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How Spreadsheets Get Us to Mars and Beyond
Spreadsheets, spreadsheets everywhere and nary a page of documentation. JPL is NASA's prime center for deep space missions. In all of our missions, spreadsheets have played a major role in managing parts lists, managing requirements, monitoring progress, planning budgets, developing the initial concept designs, and providing the backbone of our infrastructure. In this paper we will share our lessons learned in building various spreadsheet intensive systems and applications. Based on our experience in developing and using these various systems we will propose a number of exploratory ideas as to the dimensions of spreadsheet system complexity. In addition, we will share our approaches to documentation, review, and verification of these types of systems.
Simulation Apps Bring Us Closer to Mars
My work with mathematical modeling and computer simulations began in earnest in 1987 when I signed on with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, better known as NASA. At the time I was developing computer simulations to support the design of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal systems for the International Space Station (ISS) life support system. CO2 is a human metabolic waste, produced at a rate of a kilogram per day per crewmember. CO2 must be removed from the crew cabin, as it will quickly become detrimental to crew health. The systems used to remove CO2 are typically based on sorption processes, which include complex interactions of heat transfer, mass transfer, and gas flow through porous media. At this time, there were no commercial options for solving a set of coupled mathematical models such as partial differential equations (PDEs); you either force-fit the physics into a thermal analysis package or wrote your own code, complete with discretization, meshing, and solution algorithms. Unfortunately, coding CO2 removal processes from scratch did not allow an appropriate focus on the challenging yet crucial task of understanding and capturing the underlying physics via appropriate mathematical models. Configuration control was often simply ignored due to tight schedules, resulting in a code that would be quicker for a second party to rewrite than modify. In the early 2000s, I decided to move CO2 removal simulations to a platform with built-in meshing, solvers, and postprocessing capabilities, and that could solve user-defined multiphysics PDEs. The program chosen to meet these needs was COMSOL Multiphysics®. Along with freeing the engineer to focus on the underlying physics, a degree of configuration control was automatically achieved via a consistent user interface, thus allowing COMSOL users to share computer models. My team has developed simulations that are already providing a valuable debugging capability for the ISS CO2 removal system, and will provide guidance in upgrades to that system.
What Does Nature Tell Us About Anthropogenic Aerosol Indirect Effects?
No abstract available
Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps
BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.
Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps
Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. This data has been identified as being useful for determining appropriate occupational surveillance targets and requirements. Colonoscopies in the astronaut corps can be used for: (a) Assessing overall colon health, (b) A point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, (c) Following-up and tracking rates of colorectal cancer and polyps; and (d) Comparison to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, medical screening requirements for the active astronaut corps changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer and decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer.
Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting
Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).
Achieving Sustainability Goals for Urban Coasts in the US Northeast: Research Needs and Challenges
In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.
US Navy Submarine Sea Trial of the NASA Air Quality Monitor
For the past four years, the Air Quality Monitor (AQM) has been the operational instrument for measuring trace volatile organic compounds on the International Space Station (ISS). The key components of the AQM are the inlet preconcentrator, the gas chromatograph (GC), and the differential mobility spectrometer. Most importantly, the AQM operates at atmospheric pressure and uses air as the GC carrier gas, which translates into a small reliable instrument. Onboard ISS there are two AQMs, with different GC columns that detect and quantify 22 compounds. The AQM data contributes valuable information to the assessment of air quality aboard ISS for each crew increment. The U.S. Navy is looking to update its submarine air monitoring suite of instruments, and the success of the AQM on ISS has led to a jointly planned submarine sea trial of a NASA AQM. In addition to the AQM, the Navy is also interested in the Multi-Gas Monitor (MGM), which was successfully flown on ISS as a technology demonstration to measure major constituent gases (oxygen, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and ammonia). A separate paper will present the MGM sea trial results. A prototype AQM, which is virtually identical to the operational AQM, has been readied for the sea trial. Only one AQM will be deployed during the sea trial, but it is sufficient to detect the compounds of interest to the Navy for the purposes of this trial. A significant benefit of the AQM is that runs can be scripted for pre-determined intervals and no crew intervention is required. The data from the sea trial will be compared to archival samples collected prior to and during the trial period. This paper will give a brief overview of the AQM technology and protocols for the submarine trial. After a quick review of the AQM preparation, the main focus of the paper will be on the results of the submarine trial. Of particular interest will be the comparison of the contaminants found in the ISS and submarine atmospheres, as both represent closed environments. In U.K. submarine trials in the early 2000s, the submarine and ISS atmospheres were found to be remarkably similar.
Regional Rates of Young US Forest Growth Estimated From Annual Landsat Disturbance History and IKONOS Stereo Imagery
Forests of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) have been found to be a large contributor to the global atmospheric carbon sink. The magnitude and nature of this sink is still uncertain and recent studies have sought to define the dynamics that control its strength and longevity. The Landsat series of satellites has been a vital resource to understand the long-term changes in land cover that can impact ecosystem function and terrestrial carbonstock. We combine annual Landsat forest disturbance history from 1985 to 2011 with single date IKONOS stereoimagery to estimate the change in young forest canopy height and above ground live dry biomass accumulation for selected sites in the CONUS. Our approach follows an approximately linear growth rate following clearing over short intervals and does not estimate the distinct non-linear growth rate over longer intervals.We produced canopy height models by differencing digital surface models estimated from IKONOS stereo pairs with national elevation data (NED). Correlations between height and biomass were established independently using airborne LiDAR, and then applied to the IKONOS-estimated canopy height models. Graphing current biomass against time since disturbance provided biomass accumulation rates. For 20 study sites distributed across five regions of the CONUS, 19 showed statistically significant recovery trends (p is less than 0.001) with canopy growth from 0.26 m yr-1to 0.73 m yr-1. Above ground live dry biomass (AGB) density accumulation ranged from 1.31 t/ha yr-1 to 12.47 t/ha yr-1. Mean forest AGB accumulationwas 6.31 t/ha yr-1 among all sites with significant growth trends. We evaluated the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to field estimated site index curves of growth, airborne LiDAR data, and independent model predictions of C accumulation. Growth estimates found with this approach are consistent with site index curves and total biomass estimates fall within the range of field estimates. This is aviable approach to estimate forest biomass accumulation in regions with clear-cut harvest disturbances.
Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2
We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.
The Vegetation Greenness Trend in Canada and US Alaska from 1984-2012 Landsat Data
To assess the North American high-latitude vegetation response to the rising temperature, we derived NDVI end for 91.2% of the non-water, non-snow land area of Canada and Alaska using the peak-summer Landsat surface reflectance data of 19842012. Our analysis indicated that 29.4% and 2.9 of the land area of Canada and Alaska showed statistically significant positive (greening) and negative (browning) trends respectively, at significance level p b 0.01, after burned forest areas were masked out. The area with greening trend dominated over that with browning trend for all land cover types. The greening occurred primarily in the tundra of western Alaska, along the north coast of Canada and in northeastern Canada; the most intensive and extensive greening occurred in Quebec and Labrador. The browning occurred mostly in the boreal forests of eastern Alaska. The Landsat-based greenness trend is broadly similar to the 8-km GIMMS AVHRR-based trend for all vegetation zones. However, for tundra, the Landsat data indicated much less extensive greening in Alaska North Slope and much more extensive greening in Quebec and Labrador, and substantially less extensive browning trend in the boreal forests that were free of fire disturbances. These differences call for further validation of the Landsat reflectance and the AVHRR NDVI datasets. Correlation study with local environmental factors, such as topography, glacial history and soil condition, will be needed to understand the heterogeneous greenness change at the Landsat scale.