecraft systems, including the thrusters. 4. Electric Propulsion (EP) – Accepts as an input electrical power, which is used to accelerate a propellant to high speeds to produce thrust. This system includes the power processing unit (PPU), which converts the power it receives to the correct current and voltage required by the thrusters, and the propellant storage and feed systems, which contain and meter the flow of propellant to the thrusters. 5. Thermal Management (Radiators/Heat Rejection) – The cold side of the thermodynamic power conversion cycle, accepts thermal power from the power conversion system and radiatively rejects that heat to space. In this paper, we describe the SNP project formulation and investment strategy that aims to accomplish the research and development required to advance the technology readiness for each CTE. The strategy relies heavily upon experimental testing supported by modeling and simulation to yield realistic assessments of the technologies, which in turn will be used to inform future NEP system-level design decisions and any potential technology downselects.

Kurt A Polzin↗

AMiBA: cluster Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect observations with the expanded 13-element array

The Yuan-Tseh Lee Array for Microwave Background Anisotropy (AMiBA) is a co-planar interferometer array operating at a wavelength of 3 mm to measure the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect (SZE) of galaxy clusters at arcminute scales. The first phase of operation—with a compact 7-element array with 0.6 m antennas (AMiBA-7)—observed six clusters at angular scales from 5{sup ′} to 23{sup ′}. Here, we describe the expansion of AMiBA to a 13-element array with 1.2 m antennas (AMiBA-13), its subsequent commissioning, and cluster SZE observing program. The most noticeable changes compared to AMiBA-7 are (1) array re-configuration with baselines ranging from 1.4 m to 4.8 m, allowing us to sample structures between 2{sup ′} and 10{sup ′}, (2) 13 new lightweight carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) 1.2 m reflectors, and (3) additional correlators and six new receivers. Since the reflectors are co-mounted on and distributed over the entire six-meter CFRP platform, a refined hexapod pointing error model and phase error correction scheme have been developed for AMiBA-13. These effects—entirely negligible for the earlier central close-packed AMiBA-7 configuration—can lead to additional geometrical delays during observations. Our correction scheme recovers at least 80 ± 5% of the point-source fluxes. We, therefore, apply an upward correcting factor of 1.25 to our visibilities to correct for phase decoherence, and a ±5% systematic uncertainty is added in quadrature with our statistical errors. We demonstrate the absence of further systematics with a noise level consistent with zero in stacked uv-visibilities. From the AMiBA-13 SZE observing program, we present here maps of a subset of 12 clusters with signal-to-noise ratios above five. We demonstrate combining AMiBA-7 with AMiBA-13 observations on Abell 1689, by jointly fitting their data to a generalized Navarro–Frenk–White model. Our cylindrically integrated Compton-y values for five radii are consistent with results from the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Array, the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Array, and the Planck Observatory. We also report the first targeted SZE detection toward the optically selected cluster RCS J1447+0828, and we demonstrate the ability of AMiBA SZE data to serve as a proxy for the total cluster mass. Finally, we show that our AMiBA-SZE derived cluster masses are consistent with recent lensing mass measurements in the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strengthening Retrofit Markets for Comprehensive Savings in Multifamily Buildings (Interim Final Report)

Energy efficiency is vitally important in Maine. Nearly 70% of Maine households rely on fuel oil as their primary energy source for home heating, a higher share than in any other state. Coupled with the state's long, cold winters, Maine's dependence on oil renders homeowners particularly vulnerable to fluctuating fuel costs. With $\$$4.5 million in seed funding from the Energy Department's Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, the Governor's Energy Office (GEO), through Efficiency Maine Trust (the Trust), is spurring Maine landlords to lower their monthly energy bills and improve comfort for their tenants during the state's cold winter months and increasingly warmer summers. Maine's aging multifamily housing stock can be expensive to heat and costly to maintain. It is not unusual to find buildings with little or no insulation, drafty windows, and significant air leaks, making them ideal candidates for energy efficiency upgrades. Maine modeled its Multifamily Efficiency Program (MEP) after the state's highly successful Home Energy Savings Program (HESP) for single-family homes. HESP provided cash incentives and financing opportunities to owners of one-to four-unit structures, which resulted in thousands of energy assessments and whole-house energy upgrades in 225 communities. Maine's new MEP multifamily energy efficiency upgrade and weatherization initiative focuses on small to medium-sized (i.e., five to 20 units) apartment buildings. The program's energy efficiency upgrades will provide at least 20% energy savings for each upgraded multifamily unit. The Trust’s MEP relies on a network of approved program partners who help move projects through the pipeline from assessment to upgrade. MEP has two components: benchmarking and development of an Energy Reduction Plan (ERP). Using the ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool, MEP provides an assessment of current energy usage in the building, establishes a baseline for future energy efficiency improvements, and enables tracking and monitoring of future energy usage at the building— all at no cost to the building owner. The ERP is developed by a program partner using either the Trust’s approved modeling or prescriptive tools; it provides detailed information about the current energy related conditions in the building and recommends energy efficiency, health, and safety improvements. The Trust's delivery contractor provides quality assurance and controls throughout the process. Through this effort, MEP's goal is to establish a self-sustaining, market-driven program, demonstrating the value of energy efficiency to other building owners. The increasing value of properties across the state will help incentivize these owners to continue upgrades after the grant period has ended. Targeting urban areas in Maine with dense clusters of multifamily units—such as Portland, Lewiston- Auburn, Bangor, and Augusta—MEP engaged a variety of stakeholder groups early on to design its multifamily program. Through direct emails and its website, program officials invited lending institutions, building professionals, engineering firms, equipment distributors, and local property owners associations to attend open meetings around the state to learn about the goals of the multifamily program and to help define its parameters. These meetings helped program administrators understand the diversity of the customer base: some owners are individuals with a single building, while other owners are groups of people or management companies with an entire portfolio of multifamily buildings. The diversity of the customer base notwithstanding, owners see MEP as an opportunity to make gains in their respective properties. Consistently high turnouts at stakeholder meetings fueled greater customer interest as awareness of the program spread through word of mouth. The program also gained traction by utilizing the program partner networks and building on the legacy of the Trust’s successful HESP for single-family residences. MEP offers significant incentives for building owners to participate in the upgrade program. Wholebuilding benchmarking services are available to most multifamily housing buildings free of charge. The service provides the building owner with an assessment of the building's current energy efficiency as compared to other multifamily buildings on a national scale, establishes a baseline to measure future improvements, and enables owners to track monthly energy consumption using the ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager. Once the benchmarking process is complete, the program links building owners with approved program partners (e.g., energy professionals, home performance contractors) to identify and implement specific energy-saving opportunities in the building. Program partners can also provide project quotes with estimated financing incentives and payback period calculations that enable building owners to make informed decisions. What's more, the Trust provides two financial incentives for successful completion of program milestones. The first is a per-unit incentive for completion of an approved ERP (i.e., $\$$100 per unit if a prescriptive path is followed, and $\$$200 per unit for a modeled ERP). Upon final inspection of the installed project scope of work, an incentive of $\$$1,400 per unit or 50% of installed cost—whichever is less—is paid. The Trust originally established a $\$$1 million loan-loss reserve fund (LLRF) to further enhance financing opportunities for qualified multifamily building owners. This funding mechanism was designed to connect building owners with lenders that retain the mortgages for their properties and encourages the lenders to offer financing for energy efficiency improvements. However, there has been no interest in the LLRF and therefore the LLRF has been reduced. Ultimately, MEP plans to build an online tool for building owners to assess opportunities to make upgrades in their multifamily units. The tool will include a performance rating system to provide a way for building owners to more easily understand energy use in their building, and how it could be improved with energy efficiency upgrades. Prospective tenants will also be able to use the rating system to make informed decisions about where to rent. Furthermore, the rating can be incorporated into real estate listings as a way for prospective home buyers and the real estate financial community to evaluate a home's operating costs. The Trust’s MEP has identified the state's most experienced energy professionals, vendors, suppliers, and contractors that install energy efficiency equipment in the multifamily sector to be qualified program partners. To be eligible for partnership, energy assessment professionals and contractors are required to have demonstrated experience in the multifamily sector and hold associated professional certifications, such as Building Operator Certification (BOC), Certified Energy Manager (CEM), Professional Engineer (PE), or Building Performance Institute (BPI) Multifamily Building Analyst. Widespread program interest has enabled the Trust to redirect funds that might otherwise be needed for program promotion to building capacity through contractor training. In addition to boosting professional training and certification opportunities, MEP teaches its partners how to market the multifamily program to prospective multifamily homeowners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Space Station Freedom on-orbit crew time availability - A limited resource

Because of the enormity, complexity, and duration of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) project, the available crew time is at a premium. This paper discusses the methodology for determining, early in the program, estimates of crew time which will be available within pressurized areas of intravehicular activity, from the First Element Launch (FEL) throughout the lifetime of the SSF. The methodology utilizes the baseline assembly sequence (November 1989) as a guideline. The total hours provided are categorized by periods, where a period is comprised of the time between two major SSF Program assembly milestones; e.g., FEL to Man Tended Capability (MTS), MTS to Permanently Manned Capability (PMC), or PMC to Assembly Complete (AC). After AC, total available crew time is presented on a yearly basis.

Garegnani, Jerry J.↗

Lunar Human Research Requirements (LHRR)

Biomedical research will be conducted during transit and on the surface of the Moon to prepare for extended stays on the Moon and to prepare for the exploration of Mars. The objective of the Human Research Program (HRP) is to preserve the health and enhance performance of astronaut explorers. Specific objectives of the HRP include developing the knowledge, capabilities, and necessary countermeasures and technologies in support of human space exploration; focusing on mitigating the highest risks to crew health and performance; and defining and improving human spaceflight medical, environmental, behavioral, and human factors standards. This document contains a detailed description of the resource accommodations, interfaces, and environments to be provided by the Constellation Program (CxP) to support the HRP research in transit and on the lunar surface. Covered, specifically, are the requirements for mass and volume transport; crew availability; ground operations, baseline data collection, and payload processing; power, and data. Volumes and mass are given for transport of conditioned samples only. They do not account for the engineering solution that the Constellation Program will implement (refrigerator/freezer volume/mass). This document does not account for requirements on the Orion vehicle for transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS Program has supplied requirements for this mission.

Denkins, Pamela↗

Residential Building Energy Code Field Study

This document presents a methodology for assessing baseline energy efficiency in new single-family residential buildings and quantifying related savings potential. The approach was developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program with the objective of assisting states as they assess energy efficiency in residential buildings and implementation of their building energy codes, as well as to target areas for improvement through energy codes and broader energy-efficiency programs. It is also intended to facilitate a consistent and replicable approach to research studies of this type and establish a transparent data set to represent baseline construction practices across U.S. states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Perspectives for Measuring Neutrino Cross-Sections at Short Baseline Detectors (ICARUS and DUNE-PRISM-like Detector) and Their Implications for Precision Physics

Neutrino physics is rapidly advancing with current and future experiments promising high-statistics data, enabling unprecedented accuracy in measuring Standard Model (SM) parameters and providing crucial insights into neutrino-nucleus interactions. The ICARUS experiment, utilizing LAr TPC technology, is pivotal in this growth. As the far detector of the SBN program at Fermilab, ICARUS is set to investigate the neutrino anomalies observed in LSND and MiniBooNE and prepare for future long-baseline experiments like DUNE. Positioned along the BNB and 5.75°off-axis from the NuMI beamline, ICARUS benefits from numerous neutrino interactions, allowing for precise neutrino-argon nucleus cross-section measurements, which will benchmark future DUNE measurements. This work presents the prospects and progress in measuring the cross-section of the NuMI νµ CC inclusive channel in the ICARUS experiment. High-statistics data will also enable precise determinations of fundamental parameters like the weak mixing angle and the neutrino charge radius (NCR), crucial for testing the SM and exploring potential new physics. This work includes studies of future near detectors, such as DUNE-PRISM, which are sensitive to radiative corrections in neutrino-electron scattering. The DUNE-PRISM configuration allows for the analysis of different neutrino energy spectra, promising accurate NCR measurements with controlled systematic uncertainties.

Moreno-Granados, Guadalupe↗

Millimeter wave satellite concepts. Volume 1: Executive summary

The objectives of the program were: (1) development of methodology based on the technical requirements of potential services that might be assigned to millimeter wave bands for identifying the viable and appropriate technologies for future NASA millimeter research and development programs, and (2) testing of this methodology with user applications and services. The scope of the program included the entire communications network, both ground and space subsystems. The reports include: (1) cost, weight, and performance models for the subsystems, (2) conceptual design for point-to-point and broadcast communications satellites, (3) analytic relationships between subsystem parameters and an overall link performance, (4) baseline conceptual systems, (5) sensitivity studies, (6) model adjustment analyses, (7) identification of critical technologies and their risks, (8) brief R&D program scenarios for the technologies judged to be moderate or extensive risks.

Hilsen, N. B.↗

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

Development and validation of a diabetes risk score among two populations

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a practical diabetes risk score amongst two heterogenous populations, a working population and a non-working population. Study population 1 (n = 2,089) participated in a large-scale screening program offered to retired workers to discover previously undetected/incipient chronic illness. Study population 2 (n = 3,293) was part of a Colorado worksite wellness program health risk assessment. We assessed the relationship between a continuous diabetes risk score at baseline and development of diabetes in the future using logistic regression. Receiver operating curves and sensitivity/specificity of the models were calculated. Across both study populations, we observed that participants with diabetes at follow-up had higher diabetes risk scores at baseline than participants who did not have diabetes at follow-up. On average, the odds ratio of developing diabetes in the future was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.26–1.50, p < 0.0001) for study population 1 and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.45–1.95, p-value < 0.0001) for study population 2. These findings indicate that the diabetes risk score may be generalizable to diverse individuals, and thus potentially a population level diabetes screening tool. Minimally-invasive diabetes risk scores can aid in the identification of sub-populations of individuals at risk for diabetes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking Demand Flexibility in Commercial Buildings and Flattening the Duck – Addressing Baseline and Commissioning Challenges

With the transition from our traditional electric grid to a cleaner grid with renewable power generation, there is a need to enable building loads to be flexible. Load shedding and shifting will be essential for flattening the “Duck” for decarbonization. This paper explored the trend in the timing of DR events as a reflection of the grid’s needs using recent four years of event data from 203 retail stores in 11 states. The events are becoming significantly shorter with 2-hour duration being the most popular; shifting to late afternoon and early evening is another trend beyond California. Benchmarking will be essential for accounting DF as a reliable grid resource. This paper addresses a challenging aspect of benchmarking – inaccuracies in counterfactual baseline methods can introduce significant DF metrics variations in addition to weather and building characteristics related factors. The conventional “10/10” with adjustment baseline method has inherent limitation by design for load shifting applications. Therefore, it is imperative to identify alternative methods. This study compared three hourly regression baseline methods with “10/10” methods using two groups of commercial buildings that participated in DR programs: (1) 121 big-box retail stores, and (2) 11 office buildings in CA. The 14-day hourly outdoor temperature regression method was found to produce least error in the tested datasets and is promising for load shifting. The paper also pointed out that commissioning issues can also be a significant barrier for achieving consistent DF performance, which building managers and utilities should be aware of.

Liu, Jingjing↗