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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

U-net architected deep material network training with microstructure local field information

The Deep Material Network (DMN) has recently emerged as a powerful reduced-order modeling framework for simulating the mechanical response of heterogeneous materials such as composites. Unlike most data-driven approaches that directly learn a material’s response under prescribed loading, the DMN acts as a homogenization operator, learning the kinematic constraints and mechanical interactions of the underlying microstructure. However, traditional DMN training relies exclusively on homogenized effective properties derived from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), discarding the rich local field data that govern microstructural interactions. In this work, we extend the DMN framework to incorporate such local field information into the offline training process. Utilizing a U-Net architecture, we augment the DMN training objective to include the first and second statistical moments of the local stress fields obtained from linear DNS. This ensures that the learned network topology not only fits the effective stiffness but also accurately reflects the internal local stress and strain partitioning of the microstructure. The results confirm that supervising the localization process during training yields a superior surrogate model, reducing local prediction errors by an order of magnitude and significantly improving generalization to unseen nonlinear constitutive behaviors compared to traditional DMNs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A flexible event reconstruction based on machine learning and likelihood principles

Event reconstruction is a central step in many particle physics experiments, turning detector observables into parameter estimates; for example estimating the energy of an interaction given the sensor readout of a detector. A corresponding likelihood function is often intractable, and approximations need to be constructed. Here, in our work, we first show how the full likelihood for a many-sensor detector can be broken apart into smaller terms, and secondly how we can train neural networks to approximate all terms solely based on forward simulation. Our technique results in a fast, flexible, and close-to-optimal surrogate model proportional to the likelihood and can be used in conjunction with standard inference techniques allowing for a consistent treatment of uncertainties. We illustrate our technique for parameter inference in neutrino telescopes based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian posterior sampling. Given its great flexibility, we also showcase our method for geometry optimization enabling to learn optimal detector designs. Lastly, we apply our method to realistic simulation of a ton-scale water-based liquid scintillator detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2024

PALMO: An OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance Database

The OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance (PALMO) database has been created to enable robust modeling of airfoil performance in a variety of applications. The database uses OVERFLOW simulation data second-order accurate in time and fourth-order accurate in space with Spalart-Allmaras turbulence closure. The foundation of the in-development PALMO database is the airfoil base cube. Each base cube includes simulation data parametrized over a range of Mach numbers, Reynolds numbers, and angles-of-attack. This first release of the database includes the NACA 4-series airfoils, with parametrization in airfoil thickness and camber from an NACA 0006 to an NACA 4424. In total, 52,480 NACA 4-series calculations were run on the NASA High-End Compute Capability (HECC) supercomputer and the corresponding airfoil performance coefficients are embedded in the Appendix of this document for public distribution. This provides high-order-accurate simulation data covering a wide range of aerospace design applications, which enables users to develop OVERFLOW-quality airfoil performance look-up tables without additional high-performance computing. In addition to engineering design and analysis of aerospace vehicles, PALMO is well suited to be a benchmark dataset for the development and testing of machine learning methods in aerospace engineering. Downstream surrogate models enable OVERFLOW- quality airfoil performance predictions for any arbitrary combination of camber, thickness, Mach number, Reynolds number, and angle-of-attack within the bounds of the database.

Database↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Time-Dependent Surrogates of Additive-Manufactured Nuclear Fuels Processes

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas for its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. Recently, a hybrid AM technique was successfully developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to manufacture nuclear fuels [1]. Despite the advantages, this AM technique needs optimization due to defects from a highly complex melting and sintering process. The complex metallurgical phenomena during AM processes are strongly related to parameters such as applied laser power, traveling speed, and scan style, which could lead to differences in density, residual stress, crystallographic texture, and mechanical properties. In addition, stochastic variations in laser energy interaction and associated multiscale/multiphysics phenomena cause variations in microstructure evolution and mechanical properties. Currently, researchers at INL are focusing on developing a comprehensive modeling framework, leveraging INL’s simulation tools MOOSE/MARMOT/BISON/RAVEN [2-4] to describe all steps of this AM process across multiple length scales. Although this advanced framework plays a critical role in enabling enhancements to traditional trial and error approaches for design and optimization of nuclear fuel materials, it remains computationally intense, limiting its use in sensitivity and optimization analysis. In this case, an accurate and inexpensive surrogate becomes an effective tool for providing a tractable approximation of the underlying underline physics. Surrogate models generally not based on the physics of a system are purely mathematical models used to capture the relationships between specific system inputs and outputs. Popular approaches, including neural networks [5], response surfaces [6], and subspace-based reduced order models [7], have been applied to a wide range of disciplines, such as nuclear reactor design, aerospace design and automotive design. In this summary, we employ advanced time-dependent surrogate models such as high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) [8] and physics-informed deep neural network (PINNs) [9] to accelerate the design and optimization of AM process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult -- in both cost and schedule -- to enact. Indeed, the current capability-based paradigm that has emerged because of the constrained economic environment calls for the infusion of knowledge acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bring knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture as the need for more economically viable access to space solutions are needed in today's constrained economic environment. The problem of ascent trajectory optimization is not a new one. There are several programs that are widely used in industry that allows trajectory analysts to, based on detailed vehicle and insertion orbit parameters, determine the optimal ascent trajectory. Yet, little information is known about the launch vehicle early in the design phase - information that is required of many different disciplines in order to successfully optimize the ascent trajectory. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Holt, James B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

TorbeamNN: machine learning-based steering of ECH mirrors on KSTAR

We have developed TorbeamNN: a machine learning surrogate model for the TORBEAM ray tracing code to predict electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive locations in tokamak plasmas. TorbeamNN provides more than a 100 times speed-up compared to the highly optimized and simplified real-time implementation of TORBEAM without any reduction in accuracy compared to the offline, full fidelity TORBEAM code. The model was trained using KSTAR ECH mirror geometries and works for both O-mode and X-mode absorption. The TorbeamNN predictions have been validated both offline and real-time in experiment. TorbeamNN has been utilized to track an ECH absorption vertical position target in dynamic KSTAR plasmas as well as under varying toroidal mirror angles and with a minimal average tracking error of 0.5 cm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Discovery of CH 4 Uptake Capacity Metal–Organic Frameworks Using Bayesian Optimization

Abstract High‐throughput computational studies for discovery of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for separations and storage applications are often limited by the costs of computing thermodynamic quantities. Recent such studies at the time of writing may use ab initio results for a narrow selection of MOFs or empirical force‐field methods for larger selections. Here, a proof‐of‐concept study is conducted using Bayesian optimization on CH 4 uptake capacity of hypothetical MOFs for an existing dataset (Wilmer et al., Nature Chem. 2012, 4 , 83). It is shown that less than 0.1% of the database needs to be screened with the Bayesian optimization approach to recover the top candidate MOFs. This opens the possibility for efficient screening of MOF databases using accurate ab initio calculations for future adsorption studies on a minimal subset of MOFs. Furthermore, Bayesian optimization and the surrogate model presented here can offer interpretable material design insights and the framework will be applicable in the context of other target properties.

Taw, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparative Study of Active Learning Schemes for Nanophotonics Design

We present a benchmarking study of active learning (AL) schemes for designing planar multilayer nanophotonic metamaterials, where the design tasks are formulated as binary optimization problems. Different surrogate models, including factorization machine (FM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and convolutional neural network (CNN), combined with different optimization methods, including exhaustive enumeration, discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO), quantum annealing (QA), hybrid QA, and simulated annealing are studied. The benchmark cases investigated range from small problems with short binary lengths (N = 25) to large problems with N up to 100, focusing on the design of two classes of photonic structures, including antireflective coatings for the long-wavelength infrared region and transparent radiative coolers. For small problems, CNN coupled with DPSO in AL achieves the best performance. As N increases, FM with QA outperforms GPR and CNN. For FM-based AL, hybrid QA yields the best optimization results, particularly in high-dimensional cases (N = 100). These results demonstrate that the optimization method can significantly affect in AL performance as N increases, and that QA-based optimization can provide practical routes for mitigating the optimization bottleneck in high-dimensional problems.

Jung, Serang [Kyung Hee University, Korea]↗
DOE OSTI2024

ytopt: Autotuning Scientific Applications for Energy Efficiency at Large Scales

As we enter the exascale computing era, efficiently utilizing power and optimizing the performance of scientific applications under power and energy constraints has become critical and challenging. We propose a low-overhead autotuning framework to autotune performance and energy for various hybrid MPI/OpenMP scientific applications at large scales and to explore the tradeoffs between application runtime and power/energy for energy efficient application execution, then use this framework to autotune four ECP proxy applications—XSBench, AMG, SWFFT, and SW4lite. Our approach uses Bayesian optimization with a Random Forest surrogate model to effectively search parameter spaces with up to 6 million different configurations on two large-scale HPC production systems, Theta at Argonne National Laboratory and Summit at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The experimental results show that our autotuning framework at large scales has low overhead and achieves good scalability. Using the proposed autotuning framework to identify the best configurations, we achieve up to 91.59% performance improvement, up to 21.2% energy savings, and up to 37.84% EDP (energy delay product) improvement on up to 4096 nodes.

Autotuning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial‐Uniformity–Driven Bayesian Optimization for Rapid Development of Printed Perovskite Solar Cells

Printed metal halide perovskites can enable rapid, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a broad class of optoelectronics—flexible solar cells and imagers among them—while promising cost and speed advantages over incumbent silicon. However, though current methods offer high throughput and patterning capabilities, perovskite films’ spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge for large-area devices. Here, a spatial-uniformity-driven Bayesian optimization (BO) approach is leveraged to accelerate the development of printed perovskite solar cells and improve large-area device performance. Using a BO surrogate model, a 6D design space of ink chemistry and printing physics is explored via extensive iterative experimentation (≈100) informed by an objective function capturing spatial photoluminescence (PL) variance. It is discovered that optimizing for uniformity drives rapid advances in photovoltaic performance, yielding ≈20% power conversion efficiency (PCE) for small area (0.134 cm 2 ) devices and > 16% for large area (1 cm 2 ) devices. This machine-learning approach simultaneously enables rheological comparison of ink formulations that accelerate the leveling of Saffman-Taylor artifacts and improve film uniformity. Here, this showcases uniformity-driven BO as an efficient approach for uncovering the key printing physics and mitigating spatial heterogeneity to enable device scaling beyond small cell areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-Dependent Configurational Entropy Calculations for Refractory High-Entropy Alloys

The cluster expansion formalism for alloys is used to construct surrogate models for three refractory high-entropy alloys (NbTiVZr, HfNbTaTiZr, and AlHfNbTaTiZr). These cluster expansion models are then used along with Monte Carlo methods and thermodynamic integration to calculate the configurational entropy of these refractory high-entropy alloys as a function of temperature. Many solid solution alloy design guidelines are based on the ideal entropy of mixing, which increases monotonically with N , the number of elements in the alloy. However, our results show that at low temperatures, the configurational entropy of these materials is largely independent of N , and the assumption described above only holds in the high-temperature limit. This suggests that alloy design guidelines based on the ideal entropy of mixing require further examination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mathematical analysis of laboratory microbial experiments demonstrating deterministic chaotic dynamics

Presented is a system of four ordinary differential equations and a mathematical analysis of microbiological experiments in a four-component chemostat—nutrient n, rods r, cocci c, and predators p. The analysis is consistent with the conclusion that previous experiments produced features of deterministic chaotic and classical dynamics depending on dilution rate. The surrogate model incorporates as much experimental detail as possible, but necessarily contains unmeasured parameters. The objective is to understand better the differences between model simulations and experimental results in complex microbial populations. The key methodology for simulation of chaotic dynamics, consistent with the measured dilution rate and microbial volume averages, was to cause the preference of p for r vs. c to vary with the r and c concentrations, to make r more competitive for nutrient than c, and to recycle some dying p biomass, leading to a modified version of the Monod kinetics model. Our mathematical model demonstrated that the occurrence of chaotic dynamics requires a predator, p, preference for r versus c to increase significantly with increases in r and c populations. Also included is a discussion of several generalizations of the existing model and a possible involvement of the minimum energy dissipation principle. This principle appears fundamental to thermodynamic systems including living systems. Several new experiments are suggested.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic simulations and machine learning of solute grain boundary segregation in Mg alloys at finite temperatures

Understanding solute segregation thermodynamics is the first step in investigating grain boundary (GB) properties, such as strong yttrium (Y) effects on grain growth and texture evolution in micro-scale polycrystalline magnesium (Mg) alloys. To estimate the average GB segregation behavior in low-solute-concentration Mg alloys (e.g., 2 at.% Y), a state-of-the-art spectral approach is applied based on a per-site segregation energy spectrum for Y solute atoms at zero K obtained from molecular statistics (MS) simulations of ~10 4 GB sites in Mg symmetric tilt GBs (STGBs). Although selected MS simulation results are consistent with verification by density functional theory (DFT) calculations, estimates of average segregation tendency based on the zero-K energy spectrum deviate from experimental observations. To resolve this problem, thermodynamic integration (TI) methods based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine the per-site segregation free energies of Y at representative GB sites, which show contributions beyond harmonic approximations can be important for certain GB sites at high temperatures. A surrogate model of per-site segregation free energy is constructed from a small set of TI data points using stacking cross-validation regressors and physics-informed descriptors. This model is applied to predict the Y segregation free energy spectra for thousands of GB sites in Mg STGBs with uncertainty quantification. Finally, the average segregation tendency predicted by the spectral approach based on the free energy spectra agrees well (within the uncertainty range) with experimental observations for micro-scale polycrystalline Mg alloys at typical thermomechanical processing temperatures (500 ~ 800 K), where thermodynamic equilibrium states are likely to be achieved due to fast diffusion.

Atomistic simulations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗