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Machine Learning and Understanding for Intelligent Extreme Scale Scientific Computing and Discovery. DOE Workshop Report, January 7–9, 2015, Rockville, MD

Large-scale parallel simulations and data analysis drive scientific discovery across many disciplines. To drive larger and more detailed simulations, and deal with larger data volumes, exascale machines capable of 1018 operations per second are expected within the next five to ten years. However, the complexity of developing and adapting modern simulation codes for these architectures is increasing rapidly. Workloads on exascale machines will be billion-way parallel. Exploiting the full capability of the machine will require carefully assigning application tasks to cores, accelerators, deep memories, and other heterogeneous compute resources, while simultaneously optimizing for time to solution, data movement, power, and resilience. Optimizations that improve performance on one machine may slow down another. Worse, applications themselves are dauntingly complex. Production simulations comprise millions of lines of code and use sophisticated, adaptive algorithms whose performance is input-dependent. Complex workflows can couple multi-physics simulation with data preprocessing and post-processing modules.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Kernel Density Estimators for SAMPLER Analyses [Slides]

This presentation discusses Sampler, specifically in terms of uncertainty quantification and states that for many simulation tasks nominal input parameters have complicated influence on the uncertainty in the final result. Sampler provides a convenient means to perform stochastic uncertainty quantification, brute force sampling parameter space and tallying changes in outputs, and it can be coupled with any SCALE modules. Perturbed responses can be collected and analyzed with standard statistical measures; however, two problems have been identified. The first problem is that for Monte Carlo simulations the individual response uncertainties are ignored, and the second problem is that features of distributions are easily hidden in histograms. They found that the solution is to add Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) analysis to the Sampler output. In conclusion, Sampler is a unique tool for stochastic uncertainty propagation, and it can be coupled with any module in SCALE. Current functionality is limited to histograms, and it may not adequately account for sample uncertainties and/or not adequately display underlying distribution features. Work is in progress to implement KDE in the Sampler module and no additional flagging is needed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Transfer Factors for the FRMAC Assessment Manual and Turbo FRMAC to Improve Radiological Dose Assessment

The Turbo FRMAC analysis tool is used to perform complex calculations to quickly evaluate radiological consequences and aid in decision making during an emergency response by assessing impacts to the public, workers, and the food supply. Turbo FRMAC calculations are based on methods established by the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC). To be able to assess impacts, input data called transfer factors that describe radionuclide uptake by local plants and animals are required. During the code application exercises in late 2016, identifying, finding, and validating nonstandard transfer factors proved to be time consuming and diverted the teams’ activity away from other critical tasks. As a result, a task was undertaken to dramatically expand the list of available transfer factors (food and non-food) and incorporate these factors into Turbo FRMAC. This will ultimately result in improved efficiency of the assessment team to perform calculations during times when the FRMAC is activated and provide more defensible, vetted data from which to calculate results. As a result of these and subsequent exercises, transfer factors were needed for the following items: bell peppers, Christmas tree, deer, flowers, fresh cucumbers, tomatoes, grapefruit, lichens, mushrooms, oranges, snap beans, squash, strawberries, sugarcane for sugar and seed, sweet corn, tea, tobacco, tree bark, and watermelon. To expand the applicability of the information tables, generic transfer data were also provided for common categories and recommendations were made for expanding the list of chemicals based on chemical similarity. The data presented in this report were compiled from recent literature with most of the data encompassing the period from 2000 to 2018. The following radionuclides were targeted during the literature search: elements associated with reactor accidents or nuclear detonations (Sr 89/90, Cs 134/137, Ce 141/144, Ru 103/106, I 129/131/133, Pu 238/239, Am 241, Zr 95, and Nb 95) and elements associated with industrial accidents or dirty bombs (Ir 192 and Co 60). Data from other elements were evaluated if they were identified during the literature search. In addition, reports were evaluated that were recommended by the research consultants. For each plant or animal transfer factor, the goal was to determine the geometric mean, the geometric standard deviation, the minimum, the maximum, and the number of measurements used. If only one measurement was available that was presented as the mean. Concentration ratios with large geometric standard deviations (GSDs) were generally the result of a paucity of measurements or a few disparate measurements. Measurement disparity was observed for data from different soil types. The geometric mean (GM) is a good reference value for planning and responses purposes, but the location-specific concentrations are unlikely to be similar to the model results. Recommendations for further work include: segregating the data to reflect the influence of soil type, developing approaches to incorporate animal data based on aggregated transfer measurements, and including data for foliar deposition on plants.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Hydra: Computer Vision for Data Quality Monitoring

Hydra: Computer Vision for Data Quality Monitoring Mar 13, 2024, 4:15 PM 30m Charles B. Wang Center, Stony Brook University Poster Track 1: Computing Technology for Physics Research Poster session with coffee break Speaker Ayan Roy Description Hydra is an extensible framework for training, managing, and deploying machine learning models for near real-time data quality monitoring. It is designed to take some of the burden off of shift crews by providing ‘round-the-clock’ monitoring of plots representing the data being collected. The Hydra system is backed by a database which is leveraged for near push button training and is primarily controlled and viewed through a set of web interfaces. This web interface contains a simple-to-use web based GUI for labeling of the datasets used in training; making it possible to label thousands of images quickly and efficiently. To aid in the analysis of Hydra inferences gradCAM, a method of interpretability, is performed and overlaid on the target image, highlighting regions of interest, making diagnosis of problems much faster. Development began in 2019 for the GlueX Experiment in Hall-D, the Hydra system has grown to encompass all of the experimental halls at Jefferson Laboratory. This talk will focus on the features of Hydra as well as provide details of the challenges present with deploying to disparate experimental halls. With a roadmap of development established, Hydra aims to continue to grow in richness of feature set and expand to encompass other monitoring tasks in differing communities.

Roy, Ayan↗

Comparison of the sensitivity of 236 U measurements in environmental samples by MC-ICP-MS and ATONA based high precision U TIMS measurements

The ATONA project is focused upon exploring the improvements in uranium isotope ratio measurements by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) provided by a new, capacitor-based, amplifier technology. These “ATONA” Faraday amplifiers (Isotopx Ltd, UK) promise accurate, low-noise measurements of very small signals (< 1 femto-amp) in a traditional Faraday cup, which was only previously possible using an ion counter. This report outlines a series of experiments that were performed to assess the performance of the system in samples that test our rapid analysis procedures, and then compare the results against other mass spectrometry techniques currently available for environmental analyses. The following major goals were achieved: (1) illustrated the importance of 236 U measurements for the screening and analysis of environmental samples; (2) improved sensitivity for 236 U, and then identified 236 U in the 4350B standard at ultra-trace levels (3) Provided comparison of the 236 U sensitivity to multi-collector inductively coupled mass spectrometry techniques (4) Illustrated high TRL for the ATONA based measurement technique. This completes the reporting requirements for task 4 in the project LCP and highlights the utility of the system to make highly sensitive 236 U measurements in programmatically relevant sample matrices and at relevant uranium concentrations.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A High-Throughput Solver for Marginalized Graph Kernels on GPU

Here, we present the design and optimization of a solver for efficient and high-throughput computation of the marginalized graph kernel on General Purpose GPUs. The graph kernel is computed using the conjugate gradient method to solve a generalized Laplacian of the tensor product between a pair of graphs. To cope with the large gap between the instruction throughput and the memory bandwidth of the GPUs, our solver forms the graph tensor product on-the-fly without storing it in memory. This is achieved by using threads in a warp cooperatively to stream the adjacency and edge label matrices of individual graphs by small square matrix blocks called tiles, which are then staged in registers and the shared memory for later reuse. Warps across a thread block can further share tiles via the shared memory to increase data reuse. We exploit the sparsity of the graphs hierarchically by storing only non-empty tiles using a coordinate format and nonzero elements within each tile using bitmaps. We propose a new partition-based reordering algorithm for aggregating nonzero elements of the graphs into fewer but denser tiles to further exploit sparsity. We carry out extensive theoretical analyses on the graph tensor product primitives for tiles of various density and evaluate their performance on synthetic and real-world datasets. Our solver delivers three to four orders of magnitude speedup over existing CPU-based solvers such as GraKeL and GraphKernels. The capability of the solver enables kernel-based learning tasks at unprecedented scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance losses routines for the detection and classification of incidents in large‐scale photovoltaic systems

Abstract Fault detection and classification in photovoltaic (PV) systems through real‐time monitoring is a fundamental task that ensures quality of operation and significantly improves the performance and reliability of operating systems. Different statistical and comparative approaches have already been proposed in the literature for fault detection; however, accurate classification of fault and loss incidents based on PV performance time series remains a key challenge. Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance loss routines were developed in this work for detecting PV underperformance and accurately identifying the different fault types and loss mechanisms. The proposed routines focus mainly on the differentiation of failures (e.g., inverter faults) from irreversible (e.g., degradation) and reversible (e.g., snow and soiling) performance loss factors based on statistical analysis. The proposed routines were benchmarked using historical inverter data obtained from a 1.8 MWp PV power plant. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the routines for detecting failures and loss mechanisms and the capability of the pipeline for distinguishing underperformance issues using anomaly detection and change‐point (CP) models. Finally, a CP model was used to extract significant changes in time series data, to detect soiling and cleaning events and to estimate both the performance loss and degradation rates of fielded PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhancing Distribution System Resilience: A First-Order Meta-RL Algorithm for Critical Load Restoration

The increasing frequency of extreme events and the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into modern grids have elevated the need for resilient and efficient critical load restoration strategies in distribution systems. However, the stochastic nature of renewable DERs, limited energy resource availability and the intricate nonlinearities inherent in complex grid control problem make the problem challenging. Although reinforcement learning (RL) and warm-start RL methods have shown promising results, their performance often falls short in rapidly adapting to new, unseen situations and typically requires exhaustive problem-specific tuning. To address these gaps, we propose a First-Order Meta-based RL (FOM-RL) algorithm within an online framework for adaptive and robust critical load restoration. By harnessing local DERs as the enabling technology, FOM-RL allows the RL agent to swiftly adapt to new unseen scenarios by leveraging previously acquired knowledge of different tasks. Experimental results provide evidence that proposed algorithm learns more efficiently and showcases generalization capabilities across diverse set of operational scenarios. Moreover, a rigorous theoretical analysis yields a tight sublinear regret bound, sensitive to temporal variability, with a task-averaged optimality gap bounded by O(VM+D*/(Tsquare root(M))). These results suggest that optimality improves with task similarity and an increased number of tasks M, reaffirming the efficacy and scalability of the proposed approach in addressing the complexities of critical load restoration in distribution systems.

complexity theory↗

Low Cost Glass-Ceramic Matrix Composite Heat Exchanger

As part of ARPA-E’s High Intensity Thermal Exchange through Materials and Manufacturing Processes (HITEMMP) program, this project sought to develop novel heat exchanger (HX) capabilities to enable efficient and power dense power generation cycles. This class of HX comes under the category of ceramic/composite materials with the higher temperature goal in the program of ≥1100 °C inlet temperature operation. The enabling capability of this effort is the use of glass-ceramic matrix composite (GCMC) material which provides the high temperature durability of a ceramic, the flaw tolerance of a composite, a significantly faster and lower cost manufacturing process than conventional matrix CMCs and very low porosity levels < 0.5%. For thin-walled HX structures and the need to minimize leakage, the low porosity differentiator is particularly important. RTRC has prior experience with this material system and in the current project advanced the component design and manufacturing methods into new territory to produce features required for effective heat exchange under high pressures. In this approach, silicon carbide fiber is fabricated into a fiber preform using various textile processes. Graphite tooling is used both during the build-up of the fiber preform (interior tooling) and after the fiber preform has been completed (exterior tooling). This tooling assembly is heated to high temperature in an environment that has been evacuated and backfilled with inert gas. A reservoir of specialty glass is present and once the desired temperature has been reached to achieve the desired glass viscosity, an actuator distributes the glass throughout the fiber preform using passageways which are part of the tooling design in a process known as glass transfer molding. After the tooling has been removed, the composite is heat treated to convert the amorphous glass to a crystalline ceramic, providing improved properties. The project was divided into three phases focusing on the following: 1) 10 kW HX design and coupon-level tube sheet fabrication, 2) 10 kW HX fabrication, 3) 50 kW HX fabrication. During Budget Period 1 (BP1), additional risks were encountered and the need for additional funds was agreed upon by ARPA-E program leadership. Due to a variety of factors, the contract modification required nominally 18 months to execute at which time the HITEMMP program was effectively concluding. Because of this and the time that would be required to perform BP2 tasks, it was decided to conclude the project at the end of BP1. During the design of the 10 kW HX, manufacturing constraints were learned and incorporated, leading to a revised configuration for the fiber preform and HX. Heat exchange and pressure drop predictions also played a role in modifying the original design concept to be a higher aspect ratio shell-and-tube HX, simplifying the manufacturing process and improving the heat exchanger performance. Good gravimetric and volumetric thermal power densities of 11.2 kW/kg and 10,200 kW/m3 for the entire HX were projected that involved thermo-structural Finite Element Analysis to determine the structural mass needed for the high operation pressures of 250 bar cold inlet and 80 bar hot inlet. Fiber preforms using textile processes were produced for multiple headered tube sheets. Additional challenges were encountered during the glass transfer molding step for which solutions were identified, but programmatics did not allow them to be implemented in BP1. While complete HX test articles were not fabricated, the benefits of this GCMC material for a variety of high temperature applications remain.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Highly Efficient Regeneration Module for Carbon Capture Systems in NGCC Applications

The objective of this project is to design, fabricate, and test a highly efficient regeneration module capable of providing an ultra-lean absorption solution that is required for capturing CO 2 from dilute sources at 95% or better efficiency. By integrating this advanced regenerator module with SRI International’s Mixed Salt Process (MSP) absorption modules, SRI expects to demonstrate significant progress toward a reduction in cost of capture versus the DOE reference natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant with carbon capture. SRI designed, built, and tested an advanced stripper to enhance the performance of SRI’s MSP for CO 2 capture – a transformational ammonia-based solvent technology – for natural gas (NG) power sources. The testing of the advanced stripper for MSP was conducted at an SRI site using a simulated flue gas stream equivalent to about 10 kWe. The research work included modeling of the advanced stripper and integrating it with the MSP absorbers; studying the strategies for producing very highly alkaline lean solvent with minimized emissions; operating the stripper with advanced heat integration to improve process efficiencies; and collecting critically important data for a detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA). The project tasks were designed to address concerns relating to scale-up and integration of the technology to NG power plants—more specifically, to maximize the carbon capture efficiency achievable with MSP and identify pathways to achieve higher capture efficiencies and ultimately zero net carbon emissions. SRI teamed up with a process modeling company (OLI Systems), a process and chemical engineering company (Trimeric Corporation), and a cost-sharing commercial partner (Baker-Hughes – a leading multinational company that designs, manufactures, and services transformative energy technologies) to execute the project. The research findings will accelerate the MSP development and pave the way for the technology to reach the DOE’s goal, and ultimately commercialization of the MSP technology for low-cost CO 2 capture from NGCC flue gas and other dilute CO 2 sources.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Radioactive Source Localization via Bayesian Particle Filter

In the event of a misplaced radioactive source or other emergency situation, measuring a radiation field, mapping its distribution, and determining a source location are essential tasks to ameliorating the situation. However, radiation fields may be extremely hazardous to human surveyors and minimizing received radiation doses is just as essential. Robots appear to be a potential solution to these problems. Beyond simply measuring radiation, the robot's computer processing capabilities offer a way to apply complex data analysis methods to radiation measurements in real-time. Methods which predict likely source locations can then feed this information into other processes, potentially improving path planning and enabling more efficient measurements. Given a robot mounted with a gamma-ray detector, can we: develop a methodology to account for detector performance across a wide range of source angles, distances, and photon energies? operate an autonomously navigating robot to effectively survey and characterize an area of interest? implement a data analysis method, conventionally used in measurements of motion, for source localization purposes? An open-source TurtleBot 3 robot, running Robot Operating System (ROS) on Ubuntu 16.04 LTS, was fitted with a Kromek GR1{sup R} Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) solid-state gamma-ray detector. As a part of ROS, the packages OpenSlam, gmapping, and amcl were used to perform Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), determining the robot's position and mapping the surrounding area. Data was acquired via Lidar mounted on top the TurtleBot 3. Detector Calibration Fit: The equation was fit to 365 counts of various energies, distances, and angles. A MATLAB{sup R} program was written to simulate measurements taken a robot on a random walk, with count data and positions discretized into finite element pixels. Using this program, a sample of 100 runs was performed on a map with a simulated source at the center, with a total of 200 of 2 pixels each. Similarly, multiple runs of the filter were performed on recorded robot measurement data. In both simulation and real tests, when corrected for errors (particles placed outside of bounds or on the robot, and simulation-specific errors), corresponding t-tests of predicted x and y-coordinates were within a 95% confidence interval of the actual position. For the real trial, these positions are slightly skewed right in the x-axis as the robot remained mainly to the left side of the source within the sample area. These simulations demonstrate potential validity for the usage of a particle filter as method of radioactive source localization. In the future, true real-time implementation and data fusion may further augment the performance of the robot to localize lost sources. Additionally, identification of multiple sources, determination of source types, and usage of a collimator are areas to potentially be explored.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Upstreamness and downstreamness in input–output analysis from local and aggregate information

Abstract Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However, this task is often non-trivial due to the lack of complete and accurate information on the flows of money and goods between sectors and countries, which are encoded in input–output (I–O) tables. In this work, we show that an accurate estimation of the role played by sectors and countries in supply chain networks can be achieved without full knowledge of the I–O tables, but only relying on local and aggregate information, e.g., the total intermediate demand per sector. Our method, based on a rank-1 approximation to the I–O table, shows consistently good performance in reconstructing rankings (i.e., upstreamness and downstreamness measures for countries and sectors) when tested on empirical data from the world input–output database. Moreover, we connect the accuracy of our approximate framework with the spectral properties of the I–O tables, which ordinarily exhibit relatively large spectral gaps. Our approach provides a fast and analytically tractable framework to rank constituents of a complex economy without the need of matrix inversions and the knowledge of finer intersectorial details.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection

Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.

Onim, Md. Saif Hassan [University of Tennessee, Kn↗

Contaminant source identification using semi-supervised machine learning

Identification of the original groundwater types present in geochemical mixtures observed in an aquifer is a challenging but very important task. Frequently, some of the groundwater types are related to different infiltration and/or contamination sources associated with various geochemical signatures and origins. The characterization of groundwater mixing processes typically requires solving complex inverse models representing groundwater flow and geochemical transport in the aquifer, where the inverse analysis accounts for available site data. Usually, the model is calibrated against the available data characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed geochemical types. Numerous different geochemical constituents and processes may need to be simulated in these models which further complicates the analyses. In this paper, we propose a new contaminant source identification approach that performs decomposition of the observation mixtures based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method for Blind Source Separation (BSS), coupled with a custom semi-supervised clustering algorithm. Our methodology, called NMFk, is capable of identifying (a) the unknown number of groundwater types and (b) the original geochemical concentration of the contaminant sources from measured geochemical mixtures with unknown mixing ratios without any additional site information. NMFk is tested on synthetic and real-world site data. Finally, the NMFk algorithm works with geochemical data represented in the form of concentrations, ratios (of two constituents; for example, isotope ratios), and delta notations (standard normalized stable isotope ratios).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TU-EF-204-10: A Preliminary Study Evaluating Calculation Variations of Local Noise Power Spectra for CT Simulation in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Local noise power spectrum (NPS) properties are significantly affected by calculation variables and CT acquisition and reconstruction parameters, but a thoughtful analysis of these effects is absent. In this study, we performed a complete analysis of the effects of calculation and imaging parameters on the NPS. Methods: The uniformity module of a Catphan phantom was scanned with a Philips Brilliance 64-slice CT simulator using various scanning protocols. Images were reconstructed using both FBP and iDose4 reconstruction algorithms. From these images, local NPS were calculated for regions of interest (ROI) of varying locations and sizes, using four image background removal methods. Additionally, using a predetermined ground truth, NPS calculation accuracy for various calculation parameters was compared for computer simulated ROIs. A complete analysis of the effects of calculation, acquisition, and reconstruction parameters on the NPS was conducted. Results: The local NPS varied with ROI size and image background removal method, particularly at low spatial frequencies. The image subtraction method was the most accurate according to the computer simulation study, and was also the most effective at removing low frequency background components in the acquired data. However, first-order polynomial fitting using residual sum of squares and principle component analysis provided comparable accuracy under certain situations. Similar general trends were observed when comparing the NPS for FBP to that of iDose4 while varying other calculation and scanning parameters. However, while iDose4 reduces the noise magnitude compared to FBP, this reduction is spatial-frequency dependent, further affecting NPS variations at low spatial frequencies. Conclusion: The local NPS varies significantly depending on calculation parameters, image acquisition parameters, and reconstruction techniques. Appropriate local NPS calculation should be performed to capture spatial variations of noise; calculation methodology should be selected with consideration of image reconstruction effects and the desired purpose of CT simulation for radiotherapy tasks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predicting Drug Effects from High-dimensional Asymmetric Drug Data Sets using Graph Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Analysis of Multi-target Drug Effect Prediction

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as one of the most effective Machine learning (ML) techniques for drug effect prediction from drug molecular graphs. Despite having immense potential, GNN models lack performance when using data sets that contain high dimensional asymmetrically co-occurrent drug effects as targets with complex correlations between them. Training individual learning models for each drug effect and incorporating every prediction result for a wide spectrum of drug effects is beyond practicality. Such an implication provides a testbed to address this challenge as multi-target prediction problems, aiming to predict all drug effects at a time. We develop standard and hybrid graph neural networks (GNNs)to perform two separate tasks that are multi-regression for continuous values and multi-label classification for categorical values contained in our data sets. Since this step makes the target data even more sparse and introduces asymmetric label co-occurrence, the learning of multi-label classification models becomes difficult and heavily impacts the GNN's performance. To address these challenges, we propose a new data oversampling technique to improve multi-label classification performances on all the given imbalanced molecular graph data sets. Using the technique, we improve the data imbalance ratio of the drug effects better than before while protecting the data set's integrity. Finally, we evaluate multi-label classification performance using the best-performant hybrid GNN model on all the oversampled data sets obtained from the proposed oversampling technique. These results outperform those of other ML models including GNN models when they are trained on the original data sets or oversampled data sets using MLSMOTE (a well-known oversampling technique) in all evaluation metrics precision, recall, and F1 score by a significant margin.

Bose, Avishek [ORNL]↗

Reproduction of the Yucca Mountain Project TSPA-LA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses and Preliminary Upgrade of Models

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014) and Hadgu et al. (2015). The TSPA computing hardware (CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the current analysis. One floating license of GoldSim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5 and 11.1.6 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The current tasks included verification of the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and preliminary upgrade of the TSPA-LA from Version 9.60.300 to the latest version 11.1. All the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses modeling cases were successfully tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses used TSPA-LA modeling cases output generated in FY15 based on GoldSim Version 9.60.300 documented in Hadgu et al. (2015). The model upgrade task successfully converted the Nominal Modeling case to GoldSim Version 11.1. Upgrade of the remaining of the modeling cases and distributed processing tasks will continue. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Small arms suppression project (LLNL final report)

US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) was seeking a technological leap in small firearms weapon suppressor technology, because anticipated enemy capabilities are requiring the operators to have smaller detection cross sections to ensure the safe execution of missions. Suppressors have been developed almost exclusively through trial-and-error methods since the time of the original design by Hiram Maxim over one hundred years ago. Consequently USSOCOM deemed it prudent to perform a physicsbased study of weapon suppression to understand performance limits and possibly identify breakthrough technologies. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) high performance production level computational tool called ALE3D (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian 3D and 2D) has unique physics models and numerical algorithms for modeling suppressor dynamics. The flexible and extendable code framework supports fully integrated hydrodynamics, heat transfer, solid and fluid dynamics, and chemistry that can be applied to simulating propellant-driven motion of a bullet down a gun barrel, the transfer of heat from the burning propellant to the barrel and suppressor, the chemistry of muzzle flash, and the shock/acoustic/optical signatures in the near-field. LLNL’s originally anticipated role was to augment ALE3D for this task, by developing the software and analysis methodologies specific to the simulation of blast and muzzle flash phenomena. It was believed that insights provided by our ALE3D simulations in tandem with a coordinated experimental component by our other team members from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U. S. Army Armament, Research, Development and Engineering Center (ARDEC), would have excellent prospects of yielding useful suppressor design improvements that could be transitioned to industry and utilized by US Special Operations Command. The three year effort has come to fruition with the development of revolutionary suppressor designs that far outperform any previous or current design by anyone outside this multi-lab team.

42 ENGINEERING↗