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At least 793 records · Page 44

What Can the Curiosity Rover Tell Us About the Climate of Mars?

What Can the Curiosity Rover Tell Us About the Climate of Mars? Assessing the habitability of Gale Crater is the goal of the Curiosity Rover, which has been gathering data since landing on the Red Planet last August. To meet that goal, Curiosity brought with it a suite of instruments to measure the biological potential of the landing site, the geology and chemistry of its surface, and local environmental conditions. Some of these instruments illuminate the nature of the planet fs atmosphere and climate system, both for present day conditions as well as for conditions that existed billions of years ago. For present day conditions, Curiosity has a standard meteorology package that measures pressure, temperature, winds and humidity, plus a sensor the measures the UV flux. These data confirm what we learned from previous missions namely that today Mars is a cold, dry, and barren desert-like planet. For past conditions, however, wetter and probably warmer conditions are indicated. Curiosities cameras reveal gravel beds that must have formed by flowing rivers, and sedimentary deposits of layered sand and mudstones possibly associated with lakes. An ancient aqueous environment is further supported by the presence of sulfate veins coursing through some of the rocks in Yellowknife Bay where Curiosity is planning its first drilling activity. I will discuss these results and their implications in this lecture.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Particle classification by image analysis improves understanding of corn stover degradation mechanisms during deconstruction

Biomass feedstock heterogeneity is a principal roadblock to implementation of the biorefinery concept. Even within an identical cultivar of corn stover, different bales contain not only varying abundance moisture, ash, glucan, and other chemical compounds, but also varying abundance of tissue anatomies (e.g., leaf, husk, cob, or stalk). These different anatomical components not only differ in their response to pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis to glucose, but also vary in their mechanical and conveyance properties. Although this heterogeneous nature of corn stover feedstock has been identified as a challenge, a fundamental knowledge gap of how these tissues behave during biorefining processing remains. Here, we demonstrate the use of a commercial fiber image analyzer typically used for wood fiber characterization to monitor the particle size and shapes of non-woody feedstock during milling, pretreatment, and hydrolysis. Additionally, we present novel use of Gaussian process classification to distinguish bundle, parenchyma, and fiber particles to an accuracy of 96.4%. Quantitative probability distribution plots for characteristics such as length and roundness allow elucidation of particle morphology as pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis progress. In both stalk pith and stalk rind, particles peel into individual cells whose walls are subsequently fragmented during enzymatic hydrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A numerical study of Saturn's F-ring

The short term effects of 'shepherding' satellites is examined in the general case where all bodies move along eccentric orbits by analyzing the motion of a ring of particles as their orbits evolve under the gravitational perturbations of the shepherds. This computational approach makes ring evolution calculations extremely efficient numerically, and provides added insight into the nature of this two-body interaction. The procedure is analyzed and applied to several possible configurations of ring and shepherd orbits, emphasizing the F ring. If the F ring-to-satellite distance changes significantly due to eccentricities, the ring can break up into periodic clumps in an azimuthal domain which trails the satellite. This region may lag somewhat in longitude. The perturbations may cause the ring to vary significantly in a width, and can impart a significant, but probably time-variable, eccentricity to the ring.

Showalter, M. R.↗

Pervasive variability in the quiet solar transition region

Extreme UV spectroheliograms from an experimental time series are employed to investigate the nature of the quiet solar transition region with respect to temporal variability. A statistical treatment is developed to analyze the fraction of spatial elements that yield intensity variations significantly higher than the signal noise. The EUV intensity in every spatial resolution varies on a time scale of minutes by about 10-30 percent, and the fractional amplitude of the temporal variations is found to be nearly independent of mean intensity. The paper concludes that the quiet solar transition region is probably generated and modulated by small-scale magnetic activity, since the temporal variability in the transition region is spatially uniform and rather pervasive.

Rabin, Douglas↗

On Orbital Elements of Extrasolar Planetary Candidates and Spectroscopic Binaries

We estimate probability densities of orbital elements, periods, and eccentricities, for the population of extrasolar planetary candidates (EPC) and, separately, for the population of spectroscopic binaries (SB) with solar-type primaries. We construct empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) in order to infer probability distribution functions (PDFs) for orbital periods and eccentricities. We also derive a joint probability density for period-eccentricity pairs in each population. Comparison of respective distributions reveals that in all cases EPC and SB populations are, in the context of orbital elements, indistinguishable from each other to a high degree of statistical significance. Probability densities of orbital periods in both populations have P(exp -1) functional form, whereas the PDFs of eccentricities can he best characterized as a Gaussian with a mean of about 0.35 and standard deviation of about 0.2 turning into a flat distribution at small values of eccentricity. These remarkable similarities between EPC and SB must be taken into account by theories aimed at explaining the origin of extrasolar planetary candidates, and constitute an important clue us to their ultimate nature.

Stepinski, T. F.↗

Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Olivine clasts from mesosiderites and howardites - Clues to the nature of achondritic parent bodies

The compositional ranges of olivine clasts from mesosiderites and most clasts from howardites (FO90-55 and FO89-45 respectively) overlap. Only one clast in howardite Allan Hills A78006,9 (FO16) differs significantly. Differences in FeO/MnO in olivines from the two groups may be explained by different redox states of their source regions. Whether the two meteorite groups were derived from the same parent body is not clear, but the lack of Fe-rich eucritic clasts in mesosiderites together with the lack of tridymite-phosphate rich gabbros and basalts in howardites, suggests that different bodies are required since both meteorite groups are near-surface polymict breccias, which have probably sampled significant portions of their parent body surfaces.

Delaney, J. S.↗

Transient natural convection heat and mass transfer in crystal growth

A numerical analysis of transient combined heat and mass transfer across a rectangular cavity is performed by a numerical method based on the SIMPLE algorithm. The physical parameters are selected to represent a range of possible crystal growth in solutions. Numerical results are compared with available experimental data to confirm the accuracy of the results. Good qualitative agreements are obtained for the average mass transfer rate across the cavity. Also, qualitative agreements are observed for the global development of thermal and solute fields. It is found that the thermal and solute fields become highly oscillatory when the thermal and solute Grashof numbers are large. Oscillations are probably caused by a number of different instability mechanisms. By reducing the gravity some of these instabilities were made to disappear at the lower Grashof numbers. Transient temperature and solute distribution near the crystal growing surface are highly non-uniform at the higher Grashof numbers. These non-uniformities are less severe in the reduced gravity environments but still exist. The effects of convection on the rate of average mass transfer are more than one order of magnitude higher than those of conduction in the range of Grashof numbers studied. Dependency of mass transfer rate on the Grashof number indicates that the convection effects many not be negligible even in the microgravity environments for the range of parameters investigated.

Han, Samuel S.↗

Flavor fragmentation function factorization

A definition of partonic jet flavor that is both theoretically well-defined and experimentally robust would have profound implications for measurements and predictions especially for heavy flavor applications. Recently, a definition of jet flavor was introduced as the net flavor flowing along the direction of the Winner-Take-All axis of a jet which is soft safe to all orders, but not collinear safe. Here, we exploit the lack of collinear safety and propose a factorization theorem of perturbative flavor fragmentation functions that resum collinear divergences and describe the evolution of flavor from the short distance of jet production to the long distance at which hadronization occurs. Collinear flavor evolution is governed by a small modification of the DGLAP equations. We present a detailed all-orders analysis and identify exact relations that must hold amongst the various anomalous dimensions by probability conservation and the existence of fixed points of the renormalization group flow. We explicitly validate the factorization theorem at one-loop order, and demonstrate its consistency at two loops in particular flavor channels. Starting at two-loops, constraints on phase space imposed by flavor measurements potentially allow for non-trivial soft contributions, but we demonstrate that they are scaleless and so explicitly vanish, ensuring that soft particles are summed inclusively and all divergences are exclusively collinear in nature. This factorization theorem opens the door to precision calculations with identified flavor in the infrared.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Improved microgrid resiliency through distributionally robust optimization under a policy-mode framework

Critical energy infrastructure are constantly under stress due to the ever increasing disruptions caused by wildfires, hurricanes, other weather related extreme events and cyber-attacks. Hence it becomes important to make critical infrastructure resilient to threats from such cyber-physical events. However, such events are hard to predict and numerous in nature and type and it becomes infeasible to make a system resilient to every possible such cyber-physical event. Such an approach can make the system operation overly conservative and impractical to operate. Furthermore, distributions of such events are hard to predict and historical data available on such events can be very sparse, making the problem even harder to solve. To deal with these issues, in this paper we present a policy-mode framework that enumerates and predicts the probability of various cyber-physical events and then a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation that is robust to the sparsity of the available historical data. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on an islanded microgrid example: a modified IEEE 123-node feeder with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage. Simulations are carried to validate the resiliency metrics under the sampled disruption events.

Nazir, Mohammad Nawaf↗

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders

The SCALE code package offers multiple nuclear data libraries and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) methods supporting and derived from Monte Carlo (MC) transport. The CSAS and TSUNAMI-3D sequences use KENO MC, utilizing either continuous-energy (CE) cross sections or multigroup (MG) cross section libraries. TSUNAMI-3D has two CE calculational methods: the iterated fission probability (IFP) method, and the Contribution-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. Previous work has shown poor agreement between CLUTCH and confirmatory direct perturbation calculations in specific applications (e.g., fissionable and polyethylene reflectors). The HEU-MET-FAST-084 (HMF-084) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project evaluation consists of 27 cylindrical highly enriched uranium metal cores with 14 unique reflector materials of 0.5 and 1 in. thicknesses. Included in this list of reflector materials are natural uranium and polyethylene. This work utilized SCALE 6.2.4 models of the HMF-084 evaluation, with additional non-physical configurations to test both the MG bias and CLUTCH functionality across a variety of reflector material thicknesses. The evaluation’s use of concentric cylinders allowed for examination of several MG self-shielding methods: infinite homogenous, cylindrical, and spherical. The results indicate that the use of polyethylene reflectors with CLUTCH is not fundamentally impossible but sensitive to geometry. The poor performance of CLUTCH with fissionable reflectors was reaffirmed. The 2 in. and greater polyethylene-reflected calculations demonstrate the necessity of using the 302-group library for fast systems. The nickel MG bias was substantial, as discussed in a companion paper, as were cobalt and iron.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Flavor Fragmentation Function Factorization

A definition of partonic jet flavor that is both theoretically well-defined and experimentally robust would have profound implications for measurements and predictions especially for heavy flavor applications. Recently, a definition of jet flavor was introduced as the net flavor flowing along the direction of the Winner-Take-All axis of a jet which is soft safe to all orders, but not collinear safe. Here, we exploit the lack of collinear safety and propose a factorization theorem of perturbative flavor fragmentation functions that resum collinear divergences and describe the evolution of flavor from the short distance of jet production to the long distance at which hadronization occurs. Collinear flavor evolution is governed by a small modification of the DGLAP equations. We present a detailed all-orders analysis and identify exact relations that must hold amongst the various anomalous dimensions by probability conservation and the existence of fixed points of the renormalization group flow. We explicitly validate the factorization theorem at one-loop order, and demonstrate its consistency at two loops in particular flavor channels. Starting at two-loops, constraints on phase space imposed by flavor measurements potentially allow for non-trivial soft contributions, but we demonstrate that they are scaleless and so explicitly vanish, ensuring that soft particles are summed inclusively and all divergences are exclusively collinear in nature. This factorization theorem opens the door to precision calculations with identified flavor in the infrared.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

On the kinetics of volatile loss from chondrites

Data by Lipschutz and coworkers (1975, 1976, 1977) on thermal release of Tl, Bi, and In from primitive chondrites are reexamined to obtain information on the nature and activation energy (E) of release processes: desorption, volume diffusion, and decomposition of the host phase. For the Allende C3 chondrite, the main release for Bi and Tl between 400 and 700 C is shown to be apparently due to desorption of a surface layer, coupled with grain boundary diffusion as the slow step. Further, the main release of In above 600 C and the small tails of Bi and Tl between 700 and 1000 C are observed to represent probably volume diffusion. Results for Abee and other primitive meteorites were found to be essentially similar, except for a very abrupt 500 C release of Tl from Krymka (81%) and Bi from Tieschitz (70%). It is suggested that this release may represent decomposition of a thermolabile phase in a late condensate, such as organic matter or phyllosilicates.

Alaerts, L.↗

On the Response of a Nonlinear Structure to High Kurtosis Non-Gaussian Random Loadings

This paper is a follow-on to recent work by the authors in which the response and high-cycle fatigue of a nonlinear structure subject to non-Gaussian loadings was found to vary markedly depending on the nature of the loading. There it was found that a non-Gaussian loading having a steady rate of short-duration, high-excursion peaks produced essentially the same response as would have been incurred by a Gaussian loading. In contrast, a non-Gaussian loading having the same kurtosis, but with bursts of high-excursion peaks was found to elicit a much greater response. This work is meant to answer the question of when consideration of a loading probability distribution other than Gaussian is important. The approach entailed nonlinear numerical simulation of a beam structure under Gaussian and non-Gaussian random excitations. Whether the structure responded in a Gaussian or non-Gaussian manner was determined by adherence to, or violations of, the Central Limit Theorem. Over a practical range of damping, it was found that the linear response to a non-Gaussian loading was Gaussian when the period of the system impulse response is much greater than the rate of peaks in the loading. Lower damping reduced the kurtosis, but only when the linear response was non-Gaussian. In the nonlinear regime, the response was found to be non-Gaussian for all loadings. The effect of a spring-hardening type of nonlinearity was found to limit extreme values and thereby lower the kurtosis relative to the linear response regime. In this case, lower damping gave rise to greater nonlinearity, resulting in lower kurtosis than a higher level of damping.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

He II lambda-4686 in Eta Carinae: Collapse of the Wind-Wind Collision Region During Periastron Passage

The periodic spectroscopic events in Eta Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events we performed a dense monitoring of Eta Carinae with 5 Southern telescopes during the 2009 low excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II lambda-4686 emission line (L approx 310 solar L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the wind-wind collision (WWC) region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II lambda-4686 light-curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II lambda-4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

Teodoro, M.↗

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗