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At least 793 records · Page 44

Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks

Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr -1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m -2 , 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m -2 ) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ~2.30 kg C m –2 ) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m 2 ha -1 ) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Observations of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry: Deployment, Signal Characteristics, and Wavefield Phenomenology

Controlled spacecraft reentries from interplanetary trajectories provide rare, well-characterized hypersonic sources for advancing seismoacoustic observation techniques. Here we present seismic observations of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule (SRC) reentry on 24 September 2023, recorded by 16 three-component nodal seismometers deployed near Eureka, Nevada, at ground distances of 7–20 km from the capsule trajectory. Air-to-ground coupled signals are detected at all stations, exhibiting impulsive onsets consistent with ballistic shock arrivals from the descending Mach cone. We characterize the seismic wavefield through signal amplitude, period, waveform cross-correlation, and array processing. Signal periods decrease systematically with increasing distance from the trajectory within the airport array, indicating that higher-frequency content becomes more prominent at greater offsets, opposite to expectations from geometric spreading and atmospheric absorption. Seismic array processing identifies frequency-dependent back-azimuth variations whose origin remains unresolved; possible contributing factors include source geometry, scattering by fine-scale layered structure in the stratosphere, and near-surface effects. These observations document a spatially complex seismic wavefield from a well-characterized hypersonic line source and provide constraints for future modeling of atmospheric propagation and air-to-ground coupling.

OSIRIS-REx↗

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Estimating Return on Investment for Energy Technical Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of State and Community Energy Programs engaged the National Laboratory of the Rockies to assess the return on investment (ROI) of technical assistance (TA) programs that support state, local, and Tribal energy planning. Although TA delivers value through capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge transfer, these benefits are often intangible and challenging to monetize. This study reviews existing ROI frameworks and synthesizes the most relevant elements into a hybrid approach tailored to energy TA programs. The proposed framework integrates monetary and non-monetary outcomes through early logic model development, baseline data collection, and the use of proxies for intangible benefits. As a case study, this paper applies this approach to the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP), demonstrating how ROI can inform program design, data strategy, and performance assessment. Findings underscore that ROI should be applied selectively and planned from the outset to ensure data alignment and attribution accuracy. The framework offers TA practitioners a structured approach that can be leveraged for future programs to evaluate and communicate the multifaceted value of TA investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Design comparison of lunar return configurations

Parabolic manned re-entry design comparisons are made between two classes of slender and blunt configurations capable of conventional horizontal and vertical earth landings. Aerodynamic modulation using flaps and control augmentation requirements are discussed in terms of their effect upon re-entry trajectories and landing footprints. Within the environment defined by the re-entry trajectories, the convective and radiative modes of heat transfer are compared, their differences discussed, and the problems associated with the configurations for planetary return missions indicated. Thermal protection systems are discussed and the factors influencing the selection of a given system for the re-entry environment are indicated. Comparison between reflective and absorptive systems are made and the merits of each for a given flight time indicated. A thermo-structural analysis is presented which shows the trade-oft between structural operating temperature and heat protection system thickness requirements. Total heat shield and structural weights are compared for the landing footprints presented and their variation with range shown. Finally, the areas of uncertainty in the aero-thermo structural design analysis are indicated for each class of configuration studied, and the weight differences between conventional horizontal landing and vertical descent configurations are given.

Parabolic flight↗