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At least 793 records · Page 44

Evaluation of long-duration exposure to the natural space environment on graphite-polyimide and graphite-epoxy mechanical properties (A0175)

The primary objective of this experiment is to accumulate the needed operational data associated with the exposure of graphite-polyimide and graphite-epoxy material to the environments of space. The experiment will be mounted in two 3-in.-deep peripheral trays. Graphite-polyimide specimens will occupy 1 1/3 trays and the graphite-epoxy specimens will occupy two-thirds of a tray. The experiment approach requires two matched sets of specimens with traceable records that are maintained for materials processing and specimen quality. After fabrication, one set of each test specimen will be sectioned and structurally tested to serve as a data baseline. After the flight, the other set of specimens will undergo extensive measurements of mechanical properties for comparison with the original data baseline. Structural testing of the graphite-polyimide specimens will provide strength and elastic data in tension, compression, and shear. Transverse tension microcracking and crack propagation will be evaluated by photomicroscopy. Structural testing of the graphite-epoxy specimens will include verification of laminate, core, adhesive, and fatigue properties as applied to the design and analysis of the payload bay door. Microcracking and crack propagation will also be analyzed by photomicroscopy.

Powell, J. H.↗

DDS-Suite - A Dynamic Data Acquisition, Processing, and Analysis System for Wind Tunnel Testing

Wind Tunnels have optimized their steady-state data systems for acquisition and analysis and even implemented large dynamic-data acquisition systems, however development of near real-time processing and analysis tools for dynamic-data have lagged. DDS-Suite is a set of tools used to acquire, process, and analyze large amounts of dynamic data. Each phase of the testing process: acquisition, processing, and analysis are handled by separate components so that bottlenecks in one phase of the process do not affect the other, leading to a robust system. DDS-Suite is capable of acquiring 672 channels of dynamic data at rate of 275 MB / s. More than 300 channels of the system use 24-bit analog-to-digital cards and are capable of producing data with less than 0.01 of phase difference at 1 kHz. System architecture, design philosophy, and examples of use during NASA Constellation and Fundamental Aerodynamic tests are discussed.

Burnside, Jathan J.↗

Preparation for and Performance of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Experiment On Board the International Space Station

Biofilms are a problem on Earth given their ability to degrade the materials upon which they grow and due to their relevance to infections. Remarkably, 65% and 80% of infections and chronic diseases on Earth are associated with biofilms, respectively. In space, these problems' impact is higher because the crew's lives and mission success depend on nominal operation of mechanical systems. Furthermore, the isolated confined environment nature of spaceflight may increase the rates of disease transmission. In the case of the International Space Station (ISS), biofilms are an identified problem on the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), namely on the water processor assembly (WPA). In late 2019, the Space Biofilms experiment launched towards ISS to (i) characterize the mass, thickness, morphology, and gene expression of biofilms formed in space with respect to matched Earth controls, (ii) interrogate the expression of antimicrobial resistance genes, and (iii) test novel materials as potential biofilm control strategies for future ECLSS components. For this, 288 bacterial samples were prepared prior to the launch of the Northrop Grumman CRS-12 mission from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility. The samples were integrated into the spaceflight hardware, BioServe's Fluid Processing Apparatus (FPA) packed in sets of eight in Group Activation Packs (GAP). Half of these samples were activated and terminated on orbit by NASA astronauts Jessica Meir and Christina Koch, while the remaining half were processed equivalently on Earth. The spaceflight bacterial samples of Space Biofilms returned on board SpaceX' CRS-19 Dragon spacecraft, in early 2020. We here describe the test campaign implemented to verify the experiment design and confirm it would enable us to achieve the project's scientific goals. This campaign ended with the Experiment Verification Test (EVT), from which we here present example morphology and transcriptomic results. We describe in detail the sample preparation prior to flight, including cleaning and sterilization of the coupons of six materials (SS316, passivated-SS316, lubricant impregnated surface, catheter-grade silicone with and without a nanotopography, and cellulose membrane), loading and integration of growth media, bacterial inoculum, fixative and preservative to enable experiment termination on orbit. Additionally, we describe the performance of the experiment on board the ISS, including crew activities, use of assets, temperature profile, and experiment timeline; all leading to a successful spaceflight experiment.

Pamela Flores↗

The interplay between vapour, liquid, and solid phases in laser powder bed fusion

The capability of producing complex, high performance metal parts on demand has established laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) as a promising additive manufacturing technology, yet deeper understanding of the laser-material interaction is crucial to exploit the potential of the process. By simultaneous in-situ synchrotron x-ray and schlieren imaging, we probe directly the interconnected fluid dynamics of the vapour jet formed by the laser and the depression it produces in the melt pool. The combined imaging shows the formation of a stable plume over stable surface depressions, which becomes chaotic following transition to a full keyhole. We quantify process instability across several parameter sets by analysing keyhole and plume morphologies, and identify a previously unreported threshold of the energy input required for stable line scans. The effect of the powder layer and its impact on process stability is explored. These high-speed visualisations of the fluid mechanics governing LPBF enable us to identify unfavourable process dynamics associated with unwanted porosity, aiding the design of process windows at higher power and speed, and providing the potential for in-process monitoring of process stability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SPAR data set contents

The contents of the stored data sets of the SPAR (space processing applications rocket) finite element structural analysis system are documented. The data generated by each of the system's processors are stored in a data file organized as a library. Each data set, containing a two-dimensional table or matrix, is identified by a four-word name listed in a table of contents. The creating SPAR processor, number of rows and columns, and definitions of each of the data items are listed for each data set. An example SPAR problem using these data sets is also presented.

Cunningham, S. W.↗

Variance Analysis of Unevenly Spaced Time Series Data

We have investigated the effect of uneven data spacing on the computation of delta (sub chi)(gamma). Evenly spaced simulated data sets were generated for noise processes ranging from white phase modulation (PM) to random walk frequency modulation (FM). Delta(sub chi)(gamma) was then calculated for each noise type. Data were subsequently removed from each simulated data set using typical two-way satellite time and frequency transfer (TWSTFT) data patterns to create two unevenly spaced sets with average intervals of 2.8 and 3.6 days. Delta(sub chi)(gamma) was then calculated for each sparse data set using two different approaches. First the missing data points were replaced by linear interpolation and delta (sub chi)(gamma) calculated from this now full data set. The second approach ignored the fact that the data were unevenly spaced and calculated delta(sub chi)(gamma) as if the data were equally spaced with average spacing of 2.8 or 3.6 days. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages, and techniques are presented for correcting errors caused by uneven data spacing in typical TWSTFT data sets.

Hackman, Christine↗

Analytical Laboratory Science on the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Mission

The Odyssey Missions orbital maps of near surface ice abundance using neutron spectroscopy (Boynton et al., 2002), the Mars Exploration Rover s confirmation of aqueous processing (Squyres et al., 2004), and the Mars Express detailed infrared maps of specific mineral types that were likely formed in aqueous environments (Bibring et al., 2005) have dramatically expanded our tool set for understanding of aqueous processes on Mars. The 2009 Mars Science Laboratory is designed to extend the "follow the water" crosscutting theme of the Mars Exploration Program toward an even more detailed exploration of habitability - the potential of the Mars environment to support life. The next steps in understanding the habitability of Mars are a more detailed in situ analysis of the chemical state of elements such as C, H, O, N, S, P, Ca, and Fe that are essential for terrestrial life. Of particular interest are experiments that establish definitive mineralogy for a wider range of compounds and those that implement a more comprehensive and sensitive search for organic molecules both in the atmosphere and in surface or near surface rocks, soils, and fines. The recent reports of atmospheric methane in the Martian atmosphere make the organics exploration even more compelling. The substantial mass and power resources of MSL combined with its mobility and powerful sample acquisition and processing tools will enable it to locate a variety of near-surface samples and analyze these in some detail. NASA is presently considering the possibility of landing a second MSL rover in 2011.

Mahaffy, P. R.↗

Selective Deposition and Fusion of AISI 316L: An Additive Manufacturing Process for Space Environments via Direct Ink Writing and Laser Processing

Unlocking the potential of additive manufacturing (AM) for space exploration hinges on overcoming key challenges, notably the ability to manufacture or repair parts on-site during exploration missions with consideration of quality, feedstock utilization, and challenges involved in microgravity environments. While there are multiple efforts to investigate the use of existing metal AM processes such as powder bed fusion (PBF), directed energy deposition (DED), and filament-based material extrusion, each process comes with a different set of challenges in space environments. Here, in this work, we introduce a new AM method that integrates the benefits of direct ink writing (DIW) to selectively deposit metallic pastes with laser-based processing to locally debind and subsequently melt and fuse metal powder, layer by layer, enabling the manufacturing of AISI 316L samples with densities exceeding 99.0%. The impact of process parameters on single-track dimensions, surface morphology, and porosity was characterized. The efficacy of laser debinding was assessed via secondary-ion mass spectrometry, permitting the carbon content to be estimated at 0.0152%, which is safely below the acceptable limit (0.03 wt%) for AISI 316L.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of the SFC database for analysis and modeling

SFC is one of the four clusters that make up the Integrated Work Control System (IWCS), which will integrate the shuttle processing databases at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The IWCS framework will enable communication among the four clusters and add new data collection protocols. The Shop Floor Control (SFC) module has been operational for two and a half years; however, at this stage, automatic links to the other 3 modules have not been implemented yet, except for a partial link to IOS (CASPR). SFC revolves around a DB/2 database with PFORMS acting as the database management system (DBMS). PFORMS is an off-the-shelf DB/2 application that provides a set of data entry screens and query forms. The main dynamic entity in the SFC and IOS database is a task; thus, the physical storage location and update privileges are driven by the status of the WAD. As we explored the SFC values, we realized that there was much to do before actually engaging in continuous analysis of the SFC data. Half way into this effort, it was realized that full scale analysis would have to be a future third phase of this effort. So, we concentrated on getting to know the contents of the database, and in establishing an initial set of tools to start the continuous analysis process. Specifically, we set out to: (1) provide specific procedures for statistical models, so as to enhance the TP-OAO office analysis and modeling capabilities; (2) design a data exchange interface; (3) prototype the interface to provide inputs to SCRAM; and (4) design a modeling database. These objectives were set with the expectation that, if met, they would provide former TP-OAO engineers with tools that would help them demonstrate the importance of process-based analyses. The latter, in return, will help them obtain the cooperation of various organizations in charting out their individual processes.

Centeno, Martha A.↗

Ultraviolet Fluorescence Imaging for Photovoltaic Module Metrology: Best Practices and Survey of Features Observed in Fielded Modules

As the photovoltaics (PV) industry grows in sophistication, so must the extent to which systems are characterized. UV Fluorescence (UVF) imaging is a valuable, easy-to-perform, high-throughput, nonintrusive technique for characterizing modules in the field and in the lab. However, UVF is still a relatively new technique, and many in the PV industry are still unaware of its potential. We provide a guideline for obtaining, processing, and interpreting UVF images. We have provided a list of considerations for imaging hardware and settings, a suggested pipeline for image processing, and details on a survey of features shown in UVF images. As a result, a new database with UVF images of 7190 modules and another database curated by BrightSpot Automation are publicly available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Influence of β-decay Rates on r-process Observables

Abstract The rapid neutron capture process ( r -process) is one of the main mechanisms whereby elements heavier than iron are synthesized, and is entirely responsible for the natural production of the actinides. Kilonova emissions are modeled as being largely powered by the radioactive decay of species synthesized via the r -process. Given that the r -process occurs far from nuclear stability, unmeasured beta-decay rates play an essential role in setting the timescale for the r -process. In an effort to better understand the sensitivity of kilonova modeling to different theoretical global beta-decay descriptions, we incorporate these into nucleosynthesis calculations. We compare the results of these calculations and highlight differences in kilonova nuclear energy generation and light-curve predictions, as well as final abundances and their implications for nuclear cosmochronometry. We investigate scenarios where differences in beta-decay rates are responsible for increased nuclear heating on timescales of days that propagates into a significantly increased average bolometric luminosity between 1 and 10 days post-merger. We identify key nuclei, both measured and unmeasured, whose decay rates directly impact nuclear heating generation on timescales responsible for light-curve evolution. We also find that uncertainties in beta-decay rates significantly impact age estimates from cosmochronometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strategies for automatic planning: A collection of ideas

The main goal of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is to obtain science return from interplanetary probes. The uplink process is concerned with communicating commands to a spacecraft in order to achieve science objectives. There are two main parts to the development of the command file which is sent to a spacecraft. First, the activity planning process integrates the science requests for utilization of spacecraft time into a feasible sequence. Then the command generation process converts the sequence into a set of commands. The development of a feasible sequence plan is an expensive and labor intensive process requiring many months of effort. In order to save time and manpower in the uplink process, automation of parts of this process is desired. There is an ongoing effort to develop automatic planning systems. This has met with some success, but has also been informative about the nature of this effort. It is now clear that innovative techniques and state-of-the-art technology will be required in order to produce a system which can provide automatic sequence planning. As part of this effort to develop automatic planning systems, a survey of the literature, looking for known techniques which may be applicable to our work was conducted. Descriptions of and references for these methods are given, together with ideas for applying the techniques to automatic planning.

Collins, Carol↗

A Framework for Preliminary Design of Aircraft Structures Based on Process Information

This report discusses the general framework and development of a computational tool for preliminary design of aircraft structures based on process information. The described methodology is suitable for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) activities associated with integrated product and process development (IPPD). The framework consists of three parts: (1) product and process definitions; (2) engineering synthesis, and (3) optimization. The product and process definitions are part of input information provided by the design team. The backbone of the system is its ability to analyze a given structural design for performance as well as manufacturability and cost assessment. The system uses a database on material systems and manufacturing processes. Based on the identified set of design variables and an objective function, the system is capable of performing optimization subject to manufacturability, cost, and performance constraints. The accuracy of the manufacturability measures and cost models discussed here depend largely on the available data on specific methods of manufacture and assembly and associated labor requirements. As such, our focus in this research has been on the methodology itself and not so much on its accurate implementation in an industrial setting. A three-tier approach is presented for an IPPD-MDO based design of aircraft structures. The variable-complexity cost estimation methodology and an approach for integrating manufacturing cost assessment into design process are also discussed. This report is presented in two parts. In the first part, the design methodology is presented, and the computational design tool is described. In the second part, a prototype model of the preliminary design Tool for Aircraft Structures based on Process Information (TASPI) is described. Part two also contains an example problem that applies the methodology described here for evaluation of six different design concepts for a wing spar.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

Process Optimization

Process optimization is the discipline of adjusting a process to optimize a specified set of parameters without violating engineering constraints. This article reviews data-driven optimization methods based on genetic algorithms and stochastic models and demonstrates their use in powder-bed fusion and directed energy deposition processes. In the latter case, closed-loop feedback is used to control melt pool temperature and cooling rate in order to achieve desired microstructure.

Sprayberry, Michael↗

Increasing Efficiency at the NTF by Optimizing Model AoA Positioning

The National Transonic Facility (NTF) at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is a national resource for aeronautical research and development. The government, military and private industries rely on the capability of this facility for realistic flight data. Reducing the operation costs and keeping the NTF affordable is essential for aeronautics research. The NTF is undertaking an effort to reduce the time between data points during a pitch polar. This reduction is being driven by the operating costs of a cryogenic facility. If the time per data point can be reduced, a substantial cost savings can be realized from a reduction in liquid nitrogen (LN2) consumption. It is known that angle-of-attack (AoA) positioning is the longest lead-time item between points. In January 2005 a test was conducted at the NTF to determine the cause of the long lead-time so that an effort could be made to improve efficiency. The AoA signal at the NTF originates from onboard instrumentation then travels through a number of different systems including the signal conditioner, digital voltmeter, and the data system where the AoA angle is calculated. It is then fed into a closed loop control system that sets the model position. Each process along this path adds to the time per data point affecting the efficiency of the data taking process. Due to the nature of the closed loop feed back AoA control and the signal path, it takes approximately 18 seconds to take one pitch pause point with a typical AoA increment. Options are being investigated to reduce the time delay between points by modifying the signal path. These options include: reduced signal filtering, using analog channels instead of a digital volt meter (DVM), re-routing the signal directly to the AoA control computer and implementing new control algorithms. Each of these has potential to reduce the positioning time and together the savings could be significant. These timesaving efforts are essential but must be weighed against possible loss of data quality. For example, a reduction in filtering can introduce noise into the signal and using analog channels could result in some loss of accuracy. Data quality assessments need to be performed concurrently with timesaving techniques since data quality parameters are essential in maintaining facility integrity. This paper will highlight time saving efforts being undertaken or studied at the NTF. It will outline the instrumentation and computer systems involved in setting of the model pitch attitude then suggest changes to the process and discuss how these system changes would effect the time between data points. It also discusses the issue of data quality and how the potential efficiency changes in the system could affect it. Lastly, it will discuss the possibility of using an open loop control system and give some pros and cons of this method.

Crawford, Bradley L.↗

Recalibration of the NASA Exterior Effects Room

The Exterior Effects Room (EER) is a psychoacoustic testing facility at NASA Langley Research Center which primarily focuses on testing human response to aircraft noise. The 39-seat auditorium houses a real-time spatial audio system and flyover simulation environment. The audio server utilizes an implementation of three-dimensional vector base amplitude panning (VBAP), a perceptual spatial audio technique exploiting loudspeaker triplets to place a virtual sound source at an arbitrary spatial position. Due to the irregular room geometry and nonuniform loudspeaker setup, the audio server applies equalization filtering to compensate for spectral coloration attributed to loudspeaker installation, crossover filtering, and delay/gain offsets. These filters can incorporate measurements taken at multiple listening points, allowing a more extensive listening area than filters derived from measurements taken at a single listening point. This work endeavors to update the existing equalization filter generation process by producing a new set of filters for various human subject testing scenarios.

Signal Processing↗

A new method for recognizing quadric surfaces from range data and its application to telerobotics and automation

The problem of recognizing and positioning of objects in three-dimensional space is important for robotics and navigation applications. In recent years, digital range data, also referred to as range images or depth maps, have been available for the analysis of three-dimensional objects owing to the development of several active range finding techniques. The distinct advantage of range images is the explicitness of the surface information available. Many industrial and navigational robotics tasks will be more easily accomplished if such explicit information can be efficiently interpreted. In this research, a new technique based on analytic geometry for the recognition and description of three-dimensional quadric surfaces from range images is presented. Beginning with the explicit representation of quadrics, a set of ten coefficients are determined for various three-dimensional surfaces. For each quadric surface, a unique set of two-dimensional curves which serve as a feature set is obtained from the various angles at which the object is intersected with a plane. Based on a discriminant method, each of the curves is classified as a parabola, circle, ellipse, hyperbola, or a line. Each quadric surface is shown to be uniquely characterized by a set of these two-dimensional curves, thus allowing discrimination from the others. Before the recognition process can be implemented, the range data have to undergo a set of pre-processing operations, thereby making it more presentable to classification algorithms. One such pre-processing step is to study the effect of median filtering on raw range images. Utilizing a variety of surface curvature techniques, reliable sets of image data that approximate the shape of a quadric surface are determined. Since the initial orientation of the surfaces is unknown, a new technique is developed wherein all the rotation parameters are determined and subsequently eliminated. This approach enables us to position the quadric surfaces in a desired coordinate system. Experiments were conducted on raw range images of spheres, cylinders, and cones. Experiments were also performed on simulated data for surfaces such as hyperboloids of one and two sheets, elliptical and hyperbolic paraboloids, elliptical and hyperbolic cylinders, ellipsoids and the quadric cones. Both the real and simulated data yielded excellent results. Our approach is found to be more accurate and computationally inexpensive as compared to traditional approaches, such as the three-dimensional discriminant approach which involves evaluation of the rank of a matrix. Finally, we have proposed one other new approach, which involves the formulation of a mapping between the explicit and implicit forms of representing quadric surfaces. This approach, when fully realized, will yield a three-dimensional discriminant, which will recognize quadric surfaces based upon their component surfaces patches. This approach is faster than prior approaches and at the same time is invariant to pose and orientation of the surfaces in three-dimensional space.

Alvertos, Nicolas↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗