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DOE OSTI2019

thornado-transport: IMEX schemes for two-moment neutrino transport respecting Fermi-Dirac statistics

We develop implicit-explicit (IMEX) schemes for neutrino transport in a background material in the context of a two-moment model that evolves the angular moments of a neutrino phase-space distribution function. Considering the upper and lower bounds that are introduced by Pauli's exclusion principle on the moments, an algebraic moment closure based on Fermi-Dirac statistics and a convex-invariant time integrator both are demanded. A finite-volume/first-order discontinuous Galerkin(DG) method is used to illustrate how an algebraic moment closure based on Fermi-Dirac statistics is needed to satisfy the bounds. Several algebraic closures are compared with these bounds in mind, and the Cernohorsky and Bludman closure, which satisfies the bounds, is chosen for our IMEX schemes. For the convex-invariant time integrator, two IMEX schemes named PD-ARS have been proposed. PD-ARS denotes a convex-invariant IMEX Runge-Kutta scheme that is high-order accurate in the streaming limit, and works well in the diffusion limit. Our two PD-ARS schemes use second-and third-order, explicit, strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta methods as their explicit part, respectively, and therefore are second-and third-order accurate in the streaming limit, respectively. The accuracy and convex-invariance of our PD-ARS schemes are demonstrated in the numerical tests with a third-order DG method for spatial discretization and a simple Lax-Friedrichs flux. The method has been implemented in our high-order neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics (thornado) toolkit. We show preliminary results employing tabulated neutrino opacities.

Chu, Ran↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving seasonal precipitation forecasts in the Western United States through statistical downscaling

Abstract Seasonal precipitation forecasts in the western United States are critical resources for water resource management, especially during winter. While current seasonal forecasting systems provide monthly precipitation forecasts operationally, their coarse resolution limits their effectiveness in capturing the localized precipitation patterns and snowpack conditions essential for water resource managers in the mountainous regions. Here, analog statistical downscaling is demonstrated as an effective approach to enhance the spatial resolution of operational seasonal forecasts provided by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Downscaling was performed by building an analog ‘library’, in which corresponding model forecasts and observed values during the training period were stored. In the testing period, unseen model forecasts referenced the closest historical forecast from the analog library and applied the corresponding observational value for each point. This analysis indicates that downscaled products can capture localized features more accurately than the original coarse resolution forecasts, reducing forecast error across the western United States. Moreover, downscaling individual ensemble members—rather than downscaling the ensemble mean—further reduces forecasting error for their multi-model ensemble mean products. The greatest error reductions in the downscaled product, measured by root mean squared error (RMSE), were observed at low to mid-elevations (500–2000 meters), with 50%–70% improvement relative to the original forecasts. In the higher elevations (2000 meters and above), changes in RMSE relative to the original forecast were limited to 10%–30% improvements. The improvement is more substantial for forecast systems with 10 ensemble members compared to that with 4 members, but this relationship does not hold for the system with 24 ensemble members. These findings show that analog statistical downscaling can effectively address the spatial limitations of seasonal precipitation forecasts with minimal computational cost, providing a valuable framework for enhancing coarse resolution forecasting products while providing insights into the timing of ensemble mean calculations during the downscaling process.

Vernon, B. (ORCID:0009000891670689)↗

DOE OSTI2025

CoverM: read alignment statistics for metagenomics

SUMMARY: Genome-centric analysis of metagenomic samples is a powerful method for understanding the function of microbial communities. Calculating read coverage is a central part of analysis, enabling differential coverage binning for recovery of genomes and estimation of microbial community composition. Coverage is determined by processing read alignments to reference sequences of either contigs or genomes. Per-reference coverage is typically calculated in an ad-hoc manner, with each software package providing its own implementation and specific definition of coverage. Here we present a unified software package CoverM which calculates several coverage statistics for contigs and genomes in an ergonomic and flexible manner. It uses "Mosdepth arrays" for computational efficiency and avoids unnecessary I/O overhead by calculating coverage statistics from streamed read alignment results. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: CoverM is free software available at https://github.com/wwood/coverm. CoverM is implemented in Rust, with Python (https://github.com/apcamargo/pycoverm) and Julia (https://github.com/JuliaBinaryWrappers/CoverM_jll.jl) interfaces.

Aroney, Samuel T N↗

DOE OSTI2021

Brightest cluster galaxies are statistically special from z = 0.3 to z = 1

ABSTRACT We study brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) in ∼5000 galaxy clusters from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program. The sample is selected over an area of 830 deg2 and is uniformly distributed in redshift over the range of z = 0.3−1.0. The clusters have stellar masses in the range of 1011.8−1012.9M⊙. We compare the stellar mass of the BCGs in each cluster to what we would expect if their masses were drawn from the mass distribution of the other member galaxies of the clusters. The BCGs are found to be ‘special’, in the sense that they are not consistent with being a statistical extreme of the mass distribution of other cluster galaxies. This result is robust over the full range of cluster stellar masses and redshifts in the sample, indicating that BCGs are special up to a redshift of z = 1.0. However, BCGs with a large separation from the centre of the cluster are found to be consistent with being statistical extremes of the cluster member mass distribution. We discuss the implications of these findings for BCG formation scenarios.

Dalal, Roohi (ORCID:0000000279989899)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A framework to measure the properties of intergalactic metal systems with two-point flux statistics

ABSTRACT The abundance, temperature, and clustering of metals in the intergalactic medium are important parameters for understanding their cosmic evolution and quantifying their impact on cosmological analysis with the Ly α forest. The properties of these systems are typically measured from individual quasar spectra redward of the quasar’s Ly α emission line, yet that approach may provide biased results due to selection effects. We present an alternative approach to measure these properties in an unbiased manner with the two-point statistics commonly employed to quantify large-scale structure. Our model treats the observed flux of a large sample of quasar spectra as a continuous field and describes the one-dimensional, two-point statistics of this field with three parameters per ion: the abundance (column density distribution), temperature (Doppler parameter), and clustering (cloud–cloud correlation function). We demonstrate this approach on multiple ions (e.g. ${\rm C\, \small {\rm IV}}$ , ${\rm Si\, \small {\rm IV}}$ , and ${\rm Mg\, \small {\rm II}}$ ) with early data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and high-resolution spectra from the literature. Our initial results show some evidence that the ${\rm C\, \small {\rm IV}}$ abundance is higher than previous measurements and evidence for abundance evolution over time. The first full year of DESI observations will have over an order of magnitude more quasar spectra than this study. In a future paper, we will use those data to measure the growth of clustering and its impact on the Ly α forest, as well as test other DESI analysis infrastructure such as the pipeline noise estimates and the resolution matrix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Halo exclusion criteria impacts halo statistics

ABSTRACT Every halo-finding algorithm must make a critical yet relatively arbitrary choice: it must decide which structures are parent haloes, and which structures are subhaloes of larger haloes. We refer to this choice as percolation. We demonstrate that the choice of percolation impacts the statistical properties of the resulting halo catalogue. Specifically, we modify the halo-finding algorithm rockstar to construct three different halo catalogues from the same simulation data, each with identical mass definitions, but different choice of percolation. The resulting haloes exhibit significant differences in both halo abundance and clustering properties. Differences in the halo mass function reach 6 per cent for haloes of mass $10^{13}\ h^{-1}\ {\rm {\rm M}_{\odot }}$, larger than the few per cent precision necessary for current cluster abundance experiments such as the Dark Energy Survey. Comparable differences are observed in the large-scale clustering bias, while differences in the halo–matter correlation function reach 30 per cent on translinear scales. These effects can bias weak-lensing estimates of cluster masses at a level comparable to the statistical precision of current state-of-the-art experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

ProteoSign: an end-user online differential proteomics statistical analysis platform

Profiling of proteome dynamics is crucial for understanding cellular behavior in response to intrinsic and extrinsic stimuli and maintenance of homeostasis. Over the last 20 years, mass spectrometry (MS) has emerged as the most powerful tool for large-scale identification and characterization of proteins. Bottom-up proteomics, the most common MS-based proteomics approach, has always been challenging in terms of data management, processing, analysis and visualization, with modern instruments capable of producing several gigabytes of data out of a single experiment. Here, we present ProteoSign, a freely available web application, dedicated in allowing users to perform proteomics differential expression/abundance analysis in a userfriendly and self-explanatory way. Although several non-commercial standalone tools have been developed for post-quantification statistical analysis of proteomics data, most of them are not end-user appealing as they often require very stringent installation of programming environments, third-party software packages and sometimes further scripting or computer programming. To avoid this bottleneck, we have developed a user-friendly software platform accessible via a web interface in order to enable proteomics laboratories and core facilities to statistically analyse quantitative proteomics data sets in a resource-efficient manner. ProteoSign is available at http://bioinformatics.med.uoc.gr/ProteoSign and the source code at https://github.com/yorgodillo/ ProteoSign.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Calibration and Statistical Performance of Al2O3: C Optically Stimulated Luminescent Dosimeters With and Without Annealing Using a 137Cs Source

A series of experiments were conducted using commercially available Al 2 O 3 :C optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters to provide a technical basis for their precise calibration and statistical performance at irradiated air kerma doses between 0.02 mGy and 5 mGy using 137 Cs. This study examines the dose response linearity, studies the background signal for annealed dosimeters, and compares the statistical performance of dosimeters that were annealed and not annealed prior to their irradiation and readout. The average and standard deviation for the response of groups of dosimeters annealed and nonannealed prior to their irradiation were determined at each delivered dose. The batch of dosimeters that were annealed prior to their irradiation exhibited a coefficient of variation in its mean dose response below 10% when using three or more irradiation trials at each delivered air kerma dose between 0.02 mGy and 5m Gy. The reader calibration factor was calculated using the response of the annealed batch of dosimeters and was determined to be 756 ± 7 photomultiplier tube counts perm Gy. Best estimates of the individual sensitivity factors were determined to be between 0.79 and 1.12 for the annealed batch of dosimeters. The minimum number of irradiations required to accurately determine the sensitivity factor of each individual dosimeter is reported with the recommended reader and dosimeter calibration procedures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive Detection of Structural Differences using a Statistical Framework for Comparative Crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes underlie the functional cycles of proteins. Comparative crystallography can reveal these changes over time, over ligands, and over chemical and physical perturbations in atomic detail. A key difficulty, however, is that the resulting observations must be placed on the same scale by correcting for experimental factors. We recently introduced a Bayesian framework for correcting (scaling) X-ray diffraction data by combining deep learning with statistical priors informed by crystallographic theory. To scale comparative crystallography data, we here combine this framework with a multivariate statistical theory of comparative crystallography. By doing so, we find strong improvements in the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signal, and the binding of drug fragments.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗

DOE OSTI2026

Slow Quasiparticle Dynamics and Anyonic Statistics in a Fractional Quantum Hall Fabry-Pérot Interferometer

Anyons are two-dimensional particles with fractional exchange statistics that emerge as elementary excitations of fractional quantum Hall phases. Experimentally, their exchange statistics can be measured in the edge-state Fabry-Pérot interferometer, wherein the presence of 𝑁 𝑞⁢𝑝 localized anyons contributes a phase 𝑁 𝑞⁢𝑝⁢ 𝜃 𝑎 to the interference pattern where 𝜃 𝑎 is twice the exchange phase. Here we report the observation of large, hysteretic phase jumps in a monolayer graphene Fabry-Pérot interferometer at 𝜈 = 1/3. When the filling factor is increased from 𝜈 < 1/3 toward the center of the plateau, we observe phase slips with magnitude Δ⁢𝜃 ≈ 2⁢𝜋/3, consistent with the addition of individual quasiparticles to the interferometer bulk. These phase slips occur as instantaneous jumps in the interference signal, with intervals between the jumps indicating quasiparticle equilibration times exceeding 20 min. We use this long timescale to investigate the effect of changes in interferometer area 𝐴 𝐼 and 𝑁 𝑞⁢𝑝 independently at fixed magnetic field, revealing a striking memory effect in the phase slip magnitude. In particular, as the 𝜈 =1/3 plateau is approached from higher filling, we observed phase slips with Δ⁢𝜃 significantly larger than 2⁢𝜋/3 over the same range of gate voltage where quantized jumps are seen for increasing 𝜈. We discuss this asymmetry in terms of bulk-edge coupling of quasiparticles localized near the edge or in the bulk, and argue that this effect can be qualitatively reconciled with theoretical expectations for strongly interacting quasiparticles in the presence of weak disorder and strongly nonequilibrium charge dynamics. Besides providing a replication of interferometric measurements sensitive to 𝜃 𝑎 , our results highlight the key role played by charge dynamics on signatures of the anyon phase, and demonstrate that fractional quasiparticles can be indefinitely localized in nonequilibrium configurations.

anyons↗

DOE OSTI2019

Numerically exact full counting statistics of the energy current in the Kondo regime

In this study, we use the inchworm quantum Monte Carlo method to investigate the full counting statistics of particle and energy currents in a strongly correlated quantum dot. Our method is used to extract the heat fluctuations and entropy production of a quantum thermoelectric device, as well as cumulants of the particle and energy currents. The energy-particle current cross correlations reveal information on the preparation of the system and the interplay of thermal and electric currents. Finally, we demonstrate the signature of a crossover from Coulomb blockade to Kondo physics in the energy current fluctuations, and show how the conventional master equation approach to full counting statistics systematically fails to capture this crossover.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Eulerian and Lagrangian second-order statistics of superfluid 4 He grid turbulence

Here, we use particle-tracking velocimetry to study Eulerian and Lagrangian second-order statistics of superfluid 4 He grid turbulence. The Eulerian energy spectra at scales larger than the mean distance between quantum vortex lines behave classically with close to Kolmogorov-1941 scaling and are almost isotropic. The Lagrangian second-order structure functions and frequency power spectra, measured at scales comparable with the intervortex distance, demonstrate a sharp transition from nearly classical behavior to a regime dominated by the motion of quantum vortex lines. Employing the homogeneity of the flow, we verify a set of relations that connect various second-order statistical objects that stress different aspects of turbulent behavior, allowing a multifaceted analysis. We use the two-way bridge relations between Eulerian energy spectra and second-order structure functions to reconstruct the energy spectrum from the known second-order velocity structure function and vice versa. The Lagrangian frequency spectrum reconstructed from the measured Eulerian spectrum using the Eulerian-Lagrangian bridge differs from the measured Lagrangian spectrum in the quasiclassical range, which calls for further investigation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2014

Loops, sign structures, and emergent Fermi statistics in three-dimensional quantum dimer models

We introduce and study three-dimensional quantum dimer models with positive resonance terms. We demonstrate that their ground state wave functions exhibit a nonlocal sign structure that can be exactly formulated in terms of loops, and as a direct consequence, monomer excitations obey Fermi statistics. In conclusion, the sign structure and Fermi statistics in these “signful” quantum dimer models can be naturally described by a parton construction, which becomes exact at the solvable point.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical tools for a better optical model

Background: Modern statistical tools provide the ability to compare the information content of observables and provide a path to explore which experiments would be most useful to give insight into and constrain theoretical models. Purpose: Here we study three such tools in the context of nuclear reactions with the goal of constraining the optical potential. Method: The three statistical tools examined are (i) the principal component analysis, (ii) the sensitivity analysis based on derivatives, and (iii) the Bayesian evidence. We first apply these tools to a toy-model case, comparing the form of the imaginary part of the optical potential. Then we consider two different reaction observables, elastic angular distributions and polarization data for reactions on 48 Ca and 208 Pb at two different beam energies. Results: For the toy-model case, we find significant discrimination power in the sensitivities and the Bayesian evidence, showing clearly that the volume imaginary term is more useful to describe scattering at higher energies. When comparing between elastic cross sections and polarization data using realistic optical models, sensitivity studies indicate that both observables are roughly equally sensitive but the variability of the optical model parameters is strongly angle dependent. The Bayesian evidence shows some variability between the two observables, but the Bayes factor obtained is not sufficient to discriminate between angular distributions and polarization. Conclusions: From the cases considered, we conclude that, in general, elastic scattering angular distributions have similar impact in constraining the optical potential parameters compared with the polarization data. The angular ranges for the optimum experimental constraints can vary significantly with the observable considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Statistical analysis for the neutrinoless double-β-decay matrix element of 48 Ca

Neutrinoless double-β-decay (0⁢vββ) nuclear matrix elements (NME) are the object of many theoretical calculation methods, and are very important for analysis and guidance of a large number of experimental efforts. However, there are large discrepancies between the NME values provided by different methods. Here, in this paper, we propose a statistical analysis of the 48 Ca 0v⁢ββ NME using the interacting shell model, emphasizing the range of the NME probable values and their correlations with observables that can be obtained from the existing nuclear data. Based on this statistical analysis with three independent effective Hamiltonians, we propose a common probability distribution function for the 0⁢vββ NME, which has a range of (0.45–0.95) at 90% confidence level, and a mean value of 0.68.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physical implications of the extrapolation and statistical bootstrap of nucleon structure function ratios F 2 n F 2 p for mirror nuclei He 3 and H 3

A nuclear physics example of statistical bootstrap is used on the MARATHON nucleon structure function ratio data in the quark momentum fraction regions x B → 0 and x B → 1. The extrapolated F 2 ratio as quark momentum fraction x B → 1 is $\frac{F^n_2}{F^p_2}$ → 0.4 ± 0.05 and this value is compared to theoretical predictions. The extrapolated ratio when x B → 0 favors the simple model of isospin symmetry with the complete dominance of sea quarks at low momentum fraction. At high- x B , the proton quark distribution function ratio d/u is derived from the F 2 ratio and found to be d/u → 1/6. Our extrapolated values for both the $\frac{F^n_2}{F^p_2}$ ratio and the d/u parton distribution function ratio are within uncertainties of perturbative QCD values from quark counting, helicity conservation arguments, and a Dyson-Schwinger equation with a contact interaction model. In addition, it is possible to match the statistical bootstrap value to theoretical predictions by allowing two compatible models to act simultaneously in the nucleon wave function. Finally, one such example is nucleon wave functions composed of a linear combination of a quark-diquark state and a three-valence quark correlated state with coefficients that combine to give the extrapolated F 2 ratio at x B = 1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical and systematic uncertainties in extracting the source properties of neutron star-black hole binaries with gravitational waves

Gravitational waves emitted by neutron star black hole mergers encode key properties of neutron stars - such as their size, maximum mass and spins - and black holes. However, the presence of matter and the high mass ratio makes generating long and accurate waveforms from these systems hard to do with numerical relativity, and not much is known about systematic uncertainties due to waveform modeling. In this work, we simulate gravitational waves from neutron star black hole mergers by hybridizing numerical relativity waveforms produced with the SpEC code with a recent numerical relativity surrogate NRHybSur3dq8Tidal. These signals are analyzed using a range of available waveform families, and statistical and systematic errors are reported. We find that at a network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 30, statistical uncertainties are usually larger than systematic offsets, while at an SNR of 70 the two become comparable. The individual black hole and neutron star masses, as well as the mass ratios, are typically measured very precisely, though not always accurately at high SNR. At a SNR of 30 the neutron star tidal deformability can only be bound from above, while for louder sources it can be measured and constrained away from zero. All neutron stars in our simulations are non-spinning, but in no case we can constrain the neutron star spin to be smaller than ~0.4 (90% credible interval). Waveform families whose late inspiral has been tuned specifically for neutron star black hole signals typically yield the most accurate characterization of the source parameters. Their measurements are in tension with those obtained using waveform families tuned against binary neutron stars, even for mass ratios that could be relevant for both binary neutron stars and neutron star black holes mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistics and sensitivity of axion wind detection with the homogeneous precession domain of superfluid helium-3

The homogeneous precession domain (HPD) of superfluid He 3 has recently been identified as a detection medium which might provide sensitivity to the axion-nucleon coupling g a N N competitive with, or surpassing, existing experimental proposals. In this work, we make a detailed study of the statistical and dynamical properties of the HPD system in order to make realistic projections for a full-fledged experimental program. We include the effects of clock error and measurement error in a concrete readout scheme using superconducting qubits and quantum metrology. This work also provides a more general framework to describe the statistics associated with the axion gradient coupling through the treatment of a transient resonance with a nonstationary background in a time-series analysis. Incorporating an optimal data-taking and analysis strategy, we project a sensitivity approaching g a N N ∼ 10 − 12 GeV − 1 across a decade in axion mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗