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At least 793 records · Page 44

The Impact and Estimation of Uncertainty Correlation for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Ocean Color

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.

PACE↗

Dynamic Adjustment of Simulation Parameters for Efficient Vehicle Prognostics

Model-based diagnostics and prognostics rely on state estimation and uncertainty management algorithms to produce useful information for system operators and maintainers. This information enables more informed operational decisions, condition-based maintenance, and overall mission safety assurance. Typically, uncertainty is associated with vehicle state-of-health estimation and prediction results because of modeling errors, internal or external sources of noise, and sensor inaccuracy. Probabilistic uncertainty management methods including Sequential Monte Carlo simulation are commonly used to reason about state-of-health estimates and predictions in the presence of these sources of uncertainty. However, such algorithms can be computationally expensive as they require a very large number of samples to obtain a sufficiently accurate quantification of the end of life probability distribution. As a result, highly mobile autonomous systems that leverage the prognostic results for mission-level replanning are often constrained in their processing capability because of these computationally expensive simulation approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate algorithmic methods for dynamically adjusting simulation time step as well as number of samples to achieve highly efficient prognostic results while maintaining results accuracy. Results obtained from simulated flight experiments of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle are presented to verify the efficacy of such algorithms.

Prognostics↗

Atmospheric Multiple Scattering Effects on GLAS Altimetry: Calculations of Single Pulse Bias - Part 1

Estimates of the effect of pulse stretching on satellite laser altimetry in particular the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), by cloud multiple scattering were made from an analytical method and from Monte Carlo calculations. The path delay of the return pulse was found to be largest for low-level clouds with particle radii (3-20 microns). The magnitude of the path delay was affected by several factors including cloud height, cloud optical depth, cloud particle size, particle shape, and receiver field of view. Polar aerosol and Rayleigh scattering usually added less than 1 cm to the overall path delay. Path delay estimates for all cloud conditions would be less if a simple Gaussian fit of the return pulse peak were used to measure the pulse's centroid. However, care must be taken in determining the centroid as factors such as pulse width, surface slope and the fitting method used will affect the estimate. A planned application for laser altimetry is high precision monitoring of the height change of polar ice sheets. In the absence of a correction algorithm, the required GLAS altimetry accuracies will not be achieved unless atmospheric channel information is used to remove profiles that are likely to be heavily contaminated by multiple scattering.

Duda, David P.↗

Comparison of Burnett, super-Burnett and Monte Carlo solutions for hypersonic shock structure

The continuum Navier-Stokes, Burnett, and super-Burnett equations are solved for one-dimensional shock structures in various monoatomic gases. Solutions for a hard sphere gas, argon, and a Maxwellian gas from Mach 1.3 to Mach 50 are obtained. A numerical method utilizing the complete time-dependent continuum equations and obtaining the steady-state shock structure by allowing the system to relax from arbitrary initial conditions is employed. Shock density, velocity, temperature, and entropy profiles are also obtained using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method, and these results are used as bases for comparison for continuum solution profiles. It is shown that the Burnett equations yield shock structure solutions in much closer agreement to both Monte Carlo and experimental results than do the Navier-Stokes equations. Solutions to the super-Burnett equations with coefficients as presently derived, however, are considered to be inferior to those of the Burnett equations.

Fiscko, Kurt A.↗

Monte Carlo solution of Boltzmann equation for a simple model of highly nonequilibrium diatomic gases - Translational rotational energy relaxation

Theoretical results pertaining to internally excited translational-rotational energy relaxation in a spatially uniform diatomic gas far removed from solid boundaries are obtained by solving the Boltzmann equation by means of the Monte Carlo direct simulation method. The analysis is based on calculations involving three different types of initial conditions: equilibrium, nonequilibrium-equipartition (i.e., equipartition is satisfied, but the distributions are perturbed), and nonequilibrium-nonequipartition (i.e., both equipartition and the distributions are perturbed). Results of monatomic-gas simulations are also included to facilitate comparisons with the coupled translational-rotational relaxation simulations, and some simulations for a normal shock-wave structure are briefly examined. The results show that: (1) single-step transitions are the significant mechanisms of intermodal energy transfer; (2) translational-rotational transitions are coupled most efficiently for low-lying states of rotationally excited molecules and least efficiently for highly rotationally excited molecules; and (3) relaxation occurs via a successive set of distributions that are not Maxwell-Boltzmann (nonlocal Maxwellian).

Yoshikawa, K. K.↗

Flow resolution and domain of influence in rarefied hypersonic blunt-body flows

The study assesses the effects of the upstream domain size and grid resolution upon flow properties and body aerodynamics computed for rarefied flows over cold blunt bodies with a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) particle method. Empirical correlations are suggested for aerodynamic coefficients for two-dimensional flows past a perpendicular flat plate. Free-stream parameters which were varied in the study include the Mach number, Knudsen number, surface temperature, and intermolecular potential. Insufficient grid resolution leads to overprediction of aerodynamic heating and forces in the DSMC method. Solution accuracy correlates well with the Reynolds number defined at the wall temperature and the stagnation mean free path relative to the cell dimension. Insufficient upstream domain size in the DSMC method leads to overprediction of heating and drag. Errors in aerodynamic coefficients correlate well with the distance ahead of the body where flow temperature reaches half of its peak value. Simulation of a hard-sphere gas is more sensitive to grid resolution, while simulation of a Maxwell gas is more sensitive to upstream domain size.

Haas, Brian L.↗

Simulated rarefied aerodynamics of the Magellan spacecraft during aerobraking

Aerodynamic loads upon the Magellan spacecraft during aerobraking through the atmosphere of Venus are computed at off-design attitudes with a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) particle method. Simulated rarefied flows at nominal altitudes near 140 km and an entry speed of 8.6 km/s were compared to simulated and analytic free molecular results. Aerodynamic moments, forces, and heating for rarefied entry at all attitudes were 7-10 percent below free molecular results. All moments acted to restore the vehicle to its nominal zero-pitch, zero-yaw attitude. Suggested canting of the solar panels is an innovative configuration to assess gas-surface interaction during aerobraking. The resulting roll torques about the central body-axis as predicted in rarefied flow simulations were nearly twice that predicted for free molecular flow, although differences became less distinct for thermal accommodation coefficients well below unity. Roll torques increased dramatically with reduced accommodation coefficients employed in the simulation. In the DSMC code, periodic free-molecule boundary conditions and a coarse computational grid and body resolution served to minimize the simulation size and cost while retaining solution validity.

Haas, Brian L.↗

Particle kinetic simulation of high altitude hypervelocity flight

In this grant period, the focus has been on enhancement and application of the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) particle method for computing hypersonic flows of re-entry vehicles. Enhancement efforts dealt with modeling gas-gas interactions for thermal non-equilibrium relaxation processes and gas-surface interactions for prediction of vehicle surface temperatures. Both are important for application to problems of engineering interest. The code was employed in a parametric study to improve future applications, and in simulations of aeropass maneuvers in support of the Magellan mission. Detailed comparisons between continuum models for internal energy relaxation and DSMC models reveals that several discrepancies exist. These include definitions of relaxation parameters and the methodologies for implementing them in DSMC codes. These issues were clarified and all differences were rectified in a paper (Appendix A) submitted to Physics of Fluids A, featuring several key figures in the DSMC community as co-authors and B. Haas as first author. This material will be presented at the Fluid Dynamics meeting of the American Physical Society on November 21, 1993. The aerodynamics of space vehicles in highly rarefied flows are very sensitive to the vehicle surface temperatures. Rather than require prescribed temperature estimates for spacecraft as is typically done in DSMC methods, a new technique was developed which couples the dynamic surface heat transfer characteristics into the DSMC flow simulation code to compute surface temperatures directly. This model, when applied to thin planar bodies such as solar panels, was described in AIAA Paper No. 93-2765 (Appendix B) and was presented at the Thermophysics Conference in July 1993. The paper has been submitted to the Journal of Thermophysics and Heat Transfer. Application of the DSMC method to problems of practical interest requires a trade off between solution accuracy and computational expense and limitations. A parametric study was performed and reported in AIAA Paper No. 93-2806 (Appendix C) which assessed the accuracy penalties associated with simulations of varying grid resolution and flow domain size. The paper was also presented at the Thermophysics Conference and will be submitted to the journal shortly. Finally, the DSMC code was employed to assess the pitch, yaw, and roll aerodynamics of the Magellan spacecraft during entry into the Venus atmosphere at off-design attitudes. This work was in support of the Magellan aerobraking maneuver of May 25-Aug. 3, 1993. Furthermore, analysis of the roll characteristics of the configuration with canted solar panels was performed in support of the proposed 'Windmill' experiment. Results were reported in AIAA Paper No. 93-3676 (Appendix D) presented at the Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference in August 1993, and were submitted to Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.

Haas, Brian L.↗

CGRO Guest Investigator Program

The following are highlights from the research supported by this grant: (1) Theory of gamma-ray blazars: We studied the theory of gamma-ray blazars, being among the first investigators to propose that the GeV emission arises from Comptonization of diffuse radiation surrounding the jet, rather than from the synchrotron-self-Compton mechanism. In related work, we uncovered possible connections between the mechanisms of gamma-ray blazars and those of intraday radio variability, and have conducted a general study of the role of Compton radiation drag on the dynamics of relativistic jets. (2) A Nonlinear Monte Carlo code for gamma-ray spectrum formation: We developed, tested, and applied the first Nonlinear Monte Carlo (NLMC) code for simulating gamma-ray production and transfer under much more general (and realistic) conditions than are accessible with other techniques. The present version of the code is designed to simulate conditions thought to be present in active galactic nuclei and certain types of X-ray binaries, and includes the physics needed to model thermal and nonthermal electron-positron pair cascades. Unlike traditional Monte-Carlo techniques, our method can accurately handle highly non-linear systems in which the radiation and particle backgrounds must be determined self-consistently and in which the particle energies span many orders of magnitude. Unlike models based on kinetic equations, our code can handle arbitrary source geometries and relativistic kinematic effects In its first important application following testing, we showed that popular semi-analytic accretion disk corona models for Seyfert spectra are seriously in error, and demonstrated how the spectra can be simulated if the disk is sparsely covered by localized 'flares'.

Begelman, Mitchell C.↗

The Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Mission, the Mars Surveyor 2001 (MS01) Mission, and the Planetary Instrument Definition and Development Program (PIDDP)

The NEAR Mission was launched on February 17, 1996 for a three year cruise to the asteroid 433 Eros. During October, November, and December 1998 cruise measurements with the gamma-ray spectrometer were made at three different escape-window-width settings. These were done in order to understand how the count rate and peak width change as the window width settings change. Analysis of these spectra was completed using the latest version of the spectral analysis program, RobWin. Results as a function of energy were combined with the results from the Schlumberger-Doll Research experiments (described below). Laboratory measurements were needed to confirm efficiency calculations above 6 MeV and to understand the relationship between the full energy peak areas and the areas of the first and second escape peaks as a function of the escape peak widths. A week of measurements was made at Schlumberger-Doll Research using their 14-MeV pulsed neutron generator and large soil samples. Data were collected after adding iron and nickel to the sample to increase the emission of high-energy lines. Approximately 24 hours of data were accumulated at each of three escape peak window widths. These data were analyzed with RobWin. Combining results from the cruise measurements and the laboratory measurements indicated that both data sets had similar energy dependence and that this energy dependence was different from that obtained using standard Monte Carlo calculations. Alternate methods of simulating the response of the detector to changes in the escape window widths are being investigated.

Source record↗

Cloud and Aerosol Multiple Scattering Effects for the GLAS Atmospheric and Surface Measurements

Multiple scattering by clouds and aerosol is a significant factor for space borne laser radar measurements. Principally forward scattering within the receiver field of view increases the observed signal magnitude and caused pulse stretching. For the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System multiple scattering effects both the retrieval of the optical properties of clouds and aerosol and the surface altitude measurements. The effects have been extensively modeled by Monte Carlo and analytic methods. The results are summarized and approaches to minimize errors associated with multiple scattering are presented..

Spinhirne, James D.↗

Analytic Guided-Search Model of Human Performance Accuracy in Target- Localization Search Tasks

Current models of human visual search have extended the traditional serial/parallel search dichotomy. Two successful models for predicting human visual search are the Guided Search model and the Signal Detection Theory model. Although these models are inherently different, it has been difficult to compare them because the Guided Search model is designed to predict response time, while Signal Detection Theory models are designed to predict performance accuracy. Moreover, current implementations of the Guided Search model require the use of Monte-Carlo simulations, a method that makes fitting the model's performance quantitatively to human data more computationally time consuming. We have extended the Guided Search model to predict human accuracy in target-localization search tasks. We have also developed analytic expressions that simplify simulation of the model to the evaluation of a small set of equations using only three free parameters. This new implementation and extension of the Guided Search model will enable direct quantitative comparisons with human performance in target-localization search experiments and with the predictions of Signal Detection Theory and other search accuracy models.

Eckstein, Miguel P.↗

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis of Turbomachinery Components

A probabilistic approach is described for aeroelastic analysis of turbomachinery blade rows. Blade rows with subsonic flow and blade rows with supersonic flow with subsonic leading edge are considered. To demonstrate the probabilistic approach, the flutter frequency, damping and forced response of a blade row representing a compressor geometry is considered. The analysis accounts for uncertainties in structural and aerodynamic design variables. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF) and sensitivity factors. For subsonic flow cascade, comparisons are also made with different probabilistic distributions, probabilistic methods, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The approach shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess the effect of uncertainties in design variables on the aeroelastic instabilities and response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗

Pulsar Emission Geometry and Accelerating Field Strength

The high-quality Fermi LAT observations of gamma-ray pulsars have opened a new window to understanding the generation mechanisms of high-energy emission from these systems, The high statistics allow for careful modeling of the light curve features as well as for phase resolved spectral modeling. We modeled the LAT light curves of the Vela and CTA I pulsars with simulated high-energy light curves generated from geometrical representations of the outer gap and slot gap emission models. within the vacuum retarded dipole and force-free fields. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method was used to explore the phase space of the magnetic inclination angle, viewing angle. maximum emission radius, and gap width. We also used the measured spectral cutoff energies to estimate the accelerating parallel electric field dependence on radius. under the assumptions that the high-energy emission is dominated by curvature radiation and the geometry (radius of emission and minimum radius of curvature of the magnetic field lines) is determined by the best fitting light curves for each model. We find that light curves from the vacuum field more closely match the observed light curves and multiwavelength constraints, and that the calculated parallel electric field can place additional constraints on the emission geometry

DeCesar, Megan E.↗

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗