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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Inductive predictions of hydrologic events using a Long Short-Term Memory network and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We present machine learning methods to predict hydrologic features such as streamflow and soil moisture from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. Here, we used a temporal reduction technique to reduce computation and memory requirements and trained a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict soil moisture and streamflow over multiple watersheds. We show LSTM networks can be trained in a fraction of the time required by complex process-based and attention-based models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and GeoMAN without sacrificing accuracy. We also demonstrate that outside data - sourced from a watershed other than the target - can be used to train LSTM to comparable or even superior prediction accuracy. The success of LSTM in such spatially-inductive settings shows hydrologic features can be predicted with minimal prior knowledge of the watershed in question. Finally, we make all methodologies of this work publicly available as an end-to-end software pipeline that facilitates rapid prototyping of hydrologic learners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental study for critical heat flux in 2x2 rod bundles at high pressure conditions

Critical heat flux (CHF) phenomena has been a topic of study for over fifty years yet remains a serious concern across industries and especially in water-cooled nuclear reactor design. CHF data in the high-pressure range is limited, and the effects of bundle geometry and non-uniform heat flux profile are challenging to quantify. In this study, CHF experiments were performed in upward flowing water in a 2 × 2 rod bundle with a cosine profile heat flux. Data were collected between 16.5 and 18 MPa at two mass flux conditions with three inlet subcooling conditions. Under these conditions, average CHF was shown to decrease with increasing pressure. However, pressure had less of an effect than decreasing the inlet subcooling or the mass flux, both of which reduce the CHF value considerably. Of interest, correlations that have been developed for lower pressure continued to predict CHF occurrences with moderate accuracy outside their ranges of validity. Nearly all predicted values were within 20% of experimental values.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven organic solubility prediction at the limit of aleatoric uncertainty

Abstract Small molecule solubility is a critically important property which affects the efficiency, environmental impact, and phase behavior of synthetic processes. Experimental determination of solubility is a time- and resource-intensive process and existing methods for in silico estimation of solubility are limited by their generality, speed, and accuracy. This work presents two models derived from the FASTPROP and CHEMPROP architectures and trained on BigSolDB which are capable of predicting solubility at arbitrary temperatures for a wide range of small molecules in organic solvent. Both extrapolate to unseen solutes 2–3 times more accurately than the current state-of-the-art model and we demonstrate that they are approaching the aleatoric limit (0.5–1$$\log S$$ log S ) of available test data, suggesting that further improvements in prediction accuracy require more accurate datasets. The FASTPROP-derived model (called FASTSOLV) and the CHEMPROP-based model are open source, freely accessible via a Python package and web interface, highly reproducible, and up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than current alternatives.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Forgetting and Discount Factors for Vehicle Speed Forecasting in Ecological Adaptive Cruise Control

Abstract This paper investigates temporal correlations in human driving behavior using real-world driving to improve speed forecasting accuracy. These correlations can point to a measurement weighting function with two parameters: a forgetting factor for past speed measurements that the vehicle itself drove with, and a discount factor for the speeds of vehicles ahead based on information from vehicle-to-vehicle communication. The developed weighting approach is applied to a vehicle speed predictor using polynomial regression, a prediction method well-known in the literature. The performance of the developed approach is then assessed in both real-world and simulated traffic scenarios for accuracy and robustness. The new weighting method is applied to an ecological adaptive cruise control system, and its influence is analyzed on the prediction accuracy and the performance of the ecological adaptive cruise control in an electric vehicle powertrain model. The results show that the new prediction method improves energy saving from the eco-driving by up to 4.7% compared to a baseline least-square-based polynomial regression. This is a 10% improvement over the constant speed/acceleration model, a conventional speed predictor.

Automation & Control Systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protein–Ligand Binding Free-Energy Calculations with ARROW–A Purely First-Principles Parameterized Polarizable Force Field

Protein–ligand binding free-energy calculations using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have emerged as a powerful tool for in silico drug design. Here, we present results obtained with the ARROW force field (FF)–a multipolar polarizable and physics-based model with all parameters fitted entirely to high-level ab initio quantum mechanical (QM) calculations. ARROW has already proven its ability to determine solvation free energy of arbitrary neutral compounds with unprecedented accuracy. The ARROW FF parameterization is now extended to include coverage of all amino acids including charged groups, allowing molecular simulations of a series of protein–ligand systems and prediction of their relative binding free energies. We ensure adequate sampling by applying a novel technique that is based on coupling the Hamiltonian Replica exchange (HREX) with a conformation reservoir generated via potential softening and nonequilibrium MD. ARROW provides predictions with near chemical accuracy (mean absolute error of ~0.5 kcal/mol) for two of the three protein systems studied here (MCL1 and Thrombin). The third protein system (CDK2) reveals the difficulty in accurately describing dimer interaction energies involving polar and charged species. Overall, for all of the three protein systems studied here, ARROW FF predicts relative binding free energies of ligands with a similar accuracy level as leading nonpolarizable force fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of perturbed parallel magnetic field effects in predicting turbulent transport in NSTX

This study presents analysis of gyrokinetic simulations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) to investigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on plasma turbulence and transport. The simulations, performed with varying levels of fidelity using the gyrokinetic CGYRO code, include electrostatic (ES), single-field electromagnetic (EM1), and two-field electromagnetic (EM2) models. A detailed comparison across the simulation database reveals that electromagnetic effects increase both predicted growth rates and quasilinear fluxes, with EM2 simulations producing stronger turbulence than ES and EM1 cases. Quasilinear modeling using QLGYRO demonstrates that while the perturbed parallel magnetic field (δB ∥ ) does not drastically affect the total flux at experimental gradients, it leads to a shift in the dominant instability, altering mode structures from microtearing to kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). The proximity of the plasma profiles to the KBM threshold is explored, with the experimental conditions being near the onset of KBM-driven transport. The KBM, with its large growth rates, is identified as a potential driver of electron temperature flattening, as it can rapidly transport heat across flux surfaces. Performing stability analysis shows core-localized unstable a low- mode that could contribute to the flattening at the early times of the discharge. TGYRO predictive modeling, incorporating both TGLF and QLGYRO, indicates that the inclusion of δB ∥ significantly improves the accuracy of temperature profile predictions in NSTX high-beta plasmas, although challenges remain in modeling the sharp flux discontinuities caused by KBM-driven instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An electrochemical mesoscale tool for modeling the corrosion of structural alloys by molten salt

Understanding the impact of microstructure on corrosion rates can aid the development of corrosion-resistant alloys for molten salt reactors. Here in this work, we develop an electrochemical phase-field model for capturing the microstructure-dependent corrosion of structural alloys by molten salts. As a demonstration problem, we apply this model to capture the selective depletion of Cr from Ni-Cr grain boundaries during corrosion in molten FLiBe salt. We perform sensitivity analysis and model verification on 1D simulations to confirm that the model predicts diffusion-limited kinetics. The model is validated using 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations against experimental data for Ni-5Cr and Ni-20Cr corrosion in molten FLiBe. The 1D simulations predict the corrosion behavior with reasonable accuracy when using an effective diffusion coefficient that accurately represents the grain boundary diffusion. 2D simulations that represent the grain structure underpredict the corrosion. 3D simulations that represent the grain structure predict the corrosion with reasonable accuracy. The corrosion rate predicted by the 3D simulations is proportional to the average grain size at the alloy/salt interface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Effective Stress Measures: Predicting Creep Life for 3D Stresses Using 2D and 1D Creep Rupture Simulations and Data

Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting ptychography probe positions using single-shot phase retrieval neural network

Ptychography is a powerful imaging technique that is used in a variety of fields, including materials science, biology, and nanotechnology. However, the accuracy of the reconstructed ptychography image is highly dependent on the accuracy of the recorded probe positions which often contain errors. These errors are typically corrected jointly with phase retrieval through numerical optimization approaches. When the error accumulates along the scan path or when the error magnitude is large, these approaches may not converge with satisfactory result. We propose a fundamentally new approach for ptychography probe position prediction for data with large position errors, where a neural network is used to make single-shot phase retrieval on individual diffraction patterns, yielding the object image at each scan point. The pairwise offsets among these images are then found using a robust image registration method, and the results are combined to yield the complete scan path by constructing and solving a linear equation. We show that our method can achieve good position prediction accuracy for data with large and accumulating errors on the order of 10 2 pixels, a magnitude that often makes optimization-based algorithms fail to converge. For ptychography instruments without sophisticated position control equipment such as interferometers, our method is of significant practical potential.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supervised learning with word embeddings derived from PubMed captures latent knowledge about protein kinases and cancer

Abstract Inhibiting protein kinases (PKs) that cause cancers has been an important topic in cancer therapy for years. So far, almost 8% of >530 PKs have been targeted by FDA-approved medications, and around 150 protein kinase inhibitors (PKIs) have been tested in clinical trials. We present an approach based on natural language processing and machine learning to investigate the relations between PKs and cancers, predicting PKs whose inhibition would be efficacious to treat a certain cancer. Our approach represents PKs and cancers as semantically meaningful 100-dimensional vectors based on word and concept neighborhoods in PubMed abstracts. We use information about phase I-IV trials in ClinicalTrials.gov to construct a training set for random forest classification. Our results with historical data show that associations between PKs and specific cancers can be predicted years in advance with good accuracy. Our tool can be used to predict the relevance of inhibiting PKs for specific cancers and to support the design of well-focused clinical trials to discover novel PKIs for cancer therapy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Elucidating Structure–Spectra Relationships in Rhamnogalacturonan II: Computational Protocols for Accurate 13C and 1H Shifts for Apiose and Its Borate Esters

Apiose is a naturally occurring, uncommon branched-chain pentose found in plant cell walls as part of the complex polysaccharide Rhamnogalacturonan II (RG-II). The structural elucidation of the three-dimensional structure of RG-II by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is significantly complicated by the ability of apiose to cross-link via borate ester linkages to form RG-II dimers. Here, we developed a computational approach to gain insight into the structure–spectra relationships of apio–borate complexes in an effort to complement experimental assignments of NMR signals in RG-II. Our protocol involved structure optimizations using density functional theory (DFT) followed by isotropic magnetic shielding constant calculations using the gauge-invariant atomic orbital (GIAO) approach to predict chemical shifts. We evaluated the accuracy of 23 different functional–basis set (FBS) combinations with and without implicit solvation for predicting the experimental 1 H and 13 C shifts of a methyl apioside and its three borate derivatives. The computed NMR predictions were evaluated on the basis of the overall shift accuracy, relative shift ordering, and the ability to distinguish between dimers and monomers. We demonstrate that the consideration of implicit solvation during geometry optimizations in addition to the magnetic shielding constant calculations greatly increases the accuracy of NMR chemical shift predictions and can correctly reproduce the ordering of the 13 C shifts and yield predictions that are, on average, within 1.50 ppm for 13 C and 0.12 ppm for 1 H shifts for apio–borate compounds.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗