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At least 793 records · Page 44

Monthly and seasonal occurrences of potential flash flood-producing rains determined from Manually Digitized Radar data

An analysis is conducted of a small 4-year climatological data base of Manually Digitized Radar (MDR) data to infer the monthly and seasonal distributions of the relative frequency of occurrence of potential flash flood-producing rains over the Central and Eastern U.S. Some possible meteorological mechanisms for producing potential flash flooding rains are discussed in terms of the relative maxima and minima in the monthly and seasonal frequency distributions over the MDR network. Frequencies were found to be generally higher in more southern locations and lower farther north in all months and seasons. However, most locations experienced an annual cycle in the frequency of occurrence with maxima in summer and minima in winter. In given seasons and months, local areas of maximum and minimum occurrences may be related to quasi-stationary meteorological processes that trigger and organize intense convection over a common area.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Interactions Between the Amazonian Rainforest and Cumuli Clouds: A Large‐Eddy Simulation, High‐Resolution ECMWF, and Observational Intercomparison Study

Abstract The explicit coupling at meter and second scales of vegetation's responses to the atmospheric‐boundary layer dynamics drives a dynamic heterogeneity that influences canopy‐top fluxes and cloud formation. Focusing on a representative day during the Amazonian dry season, we investigate the diurnal cycle of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide at the canopy top, and the transition from clear to cloudy conditions. To this end, we compare results from a large‐eddy simulation technique, a high‐resolution global weather model, and a complete observational data set collected during the GoAmazon14/15 campaign. The overall model‐observation comparisons of radiation and canopy‐top fluxes, turbulence, and cloud dynamics are very satisfactory, with all the modeled variables lying within the standard deviation of the monthly aggregated observations. Our analysis indicates that the timing of the change in the daylight carbon exchange, from a sink to a source, remains uncertain and is probably related to the stomata closure caused by the increase in vapor pressure deficit during the afternoon. We demonstrate quantitatively that heat and moisture transport from the subcloud layer into the cloud layer are misrepresented by the global model, yielding low values of specific humidity and thermal instability above the cloud base. Finally, the numerical simulations and observational data are adequate settings for benchmarking more comprehensive studies of plant responses, microphysics, and radiation.

Vilà‐Guerau de Arellano, J.↗

Nitrogen availability and summer drought, but not N:P imbalance, drive carbon use efficiency of a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem

All ecosystems contain both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon (C). A change in their balance of net and gross ecosystem carbon uptake, ecosystem-scale carbon use efficiency (CUE ECO ), is a change in their ability to buffer climate change. However, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is increasing N availability, potentially shifting terrestrial ecosystem stoichiometry towards phosphorus (P) limitation. Depending on how gross primary production (GPP, plants alone) and ecosystem respiration (R ECO , plants and heterotrophs) are limited by N, P or associated changes in other biogeochemical cycles, CUE ECO may change. Seasonally, CUE ECO also varies as the multiple processes that control GPP and respiration and their limitations shift in time. We worked in a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem (locally called ‘dehesa’) characterized by mild, wet winters and summer droughts. We examined CUE ECO from eddy covariance fluxes over 6 years under control, +N and + NP fertilized treatments on three timescales: annual, seasonal (determined by vegetation phenological phases) and 14-day aggregations. Finer aggregation allowed consideration of responses to specific patterns in vegetation activity and meteorological conditions. We predicted that CUE ECO should be increased by wetter conditions, and successively by N and NP fertilization. Milder and wetter years with proportionally longer growing seasons increased CUE ECO , as did N fertilization, regardless of whether P was added. Using a generalized additive model, whole ecosystem phenological status and water deficit indicators, which both varied with treatment, were the main determinants of 14-day differences in CUE ECO . The direction of water effects depended on the timescale considered and occurred alongside treatment-dependent water depletion. Overall, future regional trends of longer dry summers may push these systems towards lower CUE ECO .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Electron temperatures in the F region of the ionosphere - Theory and observations

The theory and observations relating to electron temperatures in the F region of the ionosphere are reviewed. The review is divided into three basic parts. In the first part the theory concerning electron heating, cooling, and energy transport processes is reviewed, and all the relevant expressions are updated. In the second part the behavior of F region electron temperatures, as measured by satellites, rockets, and incoherent scatter radars, is discussed. This portion covers electron temperature variations with altitude, latitude, local time, season, geomagnetic activity, and solar cycle. The third part is primarily devoted to a discussion of the various attempts to compare measured and calculated F region electron temperatures.

Schunk, R. W.↗

Qualification testing of General Electric 50 Ah nickel-cadmium cells with Pellon 2536 separator and passivated positive plates

Forty-two 50 Ah nickel-cadmium cells were delivered to the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) by General Electric (GE) in February, 1985 for the purpose of evaluating and qualifying a nonwoven nylon separator material, Pellon 2536, and the GE positive plate nickel attack control gas passivation process. Testing began May, 1985 at the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC) in Crane, Indiana with GSFC standard initial evaluation tests. Life cycling in both Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) began in July, 1985 with approximately 6500 LEO cycles and three GEO eclipse seasons completed. After early problems in maintaining test pack temperature control, all packs are performing well but are exhibiting higher than normal charge voltage characteristics.

Morrow, George W.↗

Components of interannual ozone change based on Nimbus 7 TOMS data

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the latitude and seasonal dependences of the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and anthropogenic trend components of stratospheric total ozone change using 13.2 years of Nimbus 7 TOMS data. The characteristics of the linear trend component are in agreement with earlier studies. The QBO regression coefficient is significantly different from zero at high southern latitudes in the Austral spring supporting earlier evidence that the Antarctic ozone depletion is modulated by the QBO. The existence of a solar cycle component is indicated by empirical studies of model residuals and by the approximate agreement of the derived global mean solar coefficient amplitude with photochemical calculations. Initial estimates for the latitude dependence of the solar coefficient suggest higher amplitudes with increasing latitude, especially in the Southern Hemisphere in spring. The statistical model predicts a return to more rapid ozone depletions during the next 4 years as solar minimum is approached.

Hood, Lon L.↗

The 1991 V603 Aquilae campaign - Superhumps and P-dots

The results are reported of an extensive 1991 campaign to determine an accurate value of the period of the old nova V603 Aquilae, free from aliasing, in at least one season. Phase drift of +/- 0.3 cycles around the mean period is present on a time scale of about six months. The period is shown to be unstable. There is an interesting resemblance of the 0.146 day photometric signal to the 'superhumps' of dwarf novae. However, the light variations are irregular and not similar to those of dwarf novae. The relationship between observed orbital and superhump period is studied, and it is predicted that V603 Aql is the first of many noneruptive cataclysmic variables which will be recognized as showing superhumps.

Patterson, Joseph↗

A toy model of sea ice growth

My purpose here is to present a simplified treatment of the growth of sea ice. By ignoring many details, it is possible to obtain several results that help to clarify the ways in which the sea ice cover will respond to climate change. Three models are discussed. The first deals with the growth of sea ice during the cold season. The second describes the cycle of growth and melting for perennial ice. The third model extends the second to account for the possibility that the ice melts away entirely in the summer. In each case, the objective is to understand what physical processes are most important, what ice properties determine the ice behavior, and to which climate variables the system is most sensitive.

Thorndike, Alan S.↗

Recovery of the Disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

There occurred a unique and significant disruption of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16. Here we document the return of the QBO to its normal downward phase speed and period based on Singapore soundings, MERRA-2 re-analysis (Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications), and a simple QBO model. Daily averaged zonal winds from 100-10 hPa are used to characterized the behavior of the QBO's amplitude and phase as seen in the first two EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). These EOFs capture the QBO structure and evolution during the pre-disruption, disruption, and post-disruption times. Results show that the amplitude and phase returned to normal by June 2016, however the post-disruption QBO phase was delayed relative to the pre-disruption phase by four tenths of a QBO cycle (~11 months). A rapid, seasonal, phase shift of this magnitude is shown to be unique in the QBO observational record.

Coy, Lawrence↗

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗

Space-Time Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Variations

The space-time features of rainfall diurnal variation of precipitation are systematically investigated by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation products retrieved from TRMM microwave imager (TMI), precipitation radar (PR) and TMI/PR combined algorithms. Results demonstrate that diurnal variability of precipitation is obvious over tropical regions. The dominant feature of rainfall diurnal cycle over, ocean is that there is consistent rainfall peak in early morning, while there is a consistent rainfall peak in mid-late afternoon over land. The seasonal variation on intensity of rainfall diurnal cycle is clearly evidenced. Horizontal distributions of rainfall diurnal variations indicate that there is a clearly early-morning peak with a secondary peak in the middle-late afternoon in ocean rainfall at latitudes dominated by large-scale convergence and deep convection. There is also an analogous early-morning peak in land rainfall along with a stronger afternoon peak forced by surface heating. Amplitude analysis shows that the patterns and its evolution of rainfall diurnal cycle are very close to rainfall distribution pattern and its evolution. These results indicate that rainfall diurnal variations are strongly associated with large-scale convective systems and climate weather systems. Phase studies clearly present the regional and seasonal features of rainfall diurnal activities. Further studies on convective and stratiform rainfall show different characteristics of diurnal cycles. Their spatial and temporal variations of convective and stratiform rainfall indicate that mechanisms for rainfall diurnal variations vary with time and space.

Yang, Song↗

Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

On the Observed Changes in Upper Stratospheric and Mesospheric Temperatures from UARS HALOE

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been extended and re-analyzed for the period of 1991-2005 and for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere in 10-degree wide latitude zones from 60S to 60N. Even though sampling from a solar occultation experiment is somewhat limited, it is shown to be quite adequate for developing both the seasonal and longer-term variations in T(p). Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used in the re-analyses for the seasonal and the significant interannual, solar cycle (SC-like or decadal-scale), and linear trend terms. A simple SC-like term of 11-yr period was fitted to the time series residuals after accounting for the seasonal and interannual terms. Highly significant SC-like responses were found for both the upper mesosphere and the upper stratosphere. The phases of these SC-like terms were checked for their continuity with latitude and pressure-altitude, and in almost all cases they are directly in-phase with that of standard proxies for the solar flux variations. The analyzed, max minus min, responses at low latitudes are of order 1 K, while at middle latitudes they are as large as 3 K in the upper mesosphere. Highly significant, linear cooling trends were found at middle latitudes of the middle to upper mesosphere (about -2 K/decade), at tropical latitudes of the middle mesosphere (about -1 K/decade), and at 2 hPa (or order -1 K/decade).

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗

Highlights of the First 15 Months of Aquarius Salinity Measurements

Aquarius satellite salinity measurements are resolving the major global and regional spatial patterns, and temporal variations, since the start of routine data collection on 25 August 2011. This description includes the principal seasonal variations over the first annual cycle as observed by the mission. In particular, we identify the evolution of low salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic and Pacific intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ), major river outflows such as the Amazon, a seasonal low salinity anomaly in the Panama bight, and other features. We also explore the links that the salinity variations have with precipitation and surface currents. We then will describe the variations related to the presently evolving 2012 El Nino, now evident, as it progresses through the summer and fall 2012. We conclude with a brief summary of the Aquarius data products and validation

Lagerloef, Gary S. E.↗

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗

Aboveground Wood Production Is Sustained in the First Growing Season after Phloem-Disrupting Disturbance

Carbon (C) cycling processes are particularly dynamic following disturbance, with initial responses often indicative of longer-term change. In northern Michigan, USA, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) to identify the processes that sustain or lead to the decline of C cycling rates across multiple levels (0, 45, 65 and 85% targeted gross leaf area index loss) of disturbance severity and, in response, to separate disturbance types preferentially targeting large or small diameter trees. Simulating the effects of boring insects, we stem girdled > 3600 trees below diameter at breast height (DBH), immediately and permanently disrupting the phloem. Weekly DBH measurements of girdled and otherwise healthy trees (n > 700) revealed small but significant increases in daily aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) in the 65 and 85% disturbance severity treatments that emerged six weeks after girdling. However, we observed minimal change in end-of-season leaf area index and no significant differences in annual ANPP w among disturbance severities or between disturbance types, suggesting continued C fixation by girdled trees sustained stand-scale wood production in the first growing season after disturbance. We hypothesized higher disturbance severities would favor the growth of early successional species but observed no significant difference between early and middle to late successional species’ contributions to ANPP w across the disturbance severity gradient. We conclude that ANPP w stability immediately following phloem disruption is dependent on the continued, but inevitably temporary, growth of phloem-disrupted trees. Our findings provide insight into the tree-to-ecosystem mechanisms supporting stand-scale wood production stability in the first growing season following a phloem-disrupting disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Qualification of Fiber Optic Cables for Martian Extreme Temperature Environments

Means have been developed for enabling fiber optic cables of the Laser Induced Breakdown Spectrometer instrument to survive ground operations plus the nominal 670 Martian conditions that include Martian summer and winter seasons. The purpose of this development was to validate the use of the rover external fiber optic cabling of ChemCam for space applications under the extreme thermal environments to be encountered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. Flight-representative fiber optic cables were subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling of the same diurnal depth (or delta T) as expected in flight, but for three times the expected number of in-flight thermal cycles. The survivability of fiber optic cables was tested for 600 cumulative thermal cycles from -130 to +15 C to cover the winter season, and another 1,410 cumulative cycles from -105 to +40 C to cover the summer season. This test satisfies the required 3 times the design margin that is a total of 2,010 thermal cycles (670 x 3). This development test included functional optical transmission tests during the course of the test. Transmission of the fiber optic cables was performed prior to and after 1,288 thermal cycles and 2,010 thermal cycles. No significant changes in transmission were observed on either of the two representative fiber cables subject through the 3X MSL mission life that is 2,010 thermal cycles.

Ramesham, Rajeshuni↗