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At least 793 records · Page 44

A reactive flow model for the 3,3'-diamino-4,4'-azoxyfurazan based plastic bonded explosive (PBX 9701)

Here, this paper describes the calibration of the Arrhenius Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow model for the recently developed high explosive PBX 9701, which consists of 97% 3,3'-diamino-4,4'-azoxyfurazan (DAAF) and 3% FK-800 binder by weight. DAAF-based explosive formulations have several desirable qualities as they are relatively insensitive to non-shock insults but have higher performance than triaminotrinitrobenzene based formulations. Equations of state for the explosive reactants and products are calibrated using a combination of existing and new experimental data and theoretical calculations. The AWSD rate law calibration utilizes both one-dimensional shock-to-detonation and multidimensional rate stick experiments to capture the shock initiation and propagating detonation regimes. Validation of the calibrated model is demonstrated through comparison with recent gas-gun experiments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Calibration strategy of the PROSPECT-II detector with external and intrinsic sources

This paper presents an energy calibration scheme for an upgraded reactor antineutrino detector for the Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment (PROSPECT). The PROSPECT collaboration is preparing an upgraded detector, PROSPECT-II (P-II), to advance capabilities for the investigation of fundamental neutrino physics, fission processes and associated reactor neutrino flux, and nuclear security applications. P-II will expand the statistical power of the original PROSPECT (P-I) dataset by at least an order of magnitude. The new design builds upon previous P-I design and focuses on improving the detector robustness and long-term stability to enable multi-year operation at one or more sites. The new design optimizes the fiducial volume by elimination of dead space previously occupied by internal calibration channels, which in turn necessitates the external deployment. In this paper, we describe a calibration strategy for P-II. Here, the expected performance of externally deployed calibration sources is evaluated using P-I data and a well-benchmarked simulation package by varying detector segmentation configurations in the analysis. The proposed external calibration scheme delivers a compatible energy scale model and achieves comparable performance with the inclusion of an additional AmBe neutron source, in comparison to the previous internal arrangement. Most importantly, the estimated uncertainty contribution from the external energy scale calibration model meets the precision requirements of the P-II experiment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems

Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling Losses in a Three Electrode System Towards Fast Charge Control

In this work we demonstrate the applicability of a versatile separator-reference mounted electrode in a three-electrode setup to accurately capture the primary current pathway in the battery cell during operation, calibrate a porous electrode model to the individual anode and cathode potential signals, and assign the various resistances to electrochemical phenomena in the battery cell. This calibrated electrochemical model is validated using continuous rate discharges associated with highway driving scenarios in an electric vehicle, and in turn utilized to predict the local anode potential and proximity to lithium plating onset. Finally, we demonstrate the strategy associated with utilization of the model to estimate constant anode potential charging during fast charge scenarios at various rates and starting conditions as a future look to fast charge calibration development and controls.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)↗

Grid Modeling and Hosting Capacity Analysis

An interface with the OpenDSS distribution grid simulator, facilitating users in calibrating and validating models. Additionally, three distinct tools have been developed: PV Hosting Capacity: This tool allows users to determine the additional amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation that can be integrated into the system without breaching operational constraints. EV Hosting Capacity: This tool focuses on identifying the capacity for incorporating extra electric vehicle (EV) load into the system without surpassing operational limitations. Project Impact Analysis Tool: This tool is designed to assess and report all potential grid violations associated with a specific project, providing valuable insights into its impact on the distribution grid.

Poudel, Shiva↗

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formulation and calibration of two-dimensional constitutive models for composite structures based on panel tests

Steel Plate Concrete (SC) composite members have been widely adopted because of its cost-efficiency and enhanced structural behavior. While researchers have attempted to study its in-plane shear behavior in the past twenty years, very limited number of large-scale pure shear tests were performed due to the challenge of experimental set-up and the availability of facilities. In this paper, a series of uniaxial loading tests and two full-scale pure shear panel tests of SC members were reported, on which the “mechanics-based Membrane Model of SC elements (MM-SC)” is developed. The MM-SC model is based on the fixed-angle crack formulation and the smeared-crack formulation, in which the experimental-based uniaxial constitutive models are implemented, considering the local buckling of faceplate, the tension stiffening of steel plate, the strength degradation of cracked concrete and the confinement effect of concrete. The proposed MM-SC model is subsequently incorporated into the object-oriented software OpenSEES. Finally, the simulation results of proposed model well predict the SC test observations in terms of critical branch points and structural behaviors, including initial stiffness, cracking strength, post-crack stiffness, yield strength, maximum strength, and failure modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data for Microbial-Explicit Processes and Refined Perennial Plant Traits Improve Modeled Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics

Globally, soils hold approximately half of ecosystem carbon and can serve as a source or sink depending on climate, vegetation, management, and disturbance regimes. Understanding how soil carbon dynamics are influenced by these factors is essential to evaluate proposed natural climate solutions and policy regarding net ecosystem carbon balance. Soil microbes play a key role in both carbon fluxes and stabilization. However, biogeochemical models often do not specifically address microbial-explicit processes. Here, we incorporated microbial-explicit processes into the DayCent biogeochemical model to better represent large perennial grasses and mechanisms of soil carbon formation and stabilization. We also take advantage of recent model improvements to better represent perennial grass structural complexity and life-history traits. Specifically, this study focuses on: 1) a plant sub-model that represents perennial phenology and more refined plant chemistry with downstream implications for soil organic matter (SOM) cycling though litter inputs, 2) live and dead soil microbe pools that influence routing of carbon to physically protected and unprotected pools, 3) Michaelis-Menten kinetics rather than first-order kinetics in the soil decomposition calculations, and 4) feedbacks between decomposition and live microbial pools. We evaluated the performance of the plant sub-model and two SOM cycling sub-models, Michaelis-Menten (MM) and first-order (FO), using observations of net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, soil respiration, microbial biomass, and soil carbon from long-term bioenergy research plots in the mid-western United States. The MM sub-model represented seasonal dynamics of soil carbon fluxes better than the FO sub-model which consistently overestimated winter soil respiration. While both SOM sub-models were similarly calibrated to total, physically protected, and physically unprotected soil carbon measurements, the models differed in future soil carbon response to disturbance and climate, most notably in the protected pools. Adding microbial-explicit mechanisms of soil processes to ecosystem models will improve model predictions of ecosystem carbon balances but more data and research are necessary to validate disturbance and climate change responses and soil pool allocation.

Field Data↗

LANL MPCL Measurement System Analysis: AMPTEC 630ES Igniter Tester / Ohmmeter

This comprehensive analysis aimed to evaluate the measurement capability of the AMPTEC 630ES Explosive Safety Igniter Tester, a critical tool for organizations engaged in the measurement of High Explosive components and related Electro-Explosive devices. With a history of notable calibration issues involving specific model numbers, the Metrology Program and Calibration Laboratory (MPCL) initiated an extensive Measurement System Analysis. The analysis's primary focus was to thoroughly quantify the various sources of measurement variability intrinsic to the calibration process. It centered on two pivotal aspects: repeatability (the variation observed when the same operator uses the same instrument) and reproducibility (the variation seen when different operators perform measurements). A secondary objective was to determine whether equipment usage and age had any impact on the instrument's performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Refinement and Modeling of a Blackbody-Based Calibration Method in the InfraBREAD Detector

The Broadband Reflector Experiment for Axion Detection (BREAD) is an ongoing experiment searching for the conversion of yet undiscovered axion-like dark matter particles to photons in the presence of a magnetic field. InfraBREAD, a sub-experiment of BREAD, uses a superconducting nanowire single photon detector (SNSPD), a high-efficiency and low-noise device, to specifically detect infrared-range photons produced by $\mathcal{O}$(eV) axion-like particles. The unique BREAD reflector setup allows for the focusing of all converted signal photons to a 1mm $\times$ 1mm SNSPD. However, when the detector is cooled to cryogenic temperatures during operation, uneven thermal contraction of reflector components may lead to a small shift in the location of the focal spot. A novel calibration method using blackbody radiation is proposed to locate the true focal spot of the detector \textit{in situ}. Through ray tracing simulations done in FRED Optical Engineering Software, this method is demonstrated to locate the focus to within 50 $\mu$m in three dimensions.

Rao, Shardul↗

Characterization of Neutron Emission Rates of Commercial 252 Cf Sources

Accurate knowledge of 252 Cf neutron emission rates is critical for modeling and fast-neutron experiments, yet commercial sources are often supplied without traceable calibration or uncertainty estimates. This report describes a method to characterize 252 Cf sources using a pulse-shape-discrimination (PSD) scintillator. The scintillator was efficiency-calibrated against a time-tagged 252 Cf fission chamber manufactured at ORNL over 40 years ago. Isotopic evolution of the calibration source was modeled using Bateman equations to account for changes in the effective average neutrons per fission at the time of measurement. The calibrated scintillator was then used to measure absolute emission rates of several commercial 252 Cf sources, revealing deviations of up to 12% from nominal manufacturer values. This methodology provides a practical approach for establishing uncertainty-quantified 252 Cf neutron emission rates, improving fidelity in simulations and supporting the accurate interpretation of measurements.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗