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DOE OSTI2026

Equipartition and the Temperature of Maximum Density of TIP4P/2005 Water

Here, we simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 to 318 K with time-steps δ = 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density–temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs is in excellent agreement with each other but differs from those obtained using time steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. For δt = 0.25 or 0.50 fs, the temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K and the density value is in close agreement with experiments. For δt = 1.00 fs, the TMD is 277.15 K, but the density value is shifted higher. For the other time steps considered here, the TMD is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water–water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid–vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent explanation that highlights the separation of the time scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, χ, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating χ is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time steps (≤0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation algorithms.

Asthagiri, Dilipkumar N. [Oak Ridge National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the energy threshold of phonon-mediated superconducting qubit detectors operated in an energy-relaxation sensing scheme

In recent years, the lack of a conclusive detection of weakly interacting massive particle dark matter at the 10 GeV/c 2 mass scale and above has encouraged development of low-threshold detector technology aimed at probing lighter dark matter candidates. Detectors based on Cooper-pair-breaking sensors have emerged as a promising avenue for this detection due to the low (meV-scale) energy required for breaking a Cooper pair in most superconductors. Among them, devices based on superconducting qubits are interesting candidates for sensing due to their observed sensitivity to broken Cooper pairs. Here, we have developed an end-to-end G 4 CMP -based simulation framework and have used it to evaluate performance metrics of qubit-based devices operating in a gate-based “energy relaxation” readout scheme, akin to those used in recent studies of qubit sensitivity to ionizing radiation. We find that for this readout scheme, the qubit acts as a phonon sensor with an energy threshold ranging down to ≃ 0.4 eV for near-term performance parameters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally efficient evaluation of optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operating range with accelerated multizone engine cycle simulation

The very intensive calculations necessary to define a performance map requiring evaluation of over a hundred individual operating points can be efficiently conducted with accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation, leading to a definition of regions of acceptable and optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operation. Accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation has the virtue of enabling accurate evaluation of many operating conditions based on thermal stratification data from a single fluid mechanics run at motored conditions. This is possible because thermal stratification is more sensitive to engine geometry than to operating conditions. In this article, accuracy of accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation is demonstrated by comparison with experimental data for iso-octane homogeneous charge compression ignition operation over a broad range of lean equivalence ratios (0.14–0.28). The validated accelerated multizone for engine cycle simulation model is then applied to generating a performance map for an engine controlled by appropriately adjusting equivalence ratio and internal exhaust gas recirculation. Regions of acceptable and optimum combustion are identified. It is finally demonstrated that while indicated mean effective pressure remains low for optimum homogeneous charge compression ignition operation (1–4 bar), this is sufficient for a large fraction of typical driving in light-duty vehicles. Much driving including idle can therefore be done in homogeneous charge compression ignition mode at high efficiency and low (essentially zero) NOx and particulate matter emissions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atomistic Materials Modeling of High-Pressure Hydrogen Interactions in Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) Rubber

Elastomeric rubbers serve a vital role as sealing materials in the hydrogen storage and transport infrastructure. With applications including O-rings and hose-liners, these components are exposed to pressurized hydrogen at a range of temperatures, cycling rates, and pressure extremes. Cyclic (de)pressurization is known to degrade these materials through the process of cavitation. This readily visible failure mode occurs as a fracture or rupture of the material and is due to the oversaturated gas localizing to form gas bubbles. Computational modeling in the Hydrogen Materials Compatibility Program (H-Mat), co-led by Sandia National Laboratories and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, employs multi-scale simulation efforts to build a predictive understanding of hydrogen-induced damage in materials. Modeling efforts within the project aim to provide insight into how to formulate materials that are less sensitive to high-pressure hydrogen-induced failure. In this document, we summarize results from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, which make predictive assessments of the effects of compositional variations in the commonly used elastomer, ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis Project: Sensitivity Analysis Using Dakota

The State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) project has focused on best estimate analyses and uncertainty analysis for postulated accidents at specific nuclear power plants. The consequences of these accidents are estimated using the simulation tools MELCOR and MACCS. To understand which uncertain input variables are important to determining these consequences, analysts have performed sensitivity analyses. The tool used to perform these sensitivity analyses in previous SOARCA work, CompModSA, is no longer supported. Therefore, the current work focuses on migrating these analyses to another tool and evaluating its performance. Dakota, which is a tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories, is used in this work. Sensitivity results are created for three analyses from the SOARCA Surry UA. Though CompModSA and Dakota vary slightly in their algorithms and implementation, their sensitivity results generally agree, which gives confidence in the Dakota approach and increases confidence in the original analyses. It is likely that this methodology is extendable to the rest of SOARCA analyses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining the Higgs potential with neural simulation-based inference for di-Higgs production

Determining the form of the Higgs potential is one of the most exciting challenges of modern particle physics. Higgs pair production directly probes the Higgs self-coupling and should be observed in the near future at the High-Luminosity LHC. We explore how to improve the sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model through per-event kinematics for di-Higgs events. In particular, we employ machine learning through simulation-based inference to estimate per-event likelihood ratios and gauge potential sensitivity gains from including this kinematic information. In terms of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, we find that adding a limited number of observables can help to remove degeneracies in Wilson coefficient likelihoods and significantly improve the experimental sensitivity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field Measurement and Analysis of Frequency and RoCoF for Low-Inertia Power Systems

The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast predictions of liquid-phase acid-catalyzed reaction rates using molecular dynamics simulations and convolutional neural networks

The rates of liquid-phase, acid-catalyzed reactions relevant to the upgrading of biomass into high-value chemicals are highly sensitive to solvent composition and identifying suitable solvent mixtures is theoretically and experimentally challenging. We show that the complex atomistic configurations of reactant–solvent environments generated by classical molecular dynamics simulations can be exploited by 3D convolutional neural networks to enable accurate predictions of Brønsted acid-catalyzed reaction rates for model biomass compounds. We develop a 3D convolutional neural network, which we call SolventNet, and train it to predict acid-catalyzed reaction rates using experimental reaction data and corresponding molecular dynamics simulation data for seven biomass-derived oxygenates in water–cosolvent mixtures. We show that SolventNet can predict reaction rates for additional reactants and solvent systems an order of magnitude faster than prior simulation methods. This combination of machine learning with molecular dynamics enables the rapid, high-throughput screening of solvent systems and identification of improved biomass conversion conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.12 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user’s manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.15 User's Manual

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updates to the NuMI Flux Simulation at MicroBooNE (V.1.0)

The NuMI flux prediction being used by all experiments at Fermilab that are sensitive to the NuMI beam is based on Geant v4.9.2.03 (G4.9) and uses the default FTFP-BERT physics list with no custom cross sections. In order to correct these predictions to match world data, PPFX, the Package to Predict the FluX, is used to reweight the flux prediction. In kinematic regions of overlap between the prediction and data, mainly NA49 measurements are used to correct for various hadron production processes. Specifcally, PPFX looks at the entire ancestry chain of the neutrino, up to the incident 120 GeV proton beam, and applies corrections for various hadron interactions based on said data. These corrections are implemented as a function of the Feynman-x (x F ) and transverse momentum (p T ) of the incident hadron.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Forward Analytic Model of Neutron Time-of-Flight Signals for Inferring Ion Temperatures from MagLIF Experiments

A forward analytic model is required to rapidly simulate the neutron time-of-flight (nToF) signals that result from magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments at Sandia’s Z Pulsed Power Facility. Various experimental parameters, such as the burn-weighted fuel-ion temperature and liner areal density, determine the shape of the nToF signal and are important for characterizing any given MagLIF experiment. Extracting these parameters from measured nToF signals requires an appropriate analytic model that includes the primary deuterium-deuterium neutron peak, once-scattered neutrons in the beryllium liner of the MagLIF target, and direct beamline attenuation. Here, mathematical expressions for this model were derived from the general-geometry time- and energy-dependent neutron transport equation with anisotropic scattering. Assumptions consistent with the time-of-flight technique were used to simplify this linear Boltzmann transport equation into a more tractable form. Models of the uncollided and once-collided neutron scalar fluxes were developed for one of the five nToF detector locations at the Z-Machine. Numerical results from these models were produced for a representative MagLIF problem and found to be in good agreement with similar neutron transport simulations. Twenty experimental MagLIF data sets were analyzed using the forward models, which were determined to only be significantly sensitive to the ion temperature. The results of this work were also found to agree with values obtained separately using a zero scatter analytic model and a high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, inherent difficulties in this and similar techniques are identified, and a new approach forward is suggested.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Precipitation Bias Sensitivities in E3SM-Multi-Scale Modeling Framework From a Dilution Framework

We investigate a set of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) (E3SM-MMF) simulations that vary the dimensionality and momentum transport configurations of the embedded cloud-resolving models (CRMs), including unusually ambitious 3D configurations. Issues endemic to all MMF simulations include too much Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall and too little over the Amazon. Systematic MMF improvements include more on-equatorial rainfall across the Warm Pool. Interesting sensitivities to the CRM domain are found in the regional time-mean precipitation pattern over the tropics. The 2D E3SM-MMF produces an unrealistically rainy region over the northwestern tropical Pacific; this is reduced in computationally ambitious 3D configurations that use 1,024 embedded CRM grid columns per host cell. Trajectory analysis indicates that these regional improvements are associated with desirably fewer tropical cyclones and less extreme precipitation rates. To understand why and how the representation of precipitation improved in 3D, we propose a framework that dilution is stronger in 3D. This viewpoint is supported by multiple indirect lines of evidence, including a delayed moisture-precipitation pickup, smaller precipitation efficiency, and amplified convective mass flux profiles and more high clouds. We also demonstrate that the effects of varying embedded CRM dimensionality and momentum transport on precipitation can be identified during the first few simulated days, providing an opportunity for rapid model tuning without high computational cost. Meanwhile the results imply that other less computationally intensive ways to enhance dilution within MMF CRMs may also be strategic tuning targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design of high-pressure iron Rayleigh–Taylor strength experiments for the National Ignition Facility

Iron is an important metal, scientifically and technologically. It is a common metal on Earth, forming the main constituent of the planet's inner core, where it is believed to be in solid state at high pressure and high temperature. It is also the main component of many important structural materials used in quasistatic and dynamic conditions. Laser-driven Rayleigh–Taylor instability provides a means of probing material strength at high pressure and high temperature. The unavoidable phase transition in iron at relatively low pressure induces microstructural changes that ultimately affect its strength in this extreme regime. This inevitable progression can make it difficult to design experiments and understand their results. Here, we address this challenge with the introduction of a new approach: a direct-drive design for Rayleigh–Taylor strength experiments capable of reaching up to 400 GPa over a broad range of temperatures. We use 1D and 2D hydrodynamic simulations to optimize target components and laser pulse shape to induce the phase transition and compress the iron to high pressure and high temperature. At the simulated pressure–temperature state of 350 GPa and 4000 K, we predict a ripple growth factor of 3–10 depending on the strength with minimal sensitivity to the equation of state model used. The growth factor is the primary observable, and the measured value will be compared to simulations to enable the extraction of the strength under these conditions. These experiments conducted at high-energy laser facilities will provide a unique way to study an important metal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗