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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LIRA: Probing the Lunar Surface for Resources.

The thermal, compositional and electrical properties of the lunar regolith, such as the triboelectric properties of lunar dust, the volatile content and the thermophysical properties of the polar regolith are essential to understand from a scientific perspective as well as for resource extraction and hazard mitigation. Understanding these properties specifically requires in situ measurement, as these properties are inherent in the ambient environment. With the Lunar In situ Regolith Analyzer (LIRA) we will combine mature surface sensor technologies from previous spacecraft missions (TECP) with new sensors (ClO4- ) and battery capability to achieve a compact in situ analysis package. The surface instrument suite is adapted for lunar conditions from a sensor developed as part of the Microscopy, Electrochemistry, and Conductivity Analyzer (MECA) instrument on the 2007 Mars Phoenix mission, as well as supplemental sensors. • The Thermal and Electrical Conductivity Probe (TECP), flown on MECA/Phoenix, which measures heat capacity, thermal conductivity, electrical resistance, and electrical permittivity between needles inserted into the soil. The TECP also measured atmospheric humidity, a capability that will be retained to search for subsurface H2O ice. The Mars TECP weighed 100-gram and by definition was at TRL 9. The lunar version (LIRA) is TRL 4. • The Perchlorate (ClO4) sensor is based on the fluorescence property of perchlorate (Mg, Fe, Na). We added a light source to excite the perchlorate (ClO4) and a photo diode to collect the emission wavelength. A sun-shade over the photo diode blocks out the ambient light during day light hours. The unifying goal of LIRA is to deliver a complete, integrated experiment suite that investigates properties that must be measured in situ, and provides the capability to power the suite at night or in PSRs, as well as a means to simulate aspects of the diurnal transition by delivering an optical pulse to the surface with intensity comparable to sunlight. We describe the scientific context of LIRA, touching on the electrical state of the near-surface environment, the thermal properties of the undisturbed regolith, and the distribution, geochemistry, and mobility of water. We also address the exploration implications of the work, examining hazards and resources in the context of strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs).

Heather Smith↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Combustion, Soot, and Contrail Formation

The aviation industry stands at a crossroads, facing the dual challenge of meeting the growing global demand for air travel while mitigating its environmental impact. As concerns over climate change intensify, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising solution to reduce the carbon footprint of air travel. The aviation sector has long been recognized as a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) being a primary concern. SAFs, derived from renewable feedstocks such as biomass, waste oils, or synthetic processes, offer a promising avenue for reducing the net carbon emissions associated with aviation. While SAFs have shown potential in lowering CO 2 emissions, the combustion process introduces complexities related to soot particle formation and contrail generation that require comprehensive exploration. These aspects are pivotal not only for their environmental implications but also for their influence on atmospheric climate interactions. As the aviation industry increasingly embraces SAFs to meet sustainability goals, it is imperative to assess their combustion characteristics, unravel the mechanisms of soot formation, and scrutinize the factors influencing contrail development.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration

Space exploration is a risky enterprise. Rockets launch astronauts at enormous speeds into a harsh, unforgiving environment. Spacecraft must withstand the bitter cold of space and the blistering heat of reentry. Their skin must be strong enough to keep the inside comfortably pressurized and tough enough to resist damage from micrometeoroids. Spacecraft meant for lunar or planetary landings must survive the jar of landing, tolerate dust, and be able to take off again. For astronauts, however, there is one danger in space that does not end when they step out of their spacecraft. The radiation that permeates space -- unattenuated by Earth s atmosphere and magnetosphere -- may damage or kill cells within astronauts bodies, resulting in cancer or other health consequences years after a mission ends. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently embarked on Project Constellation to implement the Vision for Space Exploration -- a program announced by President George W. Bush in 2004 with the goal of returning humans to the Moon and eventually transporting them to Mars. To adequately prepare for the safety of these future space explorers, NASA s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate requested that the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Research Council establish a committee to evaluate the radiation shielding requirements for lunar missions and to recommend a strategic plan for developing the radiation mitigation capabilities needed to enable the planned lunar mission architecture

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementing the 3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) Heat Shield for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV)

he Mars Sample Return (MSR)Program will return Martian soil samples to Earth in the early 2030s. Since the biological content of these samples is unknown, and potentially upsetting to Earth’s biosphere, the Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is required to be the most reliable entry probe ever devised. Entering Earth’s atmosphere at ~12 km/s, after up to a 6-day in-space free flight phase, the EEV must tolerate the cis-lunar Micro-Meteoroid environment, the near-Earth Orbital debris environment, and then entry heating of over 3,000 W/cm2 and pressures of250 kPa before ballistically impacting Earth’s surface at nearly 45 m/s. To reliably accomplish such a mission, NASA Ames is implementing the 3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) Heat Shield, derived from the prior Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments(HEEET) material system [1]. 3MDCP development accomplishments to date, along with the future efforts to deliver the flight hardware are presented, along with a discussion of the manufacturing risks and accompanying mitigations achieved.

J C Vander Kam↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From CMS to the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center – Improved Tracking of Recent Changes in Co 2 and Ch 4 From NASA’s Quasi-Operational Modeling Systems

Reliable, low latency delivery of high quality global flux and concentration information is a growing but still unmet need to advance expanding measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification efforts that underpin federal climate mitigation strategies. Here we present on progress toward developing space-based greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring systems that can provide comprehensive information trailing real time by a matter of weeks to a few months. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO 2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO 2 ) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO 2 mixing ratio. When observations are unavailable, concentration fields are further informed by observationally-informed bottom-up flux packages that incorporate remotely sensed fire, nighttime lights, and vegetation observations combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of these datasets supports evaluation with independent aircraft data to improve confidence in satellite data, development of new regional modeling approaches, and quantification of the climate impacts of GHGs. The system has recently been expanded to assimilate XCH 4 from ESA’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument and is supported by companion efforts to improve delivery of estimates of bottom-up land and ocean fluxes. The quasi-operational GEOS-GHG system is contributing to the recently announced U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center (GHG Center) by delivering information on recent changes in CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and concentrations to support stakeholder and research communities. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the current system configured to support the GHG Center. We highlight examples of how this data contributes to broader NASA initiatives including the Earth Information Center, an innovative virtual and physical exhibit designed to show how NASA data helps the nation combat climate change. We conclude by discussing how innovations in CMS research can address remaining data gaps and modeling challenges to advance operational GHG monitoring in the future.

Lesley Ott↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dual promotional effect of doping tantalum (Ta) in atomically dispersed Ru/CeO 2 catalyst toward CO 2 methanation: Enhanced associative adsorption of CO 2 and activation of H 2

Precisely controlling the product selectivity in CO 2 hydrogenation through rational catalyst design presents a promising approach to mitigate environmental and energy-related challenges, though it remains a significant scientific hurdle. Herein, the CH 4 selectivity of 0.5 wt% Ru loaded catalysts at 250 °C was effectively shifted from approximately 35 % to 100 % through the incorporation of Ta dopant into the CeO 2 support. The EXAFS spectra in conjunction with CO DRIFTS experiment indicated the presence of atomically dispersed Ru particles anchored on the Ta-doped CeO 2 surface. A higher oxidized CeO 2 surface was evidenced in the presence of Ta dopant. The presence of Ta dopant also improved the dispersion of Ru species and their interaction with the support. Most importantly, the Ru/Ta-CeO 2 catalyst exhibited a pronounced capacity for associative CO 2 -adsorption under atmospheric pressure at 50 °C. An improved H 2 activation was also observed under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. This novel finding of the dual promotional effect of Ta carries a significant impact in the field of CO 2 capture and utilization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evidence Report: Risk of Hypobaric Hypoxia from the Exploration Atmosphere

Extravehicular activity (EVA) is at the core of a manned space exploration program. Some elements of exploration may be safely and effectively performed by robots, but certain critical elements will require the trained, assertive, and reasoning mind of a human crewmember. To effectively use these skills, NASA needs a safe, effective, and efficient EVA component integrated into the human exploration program. The EVA preparation time should be minimized and the suit pressure should be low to accommodate EVA tasks without causing undue fatigue, physical discomfort, or suit-related trauma. Commissioned in 2005, the Exploration Atmospheres Working Group (EAWG) had the primary goal of recommending to NASA an internal environment that allowed efficient and repetitive EVAs for missions that were to be enabled by the former Constellation Program. At the conclusion of the EAWG meeting, the 8.0 psia and 32% oxygen (O2) environment were recommended for EVA-intensive phases of missions. After re-evaluation in 2012, the 8/32 environment was altered to 8.2 psia and 34% O2 to reduce the hypoxic stress to a crewmember. These two small changes increase alveolar O2 pressure by 11 mmHg, which is expected to significantly benefit crewmembers. The 8.2/34 environment (inspired O2 pressure = 128 mmHg) is also physiologically equivalent to the staged decompression atmosphere of 10.2 psia / 26.5% O2 (inspired O2 pressure = 127 mmHg) used on 34 different shuttle missions for approximately a week each flight. As a result of selecting this internal environment, NASA gains the capability for efficient EVA with low risk of decompression sickness (DCS), but not without incurring the additional negative stimulus of hypobaric hypoxia to the already physiologically challenging spaceflight environment. This report provides a review of the human health and performance risks associated with the use of the 8.2 psia / 34% O2 environment during spaceflight. Of most concern are the potential effects on the central nervous system (CNS), including increased intracranial pressure, visual impairment, sensorimotor dysfunction, and oxidative damage. Other areas of focus include validation of the DCS mitigation strategy, incidence and treatment of transient acute mountain sickness (AMS), development of new exercise countermeasure protocols, effective food preparation at 8.2 psia, assurance of quality sleep, and prevention of suit-induced injury. Although missions proposing to use an 8.2/34 environment are still years away, it is recommended that these studies begin early enough to ensure that the correct decisions pertaining to vehicle design, mission operational concepts, and human health countermeasures are appropriately informed.

Norcross, Jason R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Arneth, A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential use of engineered nanoparticles in ocean fertilization for large-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

Artificial ocean fertilization (AOF) aims to safely stimulate phytoplankton growth in the ocean and enhance carbon sequestration. AOF carbon sequestration efficiency appears lower than natural ocean fertilization processes due mainly to the low bioavailability of added nutrients, along with low export rates of AOF-produced biomass to the deep ocean. Here we explore the potential application of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) to overcome these issues. Data from 123 studies show that some ENPs may enhance phytoplankton growth at concentrations below those likely to be toxic in marine ecosystems. ENPs may also increase bloom lifetime, boost phytoplankton aggregation and carbon export, and address secondary limiting factors in AOF. Life-cycle assessment and cost analyses suggest that net CO 2 capture is possible for iron, SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 ENPs with costs of 2–5 times that of conventional AOF, whereas boosting AOF efficiency by ENPs should substantially enhance net CO 2 capture and reduce these costs. Therefore, ENP-based AOF can be an important component of the mitigation strategy to limit global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Results of Lunar Impact Observations During Geminid Meteor Shower Events

Meteoroids are natural particles with origins from comets, asteroids, and planets from within the solar system. On average, 33 metric tons (73,000 lb) of meteoroids hit Earth everyday with velocities ranging between 20 and 72 km/s. However, the vast majority of these meteoroids disintegrate in the atmosphere and never make it to the ground. The Moon also encounters the same meteoroid flux, but has no atmosphere to stop them from striking the surface. At such speeds even a small meteoroid has incredible energy. A meteoroid with a mass of only 5 kg can excavate a crater over 9 m across, hurling 75 metric tons (165,000 lb) of lunar soil and rock on ballistic trajectories above the lunar surface. Meteoroids with particle sizes as small as 100 micrometer (1 Microgram) can do considerable damage to spacecraft in Earth's orbit and beyond. Impacts can damage thermal protection systems, radiators, windows, and pressurized containers. Secondary effects might include partial penetration or pitting, local deformation, and surface degradation that can cause a failure upon reentry. The speed, mass, density, and flux of meteoroids are important factors for design considerations and mitigation during operations. Lunar operations (unmanned and manned) are also adversely affected by the meteoroid flux. Ejecta from meteoroid impacts is also part of the lunar environment and must be characterized. Understanding meteoroid fluxes and the associated risk of meteoroids impacting spacecraft traveling in and beyond Earth's orbit is the objective of the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). One of the MEO's programs is meteoroid impact monitoring of the Moon. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk provides statistically significant counts of meteoroids that can provide useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. This information is not only important for characterizing the lunar environment associated with larger lunar impactors, but also provides statistical data for verification and improving meteoroid prediction models. Current meteoroid models indicate that the Moon is struck by a sporadic meteoroid with a mass greater than 1 kg over 260 times per year. This number is very uncertain since observations for objects in this mass range are few. Factors of several times, higher or lower, are easily possible. Meteor showers are also present to varying degrees at certain times of the year. The Earth experiences meteor showers when encountering the debris left behind by comets, which is also the case with 2 the Moon. During such times, the rate of shower meteoroids can greatly exceed that of the sporadic background rate for larger meteoroids. Looking for meteor shower impacts on the Moon at about the same time as they occur on Earth will yield important data that can be fed into meteor shower forecasting models, which can then be used to predict times of greater meteoroid hazard on the Moon. The Geminids are one such meteor shower of interest. The Geminids are a major meteor shower that occur in December with a peak intensity occurring usually during the 13th and 14th of the month and appearing to come from a radiant in the constellation Gemini. The Geminids are interesting in that the parent body of the debris stream is an asteroid, which along with the Quadrantids, are the only major meteor showers not originating from a comet. The Geminids parent body, 3200 Phaethon, is about 5 km in diameter and has an orbit that has a 22deg inclination which intersects the main asteroid belt and has a perihelion less than half of Mercury's perihelion distance. Thus, its orbit crosses those of Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury. The Geminid debris stream is by far the most massive as compared to the others. When the Earth passes through the stream in mid-December, a peak intensity of approx. equal 120 meteors per hour can be seen. Because of the Geminids' relatively large intensity and unique origin, it is important to monitor and gain information about the Geminids so as to improve their forecasts and understand their contribution to the meteoroid environment in Earth's orbit and at the Moon. It is the purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM) to document two lunar observing periods coinciding with the Geminid meteor showers that occurred in 2006 and 2010.

Suggs, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

And the Humans Save the Day or Maybe They Ruin It: The Importance of Humans in the Loop

Flying a mission in space requires a massive commitment of resources, and without the talent and commitment of the people involved in this effort we would never leave the atmosphere of Earth. When we use the phrase "humans in the loop", it could apply to almost any endeavor since everything starts with humans developing a concept, completing the design process, building or implementing a product and using the product to achieve a goal or purpose. Narrowing the focus to spaceflights, there are a variety of individuals involved throughout the preparations for flight and the flight itself. All of the humans involved add value and support for program success. The purpose of this paper focuses on how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) accounts for the human in the loop for potential missions using a technique called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Human actions can increase or decrease the overall risk via initiating events or mitigating them, thus removing the human from the loop doesn't always lower the risk.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Spectral Correlation based Method for mitigating Angular Mismatch Effects in Intercalibration Using a Benchmark Hyperspectral Sensor

The CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission will implement a state-of-the-art intercalibration method for transferring CPF’s in-orbit Système Internationale (SI)-traceable reference to the shortwave channel of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiance Energy System (CERES) and the reflective solar bands of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the NOAA-20 satellite platform with a targeted intercalibration methodology uncertainty of 0.3% (k=1). In order to achieve such a high intercalibration accuracy, the CPF intercalibration measurements to be scheduled need to closely match those from CERES and VIIRS in time, space, angles, and wavelength. Despite’s CPF’s two-axis pointing capability to match its boresight line of sight to that of a target sensor, there will be finite residual differences in angular samplings of the two instruments. The potential angular mismatch between CPF and the target sensors can introduce systematic errors in the intercalibration results, and therefore needs to be corrected using a rigorously designed algorithm. The CPF intercalibration team has been developing a correction method for mitigating the impact of these angular anisotropic effects in the CPF-VIIRS and CPF-CERES intercalibration. The method explores the spectral correlation relationship between the reflected solar radiances from the same surface target that would be measured by CPF at two adjacent angles. Our studies have shown that the spectral information based on CPF measurements can be used to accurately predict the spectral radiance or reflectance difference due to a given mismatch in the viewing and solar geometry. The hyper-spectral information can also be used to provide scene stratification without using any auxiliary data, which is critical to reduce the angular correction uncertainty. The angular correction relationship can be well established using simulated CPF-like top-of-atmosphere spectral radiances observed at all sorts of viewing geometry and solar angles and for different scenes. Intensive radiative transfer simulations have been completed using a state-of-art radiative transfer model developed by the CPF team members. The implementation of the algorithm on high-fidelity event simulation data and the characterization for the angular adjustment uncertainty will be presented.

Wan Wu↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Real-time Identification and Control of Satellite Signal Impairments Solution and Application of the Stratonovich Equation Part 1. Theoretical Development

As satellite communications systems become both more complex and reliant with respect to their operating environment, it has become imperative to be able to identify, during real-time operation, the onset of one or more impairments to the quality of overall communications system integrity. One of the most important aspects to monitor of a satellite link operating within the Earth's atmosphere is the signal fading due to the occurrence of rain and/or phase scintillations. This, of course, must be done in the presence of the associated measurement uncertainty or potentially faulty measurement equipment such as in the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) experiment. In the present work, an approach originally suggested in 1991, and apparently still considered iconoclastic, will be significantly developed and applied to the satellite communications link on which the deleterious composite signal fade is the result of one or many component fade mechanisms. Through the measurement (with the attendant uncertainty or 'error' in the measurement) of such a composite fading satellite signal, it is desired to extract the level of each of the individual fading mechanisms so they can be appropriately mitigated before they impact the overall performance of the communications network. Rather than employing simple-minded deterministic filtering to the real-time fading, the present approach is built around all the models and/or descriptions used to describe the individual fade components, including their dynamic evolution. The latter is usually given by a first-order Langevin equation. This circumstance allows the description of the associated temporal transition probability densities of each of the component processes. By using this description, along with the real-time measurements of the composite fade (along with the measurement errors), one can obtain statistical estimates of the levels of each of the component fading mechanisms as well as their predicted values into the future. This is all accomplished by the use of the well-known Stratonovich integro-differential equation that results from the model of the measured signal fade that is also tailored to adaptively adjust the values of the parameters used in the statistical models of the individual fade mechanisms. Three examples of increasing complexity are addressed and solved for the iterative determination of fade component levels from the measured composite signal fade in the presence of measurement error and, in the last case, with uncertainty in the model parameters.

Countermeasure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs, numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes. These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation over Africa in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.

CMIP6↗