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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

CHROTRAN: a mathematical and computational model for in situ heavy metal remediation in heterogeneous aquifers

Groundwater contamination by heavy metals is a critical environmental problem for which in situ remediation is frequently the only viable treatment option. For such interventions, a three-dimensional reactive transport model of relevant biogeochemical processes is invaluable. To this end, we developed a model, CHROTRAN, for in situ treatment, which includes full dynamics for five species: a heavy metal to be remediated, an electron donor, biomass, a nontoxic conservative bio-inhibitor, and a biocide. Direct abiotic reduction by donor-metal interaction as well as donor-driven biomass growth and bio-reduction are modeled, along with crucial processes such as donor sorption, bio-fouling and biomass death. Our software implementation handles heterogeneous flow fields, arbitrarily many chemical species and amendment injection points, and features full coupling between flow and reactive transport. We describe installation and usage and present two example simulations demonstrating its unique capabilities. One simulation suggests an unorthodox approach to remediation of Cr(VI) contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Symbolic LTL Compilation for Model Checking: Extended Abstract

In Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checking, we check LTL formulas representing desired behaviors against a formal model of the system designed to exhibit these behaviors. To accomplish this task, the LTL formulas must be translated into automata [21]. We focus on LTL compilation by investigating LTL satisfiability checking via a reduction to model checking. Having shown that symbolic LTL compilation algorithms are superior to explicit automata construction algorithms for this task [16], we concentrate here on seeking a better symbolic algorithm.We present experimental data comparing algorithmic variations such as normal forms, encoding methods, and variable ordering and examine their effects on performance metrics including processing time and scalability. Safety critical systems, such as air traffic control, life support systems, hazardous environment controls, and automotive control systems, pervade our daily lives, yet testing and simulation alone cannot adequately verify their reliability [3]. Model checking is a promising approach to formal verification for safety critical systems which involves creating a formal mathematical model of the system and translating desired safety properties into a formal specification for this model. The complement of the specification is then checked against the system model. When the model does not satisfy the specification, model-checking tools accompany this negative answer with a counterexample, which points to an inconsistency between the system and the desired behaviors and aids debugging efforts.

Rozier, Kristin Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbine Energy Conversion System

Hydrokinetic turbines (HKTs) hold great promise as a renewable energy source, but high maintenance costs and limited energy output hinder their widespread adoption. The lack of comprehensive research on HKT drivetrain designs creates a knowledge gap in enhancing generation efficiency and cost reduction. A model of the HKT system with a focus on electric drivetrains and power converters is required to address this knowledge gap. This paper first introduces a MATLAB-averaged model integrating electrical-mechanical-thermal domains and aging behaviors within multi-time frames. Then a PLECS model, which incorporates maximum power point tracking and dq reference framed control for AC-DC-AC power converters, is enriched by a dynamic thermal model to predict fast transients accurately. These models optimize the design at the component level, resulting in improved integrated system performance. Furthermore, the validation of the models is carried out through hardware experiments for the averaged model and hardware-in-the-loop testing for the dynamic model.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting Understanding of Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Cu(111): Competing Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer Reaction Mechanisms Revealed by Embedded Correlated Wavefunction Theory

Copper (Cu) electrodes, as the most efficacious of CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) electrocatalysts, serve as prototypes for determining and validating reaction mechanisms associated with electrochemical CO 2 reduction to hydrocarbons. As in situ electrochemical mechanism determination by experiments is still out of reach, such mechanistic analysis typically is conducted using density functional theory (DFT). The semilocal exchange-correlation (XC) approximations most often used to model such catalysis unfortunately engender a basic error: predicting the wrong adsorption site for CO (a key CO 2 RR intermediate) on the most ubiquitous facet of Cu, namely, Cu(111). This longstanding inconsistency casts lingering doubt on previous DFT predictions of the attendant CO 2 RR kinetics. Here, we apply embedded correlated wavefunction (ECW) theory, which corrects XC functional error, to study the CO 2 RR on Cu(111) via both surface hydride (*H) transfer and proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). We predict that adsorbed CO (*CO) reduces almost equally to two intermediates, namely, hydroxymethylidyne (*COH) and formyl (*CHO) at –0.9 V vs the RHE. In contrast, semilocal DFT approximations predict a strong preference for *COH. With increasing applied potential, the dominance of *COH (formed via potential-independent surface *H transfer) diminishes, switching to the competitive formation of both *CHO and *COH (both formed via potential-dependent PCET). Furthermore, our results also demonstrate the importance of including explicitly modeled solvent molecules in predicting electron-transfer barriers and reveal the pitfalls of overreliance on simple surface *H transfer models of reduction reactions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS1994

Software for continuum modeling of controls-structures interactions

It is clear that computer software is needed to assist in the generation of the equations of motion for complex, flexible spacecraft. Daniel Poelaert of ESTEC has developed the software DISTEL with which he has modeled the structural dynamics for different satellites. He is interested in expanding the capabilities of DISTEL to include structural damping and control systems. Unfortunately, the software has not been released. The author has developed similar software, PDEMOD, which has been used to model the Spacecraft control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE), the Solar Array Flight Experiment (SAFE), the Mini-MAST truss, and the LACE satellite. PDEMOD has been used also for optimal parameter estimation and integrated control-structures design. PDEMOD is also being extended to include structural damping and control systems which are imbedded into the same equations for the structural dynamics. This paper will address the formulation of the equations for the structural dynamics of spacecraft structures which are constructed of a 3-dimensional arrangement of rigid bodies and flexible beam elements. Control system dynamics are imbedded into the same equations so that model order reduction approximations are not necessary. The input data consists of the physical data of the elements and the topological information describing how the elements are connected. PDEMOD accomplishes the following: (1) automatically assembles the equations of motion for the entire structural model; (2) calculates the modal frequencies; (3) calculates the mode shapes; (4) generates perspective views of the mode shapes; and (5) forms selected transfer functions. The software PDEMOD continues to be developed to provide additional features to assist in analyzing and synthesizing control and structural systems for flexible spacecraft.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Development and application of a technique for reducing airframe finite element models for dynamics analysis

A computational procedure for the reduction of large finite element models was developed. This procedure is used to obtain a significantly reduced model while retaining the essential global dynamic characteristics of the full-size model. This reduction procedure is applied to the airframe finite element model of AH-64A Attack Helicopter. The resulting reduced model is then validated by application to a vibration reduction study.

Hashemi-Kia, Mostafa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting and Accelerating Transformers for Jet Tagging

Attention-based transformers are ubiquitous in machine learning applications from natural language processing to computer vision. In high energy physics, one central application is to classify collimated particle showers in colliders based on the particle of origin, known as jet tagging. In this work, we study the interpretatbility and prospects for acceleration of Particle Transformer (ParT), a state-of-the-art model, leverages particle-level attention to improve jet-tagging performance. We analyzing ParT's attention maps and particle-pair correlations in the eta-phi plane, revealing intriguing features, such as a binary attention pattern that identifies critical substructure in jets. These insights enhance our understanding of the model's internal workings and learning process and hint at ways to improve its efficiency. Along these lines, we also explore low-rank attention, attention alternatives, and dynamic quantization to accelerate transformers for jet tagging. With quantization, we achieve a 50% reduction in model size and a 10% increase in inference speed without compromising accuracy. These combined efforts enhance both the performance and the interpretability of transformers in high-energy physics, opening avenues for more efficient and physics-driven model designs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Progressive construction of a parametric reduced‐order model for PDE‐constrained optimization

Summary An adaptive approach to using reduced‐order models (ROMs) as surrogates in partial differential equations (PDE)‐constrained optimization is introduced that breaks the traditional offline‐online framework of model order reduction. A sequence of optimization problems constrained by a given ROM is defined with the goal of converging to the solution of a given PDE‐constrained optimization problem. For each reduced optimization problem, the constraining ROM is trained from sampling the high‐dimensional model (HDM) at the solution of some of the previous problems in the sequence. The reduced optimization problems are equipped with a nonlinear trust‐region based on a residual error indicator to keep the optimization trajectory in a region of the parameter space where the ROM is accurate. A technique for incorporating sensitivities into a reduced‐order basis is also presented, along with a methodology for computing sensitivities of the ROM that minimizes the distance to the corresponding HDM sensitivity, in a suitable norm. The proposed reduced optimization framework is applied to subsonic aerodynamic shape optimization and shown to reduce the number of queries to the HDM by a factor of 4‐5, compared with the optimization problem solved using only the HDM, with errors in the optimal solution far less than 0.1%. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zahr, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the accomplishments of work performed under DOE Office of Science Award DE-SC0022266, which is titled “Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs”. The goal of the project was to extend methods from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) to tackle central computational challenges in model order reduction and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we sought to use importance sampling methods originally developed for RandNLA to develop sample efficient active learning algorithms for approximating high-dimensional scalar functions, e.g. by polynomials, Gaussian process models, and simple neural networks. Such methods can be immediately applied to developing surrogate models or to approximating quantity of interest (QoI) surfaces. In the context of PDEs, each sample used for learning equates to the solution of the differential equation for a particular set of parameters, so sample efficiency translates to improved computational efficiency for a variety of downstream tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Where Big Data and Prediction Meet

Our ability to assemble and analyze massive data sets, often referred to under the title of “big data”, is an increasingly important tool for shaping national policy. This in turn has introduced issues from privacy concerns to cyber security. But as IBM’s John Kelly emphasized in the last Innovation, making sense of the vast arrays of data will require radically new computing tools. In the past, technologies and tools for analysis of big data were viewed as quite different from the traditional realm of high performance computing (HPC) with its huge models of phenomena such as global climate or supporting the nuclear test moratorium. Looking ahead, this will change with very positive benefits for both worlds. Societal issues such as global security, economic planning and genetic analysis demand increased understanding that goes beyond existing data analysis and reduction. The modeling world often produces simulations that are complex compositions of mathematical models and experimental data. This has resulted in outstanding successes such as the annual assessment of the state of the US nuclear weapons stockpile without underground nuclear testing. Ironically, while there were historically many test conducted, this body of data provides only modest insight into the underlying physics of the system. A great deal of emphasis was thus placed on the level of confidence we can develop for the predictions. As data analytics and simulation come together, there is a growing need to assess the confidence levels in both data being gathered and the complex models used to make predictions. An example of this is assuring the security or optimizing the performance of critical infrastructure systems such as the power grid. If one wants to understand the vulnerabilities of the system or impacts of predicted threats, full scales tests of the grid against threat scenarios are unlikely. Preventive measures would need to be predicated on well-defined margins of confidence in order to take mitigating actions that could have wide ranging impacts. There is a rich opportunity for interaction and exchange between the HPC simulation and data analytics communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revised Nitrogen Reduction Scaling Relations from Potential-Dependent Modeling of Chemical and Electrochemical Steps

The electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) is a promising route to enable carbon-free ammonia production. However, this reaction is limited by the poor activity and selectivity of current catalysts. The rational design of superior NRR electrocatalysts requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of current material limitations to inform how these might be overcome. The current understanding of how scaling limits NRR on metal catalysts is predicated on a simplified reaction pathway that considers only proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) steps. Here, we apply grand-canonical density functional theory to investigate a more comprehensive NRR mechanism that includes both electrochemical and chemical steps on 30 metal surfaces in solvent under an applied potential. We applied ..phi..max, a grand-canonical adaptation of the Gmax thermodynamic descriptor, to evaluate trends in catalyst activity. This approach produces a ..phi..max "volcano" diagram for NRR activity scaling on metals that qualitatively differs from the scaling relations identified when only PCET steps are considered. NH3* desorption was found to limit the NRR activity for materials at the top of the volcano and truncate the volcano's peak at increasingly reducing potentials. These revised scaling relations may inform the rational design of superior NRR electrocatalysts. This approach is transferable to study other materials and reaction chemistries where both electrochemical and chemical steps are modeled under an applied potential.

electrocatalysis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Integrating diagnostics and model-based optimization

Energy Management and Information Systems are a family of analytics technologies that include energy information systems, fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), and automated system optimization tools. Such systems have the potential to enable buildings to meet energy management goals of reducing total energy consumption and cost. Most current market offerings use data-driven and rule-based analytics. However, the use of physics-based models in the analytics offers potential improvements by providing an accurate estimation of outputs based on representation of the physical principles governing the building system behaviors. This also permits the use of design stage models to inform commissioning and operation. This paper describes the development and testing of a hybrid data-driven and physics model-based operational tool for energy efficiency in central cooling plants. The tool offers FDD functionality, setpoint optimization, and visualization of key performance parameters. It was demonstrated at a university campus in the mixed-humid ASHRAE Climate Zone 4A. Key performance metrics that were analyzed include plant electricity use reduction, plant model calibration, and system economics. Annual simulations indicate the tool can provide electricity savings of greater than 10% for approximately six months of the year, mainly during the winter season when wet bulb temperatures are low, though only 1.38% savings for the entire year. Additionally, over a 4-day period in April, recommended optimal setpoints were implemented, resulting in 17% savings versus metered baseline consumption. With respect to model calibration, the difference between model-predicted and measured parameters was less than 10% for 90% of data points acquired for three of six chillers, and for each ten cooling towers. Finally, the tool users reported that satisfaction with the capabilities was equal to or better than that with the preexisting BAS system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Herbaceous Feedstock 2019 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the State of Technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014)) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT incorporates several technology changes in feedstock preprocessing and introduces opportunities from the integrated landscape management (ILM) strategy and increased grower participation to reduce biomass access costs, while maintaining or improving grower profitability. During FY18 uneven flow from the horizontal bale grinder was identified as a significant issue limiting preprocessing system throughput. Based on FSL-funded research at INL, the 2019 Herbaceous SOT replaces the horizontal bale grinder used in the first stage size reduction with a bale processor. The improved uniformity of biomass flow entering the PDU eliminated slugging flow from the first stage size reduction and improved the throughput of downstream operations. In order to achieve moisture reduction through frictional heating during grinding (which allowed elimination of the costly rotary drum dryer in previous SOTs), the second stage grinder was changed from a rotary shear, which does not remove moisture, back to a hammer mill. Finally, the 2019 Herbaceous SOT introduces modified three-pass and two-pass corn stover supply curves derived from the BT16 resource assessment, based on FY19 modeling results (WBS 4.2.1.20) quantifying economic benefits of ILM in the supply area, together with modeling results (WBS 1.2.1.5) identifying ILM strategies to increase grower participation. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of an herbaceous feedstock supply system from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $81.37 /dry ton (2016$); this is a $2.30/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2018 Herbaceous SOT. Technology improvements that contributed to this modeled cost reduction include reduced cost for the new preprocessing design and quantification of the opportunities of the integrated landscape management (ILM) strategy and an increased grower participation rate to reduce the grower payment portion of biomass access costs, while maintaining or improving grower profitability. A greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assessment was completed by Argonne National Laboratory using the 2019 Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation model, estimating an increase of 14.89 kg CO2e/ton from the 2018 SOT (69.27 kg CO2e/ton in 2018 to 84.16 kg CO2e/ton in 2019). The increase of energy consumption during preprocessing along with higher transportation distance to access low cost biomass from further distance contributed to the increase of GHG emissions in the 2019 Herbaceous SOT. The reason for the increased transportation distances was the cost tradeoff of going farther from the biorefinery to access the cheaper ILM-derived counties (the cheaper price outweighed the cost of increased supply radius).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer to the Parameterization of Momentum Flux in the Community Earth System Model

Recent studies have demonstrated that high-resolution (~25 km) Earth System Models (ESMs) have the potential to skillfully predict tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence and intensity. However, biases in ESM TCs still exist, largely due to the need to parameterize processes such as boundary layer (PBL) turbulence. Building on past studies, we hypothesize that the depiction of the TC PBL in ESMs is sensitive to the configuration of the PBL parameterization scheme, and that the targeted perturbation of tunable parameters can reduce biases. The Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method is implemented to assess the sensitivity of the TC PBL to tunable parameters in the PBL scheme in an idealized configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The MOAT method objectively identifies several parameters in an experimental version of the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme that appreciably influence the structure of the TC PBL. We then perturb the parameters identified by the MOAT method within a suite of CAM6 ensemble simulations and find a reduction in model biases compared to observations and a high-resolution, cloud-resolving model. Importantly, we demonstrate that the high-sensitivity parameters are tied to PBL processes that reduce turbulent mixing and effective eddy diffusivity, and that in CAM6 these parameters alter the TC PBL in a manner consistent with past modeling studies. In this way, we provide an initial identification of process-based input parameters that, when altered, have the potential to improve TC predictions by ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗