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At least 793 records · Page 44

Energy Paths for the Yurok People

This Yurok Tribe energy strategic planning study examined electricity usage, costs and infrastructure, as well as electricity needs on the Reservation. It also assessed the Tribe’s energy resources. Equipped with this information, the project team conducted an energy options analysis that examined different project opportunities and identified key projects that are both feasible to implement and will help the Tribe reach its stated Energy Vision. A key finding of the energy needs assessment is that there are still numerous households that are without grid electric power, and it is likely that most of them will remain disconnected from the grid because of their remoteness. To provide these community members with reliable, affordable, modern energy services their homes will need to be electrified via a robust off-grid energy services program that installs and maintains off-grid energy systems. This is the key need that is explored and addressed in this plan. The approach taken is to establish a new business entity, a Tribal Energy Authority or Utility, that will operate a Tribal Energy Program. The Energy Strategic Plan identifies a number of potential funding sources that could be used to support both the On-grid and Off-grid Energy Programs. This plan also promotes continued efforts to reduce electricity consumption through the implementation of energy efficiency measures in existing facilities and the enforcement of a strong energy-efficient building code for all new construction on the Reservation. Finally, the plan promotes added resilience at critical Tribal facilities on the Reservation by recommending that battery energy storage systems and microgrid controls be coupled with rooftop solar PV systems to create cutting edge microgrid facilities that can provide critical power services to Tribal facilities when the main electric grid is shutdown.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Risk-based System Upgrade Planning for AOT-IC Presentation [Slides]

The number of deployed systems and different HW/SW form factors makes it difficult to maintain a complete understanding of their health which leads to a reduced level of certainty when assessing risk and trying to prioritize system upgrade efforts. AOT-IC must constantly plan and execute system upgrade and replacement projects to ensure the longevity of the control system. There are many more projects needed than the group can realistically accomplish given schedule and resource constraints. The group must prioritize their upgrade projects to choose only the highest priority projects to execute each year. Currently plans upgrade and replacement projects based on alignment with mission needs, group vision, resource availability, and qualitative risk assessments based on SME estimates. The group maintains a risk register. This is useful as a tool for shaping strategic planning but currently lacks the quantitative data and process needed to generate accurate risk assessments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Remote sensing in Michigan for land resource management

During the period from June 1972 to June 1973, remote sensing techniques were applied to the following tasks: (1) mapping Michigan's land resources, (2) waterfowl habitat management at Point Mouillee, (3) mapping of Lake Erie shoreline flooding, (4) highway impact assessment, (5) applications of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite, ERTS-1, (6) investigation of natural gas eruptions near Williamsburg, and (7) commercial site selection. The goal of the program was the large scale adaption, by both public agencies and private interests in Michigan, of earth-resource survey technology as an important aid in the solution of current problems in resources management and environmental protection.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability over America using the NSRDB version 3 (1998–2017)

The study assesses the long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability in America using the 20-year National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Specifically, the coefficient of variation (COV) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal (interannual and seasonal) variability. Further, both spatial and temporal long-term variability are analyzed using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The temporal variability is found that, on average, the continental United States (CONUS) COV reaches up to 5% for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 10% for direct normal irradiance (DNI), and that the NSRDB domain's COV is roughly twice that of CONUS. For the seasonal variability analysis, the winter months are found to exhibit higher COV than the other seasons. In particular, December exhibits the highest variability, reaching on average 30% for DNI and 20% for GHI over various areas. On the other hand, the summer months demonstrate significantly lower variability, reaching only less than 20% for DNI and 10% for GHI, on average. Similarly, the spatial variability is analyzed by comparing each pixel to its neighbors. The long-term spatial variability is found to increase with the number of neighboring pixels being considered, which is equivalent to an increase in distance (within a 100-km x 100-km square grid). As expected, the DNI spatial variability is higher than that of GHI. Moreover, the annual solar irradiance anomalies are found to reach ±25% for both GHI and DNI (and even exceed those value in some instances) during each year of the 20-year period.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identifying University Chemicals That Pose Security Risks: A Simple Qualitative Approach

Various laboratory-focused tools and methodologies for completing a safety risk assessment have been published, yet few similar resources to address chemical security exist. Herein, we describe a chemical security risk assessment case study at a university in a developing country. In this case study, we demonstrate a chemical security risk assessment for a university chemistry department, using an original inventory of 645 entries which was condensed to 295 chemicals after removing duplicates and erroneous entries. We then prioritized to highlight 83 chemicals of interest based on hazardous or dual-use properties that could lead to unacceptable consequences. We further refined to a list of 34 high-risk chemicals that required action, 48 chemicals that may need further justification and consideration for additional protection, and 1 chemical that did not need further consideration for additional protection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Results of an irrigated lands assessment for water management in California

Periodic assessment of existing and future demands for water within California is one responsibility of the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). The California Irrigated Lands Assessment for Water Management Project represented a 5-year joint research effort between the NASA and the CDWR with technical support from the University of California (UC) at Berkeley and at Santa Barbara. The objectives were: (1) to develop and demonstrate procedures for providing highly precise, timely, estimates of irrigated area on a statewide basis using Landsat sensor data, and (2) to develop, through research with small demonstration sites, a procedure for the inventory and mapping of crop groups on a regional basis. Both manual and computer-assisted analyses were investigated. This paper highlights the statewide irrigated lands inventory where a procedure for statewide estimation of irrigated land using full frame Landsat MSS imagery and sampled ground data was successfully demonstrated. The statewide estimate of 3 990 112 hectares was within + or - 1.32 percent relative standard error at the 95-percent Confidence Interval, well within the design goal. This procedure represents a new capability for obtaining near-real time data on changes in agricultural water use throughout the state.

Bauer, E. H.↗

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Field Evaluation of the Caney Shale as an Emerging Unconventional Play, Southern Oklahoma

The Mississippian-age Caney Shale is an emerging unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resource play in the southern Midcontinent and is prospective in the Anadarko, Ardmore, Marietta and western Arkoma basins. This play is enigmatic in that time equivalent Fayetteville Shale in the eastern Arkoma basin and Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth Basin are major unconventional plays, whereas Caney Shale production is sparse and unpredictable (Cardott, 2017). In the Anadarko, Ardmore and Marietta basins, the Caney Shale is in the oil window, but its resource potential has not been adequately assessed. The Caney reservoir is about 60-300 m thick, is rich in total organic carbon, contains a large oil resource base, and has a strong natural gas drive; however, development has been hampered by high clay content and reactivity of the formation with water. The main objective of this initial four-year research project was to address these issues by establishing a Caney Shale Field Laboratory in the Ardmore Basin of southern Oklahoma to (a) conduct a comprehensive field characterization (b) perform field experiments, and (c) validate cost-effective technologies that will lead to a comprehensive and efficient development strategy plan for Caney Shale.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

Tong, Michael T.↗

Creating Methane from Plastics: Recycling at a Lunar Outpost

The high cost of re-supply from Earth demands resources to be utilized to the fullest extent for exploration missions. Recycling is a key technology that maximizes the available resources by converting waste products into useful commodities. One example of this is to convert crew member waste such as plastic packaging, food scraps, and human waste, into fuel. The ability to refuel on the lunar surface would reduce the vehicle mass during launch and provide excess payload capability. The goal of this project is to determine the feasibility of recycling waste into methane on the lunar outpost by performing engineering assessments and lab demonstrations of the technology. The first goal of the project was to determine how recycling could influence lunar exploration. Table I shows an estimation of the typical dried waste stream generated each day for a crew of four. Packaging waste accounts for nearly 86% of the dry waste stream and is a significant source of carbon on the lunar surface. This is important because methane (CH4) can be used as fuel and no other source of carbon is available on the lunar surface. With the initial assessment indicating there is sufficient resources in the waste stream to provide refueling capabilities, the project was designed to examine the conversion of plastics into methane.

Captain, Janine↗

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Infrastructure Security Division (ISD) Assessment Prioritization Project

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Infrastructure Security Division (CISA ISD) manages a diverse portfolio of assessments across the nation’s critical infrastructure sectors. These assessments—ranging in type, scope, and complexity—are essential for identifying vulnerabilities and strengthening national security. However, the wide variation in assessment offerings and the increasing demand for limited resources have highlighted the need for a transparent, structured approach to prioritizing assessment activities. To address this challenge, CISA ISD partnered with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to review current assessment methodologies, analyze existing prioritization practices, and develop a comprehensive, national-security-focused prioritization framework. This report summarizes the project’s approach, key findings, and actionable recommendations for enhancing ISD’s assessment program.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Assessing the Health and Performance Risks of Reduced Carbon Dioxide Exposures and Resource Utilization

There have been a cluster of anecdotal reports that ISS crews are experiencing adverse health effects from on orbit exposure to CO2 levels well below the current Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentration (SMAC), which is 5.3 mmHg for 180 days of exposure. Developing evidence that this standard should be reduced to protect crew health is not a simple process. Dr. John James' team looked at the reports of headaches by the crew during private medical conferences and matched these with CO2 levels around the time of these reports. They then compared these to CO2 levels when there were no reports of headache. Using benchmark dose modeling, they found that the risk of headache could be predicted in concentration ranges from 2 to 5 mmHg. However, the data are incomplete because there were insufficient data when crews were exposed to concentrations below 2 mmHg. James' team also asked whether neuro-cognitive effects could be identified with CO2 exposure levels and found that these could not be associated with CO2 levels. Finally, they addressed the question of resource use to meet various levels of CO2 control if the SMACs were lowered. They estimated that CO2 restrictions approaching 2 mmHg would require substantial increases in power use and up-mass resources. They are refining their data on CO2 and headaches, and are looking at potential interactions of intracranial pressure and CO2 levels in eliciting ocular effects.

James, John T.↗

Patch selection by bumble bees navigating discontinuous landscapes

Pollen and nectar resources are unevenly distributed over space and bees must make routing decisions when navigating patchy resources. Determining the patch selection process used by bees is crucial to understanding bee foraging over discontinuous landscapes. To elucidate this process, we developed four distinct probability models of bee movement where the size and the distance to the patch determined the attractiveness of a patch. A field experiment with a center patch and four peripheral patches of two distinct sizes and distances from the center was set up in two configurations. Empirical transition probabilities from the center to each peripheral patch were obtained at two sites and two years. The best model was identified by comparing observed and predicted transition probabilities, where predicted values were obtained by incorporating the spatial dimensions of the field experiment into each model’s mathematical expression. Bumble bees used both patch size and isolation distance when selecting a patch and could assess the total amount of resources available in a patch. Bumble bees prefer large, nearby patches. This information will facilitate the development of a predictive framework to the study of bee movement and of models that predict the movement of genetically engineered pollen in bee-pollinated crops.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗