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DOE OSTI2020

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the distinctively skewed and heavy-tailed aspects of the probability distributions of daily weather anomalies are ignored or misrepresented. Departures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world. This further complicates the problem of detecting changes in tail probabilities from historical records of limited length and accuracy. A possible solution is to exploit the fact that the salient non-Gaussian features of the observed distributions are captured by so-called stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distributions that include Gaussian distributions as special cases. SGS distributions are associated with damped linear Markov processes perturbed by asymmetric stochastic noise and as such represent the simplest physically based prototypes of the observed distributions. The tails of SGS distributions can also be directly linked to generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The Markov process model can be used to provide rigorous confidence intervals and to investigate temporal persistence statistics. The procedure is illustrated for assessing changes in the observed distributions of daily wintertime indices of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors over the period 1872–2011. No significant changes in these indices are found from the first to the second half of the period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Seasonal Sudden Stratospheric Warming Climatology Based on Polar Vortex Statistics

This report explores the climatological frequency distribution of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). General circulation models (GCMs) tend to produce SSW maxima later in winter than observations, which has been considered as a model deficiency. Yet, the observed record is short, calling into question the representativeness of the observational record. To study the seasonality of SSWs and the factors behind it, the authors use observations, a long control simulation with a stratosphere resolving GCM, and also a simple statistical model that is based on the climatological seasonal cycle of the polar vortex winds. From the combined analysis, the authors conclude that the late-winter SSW maximum seen in most climate models is realistic and that observations would also have a late-winter SSW maximum if more data were available. The authors identify the seasonally varying strengths of the polar vortex and stratospheric wave driving as the two main factors behind the seasonal SSW distribution. The statistical model also indicates that there exists a continuum of weak polar vortex states and that SSWs simply form the tail of normally distributed stratospheric winds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2019

Accurately estimating and minimizing costs for the cellulosic biomass supply chain with statistical process control and the Taguchi Loss Function

This research focuses on the statistical evaluation of the feedstock attributes of the biomass supply chain and the estimation of attribute costs as a function of the feedstock variability. Challenges of using cellulosic feedstocks include the variability of feedstock quality (e.g., ash content and moisture content), which impacts the final cost of the manufactured product. Statistical Process Control (SPC), Taguchi Loss Function, and components of variance techniques were illustrated for quantifying cumulative variance in the biomass supply chain. Costs in the presence of cumulative variance were estimated for switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and loblolly pine residues (Pinus taeda L.). Findings of the study indicated that additional costs from ash content variability in switchgrass increased the net cost by $\$19.15$ per dry tonne. Additional costs from densification due to particle size variation increased net cost by $\$11.59$ per dry tonne. Moisture content variation increased costs by $\$14.86$ per dry tonne. This would represent a 50 to 100% increase in costs due to variation based on a $\$60$ to $\$70$ per dry tonne manufactured product cost. This study illustrates that total costs may be considerably underestimated if the influence of variance for key factors in the supply chain and associated costs are not estimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Collaborative Research: Using Arm Observations & Advanced Statistical Techniques to Evaluate Cam3 Clouds for Development of Stochastic Cloud-Radiation

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Statistical Projections for Multi-resolution, Multi-dimensional Visual Data Exploration and Analysis

An ongoing challenge in visual exploration and analysis of large, multi-dimensional datasets is how to present useful, concise information to a user for some specific visualization tasks. Typical approaches to this problem have proposed either reduced-resolution versions of data, or projections of data, or both. These approaches still have some limitations such as consuming high computation or suffering from errors. In this work, we explore the use of a statistical metric as the basis for both projections and reduced-resolution versions of data, with a particular focus on preserving one key trait in data, namely variation. We use two different case studies to explore this idea, one that uses a synthetic dataset, and another that uses a large ensemble collection produced by an atmospheric modeling code to study long-term changes in global precipitation. The primary findings of our work are that in terms of preserving the variation signal inherent in data, that using a statistical measure more faithfully preserves this key characteristic across both multi-dimensional projections and multi-resolution representations than a methodology based upon averaging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) Program - Statistical Analysis of RDX Standard Data Sets

The Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) program is conducting a Proficiency Test for Small- Scale Safety and Thermal (SSST) testing of homemade explosives (HMEs). Described here are statistical analyses of the results for impact, friction, electrostatic discharge, and differential scanning calorimetry analysis of the RDX Type II Class 5 standard. The material was tested as a well-characterized standard several times during the proficiency study to assess differences among participants and the range of results that may arise for well-behaved explosive materials. The analyses show that there are detectable differences among the results from IDCA participants. While these differences are statistically significant, most of them can be disregarded for comparison purposes to assess potential variability when laboratories attempt to measure identical samples using methods assumed to be nominally the same. The results presented in this report include the average sensitivity results for the IDCA participants and the ranges of values obtained. The ranges represent variation about the mean values of the tests of between 26% and 42%. The magnitude of this variation is attributed to differences in operator, method, and environment as well as the use of different instruments that are also of varying age. The results appear to be a good representation of the broader safety testing community based on the range of methods, instruments, and environments included in the IDCA Proficiency Test.

round-robin test↗

DOE OSTI2013

Collaborative Research: Using ARM Observations to Evaluate GCM Cloud Statistics for Development of Stochastic Cloud-Radiation Parameterizations

The long-range goal of several past and current projects in our DOE-supported research has been the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global models. The main objective of the present project being reported on here has been to develop and apply advanced statistical techniques, including Bayesian posterior estimates, to diagnose and evaluate features of both observed and simulated clouds. The research carried out under this project has been novel in two important ways. The first is that it is a key step in the development of practical stochastic cloud-radiation parameterizations, a new category of parameterizations that offers great promise for overcoming many shortcomings of conventional schemes. The second is that this work has brought powerful new tools to bear on the problem, because it has been an interdisciplinary collaboration between a meteorologist with long experience in ARM research (Somerville) and a mathematician who is an expert on a class of advanced statistical techniques that are well-suited for diagnosing model cloud simulations using ARM observations (Shen). The motivation and long-term goal underlying this work is the utilization of stochastic radiative transfer theory (Lane-Veron and Somerville, 2004; Lane et al., 2002) to develop a new class of parametric representations of cloud-radiation interactions and closely related processes for atmospheric models. The theoretical advantage of the stochastic approach is that it can accurately calculate the radiative heating rates through a broken cloud layer without requiring an exact description of the cloud geometry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Statistical Testing Approach for Quantifying Software Reliability; Application to an Example System

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRAs of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. This paper describes a statistical software testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applies it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

MIDAS: Modeling Individual Differences using Advanced Statistics

This research explores novel methods for extracting relevant information from EEG data to characterize individual differences in cognitive processing. Our approach combines expertise in machine learning, statistics, and cognitive science, advancing the state-of-the art in all three domains. Specifically, by using cognitive science expertise to interpret results and inform algorithm development, we have developed a generalizable and interpretable machine learning method that can accurately predict individual differences in cognition. The output of the machine learning method revealed surprising features of the EEG data that, when interpreted by the cognitive science experts, provided novel insights to the underlying cognitive task. Additionally, the outputs of the statistical methods show promise as a principled approach to quickly find regions within the EEG data where individual differences lie, thereby supporting cognitive science analysis and informing machine learning models. This work lays methodological ground work for applying the large body of cognitive science literature on individual differences to high consequence mission applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF 50 YEARS OF DAILY SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DATA

Daily mean value of solar wind velocity measured by various spacecraft near the Earth’s orbit from 1963 November 27 to 2013 December 31 given by OMNIWeb is utilized to investigate its characteristics through statistical analyses. The percent probability distribution of solar wind velocity can be described well by the Γ distribution function with the most probable velocity to be 373 km s{sup -1}. It is found that solar wind could be statistically classified into three groups: (1) the low-velocity wind, v<450 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in the cycle phase lags, the solar activity cycle; (2) the high-velocity wind, 450≤v<725 km s{sup -1}, which negatively responds to, and in the cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle, but in a short timescale (one-rotation-period) lags the solar activity cycle; and (3) the extreme-high-velocity wind, v≥725 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle. A period of about 27 days is determined for solar wind in the first two groups, so that solar wind in the groups is modulated by the solar rotation and related with solar long-life magnetic structures. Solar wind of extreme high velocity appears mainly at the descending phases of the solar cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

EVOLUTION OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINE DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT AND NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS

The magnetic field line random walk (FLRW) plays an important role in the transport of energy and particles in turbulent plasmas. For magnetic fluctuations that are transverse or almost transverse to a large-scale mean magnetic field, theories describing the FLRW usually predict asymptotic diffusion of magnetic field lines perpendicular to the mean field. Such theories often depend on the assumption that one can relate the Lagrangian and Eulerian statistics of the magnetic field via Corrsin’s hypothesis, and additionally take the distribution of magnetic field line displacements to be Gaussian. Here we take an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model with these underlying assumptions and test how well it describes the evolution of the magnetic field line diffusion coefficient in 2D+slab magnetic turbulence, by comparisons to computer simulations that do not involve such assumptions. In addition, we directly test the accuracy of the Corrsin approximation to the Lagrangian correlation. Over much of the studied parameter space we find that the ODE model is in fairly good agreement with computer simulations, in terms of both the evolution and asymptotic values of the diffusion coefficient. When there is poor agreement, we show that this can be largely attributed to the failure of Corrsin’s hypothesis rather than the assumption of Gaussian statistics of field line displacements. The degree of non-Gaussianity, which we measure in terms of the kurtosis, appears to be an indicator of how well Corrsin’s approximation works.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Statistics of Radio Astronomical Polarimetry: Disjoint, Superposed, and Composite Samples

A statistical framework is presented for the study of the orthogonally polarized modes of radio pulsar emission via the covariances between the Stokes parameters. To accommodate the typically heavy-tailed distributions of single-pulse radio flux density, the fourth-order joint cumulants of the electric field are used to describe the superposition of modes with arbitrary probability distributions. The framework is used to consider the distinction between superposed and disjoint modes, with particular attention to the effects of integration over finite samples. If the interval over which the polarization state is estimated is longer than the timescale for switching between two or more disjoint modes of emission, then the modes are unresolved by the instrument. The resulting composite sample mean exhibits properties that have been attributed to mode superposition, such as depolarization. Because the distinction between disjoint modes and a composite sample of unresolved disjoint modes depends on the temporal resolution of the observing instrumentation, the arguments in favor of superposed modes of pulsar emission are revisited, and observational evidence for disjoint modes is described. In principle, the four-dimensional covariance matrix that describes the distribution of sample mean Stokes parameters can be used to distinguish between disjoint modes, superposed modes, and a composite sample of unresolved disjoint modes. More comprehensive and conclusive interpretation of the covariance matrix requires more detailed consideration of various relevant phenomena, including temporally correlated subpulse modulation (e.g., jitter), statistical dependence between modes (e.g., covariant intensities and partial coherence), and multipath propagation effects (e.g., scintillation and scattering).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Statistics of Reconnection-driven Turbulence

Magnetic reconnection is a process that changes magnetic field topology in highly conducting fluids. Within the standard Sweet–Parker model, this process would be too slow to explain observations (e.g., solar flares). In reality, the process must be ubiquitous as astrophysical fluids are magnetized and motions of fluid elements necessarily entail crossing of magnetic frozen-in field lines and magnetic reconnection. In the presence of turbulence, the reconnection is independent of microscopic plasma properties and may be much faster than previously thought, as proposed in Lazarian and Vishniac and tested in Kowal et al. However, the considered turbulence in the Lazarian–Vishniac model was imposed externally. In this work, we consider reconnection-driven magnetized turbulence in realistic three-dimensional geometry initiated by stochastic noise. We demonstrate through numerical simulations that the stochastic reconnection is able to self-generate turbulence through interactions between the reconnection outflows. We analyze the statistical properties of velocity fluctuations using power spectra and anisotropy scaling in the local reference frame, which demonstrates that the reconnection produces Kolmogorov-like turbulence, compatible with the Goldreich and Sridhar model. Anisotropy statistics are, however, strongly affected by the dynamics of flows generated by the reconnection process. Once the broad turbulent region is formed, the typical anisotropy scaling l{sub ∥}∝l{sub ⊥}{sup 2/3} is formed, especially for high resolution models, where the broader range of scales is available. The decay of reconnection outflows to turbulent-like fluctuations, characterized by different anisotropy scalings, strongly depends on the β plasma parameter. Moreover, the estimated reconnection rates are weakly dependent on the model resolution, suggesting that no external processes are required to make reconnection fast.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Distributions of Optical Flares from Gamma-Ray Bursts

We statistically study gamma-ray burst (GRB) optical flares from the Swift /UVOT catalog. We compile 119 optical flares, including 77 flares with redshift measurements. Some tight correlations among the timescales of optical flares are found. For example, the rise time is correlated with the decay time, and the duration time is correlated with the peak time of optical flares. These two tight correlations indicate that longer rise times are associated with longer decay times of optical flares and also suggest that broader optical flares peak at later times, which are consistent with the corresponding correlations of X-ray flares. We also study the frequency distributions of optical flare parameters, including the duration time, rise time, decay time, peak time, and waiting time. Similar power-law distributions for optical and X-ray flares are found. Our statistic results imply that GRB optical flares and X-ray flares may share the similar physical origin, and both of them are possibly related to central engine activities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Three Statistically Validated K2 Transiting Warm Jupiter Exoplanets Confirmed as Low-mass Stars

We have identified three K2 transiting star–planet systems, K2-51 (EPIC 202900527), K2-67 (EPIC 206155547), and K2-76 (EPIC 206432863), as stellar binaries with low-mass stellar secondaries. The three systems were statistically validated as transiting planets, and through measuring their orbits by radial velocity (RV) monitoring we have derived the companion masses to be 0.1459{sub −0.0032}{sup +0.0029} M{sub ⊙} (EPIC 202900527 B), 0.1612{sub −0.0067}{sup +0.0072} M{sub ⊙} (EPIC 206155547 B), and 0.0942 ± 0.0019 M{sub ⊙} (EPIC 206432863 B). Therefore, they are not planets but small stars, part of the small sample of low-mass stars with measured radius and mass. The three systems are at an orbital period range of 12–24 days, and the secondaries have a radius within 0.9–1.9 R{sub J}, not inconsistent with the properties of warm Jupiter planets. These systems illustrate some of the existing challenges in the statistical validation approach. We point out a few possible origins for the initial misclassification of these objects, including poor characterization of the host star, the difficulty in detecting a secondary eclipse in systems on an eccentric orbit, and the difficulty in distinguishing between the smallest stars and gas giant planets as the two populations have indistinguishable radius distributions. Our work emphasizes the need for obtaining medium-precision RV measurements to distinguish between companions that are small stars, brown dwarfs, and gas giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗