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NASA NTRS1996

DKRZ workload analysis

The UniTree product as it is released emits a rather large amount of logging information into various log files, but this data typically is meant for operator information in difficult operational situations or directly for debugging purposes. It is strongly advised that the existing logging functionality in the standard release is advanced by adding messages with relevant parameters for every major event in the course of executing file or device oriented requests as described. This upgrade would be relatively easy in terms of implementation effort. The benefit is a complete sequence of transaction descriptions generated by external user requests or by internal administration commands. This collection of transaction records can be used for intensive statistics and performance evaluations. It is furthermore a perfect source to drive realistic system simulations to study the effects of possible hardware or software changes.

Fichter, Hartmut↗

NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Galaxy Cluster Gas Mass Fractions From Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Measurement: Constraints on Omega_M

Using sensitive centimeter-wave receivers mounted on the Owens Valley Radio Observatory and Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland-Association millimeter arrays, we have obtained interferometric measurements of the Sunyaev-Zei'dovich (SZ) effect toward massive galaxy clusters. We use the SZ data to determine the pressure distribution of the cluster gas and, in combination with published X-ray temperatures, to infer the gas mass and total gravitational mass of 18 clusters. The gas mass fraction, f~g, is calculated for each cluster, and is extrapolated to the fiducial radius r_{500} using the results of numerical simulations. The mean f_g within r_{500} is 0.081 + 0.009 - 0.011/(h_{100} (statistical uncertainty at 68% confidence level, assuming OmegaM=0.3, OmegaL=0.7). We discuss possible sources of systematic errors in the mean f 9 measurement. We derive an upper limit for OmegaM from this sample under the assumption that the mass composition of clusters within r_{500} reflects the universal mass composition: Omega_M h <Omega_B/f_g.The gas mass f on cosmology through the angular diameter distance and the r_{500} correction factors. For a flat universe (Omegal, = 1 - OmegaM) and h=0.7, we find the measured gas mass fractions are consistent with OmegaM less than 0.40, at 68% confidence. Including estimates of the baryons contained in galaxies and the baryons which failed to become bound during the cluster formation process, we find OmegaM\approximately 0.25.

Grego, Laura↗

NASA NTRS2002

The footprints of visual attention in the Posner cueing paradigm revealed by classification images

In the Posner cueing paradigm, observers' performance in detecting a target is typically better in trials in which the target is present at the cued location than in trials in which the target appears at the uncued location. This effect can be explained in terms of a Bayesian observer where visual attention simply weights the information differently at the cued (attended) and uncued (unattended) locations without a change in the quality of processing at each location. Alternatively, it could also be explained in terms of visual attention changing the shape of the perceptual filter at the cued location. In this study, we use the classification image technique to compare the human perceptual filters at the cued and uncued locations in a contrast discrimination task. We did not find statistically significant differences between the shapes of the inferred perceptual filters across the two locations, nor did the observed differences account for the measured cueing effects in human observers. Instead, we found a difference in the magnitude of the classification images, supporting the idea that visual attention changes the weighting of information at the cued and uncued location, but does not change the quality of processing at each individual location.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2007

Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/sq m per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Santer, B.D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Update on Ozone Profile Trends for the Period 2000 to 2016

Ozone profile trends over the period 2000 to 2016 from several merged satellite ozone data sets and from ground-based data measured by four techniques at stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change indicate significant ozone increases in the upper stratosphere, between 35 and 48 kilometers altitude (5 and 1 hectopascals). Near 2 hectopascals (42 kilometers), ozone has been increasing by about 1.5 percent per decade in the tropics (20 degrees S to 20 degrees N), and by 2 to 2.5 percent per decade in the 35 to 60 degree latitude bands of both hemispheres. At levels below 35 kilometers (5 hectopascals), 2000 to 2016 ozone trends are smaller and not statistically significant. The observed trend profiles are consistent with expectations from chemistry climate model simulations. This study confirms positive trends of upper stratospheric ozone already reported, e.g., in the WMO/UNEP (World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environmental Programme) Ozone Assessment 2014 or by Harris et al. (2015). Compared to those studies, three to four additional years of observations, updated and improved data sets with reduced drift, and the fact that nearly all individual data sets indicate ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, all give enhanced confidence. Uncertainties have been reduced, for example for the trend near 2 hectopascals in the 35 to 60 degree latitude bands from about plus or minus 5 percent (2 sigma) in Harris et al. (2015) to less than plus or minus 2 percent (2 sigma). Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of possible drifts and differences between various data sources is still required, as is a detailed attribution of the observed increases to declining ozone-depleting substances and to stratospheric cooling. Ongoing quality observations from multiple independent platforms are key for verifying that recovery of the ozone layer continues as expected.

chemistry climate model simulations↗

NASA NTRS2017

Navigating the Deployment and Downlink Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to Earth Observation (EO) missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral, angular and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM design includes a much larger number of variables than its monolithic counterpart, therefore, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has been often used for preliminary mission concept designs, to understand the trade-offs and interdependencies among the variables. MBSE models are complex because the various objectives a DSM is expected to achieve are almost always conflicting, non-linear and rarely analytical. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing a pre-Phase A tool called Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to initiate constellation mission design. The tool will allow users to explore the tradespace between various performance, cost and risk metrics (as a function of their science mission) and select Pareto optimal architectures that meet their requirements. This paper will describe the different types of constellations that TAT-C’s Tradespace Search Iterator is capable of enumerating (homogeneous Walker, heterogeneous Walker, precessing type, ad-hoc) and their impact on key performance metrics such as revisit statistics, time to global access and coverage. We will also discuss the ability to simulate phased deployment of the given constellations, as a function of launch availabilities and/or vehicle capability, and show the impact on performance. All performance metrics are calculated by the Data Reduction and Metric Computation module within TAT-C, which issues specific requests and processes results from the Orbit and Coverage module. Our TSI is also capable of generating tradespaces for downlinking imaging data from the constellation, based on permutations of available ground station networks - known (default) or customized (by the user). We will show the impact of changing ground station options for any given constellation, on data latency and required communication bandwidth, which in turn determines the responsiveness of the space system.

Nag, Sreeja↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Intermediate Wake of a Thick Flat Plate with a Circular Trailing Edge

The intermediate wake region of a thick flat plate with a circular trailing edge (TE) is investigated with a direct numerical simulation (DNS). The upper and lower separating boundary layers are both turbulent and are statistically identical; the resulting wake is symmetric in the mean. Earlier research dealt with the near/very-near wake of the same plate (x/D < 13.0, x is the streamwise distance from the center of the circular TE and D is the plate-thickness/TE-diameter). In the present investigation the emphasis is on the evolution of shed-vortex structure and turbulence intensity distributions with increasing x; the focus is on the region 20.0 < x/D < 40.0. Profile similarity in wake velocity statistics is explored.

Rai, Man Mohan↗

NASA NTRS2018

Wall-Resolved Large-Eddy Simulations of Transonic Shock-Induced Flow Separation

Wall-resolved large-eddy simulations of shock-induced flow separation over an axisymmet- ric bump for a Mach number of 0.875 and a chord-based Reynolds number of 2.763 million are performed. The incoming boundary layer has a momentum-thickness Reynolds number of 6600 at 1.5 chords upstream of the bump. The calculations, which employ up to 24 billion grid points, simulate the experimental model of Bachalo and Johnson (AIAA Journal, Vol. 24, No. 3, 1986), except that the tunnel walls are ignored and free air is assumed. The effects of domain span and grid resolution are examined along with the main flowfield features. The predicted shock position as well as separation and reattachment locations agree well with the experiment. Grid convergence is observed in the attached region well upstream of separation. Two-point azimuthal correlations suggest that a span of at least 20 degrees is needed in the attached region, while a 120-degree span might be barely large enough in the separated region. Computed root-mean-square surface pressure fluctuations at the shock foot reach about 5 percent of ambient pressure and the level at reattachment location drops to about half of the primary peak. Simulations reveal evidence of the low-frequency shock unsteadiness; however, a much longer statistical sample is needed to investigate this phenomenon.

Uzun, Ali↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wavelength Calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST)

The Sun has a well-known periodicity in sunspot number and magnetic field variation. The underlying cause of this 11-year cycle is not fully understood and has yet to be connected with those processes in other stellar objects. The Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST) is a sounding rocket payload being developed by Montana State University (MSU) alongside the Marshall Space Flight Center(MSFC) solar physics group. Scheduled to launch from White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in 2022, this instrument is unique in that it will provide the connection between stellar observatories with measurements of our Sun. It will achieve this through measuring high-resolution full-disk spectral irradiance. We aim to obtain a wavelength resolution R>10,000 in the 120 - 181 nm UltraViolet (UV) range, on par with that of the Hubble (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). This resolution goal will allow us to study the relatively low-temperature plasma in the chromosphere and lower corona with spectral accuracy down to 0.1 Å (a Doppler-shift of about±30 km/s). In addition, the Lyman Alpha(121 nm) line is known to saturate most CCD electronics. These factors illustrate the particular challenge of precise wavelength calibration for this spectral range. We are building a collimator in order to calibrate the FURST instrument under these strict spectral requirements. This paper will present the results of our simulation of the diagnostic lamp signal to be used for wavelength calibration. The simulation allows us to begin to account for photon noise, electronic readout noise, and statistical error. These in turn lead to the development of our pre- and post-launch calibration plans. Future work includes absolute radiometric and wavelength calibration with this new collimator. In addition, the ability of FURST to measure small Doppler-shifts will provide capabilities for planetary atmospheric scientists. This impact is coupled with the diverse international partnership created by the closely-knit Sounding Rocket teams around the globe. Sounding Rockets like FURST have an even broader impact, as they encourage future satellite missions under the prospect of long-term observations

FURST↗

NASA NTRS2002

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Gulf Coast Sea-Breeze

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 4- to 48-hour time scale. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 and applied on a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over Oklahoma. Two Friday periods during 2000 were selected for study, one during the warm season (May-June) and the other in the cold season (Nov-Dec). Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint show that the assimilation technique can improve numerical simulations on both regional and continental scales. Comparison of the simulated surface energy and water fluxes with observations from Energy Balance Bowen Ratio measurements taken at CART/ARM sites in the Southern Great Plains showed the assimilation technique produces a realistic argument of the Bowen ratio in both seasons. Additional runs with the Oregon State University land surface scheme as implemented within MM5 will be made and comparisons with assimilation results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Computations of Complex Three-Dimensional Turbulent Free Jets

Three-dimensional, incompressible turbulent jets with rectangular and elliptical cross-sections are simulated with a finite-difference numerical method. The full Navier- Stokes equations are solved at low Reynolds numbers, whereas at high Reynolds numbers filtered forms of the equations are solved along with a sub-grid scale model to approximate the effects of the unresolved scales. A 2-N storage, third-order Runge-Kutta scheme is used for temporary discretization and a fourth-order compact scheme is used for spatial discretization. Although such methods are widely used in the simulation of compressible flows, the lack of an evolution equation for pressure or density presents particular difficulty in incompressible flows. The pressure-velocity coupling must be established indirectly. It is achieved, in this study, through a Poisson equation which is solved by a compact scheme of the same order of accuracy. The numerical formulation is validated and the dispersion and dissipation errors are documented by the solution of a wide range of benchmark problems. Three-dimensional computations are performed for different inlet conditions which model the naturally developing and forced jets. The experimentally observed phenomenon of axis-switching is captured in the numerical simulation, and it is confirmed through flow visualization that this is based on self-induction of the vorticity field. Statistical quantities such as mean velocity, mean pressure, two-point velocity spatial correlations and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stress equations are presented to aid in the turbulence modeling of complex jets. Simulations of circular jets are used to quantify the effect of the non-uniform curvature of the non-circular jets.

Wilson, Robert V.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Performance of laminar-flow leading-edge test articles in cloud encounters

An extensive data bank of concurrent measurements of laminar flow (LF), particle concentration, and aircraft charging state was gathered for the first time. From this data bank, 13 flights in the simulated airline service (SAS) portion were analyzed to date. A total of 6.86 hours of data at one-second resolution were analyzed. An extensive statistical analysis, for both leading-edge test articles, shows that there is a significant effect of cloud and haze particles on the extent of laminar flow obtained. Approximately 93 percent of data points simulating LFC flight were obtained in clear air conditions; approximately 7 percent were obtained in cloud and haze. These percentages are consistent with earlier USAF and NASA estimates and results. The Hall laminar flow loss criteria was verified qualitatively. Larger particles and higher particle concentrations have a more marked effect on LF than do small particles. A particle spectrometer of a charging patch are both acceptable as diagnostic indicators of the presence of particles detrimental to laminar flow.

Davis, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solar Wind Implantation into Lunar Regolith II: Monte Carlo Simulations of Hydrogen Retention in a Surface with Defects and the Hydrogen (H, H2) Exosphere

Recently, the near-infrared observations of the OH veneer on the lunar surface by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) have been refined to constrain the OH content to 500-750 parts per million (ppm). The observations indicate diurnal variations in OH up to 200 ppm possibly linked to warmer surface temperatures at low latitude. We examine the M3 observations using a statistical mechanics approach to model the diffusion of implanted H in the lunar regolith. We present results from Monte Carlo simulations of the diffusion of implanted solar wind H atoms and the subsequently derived H and H2 exospheres.

Exosphere↗

NASA NTRS2000

SNW 2000 Proceedings. Oxide Thickness Variation Induced Threshold Voltage Fluctuations in Decanano MOSFETs: a 3D Density Gradient Simulation Study

We use the density gradient (DG) simulation approach to study, in 3D, the effect of local oxide thickness fluctuations on the threshold voltage of decanano MOSFETs in a statistical manner. A description of the reconstruction procedure for the random 2D surfaces representing the 'atomistic' Si-SiO2 interface variations is presented. The procedure is based on power spectrum synthesis in the Fourier domain and can include either Gaussian or exponential spectra. The simulations show that threshold voltage variations induced by oxide thickness fluctuation become significant when the gate length of the devices become comparable to the correlation length of the fluctuations. The extent of quantum corrections in the simulations with respect to the classical case and the dependence of threshold variations on the oxide thickness are examined.

Asenov, Asen↗