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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating Stranded Asset Risks to Utility Customers: an Exploration of Securitization and Retiring Coal Generation

Coal generation currently accounts for approximately 19.5 percent of electricity generated in the United States, down from 51.7 percent of the generation mix in 2000. In 2023, the EIA expects 8.9 gigawatts (GW) of planned retirements of coal-fired capacity. Many of the coal-fired power plant retirements that have already occurred or are planned for the next decade will be plants that have not yet reached the end of their useful life, and are therefore not fully depreciated. Ensuring that utility customers do not face an undue burden in paying for these stranded assets will become an increasingly important issue over the next few years for PUCs overseeing the safety, reliability, and affordability of investor-owned utility service. This report reviews the role that securitization can play in reducing the costs associated with stranded assets due to early coal plant retirements.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation Of Risk And Possible Mitigation Schemes For Previously Unidentified Hazards

This report presents the results of arc track testing conducted to determine if such a transfer of power to un-energized wires is possible and/or likely during an arcing event, and to evaluate an array of protection schemes that may significantly reduce the possibility of such a transfer. The results of these experiments may be useful for determining the level of protection necessary to guard against spurious voltage and current being applied to safety critical circuits. It was not the purpose of these experiments to determine the probability of the initiation of an arc track event only if an initiation did occur could it cause the undesired event: an inadvertent thruster firing. The primary wire insulation used in the Orbiter is aromatic polyimide, or Kapton , a construction known to arc track under certain conditions [3]. Previous Boeing testing has shown that arc tracks can initiate in aromatic polyimide insulated 28 volts direct current (VDC) power circuits using more realistic techniques such as chafing with an aluminum blade (simulating the corner of an avionics box or lip of a wire tray), or vibration of an aluminum plate against a wire bundle [4]. Therefore, an arc initiation technique was chosen that provided a reliable and consistent technique of starting the arc and not a realistic simulation of a scenario on the vehicle. Once an arc is initiated, the current, power and propagation characteristics of the arc depend on the power source, wire gauge and insulation type, circuit protection and series resistance rather than type of initiation. The initiation method employed for these tests was applying an oil and graphite mixture to the ends of a powered twisted pair wire. The flight configuration of the heater circuits, the fuel/oxider (or ox) wire, and the RCS jet solenoid were modeled in the test configuration so that the behavior of these components during an arcing event could be studied. To determine if coil activation would occur with various protection wire schemes, 145 tests were conducted using various fuel/ox wire alternatives (shielded and unshielded) and/or different combinations of polytetrafuloroethylene (PTFE), Mystik tape and convoluted wraps to prevent unwanted coil activation. Test results were evaluated along with other pertinent data and information to develop a mitigation strategy for an inadvertent RCS firing. The SSP evaluated civilian aircraft wiring failures to search for aging trends in assessing the wire-short hazard. Appendix 2 applies Weibull statistical methods to the same data with a similar purpose.

Linzey, William↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Risk and Possible Mitigation Schemes for Previously Unidentified Hazards

In April 2004, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was commissioned by NASA's Chief Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Officer to review and render a technical opinion on the probability of a catastrophic failure related to this scenario: The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) recognized a zero-fault-tolerant design related to an inadvertent firing of the primary reaction control system (RCS) jets on the Orbiter during mated operations with the International Space Station (ISS). It was determined that an un-commanded firing of an RCS jet could cause serious damage or loss of both the SSP Orbiter and the ISS. Several scenarios were suggested in which an un-commanded firing of the RCS jet is possible. These scenarios include an arc track event in the 28-volt heater circuits that could result in a wire-to-wire short to the adjacent reaction control jet wire. In this worst-case scenario, enough current and power could be applied to activate the reaction control jet valves and fire a thruster. The following report summarizes the work that was sponsored by the NESC as part of their assessment of the Orbiter inadvertent firing of a RCS thruster while attached to the ISS.

Linzey, William↗
NASA NTRS2015

Hyperbolic Rendezvous at Mars: Risk Assessments and Mitigation Strategies

Given the current interest in the use of flyby trajectories for human Mars exploration, a key requirement is the capability to execute hyperbolic rendezvous. Hyperbolic rendezvous is used to transport crew from a Mars centered orbit, to a transiting Earth bound habitat that does a flyby. Representative cases are taken from future potential missions of this type, and a thorough sensitivity analysis of the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is performed. This includes early engine cutoff, missed burn times, and burn misalignment. A finite burn engine model is applied that assumes the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is done with at least two burns.

Jedrey, Ricky↗
NASA NTRS2020

Circulating Mirna Spaceflight Signature Reveals Targets to Mitigate Associated Health Risks

We have identified and validated a spaceflight-associated microRNA (miRNA) signature that is shared by rodents and humans in response to simulated, short-duration, and long-duration spaceflight and regulates vascular damage caused by simulated deep space radiation. In previous studies, we had identified miRNAs that are predicted to regulate rodent responses to spaceflight in low-Earth orbit. Here we have confirmed the expression of these proposed spaceflight associated miRNAs in rodents reacting to simulated spaceflight conditions (exposure to ionizing radiation combined with simulated microgravity) and in astronaut samples from the NASA Twins Study via direct quantification of miRNAs, miRNA sequencing, and inferring miRNA target levels based on single-cell RNA (scRNA-seq) and single-cell chromatin (scATAC-seq) sequencing data. To demonstrate the physiological relevance of key spaceflight associated miRNAs, we utilized antagomirs to inhibit their expression and successfully rescue simulated deep space radiation-mediated damage in human 3D vascular constructs.

Sherina Malkani↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating Microbial Contamination Risks in CO 2 Removal Systems for Long-Duration Space Missions

Crewed missions to Mars and beyond pose new challenges for the crew and the technological solutions they depend upon. Crucial considerations in designing the next generation of Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) include enhanced reliability and autonomy, given the challenges of resupply and resource recovery in remote missions. One significant challenge faced in various sectors of the International Space Station and ECLSS is the phenomena of microbial growth, particularly biofilm formation. As such, microbial growth is a critical consideration in the design phase of new ECLSS systems. Two novel CO2 removal systems—Liquid-Amines CO2 Removal (LACR) and Cold-Surface CO2 Deposition (CDep)—are currently under development at the NASA Ames Research Center to meet the needs of extended space travel. In this presentation, the authors aim to make a risk assessment of microbial growth in LACR and CDep through: 1) a comprehensive literature review to identify LACR and CDep components most vulnerable to microbial contamination and 2) wet lab testing commencing with a subscale test of the most susceptible component of CDep. The literature review revealed that the hollow-fiber Liqui-Cel membrane employed in CDep exhibits the highest susceptibility to microbial growth. Our wet lab tests corroborated these findings, as airborne microbes introduced into the membrane led to considerable biomass accumulation. These results indicate a significant risk of microbial invasion into the membranes. To prevent microbial growth in CDep or other CO2 removal systems, proper ECLSS arrangement is essential—a CO2 removal system should remain behind the charcoal-HEPA filters, condensing heat exchanger, and Trace Contaminant Control System. In summary, anticipating potential microbial interactions within ECLSS for remote crewed missions is vital to mission success. It should, therefore, be included as one of the many factors when designing future ECLSS systems to perform reliably and consistently to support astronaut life.

A. Nicolas Whitlock↗
NASA NTRS2013

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2023

Climate and Human Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Flood Risk in Southern Louisiana

Satellite observations of coastal Louisiana indicate an overall land loss over recent decades, which could be attributed to climate and human-induced factors, including sea level rise (SLR). Climate induced hydrological change (CHC) has impacted the way flood control structures are used, altering the spatiotemporal water distribution. Based on “what-if” scenarios, we determine relative impacts of SLR and CHC on increased flood risk over southern Louisiana and examine the role of water management, via flood control structures, in mitigating flood risk over the region. Our findings show that CHC has increased flood risk over the past 28 years. The number of affected people increases as extreme hydrological events become more exceptional. Water management reduces flood risk to urban areas and croplands, especially during exceptional hydrological events. For example, currently (i.e., 2016-2020 period), CHC-induced flooding puts an additional 73km2 of cropland under flood risk at least half of the time (median flood event) and 65km2 once a year (annual flood event), when compared to a past period (1993-1997). A ten- to twenty-fold increase relative to SLR-induced flooding. CHC also increases population vulnerability in southern Louisiana to flooding; additional 9900 residents currently live under flood risk at least half of the time, and that number increases to 27,400 for annual flood events. Residents vulnerable to SLR induced flooding is lower (6000 and 3300 residents, respectively). Conclusions are that CHC is a major factor that should be accounted for flood resilience and that water management interventions can mitigate risks to human life and activities.

Augusto Getirana↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Earthling to an Astronaut: Medical Challenges

Humans can travel safely into space in low Earth orbit (LEO) or to near-Earth objects if several medical, physiological, environmental, and human factors issues risks are mitigated. Research must be performed in order to set standards in these four areas, and current NASA standards are contained in the Space Flight Human System Standards volumes 1 and 2, and crew medical certification standards. These three sets of standards drive all of the clinical, biomedical research and environmental technology development for the NASA human space flight program. These standards also drive the identification of specific risks to crew health and safety, and we currently manage 65 human system risks within the human space flight program. Each risk has a specific program of research, technology development, and development of operational procedures to mitigate the risks. Some of the more important risks tat will be discussed in this talk include exposure to radiation, behavioral health due to confinement in a closed cabin, physiological changes such as loss of bone, muscle and exercise capability, reduction in immune system capability, environmental threats of maintaining an adequate atmosphere and water for drinking, avoidance of toxic or infectious material, protection of hearing, and human factors issues of equipment and task design. A nutritious and varied food supply must also be provided. All of these risks will be discussed and current strategies for mitigating these risks for long-duration human space flight. In mitigating these 65 human system risks, novel approaches to problem solving must be employed to find the most appropriate research and technology based applications. Some risk mitigations are developed internally to NASA while others are found through research grants, technology procurements, and more recently open innovation techniques to seek solutions from the global technical community. Examples and results will be presented from all of these approaches including the more recent use of prizes to stimulate innovation.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Improving Our Odds: Success through Continuous Risk Management

Launching a rocket, running a business, driving to work and even day-to-day living all involve some degree of risk. Risk is ever present yet not always recognized, adequately assessed and appropriately mitigated. Identification, assessment and mitigation of risk are elements of the risk management component of the "continuous improvement" way of life that has become a hallmark of successful and progressive enterprises. While the application of risk management techniques to provide continuous improvement may be detailed and extensive, the philosophy, ideals and tools can be beneficially applied to all situations. Experiences with the use of risk identification, assessment and mitigation techniques for complex systems and processes are described. System safety efforts and tools used to examine potential risks of the Ares I First Stage of NASA s new Constellation Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) presently being designed are noted as examples. Recommendations from lessons learned are provided for the application of risk management during the development of new systems as well as for the improvement of existing systems. Lessons learned and suggestions given are also examined for applicability to simple systems, uncomplicated processes and routine personal daily tasks. This paper informs the reader of varied uses of risk management efforts and techniques to identify, assess and mitigate risk for improvement of products, success of business, protection of people and enhancement of personal life.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evidence Report: Risk of Inadequate Human-Computer Interaction

Human-computer interaction (HCI) encompasses all the methods by which humans and computer-based systems communicate, share information, and accomplish tasks. When HCI is poorly designed, crews have difficulty entering, navigating, accessing, and understanding information. HCI has rarely been studied in an operational spaceflight context, and detailed performance data that would support evaluation of HCI have not been collected; thus, we draw much of our evidence from post-spaceflight crew comments, and from other safety-critical domains like ground-based power plants, and aviation. Additionally, there is a concern that any potential or real issues to date may have been masked by the fact that crews have near constant access to ground controllers, who monitor for errors, correct mistakes, and provide additional information needed to complete tasks. We do not know what types of HCI issues might arise without this "safety net". Exploration missions will test this concern, as crews may be operating autonomously due to communication delays and blackouts. Crew survival will be heavily dependent on available electronic information for just-in-time training, procedure execution, and vehicle or system maintenance; hence, the criticality of the Risk of Inadequate HCI. Future work must focus on identifying the most important contributing risk factors, evaluating their contribution to the overall risk, and developing appropriate mitigations. The Risk of Inadequate HCI includes eight core contributing factors based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS): (1) Requirements, policies, and design processes, (2) Information resources and support, (3) Allocation of attention, (4) Cognitive overload, (5) Environmentally induced perceptual changes, (6) Misperception and misinterpretation of displayed information, (7) Spatial disorientation, and (8) Displays and controls.

Kritina Holden↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications and Performance of a Lightning Risk Assessment using Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Data

Lightning is a hazard globally, particularly in lesser-developed countries. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are a threat to human safety, motivating a desire to monitor location-based lightning risk to mitigate harm. A lightning risk assessment for human safety was created that uses a combination of probabilistic risk calculation and spatial lightning mapping data to produce a risk magnitude. This risk magnitude evolves with time and changing conditions and is compared to tolerability thresholds in order to evaluate safety. The risk assessment using lightning mapping array (LMA) flash extent density (FED) data was found to perform comparatively (with respect to issuing lightning warnings) to a more standard method of monitoring lightning safety where National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) flashes were monitored within a 5 nautical mile radius of a location of interest. This research investigates the replacement of LMA FED with FED from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) within the risk assessment framework. Using GLM FED would allow for risk to be calculated outside of LMA domains and anywhere within the GLM field of view, including areas outside of the United States (US). A few applications of the risk method with GLM FED are shown and discussed for locations both in and outside of the US. Additionally, the performance of the risk method is compared based on the type of lightning input source (LMA vs GLM). The end goal of this work is to provide forecasters and end users with a tool to help monitor lightning risk in decision support scenarios.

Kelley Murphy↗