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At least 793 records · Page 44

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermal conductivity of MoS 2 monolayers from molecular dynamics simulations

Quantification of lattice thermal conductivity of two-dimensional semiconductors like MoS 2 is necessary for the design of electronic and thermoelectric devices, but direct experimental measurements on free-standing samples is challenging. Molecular dynamics simulations, with appropriate corrections, can provide a reference value for thermal conductivity for these material systems. Here, we construct a new empirical forcefield of the Stillinger-Weber form, parameterized to phonon dispersion relations, lattice constants and elastic moduli and we use it to compute a material-intrinsic thermal conductivity of 38.1 W/m-K at room temperature and estimate a maximum thermal conductivity of 85.4 W/m-K at T = 200 K. We also identify that phonon scattering by the large isotopic mass distribution of Mo and S contributes a significant correction (>45%) to the thermal conductivity at low temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distributed Barrier Certificates for Safe Operation of Inverter-Based Microgrids

Inverter-interfaced microgrids differ from the traditional power systems due to their lack of inertia. Vanishing timescale separation between voltage and frequency dynamics makes it critical that faster-timescale stabilizing control laws also guarantee by-construction the satisfaction of voltage limits during transients. In this article, we apply a barrier functions method to compute distributed active and reactive power setpoint control laws that certify satisfaction of voltage limits during transients. Using sum-of-squares optimization tools, we propose an algorithmic construction of these control laws. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the proposed method.

Kundu, Soumya↗

Aviation Safety Modeling and Simulation (ASMM) Propulsion Fleet Modeling: A Tool for Semi-Automatic Construction of CORBA-based Applications from Legacy Fortran Programs

Within NASA's Aviation Safety Program, NASA GRC participates in the Modeling and Simulation Project called ASMM. NASA GRC s focus is to characterize the propulsion systems performance from a fleet management and maintenance perspective by modeling and through simulation predict the characteristics of two classes of commercial engines (CFM56 and GE90). In prior years, the High Performance Computing and Communication (HPCC) program funded, NASA Glenn in developing a large scale, detailed simulations for the analysis and design of aircraft engines called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Three major aspects of this modeling included the integration of different engine components, coupling of multiple disciplines, and engine component zooming at appropriate level fidelity, require relatively tight coupling of different analysis codes. Most of these codes in aerodynamics and solid mechanics are written in Fortran. Refitting these legacy Fortran codes with distributed objects can increase these codes reusability. Aviation Safety s modeling and simulation use in characterizing fleet management has similar needs. The modeling and simulation of these propulsion systems use existing Fortran and C codes that are instrumental in determining the performance of the fleet. The research centers on building a CORBA-based development environment for programmers to easily wrap and couple legacy Fortran codes. This environment consists of a C++ wrapper library to hide the details of CORBA and an efficient remote variable scheme to facilitate data exchange between the client and the server model. Additionally, a Web Service model should also be constructed for evaluation of this technology s use over the next two- three years.

Sang, Janche↗

Cathodic Protection Modeling for Hanford Underground Double-Shell Tank Farms

Hanford stores millions of gallons of radioactive and chemically hazardous waste from the production of weapon materials in tank farms consisting of underground carbon-steel storage tanks surrounded by reinforced concrete. Six of these Hanford tank farms use double-shell storage tanks (DSTs). The DST farms were constructed from 1968 to 1986 with a planned 40–50 year design life, so some are already operating beyond their initial life expectancy. Ultrasonic testing (UT) has indicated significant thinning on the bottom of the secondary (outer) liner of these tanks, believed to arise from groundwater intrusion driving concrete side corrosion. There is no direct access to the steel/concrete interface between the tank and the concrete pad, making it difficult to apply a chemical-based mitigation strategy or to conduct repairs, but cathodic protection (CP) is a possible method to inhibit further concrete-side corrosion. Hanford already uses CP to protect below grade steel piping within the tank farms and connected to the tanks, but this system was not designed to protect the tank bottoms. CP design must account for the structures surrounding the DSTs, including the steel reinforcing bars (rebar) within the concrete pad and vault, various process lines, and the existing CP system. In this study, finite element analysis (FEA) modeling was carried out to simulate CP protection of 1) a single tank and CP anode to develop options for modeling the rebar and to compare to a simpler circuit model and 2) the entire Hanford AN tank farm as a representative example consisting of seven tanks, associated piping, and both existing and new CP anodes. Both circuit and FEA models predict that significant protective current could be delivered to the bottoms of the tanks with the addition of tank-protection anodes below the depth of the tanks. Simulations with only the existing pipe-protection anodes active confirmed that only a very small current to the tank bottoms is predicted under present conditions. Multiple simplified representations of the dome and wall rebar were tested to reduce the computational complexity of the tank-farm simulations, resulting in modeling the rebar as edge elements with a prescribed effective circumference that matches the real rebar surface area. The geometry of the rebar is also simplified into horizontal hoops around the tank walls and radial rebar over the dome with increased effective circumference to retain the target surface area. This simplification was found to greatly reduce the complexity and solution time of the models without large changes in current distributions, especially to the tank bottom. A range of values were tested for model parameters such as soil and concrete resistivities and polarization resistance to investigate their impact on the current and electric potential distributions. Depending on the parameters used, FEA simulations predict some risk of overprotection, particularly on the piping system; since overprotection can also lead to surface damage associated with hydrogen gas generation at the interface (e.g. hydrogen embrittlement or damage to coatings), this needs to be considered when refining the design of the new CP system. Comparison between the FEA models and the circuit model representation demonstrated that the circuit model could not match the predicted FEA current distribution, even when using the exact same surface areas. This discrepancy appeared to be at least partly attributable to the impact of the relative positions of the tank components and anodes to each other and to the ground surface. The FEA model accounts for the relative positions since it solves the governing equations in three dimensions, but the circuit model cannot account for the positioning. In particular, the circuit model underpredicts the current to the tank bottom and overpredicts the current to the dome compared to FEA for the baseline geometry. The FEA models omitted the electrically isolated rebar in the bottom concrete slab. However, a circuit based stray current model estimated that only 2.1% of the total current through the slab would stray into the rebar, corresponding to ~0.21 A for a target current density of 2 mA/ft2 to the tank bottom. The estimated corrosion driven by this amount of stray current is predicted to yield a lifetime of >400 years for the minimum rebar diameter, assuming an acceptable cross-section area loss of 10%.

d'Entremont, Anna [Savannah River National Laborat↗

High Pressure Water Stripping Using Multi-Orifice Nozzles

The use of multi-orifice rotary nozzles greatly increases the speed and stripping effectiveness of high pressure water blasting systems, but also greatly increases the complexity of selecting and optimizing the operating parameters. The rotational speed of the nozzle must be coupled with its transverse velocity as it passes across the surface of the substrate being stripped. The radial and angular positions of each orifice must be included in the analysis of the nozzle configuration. Orifices at the outer edge of the nozzle head move at a faster rate than the orifices located near the center. The energy transmitted to the surface from the impact force of the water stream from an outer orifice is therefore spread over a larger area than energy from an inner orifice. Utilizing a larger diameter orifice in the outer radial positions increases the total energy transmitted from the outer orifice to compensate for the wider distribution of energy. The total flow rate from the combination of all orifices must be monitored and should be kept below the pump capacity while choosing orifice to insert in each position. The energy distribution from the orifice pattern is further complicated since the rotary path of all the orifices in the nozzle head pass through the center section. All orifices contribute to the stripping in the center of the path while only the outer most orifice contributes to the stripping at the edge of the nozzle. Additional orifices contribute to the stripping from the outer edge toward the center section. With all these parameters to configure and each parameter change affecting the others, a computer model was developed to track and coordinate these parameters. The computer simulation graphically indicates the cumulative affect from each parameter selected. The result from the proper choices in parameters is a well designed, highly efficient stripping system. A poorly chosen set of parameters will cause the nozzle to strip aggressively in some areas while leaving the coating untouched in adjacent sections. The high pressure water stripping system can be set to extremely aggressive conditions allowing stripping of hard to remove adhesives, paint systems, and even cladding and chromate conversion coatings. The energy force can also be reduced to strip coatings from thin aluminum substrates without causing any damage or deterioration to the substrate's surface. High pressure water stripping of aerospace components has thus proven to be an efficient and cost effective method for cleaning and removing coatings.

Hoppe, David↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient numerical simulation of an electrothermal de-icer pad

In this paper, a new approach to calculate the transient thermal behavior of an iced electrothermal de-icer pad was developed. The method of splines was used to obtain the temperature distribution within the layered pad. Splines were used in order to create a tridiagonal system of equations that could be directly solved by Gauss elimination. The Stefan problem was solved using the enthalpy method along with a recent implicit technique. Only one to three iterations were needed to locate the melt front during any time step. Computational times were shown to be greatly reduced over those of an existing one dimensional procedure without any reduction in accuracy; the curent technique was more than 10 times faster.

Roelke, R. J.↗

A moment-conserving discontinuous Galerkin representation of the relativistic Maxwellian distribution

Kinetic simulations of relativistic gases and plasmas are critical for understanding diverse astrophysical and terrestrial systems, but the accurate construction of the relativistic Maxwellian, the Maxwell–Jüttner distribution, on a discrete simulation grid is challenging. Difficulties arise from the finite velocity bounds of the domain, which may not capture the entire distribution function, as well as errors introduced by projecting the function onto a discrete grid. Here, we present a novel scheme for iteratively correcting the moments of the projected distribution applicable to all grid-based discretizations of the relativistic kinetic equation. In addition, we describe how to compute the needed nonlinear quantities, such as Lorentz boost factors, in a discontinuous Galerkin scheme through a combination of numerical quadrature and weak operations. The resulting method accurately captures the distribution function and ensures that the moments match the desired values to machine precision.

astrophysical plasmas↗

An Efficient Reactive Force Field without Explicit Coordination Dependence for Studying Caustic Aluminum Chemistry

Reactive force fields (RFFs) are an expedient approach to sample chemical reaction paths in complex systems, relative to density functional theory. However, there is continued need to improve efficiencies, specifically in systems that have slow transverse degrees of freedom, as in highly viscous and superconcentrated solutions. Here, we present an RFF that is differentiated from current models (e.g., ReaxFF) by omitting explicit dependence on the atom coordination and employing a small parameter set based on Lennard-Jones, Gaussian, and Stillinger–Weber potentials. In this study, the model was parametrized from AIMD simulation data and is used to model aluminate reactivity in sodium hydroxide solutions with extensive validation against experimental radial distribution functions, computed free energy profiles for oligomerization, and formation energies. In conclusion, the model enables simulation of early stage Al(OH) 3 nucleation which has significant relevance to industrial processing of aluminum and has a computational cost that is reduced by 1 order of magnitude relative to ReaxFF.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mutual optical intensity propagation through non-ideal two-dimensional mirrors

The mutual optical intensity (MOI) model is a partially coherent radiation propagation tool that can sequentially simulate beamline optics and provide beam intensity, local degree of coherence and phase distribution at any location along a beamline. This paper extends the MOI model to non-ideal twodimensional (2D) optical systems, such as ellipsoidal and toroidal mirrors with 2D figure errors. Simulation results show that one can tune the trade-off between calculation efficiency and accuracy by varying the number of wavefront elements. The focal spot size of an ellipsoidal mirror calculated with 100 $\times$ 100 elements gives less than 0.4% deviation from that with 250 $\times$ 250 elements, and the computation speed is nearly two orders of magnitude faster. Effects of figure errors on 2D focusing are also demonstrated for a non-ideal ellipsoidal mirror and by comparing the toroidal and ellipsoidal mirrors. Finally, the MOI model is benchmarked against the multi-electron Synchrotron Radiation Workshop (SRW) code showing the model’s high accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Probabilistic Reasoner Based on Bayes Risk for Damage Detection in Structural Systems

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are used to inform operation of structural systems subject to loads and environments that may affect their integrity. SHM systems rely on continuous monitoring of the structure to determine its health state. These systems are often coupled with a model of the deployed structure to determine the consequences of changes in the system by forecasting the response to future states. These models, which may be thought of as digital twins, need to be updated to reflect the latest state of the structural system. This work makes use of an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input space to determine deviations from the training data input space distributions. This workflow enables domain shift detection to determine whether damage is present in the structure. The uncertainty metrics generated by this network are then used in a Bayes risk framework to design an optimal damage detector given cost and risk considerations. The approach is demonstrated on a computational example with simulated damage.

Najera-Flores, David [ATA Engineering, Inc.]↗

The spiral-compact galaxy pair AM 2208-251: Computer simulations versus observations

The system AM2208-251 is a roughly edge-on spiral extending east-west with a smaller round compact E system about 60 arcsec east of the spiral nucleus along the major axis of the spiral. Bertola, Huchtmeier, and Zeilinger (1990) have presented optical spectroscopic as well as single dish 21 cm observations of this system. Their spectroscopic data show, via emission lines lambda lambda 3727-29A, a rising rotation curve near the nucleus. These spectroscopic observations may indicate a tidal interaction in the system. In order to learn more about such pairs, the authors simulated the interaction using the computer model developed by Miller (1976 a,b, 1978) and modified by the authors (Byrd 1986, 1987, 1988). To do the simulation they need an idea of the mutual orbits of the two galaxies. Their computer model is a two-dimensional polar N-body program. It consists of a self-gravitating disk of particles, within an inert axially symmetric stabilizing halo potential. The particles are distributed in a 24(radial) by 36(azimuthal) polar grid. Self consistent calculations can be done only within the grid area. The disk is modeled with a finite Mestel disk, where all the particles initially move in circular orbits with constant tangential velocities (Mestel 1963), resulting in a flat rotation curve. The gas particles in the spiral's disk, which make up 30 percent of its mass, collide in the following manner. The number of particles in each bin of the polar grid is counted every time step. If it is greater than a given critical density, all the particles in the bin collide, obtaining in the result the same velocities, equal to the average for the bin. This process produces clumps of gas particles-the star formation sites. The authors suppress the collision in the inner part of the disk (within the circle r = 6) to represent the hole seen in the gas in the nuclear bulge of spirals. They thus avoid spurious effects due to collisions in that region. They also varied the size of the collisional bins, which did not affect their conclusions.

Klaric, Mario↗

Systems and methods for augmenting a satellite based navigation system with alternative position and timing data

Various technologies pertaining to integrating a positioning or timing solution from an alternative position, navigation, or timing (PNT) system into a satellite-based-navigation system are described herein. The PNT system generates a position/timing (P/T) solution that indicates a current position or current time of the PNT system. The P/T solution is provided as input to a simulation of a satellite constellation of the satellite-based-navigation system, and a constellation signal is generated based on the simulation and the P/T solution. The constellation signal is formatted according to a navigation signal format of the satellite-based-navigation system such that when the constellation signal is provided to a receiver of the satellite-based-navigation system, the receiver computes a P/T solution that indicates the current position or the current time identified by the PNT system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗

Multiscale method based on coupled lattice‐Boltzmann and Langevin‐dynamics for direct simulation of nanoscale particle/polymer suspensions in complex flows

Summary A hybrid computational method coupling the lattice‐Boltzmann (LB) method and a Langevin‐dynamics (LD) method is developed to simulate nanoscale particle and polymer (NPP) suspensions in the presence of both thermal fluctuation and long‐range many‐body hydrodynamic interactions (HIs). Brownian motion of the NPP is explicitly captured by a stochastic forcing term in the LD method. The LD method is two‐way coupled to the nonfluctuating LB fluid through a discrete LB forcing source distribution to capture the long‐range HI. To ensure intrinsically linear scalability with respect to the number of particles, a Eulerian‐host algorithm for short‐distance particle neighbor search and interaction is developed and embedded to LB‐LD framework. The validity and accuracy of the LB‐LD approach are demonstrated through several sample problems. The simulation results show good agreements with theory and experiment. The LB‐LD approach can be favorably incorporated into complex multiscale computational frameworks for efficiently simulating multiscale multicomponent particulate suspension systems such as complex blood suspensions.

Liu, Zixiang↗

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗