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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interconnect: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-13-00507 (Project 4)

This CRADA modification involves analyses on a variety of CdTe-PV related materials, test structures, solar cells, and modules produced at FSLR and/or NLR and adds analysis related to module degradation and reliability. Materials will be provided by FSLR, NLR, and/or by interleaving FSLR and NLR layers and processes. Module reliability activities will include technical risk assessment, materials characterization, module and test structure characterization, modeling, accelerated test development, and outdoor testing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Regional Coordination on Transmission Needs for Power System Resource Adequacy [Slides]

Resource adequacy (RA) is an important component of bulk power system reliability that addresses whether there are sufficient resources available to meet electricity demand at all times. RA analysis is used to assess whether the planned power system will provide reliable electricity to consumers while accounting for equipment outages, weather variability, and load uncertainty. Coordination between regions can enable resource sharing to meet RA needs if sufficient transmission capacity exists. Transmission's role in RA coordination can be particularly pronounced for large power systems like the U.S. electricity grid which contains geographically diverse demand and weather-dependent resources. Depending on the level of coordination desired, existing inter-regional transmission capacity may not be sufficient. This study is designed to assess optimal pathways for the development of inter-regional transmission in the U.S. under varying levels of RA coordination. Results can inform long-term grid infrastructure planning and provide insights into potential benefits of greater coordination for generation and transmission planning between regional U.S. power systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling FLEX Human Actions Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Most current efforts have modified and applied existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods to treat human actions related to beyond-design-basis external events in which diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) equipment would be deployed. However, many questions remain regarding the suitability of legacy HRA methods to address FLEX human actions, sparking the need for a new method of reasonably evaluating them. In this context, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) researched a relatively new approach to treating FLEX human actions via Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) software. EMRALD was developed to support the increasing need for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models that can respond to evolving plant conditions during simulations. A couple benefits were identified when analyzing FLEX human actions through this software. In general, it is especially useful for evaluating a strategy’s feasibility, including FLEX human actions that require a relatively long time to perform. In this paper, we suggest how FLEX human actions can be modeled using the EMRALD software. Two different HRA modeling approaches using EMRALD are introduced: (1) procedure-based modeling and (2) PRA/HRA-based modeling. The former approach was introduced in the authors’ previous paper, whereas this paper mainly discusses how the latter approach works for an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario with relevant procedures and PRA models. A hybrid method combining the two modeling approaches is introduced at the paper’s conclusion.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of a Shuttle Derived Vehicle (SDV) for Cargo Transportation

In this new era of space exploration, a host of launch vehicles are being examined for possible use in transporting cargo and crew to low Earth orbit and beyond. Launch vehicles derived from the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), known as Shuttle Derived Vehicles (SDVs), are prime candidates for heavy-lift duty because of their potential to minimize non-recurring costs and because the Shuttle can leverage off proven high-performance flight systems with established ground and flight support. To determine the merits of SDVs, a detailed evaluation was performed. This evaluation included a trade study and risk assessment of options based on performance, safety reliability, cost, operations, and evolution. The purpose of this paper is to explain the approach, processes, and tools used to evaluate launch vehicles for heavy lift cargo transportation. The process included defining the trade space, characterizing the concepts, analyzing the systems, and scoring the options. The process also included a review by subject experts from NASA and industry to compare past and recent study data and assess the risks. A set of technical performance measures (TPMs) was generated based on the study requirements and constraints. Tools such as INTROS and POST were used to calculate performance, FIRST was used for prediction of reliability, and other software packages, both commercial and NASA-owned, were applied to study the trade space. By following a clear process and using the right tools a thorough assessment was performed. An SDV can be classified as either a side-mount vehicle (SMV) or an in-line vehicle OLV). An SMV is a Space Shuttle where the Orbiter is replaced by a cargo carrier. An ILV is comprised of a modified Shuttle External Tank (ET) with engines mounted to the bottom and cargo mounted atop. For both families of vehicles, Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) are attached to the ET. The first derivate of Shuttle is defined as the vehicle with minimum changes necessary to transform the Space Shuttle into an SDV. Deltas from the first derivate were also formulated to study more SDV options. Examples of deltas include replacing the SRBs with larger and/or more SRBs, adding an upper stage, increasing the size of the ET, changing the engines, and modifying the elements. Challenges for SDV range from tailoring infrastructure to meeting the exploration schedule. Although SDV is based on the Space Shuttle, it still includes development risk for designing and building a Cargo Carrier. There are also performance challenges in that Shuttle is not optimized for cargo-only missions, but it is a robust system built on reusability. Balancing the strengths and weaknesses of the Shuttle to meet Lunar and Mars mission objectives provides the framework for an informative trade study. SDV was carefully analyzed and the results of the study provide invaluable data for use in the new exploration initiative.

Roman, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Facility Condition Assessments to Identify Actions Related to Infrastructure

To support cost effective, quality research it is essential that laboratory and testing facilities are maintained in a continuous and reliable state of availability at all times. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and its maintenance contractor, Jacobs Technology, Inc. Research Operations, Maintenance, and Engineering (ROME) group, are in the process of implementing a combined Facility Condition Assessment (FCA) and Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) program to improve asset management and overall reliability of testing equipment in facilities such as wind tunnels. Specific areas are being identified for improvement, the deferred maintenance cost is being estimated, and priority is being assigned against facilities where conditions have been allowed to deteriorate. This assessment serves to assist in determining where to commit available funds on the Center. RCM methodologies are being reviewed and enhanced to assure that appropriate preventive, predictive, and facilities/equipment acceptance techniques are incorporated to prolong lifecycle availability and assure reliability at minimum cost. The results from the program have been favorable, better enabling LaRC to manage assets prudently.

Rubert, Kennedy F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Behavioral Health/Employee Assistance. Interim Program Report FY 2020

The Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) Corporate Behavioral Health Program is a workplace- based program that: 1) provides Employee Assistance Program (EAP) services including early identification and resolution of personal concerns which may impact job performance, 2) assists managers and the organization in addressing productivity issues, and 3) supports the SNL commitment to provide a safe and healthful work environment. The program is offered to approximately 13,500 employees in New Mexico. The Behavioral Health Program is a corporate program combining services in NM and CA. It is integrated with other occupational health and clinical services including disability, disease management and preventive health programs. In addition, Sandia's Behavioral Health Program provides critical management consultation and psychological assessment services for external organizations including Human Resources, the Department of Energy and Security through the Clinical Evaluation (CE) process, Human Reliability Program (HRP), Protective Force Program, Workplace Violence/Threat Assessment Team (TAT), and Insider Threat Working Group programs. The program supports Sandia National Laboratories' mission to safeguard national security, the environment, and the public; it is a proactive approach to early identification, intervention and assessment. Importantly, it reduces barriers to accessing mental health services and assists with reducing health care costs attributed to illness or injuries related to unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors. The team is comprised of a professional staff including a licensed Clinical Psychologist, a licensed professional clinical counselor (LPCC) and a licensed Marriage and Family counselor (MFT) who is also a Certified Employee Assistance Professional and who holds a doctorate in counseling psychology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the effect of meso/submesoscale current–wave interactions on wave energy resource characterization at northeast U.S. coast

Wave energy is a promising renewable resource, but accurate assessment is difficult in regions with strong currents due to wave–current interactions (WCI). Here, this study develops a two-way coupled WCI model within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework at 2 km resolution to improve wave energy characterization along the northeastern U.S. coast, including the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine. The model integrates WaveWatchIII (WWIII) and the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to enhance wave hindcasting by accounting for Doppler-shift, refraction, and nonlinear energy exchanges. Validation against buoy and satellite observations confirms model accuracy. Analysis shows that Doppler-shifting can alter wave power density by over 20%, while strong current gradients and shear distort wave crests via focusing/defocusing and stretching/squeezing, modifying wave direction and frequency. These processes together can induce wave power fluctuations of up to 40% on synoptic scales. Applying a 2.5 MW Ocean Energy Converter power matrix shows that WCI may change harvested energy by up to 100% in shallow-waters and 60% in deep-waters. These results underscore the importance of incorporating nonlinear WCI for reliable wave climate predictions and resource assessments in energetic coastal regions.

doppler-shift↗
DOE OSTI2020

2020 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

The study looks at the evolution of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market across the last decade to provide an understanding of how the market arrived at its current condition. In addition, the study examines four scenarios and utilizes probabilistic dispatch analysis to assess the potential for resource adequacy and reliability concerns under those scenarios. The study finds that under three of the four scenarios, the region will see an increased risk for Energy Emergency Alerts and need for emergency operator actions to ensure the reliable delivery of electricity to the more than 25 million people who ERCOT serves.

2020↗
NASA NTRS1986

Software reliability - Measures and effects in flight critical digital avionics systems

The paper discusses software reliability as it applies particularly to design and evaluation of flight-critical digital avionics systems. Measures of software reliability, measurement methods and reliability (macro-) models are discussed. Recent work assessing their accuracy in predicting software errors in 'fly-by-wire' Newtonian applications is presented. Additional, detailed topics are discussed including software error distributions (e.g. catastrophic vs. noncatastrophic) and the effects of system growth/maturity on reliability improvement. In practical flight-critical digital applications, software reliability improvement is sought through use of parallel, redundant software (i.e. N-version programming) or backup software that can be invoked in the event of (primary) software failure. Achievable reliability levels are however highly sensitive to common-mode specification and programming errors. Recent data correlating these errors with net software reliability are discussed.

Dunn, William R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Metallic Thermal Protection System Technology Development: Concepts, Requirements and Assessment Overview

A technology development program was conducted to evolve an earlier metallic thermal protection system (TPS) panel design, with the goals of: improving operations features, increasing adaptability (ease of attaching to a variety of tank shapes and structural concepts), and reducing weight. The resulting Adaptable Robust Metallic Operable Reusable (ARMOR) TPS system incorporates a high degree of design flexibility (allowing weight and operability to be traded and balanced) and can also be easily integrated with a large variety of tank shapes, airframe structural arrangements and airframe structure/material concepts. An initial attempt has been made to establish a set of performance based TPS design requirements. A set of general (FARtype) requirements have been proposed, focusing on defining categories that must be included for a comprehensive design. Load cases required for TPS design must reflect the full flight envelope, including a comprehensive set of limit loads, However, including additional loads. such as ascent abort trajectories, as ultimate load cases, and on-orbit debris/micro-meteoroid hypervelocity impact, as one of the discrete -source -damage load cases, will have a significant impact on system design and resulting performance, reliability and operability. Although these load cases have not been established, they are of paramount importance for reusable vehicles, and until properly included, all sizing results and assessments of reliability and operability must be considered optimistic at a minimum.

Dorsey, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Ares 1 Ascent Navigation Options

The paper documents a collaborative analysis of ascent Navigation options for the Ares 1 launch vehicle by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the C. S. Draper Laboratory. The objective of the work was the development of a Navigation concept and supporting requirements which meet the Ares 1 accuracy specification in a manner which is straightforward, reliable, and cost effective. Six primary Navigation architectures were considered. In each case analysis was performed to determine under what conditions the required accuracy at second stage cutoff could be achieved. Those architectures which met the accuracy requirements were then assessed in terms of cost, complexity, and reliability to determine a baseline Navigation approach and the primary supporting requirements.

Norris, Lee↗
NASA NTRS2013

Distributed Engine Control Empirical/Analytical Verification Tools

NASA's vision for an intelligent engine will be realized with the development of a truly distributed control system featuring highly reliable, modular, and dependable components capable of both surviving the harsh engine operating environment and decentralized functionality. A set of control system verification tools was developed and applied to a C-MAPSS40K engine model, and metrics were established to assess the stability and performance of these control systems on the same platform. A software tool was developed that allows designers to assemble easily a distributed control system in software and immediately assess the overall impacts of the system on the target (simulated) platform, allowing control system designers to converge rapidly on acceptable architectures with consideration to all required hardware elements. The software developed in this program will be installed on a distributed hardware-in-the-loop (DHIL) simulation tool to assist NASA and the Distributed Engine Control Working Group (DECWG) in integrating DCS (distributed engine control systems) components onto existing and next-generation engines.The distributed engine control simulator blockset for MATLAB/Simulink and hardware simulator provides the capability to simulate virtual subcomponents, as well as swap actual subcomponents for hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) analysis. Subcomponents can be the communication network, smart sensor or actuator nodes, or a centralized control system. The distributed engine control blockset for MATLAB/Simulink is a software development tool. The software includes an engine simulation, a communication network simulation, control algorithms, and analysis algorithms set up in a modular environment for rapid simulation of different network architectures; the hardware consists of an embedded device running parts of the CMAPSS engine simulator and controlled through Simulink. The distributed engine control simulation, evaluation, and analysis technology provides unique capabilities to study the effects of a given change to the control system in the context of the distributed paradigm. The simulation tool can support treatment of all components within the control system, both virtual and real; these include communication data network, smart sensor and actuator nodes, centralized control system (FADEC full authority digital engine control), and the aircraft engine itself. The DECsim tool can allow simulation-based prototyping of control laws, control architectures, and decentralization strategies before hardware is integrated into the system. With the configuration specified, the simulator allows a variety of key factors to be systematically assessed. Such factors include control system performance, reliability, weight, and bandwidth utilization.

DeCastro, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Addressing Uniqueness and Unison of Reliability and Safety for a Better Integration

Over time, it has been observed that Safety and Reliability have not been clearly differentiated, which leads to confusion, inefficiency, and, sometimes, counter-productive practices in executing each of these two disciplines. It is imperative to address this situation to help Reliability and Safety disciplines improve their effectiveness and efficiency. The paper poses an important question to address, "Safety and Reliability - Are they unique or unisonous?" To answer the question, the paper reviewed several most commonly used analyses from each of the disciplines, namely, FMEA, reliability allocation and prediction, reliability design involvement, system safety hazard analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The paper pointed out uniqueness and unison of Safety and Reliability in their respective roles, requirements, approaches, and tools, and presented some suggestions for enhancing and improving the individual disciplines, as well as promoting the integration of the two. The paper concludes that Safety and Reliability are unique, but compensating each other in many aspects, and need to be integrated. Particularly, the individual roles of Safety and Reliability need to be differentiated, that is, Safety is to ensure and assure the product meets safety requirements, goals, or desires, and Reliability is to ensure and assure maximum achievability of intended design functions. With the integration of Safety and Reliability, personnel can be shared, tools and analyses have to be integrated, and skill sets can be possessed by the same person with the purpose of providing the best value to a product development.

Huang, Zhaofeng↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assessing C2 Communications for UAS Traffic Management

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project works to develop tools and technologies essential for safely enabling civilian low-altitude UAS operations. Currently there is no established infrastructure to enable and safely manage the widespread use of low-altitude airspace and UAS operations, regardless of the type of UAS. The UTM technical challenge will develop comprehensive and validated airspace operations and integration requirements to safely enable large-scale persistent access to visual line of sight and autonomous beyond visual line of sight small UAS in low-altitude airspace. Within the UTM project, a number of communications technologies to support UTM command and control (C2) are under investigation. In particular, commercial networked cellular systems are being tested and assessed for their ability to meet the reliability, scalability, cybersecurity and redundancy required. NASA Glenn Research Center is studying some of the aspects of employing such networks for UTM C2 communications. This includes the development of a test platform for sensing and characterizing the airborne C2 communications environment at various altitudes and in various terrains and topologies, measuring such aspects as received signal strength and interference. System performance aspects such as latency in the link, handover performance, packet error loss rate, drop outs, coverage gaps and other aspects impacting UTM operation will also be assessed. In this paper we explore some of the C2 approaches being proposed and demonstrated in the UTM project, the reliability, availability and other general C2 performance requirements, and approaches to evaluating and analyzing UTM C2 links based on commercial cellular networks.

air traffic control↗