Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Simulation model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Oil Recovery Prediction for Polymer Flood Field Test of Heavy Oil on Alaska North Slope Via Machine Assisted Reservoir Simulation

The first ever polymer flood field pilot to enhance the recovery of heavy oils on the Alaska North Slope is ongoing. This study constructs and calibrates a reservoir simulation model to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding, as indicated by a significant decrease in water cut. Later, transmissibility contrasts are reinstated to replicate a water surge event observed in one of the producing wells during polymer flooding. This event may represent decreased injection conformance from fracture overextension; its anticipated occurrence in the other production well is included in the final forecast. The definition of polymer retention in the simulator incorporates the tailing effect reported in laboratory studies; this tailing effect is useful to the simultaneous history match of producing water cut and produced polymer concentration. The top 24 best-matched simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. The final forecast clearly demonstrates that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone. This exercise displays that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Therefore, caution is recommended in using basic waterflood simulation models to scope potential enhanced oil recovery projects.

Keith, Cody Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2006

Human Performance Modeling and Simulation for Launch Team Applications

This paper describes ongoing research into modeling and simulation of humans for launch team analysis, training, and evaluation. The initial research is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA)'s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) and NASA's Exploration Program and is focused on current and future launch team operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The paper begins with a description of existing KSC launch team environments and procedures. It then describes the goals of new Simulation and Analysis of Launch Teams (SALT) research. The majority of this paper describes products from the SALT team's initial proof-of-concept effort. These products include a nominal case task analysis and a discrete event model and simulation of launch team performance during the final phase of a shuttle countdown; and a first proof-of-concept training demonstration of launch team communications in which the computer plays most roles, and the trainee plays a role of the trainee's choice. This paper then describes possible next steps for the research team and provides conclusions. This research is expected to have significant value to NASA's Exploration Program.

Peaden, Cary J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling and simulation: A key to future defense technology

The purpose of this paper is to express the rationale for continued technological and scientific development of the modeling and simulation process for the defense industry. The defense industry, along with a variety of other industries, is currently being forced into making sacrifices in response to the current economic hardships. These sacrifices, which may not compromise the safety of our nation, nor jeopardize our current standing as the world peace officer, must be concentrated in areas which will withstand the needs of the changing world. Therefore, the need for cost effective alternatives of defense issues must be examined. This paper provides support that the modeling and simulation process is an economically feasible process which will ensure our nation's safety as well as provide and keep up with the future technological developments and demands required by the defense industry. The outline of this paper is as follows: introduction, which defines and describes the modeling and simulation process; discussion, which details the purpose and benefits of modeling and simulation and provides specific examples of how the process has been successful; and conclusion, which summarizes the specifics of modeling and simulation of defense issues and lends the support for its continued use in the defense arena.

Muccio, Anthony B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation Microphysics - Part 2

Ten 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3-D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, colocated UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rainwater contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (mu) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes but lower RWCs. Two-moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and, thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision-coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a mu of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing mu to have values greater than 0 may improve excessive size sorting in two-moment schemes. Underpredicted stratiform rain rates are associated with underpredicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. A limited domain size also prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region like the one observed from developing in CRMs, although LAMs also fail to produce such a region.

three dimensional models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification of a Monte Carlo binary collision model for simulating elastic and inelastic collisions in particle-in-cell simulations

We present the development and verification of a Monte Carlo binary collision model for simulating elastic and inelastic collisions in particle-in-cell simulations. We apply the corrected binary collision model originally developed for charged-particles collisions to all considered scattering channels, including Coulomb collisions, elastic neutral–neutral and charged–neutral collisions, ionization, excitation, and fusion. The model's implementation is described and verified through a series of simulations, including charged- and neutral-particle thermal equilibration, slowing of electrons in warm solid-density aluminum, collisional damping of a Langmuir wave, helium gas breakdown in an applied electric field, and thermonuclear and beam–target fusion. Then, we demonstrate the model within simulations of hydrogen plasma formation in the Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration as well as of the burning of aneutronic fusion fuel p-11B. The latter includes measurement of the fusion power density in a low-density plasma and fusion production due to the stopping of a proton ignitor beam in a compressed boron target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Simulation of Lithium Carbonate Reactive Vapor–Liquid Equilibria Using a Deep Potential Model

We developed a first-principles machine learning model for the reactive vapor–liquid phase behavior of molten Li 2 CO 3 . The model was trained on ab initio electronic density functional theory data using the Deep Potential (DP) methodology, and its accuracy was evaluated by comparing model predictions of density and viscosity to experimental measurements. Direct coexistence simulations with the DP model over time scales of tens of nanoseconds were used to observe equilibrium dissociation of Li 2 CO 3 into CO 2 residing primarily in the vapor phase and Li 2 O which remains dissolved in the liquid. The simulations covered a range of temperatures, overall system sizes, and vapor-to-liquid volume ratios. Results were analyzed in terms of the observed chemical composition of the liquid and vapor phases, product structure, and CO 2 partial pressures. In addition, we calculated equilibrium constants for the dissociation reaction by assuming ideal-solution behavior for the liquid. As expected on the basis of thermodynamic arguments and prior experiments for this system, the observed partial pressure of CO 2 in the gas phase depends on both the temperature and the ratio of vapor to liquid volumes, while the calculated equilibrium constants only depend on temperature. DP model predictions for the equilibrium constant of the reaction are generally consistent with the available experimental measurements. Furthermore, the present study establishes the validity of the DP methodology for the description of reactive, multiphase equilibria from first principles, with possible applications to many other systems of scientific and technological interest even in the absence of relevant experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upscaling Methods Applied to a Fine-Scale Reservoir Model

This study was conducted as part of the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project to evaluate how upscaling fine-scale simulation models to coarse-scale simulation models impacted the results. The focus was on the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) and its Morrow' B' Sandstone reservoir, specifically the west half of the field. Due to data limitations and the geologic characteristics of the surrounding area, the upscaling was limited to the west half of the FWU rather than a broader basinscale model. The primary aim was to explore how upscaling impacts numerical simulation models, particularly regarding CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and storage capacity predictions. Upscaling was necessary to reduce computational demands when transitioning from high-resolution geological models to coarser grids, as large-scale simulations with finer grids can be computationally prohibitive. This study expands on previous work by the SWP to understand how additional upscaling, applied to already fine-scale numerical simulation models, affects reservoir performance simulations (Ampomah, Balch, & Grigg, 2015). This is key to understanding how loss of resolution can affect coarsescale model results that may be used for large sensitivity analyses, uncertainty quantifications, and training data for machine learning applications.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1982

Snowmelt runoff modeling in simulation and forecasting modes with the Martinec-Mango model

The Martinec-Rango snowmelt runoff model was applied to two watersheds in the Rio Grande basin, Colorado-the South Fork Rio Grande, a drainage encompassing 216 sq mi without reservoirs or diversions and the Rio Grande above Del Norte, a drainage encompassing 1,320 sq mi without major reservoirs. The model was successfully applied to both watersheds when run in a simulation mode for the period 1973-79. This period included both high and low runoff seasons. Central to the adaptation of the model to run in a forecast mode was the need to develop a technique to forecast the shape of the snow cover depletion curves between satellite data points. Four separate approaches were investigated-simple linear estimation, multiple regression, parabolic exponential, and type curve. Only the parabolic exponential and type curve methods were run on the South Fork and Rio Grande watersheds for the 1980 runoff season using satellite snow cover updates when available. Although reasonable forecasts were obtained in certain situations, neither method seemed ready for truly operational forecasts, possibly due to a large amount of estimated climatic data for one or two primary base stations during the 1980 season.

Shafer, B.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Development of NASA's Models and Simulations Standard

From the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation, there were several NASA-wide actions that were initiated. One of these actions was to develop a standard for development, documentation, and operation of Models and Simulations. Over the course of two-and-a-half years, a team of NASA engineers, representing nine of the ten NASA Centers developed a Models and Simulation Standard to address this action. The standard consists of two parts. The first is the traditional requirements section addressing programmatics, development, documentation, verification, validation, and the reporting of results from both the M&S analysis and the examination of compliance with this standard. The second part is a scale for evaluating the credibility of model and simulation results using levels of merit associated with 8 key factors. This paper provides an historical account of the challenges faced by and the processes used in this committee-based development effort. This account provides insights into how other agencies might approach similar developments. Furthermore, we discuss some specific applications of models and simulations used to assess the impact of this standard on future model and simulation activities.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2004

Robust Timing Synchronization in Aeronautical Mobile Communication Systems

This work details a study of robust synchronization schemes suitable for satellite to mobile aeronautical applications. A new scheme, the Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer (MSWS), is devised and compared with existing schemes, including the traditional Early-Late Gate Synchronizer (ELGS), the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector (GZCD), and the Sliding Window Synchronizer (SWS). Performance of the synchronization schemes is evaluated by a set of metrics that indicate performance in digital communications systems. The metrics are convergence time, mean square phase error (or root mean-square phase error), lowest SNR for locking, initial frequency offset performance, midstream frequency offset performance, and system complexity. The performance of the synchronizers is evaluated by means of Matlab simulation models. A simulation platform is devised to model the satellite to mobile aeronautical channel, consisting of a Quadrature Phase Shift Keying modulator, an additive white Gaussian noise channel, and a demodulator front end. Simulation results show that the MSWS provides the most robust performance at the cost of system complexity. The GZCD provides a good tradeoff between robustness and system complexity for communication systems that require high symbol rates or low overall system costs. The ELGS has a high system complexity despite its average performance. Overall, the SWS, originally designed for multi-carrier systems, performs very poorly in single-carrier communications systems. Table 5.1 in Section 5 provides a ranking of each of the synchronization schemes in terms of the metrics set forth in Section 4.1. Details of comparison are given in Section 5. Based on the results presented in Table 5, it is safe to say that the most robust synchronization scheme examined in this work is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. A close second is its low-sample-rate cousin. The tradeoff between complexity and lowest mean-square phase error determines the rankings of the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector and both versions of the Early-Late Gate Synchronizer. The least robust models are the high and low-sample-rate Sliding Window Synchronizers. Consequently, the recommended replacement synchronizer for NASA's Advanced Air Transportation Technologies mobile aeronautical communications system is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. By incorporating this synchronizer into their system, NASA can be assured that their system will be operational in extremely adverse conditions. The quick convergence time of the MSWS should allow the use of high-level protocols. However, if NASA feels that reduced system complexity is the most important aspect of their replacement synchronizer, the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector would be the best choice.

Xiong, Fu-Qin↗
DOE OSTI2020

AFIP6-MkII and RERTR-12 Porosity Data Collection and Analysis for Modeling and Simulation

Gathering data for the improvement of nuclear fuel modeling and simulation efforts is the primary driver for this work. Mechanistic models allow for a better understanding of the material on a micro- and macrostructural level while saving time and money over traditional experiment efforts. Historically, summarized data and correlations are the inputs for empirical material models and model validation. When improving these models for nuclear fuels with experimental results, there is a lack of reliable data readily available. Experiments - RERTR-12 and AFIP6-MkII - were conducted to understand the irradiation behavior of metallic U-10Mo monolithic fuels for use in extreme reactor environments such as research reactors like the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) or the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Microstructural characteristics of fission gas pores (FGP) in each experiment are collected using an automated image analysis technique developed at the University of Florida and presented here. A series of statistical tests are performed to explore the reliability of the results, as well as understand where the data is lacking and what future data collection is necessary to provide sufficient information to assist modeling efforts. The focus is on the porosity, pore size, and eccentricity of FGPs formed during irradiation in three AFIP6-MkII samples and one RERTR-12 sample. From the analysis, it is clear there are substantial impacts of fission density on the pore structure, but there also exist also underlying connections between each sample and the behavior observed in the pores. Further analyses of the pre- and post-irradiation microstructure are needed to improve the understanding of these connections. An early method for microstructural data analysis is presented within and is currently being expanded to include other microstructure data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting large-scale pool fire dynamics using an unsteady flamelet- and large-eddy simulation-based model suite

A low-Mach, unstructured, large-eddy-simulation-based, unsteady flamelet approach with a generalized heat loss combustion methodology (including soot generation and consumption mechanisms) is deployed to support a large-scale, quiescent, 5-m JP-8 pool fire validation study. The quiescent pool fire validation study deploys solution sensitivity procedures, i.e., the effect of mesh and time step refinement on capturing key fire dynamics such as fingering and puffing, as mesh resolutions approach O(1) cm. A novel design-order, discrete-ordinate-method discretization methodology is established by use of an analytical thermal/participating media radiation solution on both low-order hexahedral and tetrahedral mesh topologies in addition to quadratic hexahedral elements. Here, the coupling between heat losses and the flamelet thermochemical state is achieved by augmenting the unsteady flamelet equation set with a heat loss source term. Soot and radiation source terms are determined using flamelet approaches for the full range of heat losses experienced in fire applications including radiative extinction. The proposed modeling and simulation paradigm are validated using pool surface radiative heat flux, maximum centerline temperature location, and puffing frequency data, all of which are predicted within 10% accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that under-resolved meshes predict an overly conservative radiative heat flux magnitude with improved comparisons as compared to a previously deployed hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes/eddy dissipation concept-based methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗
NASA NTRS1990

Modeling and simulation of the space platform power system

A comprehensive computer-aided modeling and simulation technique for the space platform power system is described. Large-signal and small-signal modeling is presented for the system components. The component models have been integrated to form the complete power system model. The system model is shown to be a powerful tool in simulating the behavior of the system with variation of illumination level and load. It can be used to study the bus regulation in each mode and to observe mode changes as the solar array is subjected to transitions from sunlight to eclipse and back to sunlight. System simulations show how the bus regulation is maintained by activating the shunt switching unit, the charger, or the discharger, depending on the available illumination level. The system model is suitable for verifying hardware results of for analyzing the performance of a proposed system where hardware testing is not feasible. The EASY5 dynamic analysis program is used as the host software for the modeling and simulation.

Patil, A. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

MEITNER Resource Team Modeling and Simulation Support to Holos-Quad Reactor Development (Final CRADA Report)

The main objective of this CRADA is to provide Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)’s modeling and simulation capabilities via ARPA-E's MEITNER (Modeling-Enhanced Innovations Trailblazing Nuclear Energy Reinvigoration) Resource Team (RT) arrangement to support the demonstration of the viability of HolosGen’s Holos-Quad reactor design. The Holos-Quad reactor design is an advanced reactor concept that incorporates many new design features, such as the neutron-coupled Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) in its core design, elimination of balance of plant (BOP) by direct integration of a helium Brayton cycle power conversion system with each SPM, among many other innovative features. The demonstration of the viability of such an innovative reactor design warrants iterations of modeling and simulation and testing. The purpose of this project is to utilize ANL’s modeling and simulation capabilities in nuclear reactor analysis and power conversion system analysis to inform HolosGen and the Design Team (DT) in the design and optimization of the Holos-Quad concept. The major work scopes of this project include: to investigate conceptual designs and materials for radiation shielding to protect personnel and internal components such as turbomachinery; Assess the the helium Brayton cycle power conversion system performance in both nominal and load following conditions; Investigate power conversion components and overall system performance; Identify control strategies to enable load following; Perform simulations of HolosGen’s subscale simulator and using available test data for code validation/benchmark purpose; Perform core thermal-hydraulics, safety analysis, and structural analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

Heffley, Robert K.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling and Simulation for Exercise Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Design

The microgravity environment that crew members experience on orbit presents a well-known health challenge, particularly when it comes to loss of muscle and bone mass. To counteract these negative effects, exercise countermeasures play a critical role in the daily routine of the crew on the International Space Station (ISS). To help inform requirements for upcoming exploration missions such as the Gateway Program, a new device, called the European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D), is being built by the European Space Agency through their contractor, the Danish Aerospace Company. The E4D is being demonstrated on the ISS and is unique from other current exercise devices in that it provides four separate modalities in a single device: resistive, cycle ergometry, seated aerobic rowing, and rope pulling. To support the integration of E4D on ISS, a passive Vibration Isolation and Stabilization (VIS) system was required by NASA, and this responsibility was given to the Johnson Space Center. This paper describes the end-to-end process of modeling, simulation, and analysis used to inform the mechanical design of the VIS system. The process begins with the collection of representative exerciser motion capture (MoCap) through ground-based testing with the developmental E4D in both the Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) Laboratory and the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility at the Johnson Space Center. These collected MoCap data are processed through human biomechanics modeling to create forcing functions as input to a multibody dynamics simulation of the combined E4D/VIS system, with numerous resulting outputs. These outputs include microgravity accelerations, overall system displacements, internal and transmitted loads, as well as collisions. Microgravity accelerations are compared for compliance against ISS requirements while displacements are used for sway space determinations on the design and volumetric constraints within the targeted module. Internal loads are supplied to the supporting stress analysis teams and external loads for structural loads and dynamics teams, both at NASA and ESA. Finally, contact and clearance analysis is performed using the simulation to eliminate potential design issues. To ensure that the elements of the multibody simulation were verified and validated, correlation against multiple VIS related ground hardware testbeds was performed and characterized. In addition to the isolation part of the VIS problem, stabilization is also key to the integrated performance and evaluation. Due to the difficulty in defining ISS requirements in this area, the stability of the exerciser was inspected via analysis. Loss of balance was defined analytically as occurring when the resultant force vector acting on the exerciser lies outside the base of support of the feet. Both the VIS and E4D teams have recently gone through their Critical Design Reviews (CDRs) and the iterative model-based approach has been integral to inform mechanical design, particularly in the case of the VIS. This same end-to-end approach is now being applied for the Gateway Program, where an Exploration Exercise Device (EED) derived from the E4D and notional VIS for the device are under concept development.

Countermeasures↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗