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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Gates, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Relative potentials of concentrating and two-axis tracking flat-plate photovoltaic arrays for central-station applications

The purpose of this study is to assess the relative economic potentials of concenrating and two-axis tracking flat-plate photovoltaic arrays for central-station applications in the mid-1990's. Specific objectives of this study are to provide information on concentrator photovoltaic collector probabilistic price and efficiency levels to illustrate critical areas of R&D for concentrator cells and collectors, and to compare concentrator and flat-plate PV price and efficiency alternatives for several locations, based on their implied costs of energy. To deal with the uncertainties surrounding research and development activities in general, a probabilistic assessment of commercially achievable concentrator photovoltaic collector efficiencies and prices (at the factory loading dock) is performed. The results of this projection of concentrator photovoltaic technology are then compared with a previous flat-plate module price analysis (performed early in 1983). To focus this analysis on specific collector alternatives and their implied energy costs for different locations, similar two-axis tracking designs are assumed for both concentrator and flat-plate options.

Borden, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Chamberlain, Robert G.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Design of Refractory Linings for Balanced Energy Efficiency, Uptime, and Capacity in Lime Kilns

The rotary kilns used by the pulp and paper industry to regenerate lime in the Kraft process are very energy intensive. Throughout the 90 s, in response to increasing fuel prices, the industry used back up insulation in conjunction with the high alumina brick used to line the burning zones of their kilns. While this improved energy efficiency, the practice of installing insulating brick behind the working lining increased the inner wall temperatures. In the worst case, due to the increased temperatures, rapid brick failures occurred causing unscheduled outages and expensive repairs. Despite these issues, for the most part, the industry continued to use insulating refractory linings in that the energy savings were large enough to offset any increase in the cost of maintaining the refractory lining. Due to the dramatic decline in the price of natural gas in some areas combined with mounting pressures to increasing production of existing assets, over the last decade, many mills are focusing more on increasing the uptime of their kilns as opposed to energy savings. To this end, a growing number of mills are using basic (magnesia based) brick instead of high alumina brick to line the burning zone of the kiln since the lime mud does not react with these bricks at the operating temperatures of the burning zone of the kiln. In the extreme case, a few mills have chosen to install basic brick in the front end of the kiln running a length equivalent to 10 diameters. While the use of basic brick can increase the uptime of the kiln and reduce the cost to maintain the refractory lining, it does dramatically increase the heat losses resulting from the increased operating temperatures of the shell. Also, over long periods of time operating at these high temperatures, damage can occur in the shell. There are tradeoffs between energy efficiency, capacity and uptime. When fuel prices are very high, it makes sense to insulate the lining. When fuel prices are lower, trading some thermal efficiency for increased uptime and capacity seems reasonable. This paper considers a number of refractory linings in an effort to develop optimized operating strategies that balance these factors. In addition to considering a range of refractory materials, the paper examines other factors such as the chain area, discharge dams and other operating variables that impact the service life of the refractory lining. The paper provides recommendations that will help mill personnel develop a strategy to select a refractory lining that is optimized for their specific situation.

Computational Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2016

Present and Future Silver Cost Component in Crystalline Silicon PV Module Manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to determine how increased c-Si PV module production might affect future silver demand and prices, as well as the impacts on total c-Si module manufacturing costs. To evaluate how PV's changing demand for silver might affect future silver prices, and the impact in terms of manufacturing costs, some scenarios of silver's contribution to c-Si PV cell manufacturing costs are compiled on the basis of projected changes in demand and price as a result of changes in material intensity. The analysis indicates that an expansion of c-Si production from 55GW/year to 250GW/year results in a 0.05-0.7 cent/W increase in manufacturing costs because of higher silver prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Systems and methods for energy cost optimization in a building system

Methods and systems to minimize energy cost in response to time-varying energy prices are presented for a variety of different pricing scenarios. A cascaded model predictive control system is disclosed comprising an inner controller and an outer controller. The inner controller controls power use using a derivative of a temperature setpoint and the outer controller controls temperature via a power setpoint or power deferral. An optimization procedure is used to minimize a cost function within a time horizon subject to temperature constraints, equality constraints, and demand charge constraints. Equality constraints are formulated using system model information and system state information whereas demand charge constraints are formulated using system state information and pricing information. A masking procedure is used to invalidate demand charge constraints for inactive pricing periods including peak, partial-peak, off-peak, critical-peak, and real-time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future: Preprint

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about the suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about the suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2017

NREL has been modeling U.S. photovoltaic (PV) system costs since 2009. This year, our report benchmarks costs of U.S. solar PV for residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems built in the first quarter of 2017 (Q1 2017). Costs are represented from the perspective of the developer/installer, thus all hardware costs represent the price at which components are purchased by the developer/installer, not accounting for preexisting supply agreements or other contracts. Importantly, the benchmark this year (2017) also represents the sales price paid to the installer; therefore, it includes profit in the cost of the hardware, along with the profit the installer/developer receives, as a separate cost category. However, it does not include any additional net profit, such as a developer fee or price gross-up, which are common in the marketplace. We adopt this approach owing to the wide variation in developer profits in all three sectors, where project pricing is highly dependent on region and project specifics such as local retail electricity rate structures, local rebate and incentive structures, competitive environment, and overall project or deal structures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential

Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity diurnally. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition in 2020 to default TOU rates for residential ratepayers in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that increasing wind and solar generation will materially affect the diurnal cost of wholesale electricity. As retail and wholesale prices become more aligned, this could affect the inter-technology economic viability of distributed generation. We assess economic viability through 'economic potential,' or the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a rate of return of 5.4%. In addition, we identify sensitivities of economic potential to capital costs and other techno-economic factors as well as the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. We find that TOU implementation is projected to moderately increase economic potential of distributed wind and marginally decrease that of distributed solar. Over the long-term as variable renewable energy penetration increases in California, particularly utility-scale solar, net peak load and thus peak prices will shift later in the evening. To the extent that retail rates continue to evolve with wholesale prices, we find the changes could positively affect the value of wind generation more than that of solar generation. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coordination of thermostatically controlled loads

Apparatus and methods for a market-based control framework to coordinate a group of autonomous thermostatically controlled loads (TCL) to achieve system-level objectives with pricing incentives is disclosed. In one example of the disclosed technology, a method of providing power to a load via a power grid by submitting bids to a coordinator includes determining an energy response relating price data for one or more energy prices to quantity data for power to be consumed by the load, sending a bid for power for a finite time period based on the energy response to the coordinator, and receiving a clearing price based on: the bid, on bids received from a plurality of additional loads, and a feeder power constraint. In some examples, the energy response is based at least in part on an equivalent thermal parameter model and a control policy indicating one or more power states for the load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Cost-Optimal Battery Energy and Solar-Plus-Storage Systems for Federal Customers: A Nationwide Assessment: Preprint

Prior research has identified that the financial viability of behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems is heavily dependent on technology cost, utility rate structure, energy consumption patterns, and co-deployment with synergistic technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), among other factors. This study builds on existing research by comprehensively evaluating the economics of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and solar-plus-storage systems for a reference office building at 755 reference sites under 834 utility rates, and four storage capital cost scenarios. Results indicate that even with dramatic cost reductions, BESS is likely to be cost-effective only under utility rates that include demand charges, and possibly include time-of-use (TOU) pricing as well. Even under these utility rates, BESS systems provide marginal savings, and office building operators are unlikely to deploy the technology for cost savings alone. Solar-plus-storage systems provide more savings than BESS and allow for larger economic storage capacities. Solar-plus-storage provides compelling savings opportunities at baseline prices, and even at capital costs 25% higher than baseline. Solar-plus-storage is most effective where there are demand charges and energy pricing schemes include TOU pricing, or where electricity is expensive (at least $0.30/kWh). Our case studies illustrate that the presence of demand charges, even at similar energy costs, can be the deciding factor in BESS and solar-plus-storage viability. The findings and maps from this assessment may be of use to planners, building owners, and developers looking for potentially economic storage opportunities.

battery energy storage systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts an existing, rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The resulting hourly price data from PLEXOS is provided to technology developers under the ARPA-E FLECCS program to enable technology-specific economic analysis. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming and the FLECCS teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options, new operational parameterizations, and detailed data defining CO2 capture, transportation, and storage systems are being integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities will take advantage of high-performance computing resources to permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative CO2 prices, fossil fuel prices, electricity demand growth, and other electric sector characteristics. Final outcomes will include publicly available hourly grid operation and price data for any U.S. region of interest along with open-access capacity expansion tools for evaluating CCS/NET systems. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

air capture↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordination of thermostatically controlled loads

Apparatus and methods for a market-based control framework to coordinate a group of autonomous thermostatically controlled loads (TCL) to achieve system-level objectives with pricing incentives is disclosed. In one example of the disclosed technology, a method of providing power to a load via a power grid by submitting bids to a coordinator includes determining an energy response relating price data for one or more energy prices to quantity data for power to be consumed by the load, sending a bid for power for a finite time period based on the energy response to the coordinator, and receiving a clearing price based on: the bid, on bids received from a plurality of additional loads, and a feeder power constraint. In some examples, the energy response is based at least in part on an equivalent thermal parameter model and a control policy indicating one or more power states for the load.

Lian, Jianming↗
DOE OSTI2016

An Economic Model of a Steam Accumulator Storage System for Nuclear Power Plants

The growth of non-dispatchable renewables benefits technologies with flexible load capabilities. Baseload technologies must accept low prices and revenues during low-demand periods that arise with increasing frequency as renewables deployment grows. For this reason, generators such as combined cycle gas turbines threaten to out-compete baseload, and nuclear power plants are facing early retirement. If utilities are to consider future nuclear power plants to be attractive investments they must excel at roles other than baseload generation. Energy storage offers a means to avoid times of low prices and capitalize on times of high prices, as well as for nuclear to participate in ancillary markets and provide grid stability and regulation services. This work explores the design of a steam accumulator system that can store energy from a nuclear plant. An economic model is created to determine the market conditions that will produce a profitable system. An energy storage capacity of 500 MWh is chosen as a base case, but the energy to power ratio (E/P ratio) is varied in sensitivity analyses while holding energy fixed. This paper first presents the proposed size and layout of the steam accumulator system. Next, it provides an overview of the thermodynamic model, which is used to determine the system size for base case conditions. An economic model is presented with sensitivity analyses, which show the effect of price volatility on net revenue. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗