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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Integrated Aeroservoelastic Optimization: Status and Direction

The interactions of lightweight flexible airframe structures, steady and unsteady aerodynamics, and wide-bandwidth active controls on modern airplanes lead to considerable multidisciplinary design challenges. More than 25 years of mathematical and numerical methods' development, numerous basic research studies, simulations and wind-tunnel tests of simple models, wind-tunnel tests of complex models of real airplanes, as well as flight tests of actively controlled airplanes, have all contributed to the accumulation of a substantial body of knowledge in the area of aeroservoelasticity. A number of analysis codes, with the capabilities to model real airplane systems under the assumptions of linearity, have been developed. Many tests have been conducted, and results were correlated with analytical predictions. A selective sample of references covering aeroservoelastic testing programs from the 1960s to the early 1980s, as well as more recent wind-tunnel test programs of real or realistic configurations, are included in the References section of this paper. An examination of references 20-29 will reveal that in the course of development (or later modification), of almost every modern airplane with a high authority active control system, there arose a need to face aeroservoelastic problems and aeroservoelastic design challenges.

Livne, Eli↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of Viking infrared thermal mapping data of Mars. The effects of non-ideal surfaces on the derived thermal properties of Mars

The thermal interia of the surface of Mars varies spatially by a factor of eight. This is attributable to changes in the average particle size of the fine material, the surface elevation, the atmospheric opacity due to dust, and the fraction of the surface covered by rocks and fine material. The effects of these non-ideal properties on the surface temperatures and derived thermal inertias are modeled, along with the the effects of slopes, CO2 condensed onto the surface, and layering of fine material upon solid rock. The non-ideal models are capable of producing thermal behavior similar to that observed by the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper, including a morning delay in the post-dawn temperature rise and an enhanced cooling in the afternoon relative to any ideal, homogeneous model. The enhanced afternoon cooling observed at the Viking-1 landing site is reproduced by the non-ideal models while that atop Arsia Mons volcano is not, but may be attributed to the observing geometry.

Muhleman, D. O.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulating Observed Ozone Loss in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Ozone amounts observed at high Northern latitudes in late winter and early spring have been relatively very low in four of the last six years. On the face of it, this decline appears similar to that observed in the Antarctic in the mid-1980s in spite of the fact that the abundance of stratospheric chlorine is currently steady or decreasing. In order to predict the extent to which this change represents a trend, and to understand what combination of factors produces the low ozone, we need to accurately simulate these observations with models. In this presentation, we focus on the winter of 1999-2000, which exhibited some of the lowest ozone ever recorded in the Northern hemisphere. It also contained the largest-ever assembled set of atmospheric measurements and modeling activities in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (SOLVE/THESEO). We use SOLVE/THESEO observations in comparison with the Goddard 3-D global model of stratospheric chemistry and transport to explore the model's capability to simulate the evolution of ozone and other species through the winter. We will discuss advective transport and mixing, chlorine activation, and denitrification, which are key processes to accurately simulating wintertime ozone. Preliminary results show that, although the model tracer transport and chlorine activation compare relatively well with observations, the magnitude of observed ozone loss is difficult to achieve in the model. Calculated ozone loss is sensitive to denitrification, which presents a major challenge to parameterization in a global model. Simulation requirements and uncertainties will be evaluated.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

SMA Hybrid Composites for Dynamic Response Abatement Applications

A recently developed constitutive model and a finite element formulation for predicting the thermomechanical response of Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures is briefly described. Attention is focused on constrained recovery behavior in this study, but the constitutive formulation is also capable of modeling restrained or free recovery. Numerical results are shown for glass/epoxy panel specimens with embedded Nitinol actuators subjected to thermal and acoustic loads. Control of thermal buckling, random response, sonic fatigue, and transmission loss are demonstrated and compared to conventional approaches including addition of conventional composite layers and a constrained layer damping treatment. Embedded SMA actuators are shown to be significantly more effective in dynamic response abatement applications than the conventional approaches and are attractive for combination with other passive and/or active approaches.

Turner, Travis L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Iterative Atmospheric Correction Scheme and the Polarization Color of Alpine Snow

Characterization of the Earth's surface is crucial to remote sensing, both to map geomorphological features and because subtracting this signal is essential during retrievals of the atmospheric constituents located between the surface and the sensor. Current operational algorithms model the surface total reflectance through a weighted linear combination of a few geometry-dependent kernels, each devised to describe a particular scattering mechanism. The information content of these measurements is overwhelmed by that of instruments with polarization capabilities: proposed models in this case are based on the Fresnel reflectance of an isotropic distribution of facets. Because of its remarkable lack of spectral contrast, the polarized reflectance of land surfaces in the shortwave infrared spectral region, where atmospheric scattering is minimal, can be used to model the surface also at shorter wavelengths, where aerosol retrievals are attempted based on well-established scattering theories. In radiative transfer simulations, straightforward separation of the surface and atmospheric contributions is not possible without approximations because of the coupling introduced by multiple reflections. Within a general inversion framework, the problem can be eliminated by linearizing the radiative transfer calculation, and making the Jacobian (i.e., the derivative expressing the sensitivity of the reflectance with respect to model parameters) available at output. We present a general methodology based on a Gauss-Newton iterative search, which automates this procedure and eliminates de facto the need of an ad hoc atmospheric correction. In this case study we analyze the color variations in the polarized reflectance measured by the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Research Scanning Polarimeter during a survey of late-season snowfields in the High Sierra. This insofar unique dataset presents challenges linked to the rugged topography associated with the alpine environment and a likely high water content due to melting. The analysis benefits from ancillary information provided by the NASA Langley High Spectral Resolution Lidar deployed on the same aircraft. The results obtained from the iterative scheme are contrasted against the surface polarized reflectance obtained ignoring multiple reflections, via the simplistic subtraction of the atmospheric scattering contribution. Finally, the retrieved reflectance is modeled after the scattering properties of a dense collection of ice crystals at the surface. Confirming that the polarized reflectance of snow is spectrally flat would allow to extend the techniques already in use for polarimetric retrievals of aerosol properties over land to the large portion of snow-covered pixels plaguing orbital and suborbital observations.

Polarized BRDF↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗
NASA NTRS1952

Flight Characteristics of a 1/4-Scale Model of the XFV-1 Airplane (TED No. NACA DE-378)

A l/4-scale dynamically similar model of the XFV-1 airplane has been flown in the Ames 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel, using the trailing flight-cable technique. This investigation was devoted to establishing the flight characteristics of the model in forward flight from hovering to wing stall, and in yawed flight (wing span alined with the relative wind) from hovering to the maximum speed at which controlled flight could be maintained. Landings, take-offs, and hovering characteristics in flights close to the ground were also investigated.. Since the remote control system for the model was rather complicated and provided artificial damping about the pitch, roll, and yaw axes, sufficient data from the control-system calibration tests are included in this report to specify the performance of the control system in relation to both the model flight tests and the design of an automatic control system for the full-scale airplane. The model in hovering flight appeared to be neutrally stable. The response of the model to the controls was very rapid, and it was always necessary to provide some amount of artificial damping to maintain control. The model could be landed with little difficulty by hovering approximately a foot above the floor and then cutting the power. Take-offs were more difficult to perform, primarily because the rate of change in power to the model motors was limited by the characteristics of the available power source. The model was,capable of controlled yawed flight at translational velocities up to and including 20 feet per second. The effectiveness of the controls decreased with increasing speed, however, and at 25 fps control in pitch, and probably roll, was lost completely. The model was flown in controlled forward flight from hovering up to 70 fps. During these flights the model appeared to be more difficult to control in yaw than it was in pitch or roll. The flights of the model were recorded by motion picture cameras. These motion pictures are available on loan from NACA Headquarters as a film supplement to this report.

Kelly, Mark W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Induced nucleation of carbon dust in red giant stars

This study quantitatively tests the proposed model of induced nucleation of carbonaceous grains in carbon-rich red giant stars. Induced nucleation is the process of grain growth initiated by the presence of reactive surfaces provided by seed particles. The numerical study was performed using a deailed chemical kinetic model of carbon deposition, grain coagulation, and homogeneous nucleation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The model uses a method of moments to keep track of developing grain population in the forming dust shell. We test the efficiency of grain formation for large ranges of dust shell parameters typical for carbon stars. Our model is capable of producing a range of optically thick and thin dust shells in carbon stars. Results are in accord with (IRAS) spectral classes of carbon stars. The resulting composite grains produced are consistent with those recently found in ancient meteorites. This model also provides a realistic explanation for high abundances of (PAHs) in the interstellar medium and some planetary nebulae.

Cadwell, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Dynamics of PVT Growth: ZnSe

An unsteady model for the simulation of PVT growth process has been developed and applied to growth of ZnSe. The model is capable of tracking the unsteady aspects of the growth process caused by, for example, changes in the system temperature associated with growth, source-depletion, translation of the charge, out-gassing at high temperatures, as well as changes in the source composition during growth. The model predicts the evolution of growth interface morphology as well as the shape of source-gas interface. Thermo-fluid transport in the gas phase is handled by a Low-Mach number unsteady compressible flow formulation. Heat transfer in the crystal, source, and the quartz housing is calculated by the Monte-Carlo technique to capture the variations in the spectral transmittance and index of refraction of the participating media. Simulation results are presented for the growth interface morphology, thermal stresses in the crystal, and growth rate at various stages of growth. The influence of impurity gases on the growth process is also discussed, The simulation results are compared with the experimental observations. The capabilities of the developed tool in addressing other PVT growth processes such as SiC are discussed.

Worlikar, A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Transport of cosmic ray nuclei in various materials

Cosmic-ray heavy ions have become a concern in space radiation effects analyses. Heavy ions rapidly deposit energy and create dense ionization trails as they traverse materials. Collection of the free charge disrupts the operation of microelectronic circuits. This effect, called the single-event upset, can cause a loss of digital data. Passage of high linear energy transfer particles through the eyes has been observed by Apollo astronauts. These heavy ions have great radiobiological effectiveness and are the primary risk factor for leukemia induction on a manned Mars mission. Models of the transport of heavy cosmic-ray nuclei through materials depend heavily on our understanding of the cosmic-ray environment, nuclear spallation cross sections, and computer transport codes. Our group has initiated and pursued the development of a full capability for modeling these transport processes. A recent review of this ongoing effort is presented in Ref. 5. In this paper, we discuss transport methods and present new results comparing the attenuation of cosmic rays in various materials.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS1974

Results of investigations on an 0.015-scale configuration 140A/B space shuttle vehicle orbiter model (49-0) in the NASA/Langley Research Center 8-foot transonic pressure tunnel (OA25)

Aerodynamic force and moment tests were conducted on an 0.015-scale space shuttle vehicle configuration 140A/B model (49-0) in a transonic pressure tunnel. The test was carried out at Mach numbers 0.35, 0.60, 0.80, 0.90, 0.98, and 1.20, and at Reynolds numbers ranging from 1.90 million per foot to 3.97 million per foot, depending on tunnel total pressure capability and model structural limits. The model attitude was varied in angle-of-attack from minus 2 deg to +22 deg at 0 deg and 5 deg angles of yaw, and in angle-of-sidelip from minus 5 to +10 deg at 0 deg, 7.5 deg, and 15 deg angles of pitch. The purpose of this test was to establish and verify longitudinal and lateral-directional characteristics of the 140A/B Configuration Orbiter and to determine the effects of surface deflections on vehicle performance, stability, and control.

Nichols, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Analysis of the progressive failure of brittle matrix composites

This report investigates two of the most common modes of localized failures, namely, periodic fiber-bridged matrix cracks and transverse matrix cracks. A modification of Daniels' bundle theory is combined with Weibull's weakest link theory to model the statistical distribution of the periodic matrix cracking strength for an individual layer. Results of the model predictions are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Extensions to the model are made to account for possible imperfections within the layer (i.e., nonuniform fiber lengths, irregular crack spacing, and degraded in-situ fiber properties), and the results of these studies are presented. A generalized shear-lag analysis is derived which is capable of modeling the development of transverse matrix cracks in material systems having a general multilayer configuration and under states of full in-plane load. A method for computing the effective elastic properties for the damaged layer at the global level is detailed based upon the solution for the effects of the damage at the local level. This methodology is general in nature and is therefore also applicable to (0(sub m)/90(sub n))(sub s) systems. The characteristic stress-strain response for more general cases is shown to be qualitatively correct (experimental data is not available for a quantitative evaluation), and the damage evolution is recorded in terms of the matrix crack density as a function of the applied strain. Probabilistic effects are introduced to account for the statistical nature of the material strengths, thus allowing cumulative distribution curves for the probability of failure to be generated for each of the example laminates. Additionally, Oh and Finney's classic work on fracture location in brittle materials is extended and combined with the shear-lag analysis. The result is an analytical form for predicting the probability density function for the location of the next transverse crack occurrence within a crack bounded region. The results of this study verified qualitatively the validity of assuming a uniform crack spacing (as was done in the shear-lag model).

Thomas, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Validation of a Pressure-Based Combustion Simulation Tool Using a Single Element Injector Test Problem

The traditional design and analysis practice for advanced propulsion systems, particularly chemical rocket engines, relies heavily on expensive full-scale prototype development and testing. Over the past decade, use of high-fidelity analysis and design tools such as CFD early in the product development cycle has been identified as one way to alleviate testing costs and to develop these devices better, faster and cheaper. Increased emphasis is being placed on developing and applying CFD models to simulate the flow field environments and performance of advanced propulsion systems. This necessitates the development of next generation computational tools which can be used effectively and reliably in a design environment by non-CFD specialists. A computational tool, called Loci-STREAM is being developed for this purpose. It is a pressure-based, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver for generalized unstructured grids, which is designed to handle all-speed flows (incompressible to hypersonic) and is particularly suitable for solving multi-species flow in fixed-frame combustion devices. Loci-STREAM integrates proven numerical methods for generalized grids and state-of-the-art physical models in a novel rule-based programming framework called Loci which allows: (a) seamless integration of multidisciplinary physics in a unified manner, and (b) automatic handling of massively parallel computing. The objective of the ongoing work is to develop a robust simulation capability for combustion problems in rocket engines. As an initial step towards validating this capability, a model problem is investigated in the present study which involves a gaseous oxygen/gaseous hydrogen (GO2/GH2) shear coaxial single element injector, for which experimental data are available. The sensitivity of the computed solutions to grid density, grid distribution, different turbulence models, and different near-wall treatments is investigated. A refined grid, which is clustered in the vicinity of the solid walls as well as the flame, is used to obtain a steady state solution which may be considered as the best solution attainable with the steady-state RANS methodology. From a design point of view, quick turnaround times are desirable; with this in mind, coarser grids are also employed and the resulting solutions are evaluated with respect to the fine grid solution.

Thakur, Siddarth↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mechanical Behavior and Analytical Modeling of Melt-Infiltrated SiC/SiC Woven Composite

The desirable properties in ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), such as high temperature strength, corrosion resistance, high toughness, low density, or good creep resistance have led to increased use of CMCs in high-speed engine structural components and structures that operate in extreme temperature and hostile aero-thermo-chemical environments. Ceramic matrix composites have been chosen for turbine material in the design of 21st century civil propulsion systems to achieve high fuel economy, improved reliability, extended life, and reduced cost. Most commercial CMCs are manufactured using a chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) process. However, a lower cost fabrication known as melt-infiltration process is also providing CMCs marked for use in hot sections of high-speed civil transports. Limited samples of a SiC/SiC melt-infiltrated woven composites are being investigated at room and elevated temperature below and above matrix cracking. These samples show graceful failure and toughness at room temperature with a reduction in strength and modulus at elevated temperatures. A generic finite element model is also being developed to predict monotonic and cyclic loading behavior of the woven composite. Use of the initial test data from the woven composite is being used for the development of the analytical model. This model is the first of a iterative process leading towards the development the model's capability to predict behavior at room and elevated temperature for monotonic and cyclic loading. The purpose of this paper is to report on the material and mechanical findings of the SiC/SiC melt-infiltrated woven composite and progress on the development of the finite element model.

Lang, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Advancements in the PATO Material Response Code

Introduction: Predicting the complicated multiphysics phenomena during atmospheric entry requires high-fidelity modeling tools to refine estimates of mission risks during entry. To this end, new capabilities are being added to the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO). PATO is an open-source software for Computational Material Response (CMR) of reactive porous materials submitted to high-temperature environments. The objective of this work is to highlight current efforts to add to and improve upon the modeling capabilities of PATO. These include efforts to loosely couple PATO with other discipline specialized codes including hypersonic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to assess the interaction effects between pyrolysis gas blowing and the boundary layer, and Computational Solid Mechanics (CSM), to address modeling of mechanical erosion. Other refinements include surface phenomena modeling capabilities to address the effects of silicone-based coatings applied to the TPS during flight preparation, and a unified multiphase solver for a mixed porous-material and plain-fluid domain. Coupling CMR with CFD (CMR/CFD): A loose coupling between PATO and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) CFD code has been achieved by making use of a blowing boundary condition at the heatshield surface available in DPLR. Starting with heat flux estimates with no pyrolysis gas blowing at the surface, blowing gases are computed by the CMR and passed to the CFD such that aerothermal properties of the environment can be recomputed for a new CMR computation. This leads to an iterative process which is supplemented with an estimate of the radiative heat flux using the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) program. The entire iterative process is illustrated in Figure 1. This coupling strategy has been utilized in computing the MSL material response. The goal is to compare the coupled CMR/CFD results with material response results obtained using traditional blowing corrections. Coupling CMS with CMR: A mechanical erosion model is currently being implemented in PATO to account for the additional mass removal induced by high shear conditions. The modeling process at each timestep consists of updating the mechanical properties as a function of temperature and computing the stress tensor and displacement fields of the material. Then, a failure criteria model determines the regions in which the stress exceeds the ultimate strength values resulting in mesh movement to account for mass removal. This model allows the material response simulation to compute the recession due to both oxidation and shear-induced erosion. The model is demonstrated by computing material response of sphere-cone arc jet samples. Surface Modeling Capabilities: NuSil, a silicone-based coating, was sprayed onto the MSL and Mars 2020 heatshields to mitigate shedding of phenolic dust. To better understand the effects of the NuSil coating on the material response, a novel model has been implemented in PATO. In this model, the equilibrium of the charred NuSil surface is modeled as pure silica, and a constant offset, inspired by the classical spallation model, is added to the the char blowing rate and wall enthalpy to reproduce HyMETS experimental results. The model has also been used to estimate the 3D material response of the MSL heatshield. Unified Solver: In addition to the iterative loose coupling approach mentioned above, a multiphase unified solver is being developed to couple the environment (plain-fluid phase) and the porous-material phase. The solver is based on the volume averaged conservation of mass, momentum, and energy for the macroscale with closure models which include microscale effects through effective physicochemical properties. The unified solver has been used to compute flow through a porous plug and solve the Beavers and Joseph problem. Since the strong coupling between phases is inherent to this solver, modeling assumptions present in other coupling methods of material response are mitigated. This strategy also makes it feasible to capture the competition between surface and volume ablation in the same computational domain, which is usually not possible with other coupling approaches.

Material Response↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of visual estimation of system state from arbitrary displays

A method is presented for implementing the state estimator of the manual control model when the system output is a visual display of arbitrary form; that is, the display may be pictorial, including real world, or made up of dials and pointers. The method is used to provide error criteria for a look-point controller that appears to be capable of modeling human scanning behavior. This model, if combined with a model of the control process, should be useful in predicting effects of changes in displays on performance of flight tasks.

Gainer, P. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems: Towards a Multi-planet Model for Reproducing the Planet Radius Valley and Intra-system Size Similarity

Multi-planet systems provide crucial insights into the architectures and correlations within planetary systems, which in turn offer clues into their formation and evolution histories. Through the thousands of exoplanet candidates that it discovered, NASA's Kepler mission revealed that systems with multiple transiting planets are common. We describe a new model for inferring the exoplanet population observed by Kepler, which combines a semi-parametric description of planetary systems with a prescription for envelope mass-loss due to photoevaporation. This new model is a"hybrid" of the maximum AMD (angular momentum deficit) model in which the orbital excitations of the planets are drawn by distributing the system's critical AMD (He et al. 2020), and a photoevaporation model for sculpting the observed radius valley (Neil & Rogers 2020). This is an update to the SysSim suite of exoplanet population models derived from forward modeling the Kepler detection pipeline. The hybrid model is constrained by the observed statistics of multi-transiting systems, including additional constraints from the distribution of planet radii and their intra-system size patterns. This model is capable of producing a planet radius valley as well as a preference for planet size similarity. However, we find that the Kepler catalog exhibits features that are even more significant (i.e., it has a deeper observed radius valley and stronger size similarity) than the best-fit model. We use this model to infer the intrinsic planet radius valley as well as the distribution of primordial planet masses and core masses.

kepler↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗