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At least 793 records · Page 44

Correlation of Qualification and Accelerated Testing with Field Degradation

Qualification testing of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules per IEC 61215 standard encompasses a set of well-defined accelerated stress tests (irradiation, environmental, mechanical and electrical) with strict pass/fail criteria based on functionality/performance, electrical and mechanical safety, and visual requirements. The qualification testing does not identify all the possible reliability failures or durability issues witnessed in the actual field. However, it does identify the major/catastrophic design quality issues (infant mortality), which could occur early in a module’s field life. Unfortunately, in the industry, there is no consensus-based standard or protocol available to validate manufacturers’ warranty period claims based on the end-of-life wear-out failure mechanisms. Being able to predict the field degradation rates and lifetime using mode-specific accelerated tests on moderately field-aged modules, for example 10 years, for certain commonly occurring degradation modes would be a powerful contribution to all the stakeholders of the PV industry. There is a need to formulate guidelines to find the correlation of accelerated testing with field degradation for individual degradation modes observed in the field. Potential approaches to fulfill this need were experimented in this project and are presented in this report. Two of the most commonly seen degradation modes – encapsulant browning and solder bond thermomechanical fatigue – are addressed in this report through presenting the accelerated testing methods and physical modelling approaches. Two accelerated test methods (UV and thermal cycling) were designed to induce the wear-out mechanisms in the modules and not infant mortality failures. To focus on the wear-out failure modes, the tests were performed on field-aged modules, instead of fresh modules, with known degradation rates and degradation modes. The degradation rates were measured based on the degradation rates of individual cell parameters (short-circuit current, I sc and series resistance, R s ) instead of the degradation rate of maximum power (P max ) which cannot be used to study any specific/limited degradation mode as the P max degradation could be caused by many different degradation modes. The key characteristic parameter considered for encapsulant discoloration and solder bond degradation is I sc and R s , respectively. The developed physical models/equations relating the testing degradation data and field weather data were utilized to determine the acceleration factor (AF) and to predict the degradation rate for a specific degradation mode of PV modules installed in two different climates, Arizona (hot) and New York (cold). The predicted degradation rates for encapsulant browning and solder bond degradation have also been validated against the actual measured field degradation rates. UV testing cost reduction: To determine acceleration factor, single UV chamber was used for accelerated UV testing at three different temperatures simultaneously, instead of three chambers for three temperatures (or one chamber sequentially which is an extremely time-consuming approach). A passive heating approach was successfully used to achieve and maintain multiple temperatures in the accelerated UV chamber. Foam insulation boards of varying thicknesses were utilized to obtain three different temperatures for UV testing. However, these foam materials tend to disintegrate in the presence of moisture. To alleviate this problem, silicone heating blankets with temperature controls and humidifier can be used if the UV testing is to be performed under hot-humid conditions instead of conventional hot-dry conditions. Thermal cycling testing cost reduction: Single thermal cycling chamber was used for accelerated thermal cycling testing at three different upper temperatures simultaneously, instead of three chambers for three upper temperatures (or one chamber sequentially which is an extremely time-consuming approach). An active heating approach based on silicone heating blankets was successfully used to achieve and maintain multiple upper temperatures in the accelerated thermal cycling chamber. Such blankets provide stable temperature control and thereby more reliable and repeatable for replicate experiments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-frequency and Vertical Variations of Soil Moisture and their Impact on Ecosystem Dynamics

The vertical distribution of subsurface moisture is a major control on ecosystem dynamics and climate. The Mediterranean climate of California, with wet winters and dry summers, provides a testbed for understanding how transpiration is sustained through extended dry periods. The project developed and tested a new subsurface hydrology model that includes a parameterization of stochastic hydraulic conductivity to capture fracture flow, a diagnostic model of rooting profile that depends on the subsurface hydrology, and a representation of hydraulic redistribution by plant roots. A sensitivity study shows that it is plants with rooting depths >8 m that could access the subsurface moisture. The insight is applied to understand differential tree mortality during the 2012-2016 drought in California. The analysis shows that greater mortality trees on plutonic rocks than on sedimentary rocks. The study demonstrates, for the first time, the importance of lithology for the distribution and health of ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Head Bypass Fish Passage Investigations: Year One (Final Report)

The goal of this first year study is to investigate the effects of downstream passage on fish health by comparing two methods: downstream fish passage at a high head dam through a bypass system, and downstream fish passage at a collection facility with vehicle conveyance to understand which method best supports achieving biological performance metrics, and what structural design or operational changes can be implemented to reduce stress and mortality in juvenile Chinook salmon. This study will occur at Green Peter Dam (or Green Peter). To achieve this goal, we will evaluate stress, injury, and mortality rates of downstream migrating juveniles after passage through a bypass system compared to holding fish in a collection facility and vehicle conveyance (trap and haul). This study will be conducted by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in collaboration with researchers from Oregon State University (OSU). Results from this study will be used to inform the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Product Delivery Teams (PDTs) charged with designing improvements for downstream juvenile fish passage at high head dams in the Willamette River basin. The broader intent is to support management decisions on long-term measures and operations to rebuild populations of Upper Willamette River spring Chinook salmon listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Using acoustic telemetry for high-resolution sablefish movement informing potential interactions with a tidal turbine

As the MHK industry moves forward to the commercial phase, knowledge of potential environmental effects need to be documented and established. At present, the potential for fish interactions and subsequent injury or mortality are a significant concern with instream turbines. Sensors, methodologies, and analyses need to be developed to detect collision or near-miss events. These data will reduce uncertainty of the likelihood of such events and provide information to regulators to make informed decisions on permitting and possible mitigation measures if needed. Acoustic telemetry is a primary method for studying fine-scale fish movements because it can remotely track fish in three dimensions with accuracy. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has proven effective for fish passage estimates and fine-scale movement in river impoundments and near dams. Leveraging the success of previous JSATS applications and applying it to the marine environment, juvenile sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) were tagged and tracked using a fixed-position receiver array in a marine tidal channel for the first time. Applying this technology to future installations of MHK turbines will provide information on fish avoidance and evasion behavior as well as blade strike and potential injury and mortality.

Staines, Garrett J.↗

Global disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction up to 2030

Background Numerous studies have already identified an association between excessive consumption of red meat and colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there has been a lack of detailed understanding regarding the disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and CRC. Objective We aim to offer evidence-based guidance for developing effective strategies that can mitigate the elevated CRC burden in certain countries. Methods We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to evaluate global, regional, and national mortality rates and disability-adjusted Life years (DALYs) related to diet high in red meat. We also considered factors such as sex, age, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and evaluated the cross-national inequalities. Furthermore, we utilized DALYs data from 204 countries and regions to measure cross-country inequalities of CRC by calculating the slope index of inequality and concentration index as standard indicators of absolute and relative inequalities. Discussion The results show that globally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate (ASDR) related to CRC due to diet high in red meat have decreased, with estimated annual percent change (EAPCs) of −0.32% (95% CI −0.37 to −0.28) and-0.18% (95% CI −0.25 to −0.11). Notably, the burden was higher among males and the elderly. The slope index of inequality rose from 22.0 (95% CI 18.1 to 25.9) in 1990 to 32.9 (95% CI 28.3 to 37.5) in 2019 and the concentration index fell from 59.5 (95% CI 46.4 to 72.6) in 1990 to 48.9 (95% CI 34.6 to 63.1) in 2019. Also, according to our projections, global ASDR and ASMR might tend to increase up to 2030. Conclusion ASMR and ASDR for CRC associated with high red meat diets declined globally from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute number of cases is still rising, with men and the elderly being more affected. CRC associated with diets high in red meat exhibits significant income inequality, placing a disproportionate burden on wealthier countries. Moreover, according to our projections, ASMR and ASDR are likely to increase globally by 2030. In order to address this intractable disease problem, understanding changes in global and regional epidemiologic trends is critical for policy makers and others.

Yang, Xuesong↗

An Updated Review of Hypotheses Regarding Bat Attraction to Wind Turbines

Patterns of bat activity and mortalities at wind energy facilities suggest that bats are attracted to wind turbines based on bat behavioral responses to wind turbines. For example, current monitoring efforts suggest that bat activity increases post-wind turbine construction, with bats making multiple passes near wind turbines. We separated the attraction hypothesis into five previously proposed explanations of bat interactions at or near wind turbines, including attraction based on noise, roost sites, foraging and water, mating behavior, and lights, and one new hypothesis regarding olfaction, and provide a state of the knowledge in 2022. Our review indicates that future research should prioritize attraction based on social behaviors, such as mating and scent-marking, as this aspect of the attraction hypothesis has many postulates and remains the most unclear. Relatively more data regarding attraction to wind turbines based on lighting and noise emission exist, and these data indicate that these are unlikely attractants. Analyzing attraction at the species-level should be prioritized because of differences in foraging, flight, and social behavior among bat species. Lastly, research assessing bat attraction at various scales, such as the turbine or facility scale, is lacking, which could provide important insights for both wind turbine siting decisions and bat mortality minimization strategies. Identifying the causes of bat interactions with wind turbines is critical for developing effective impact minimization strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Hydropower Biological Evaluation Toolset (HBET) for Characterizing Hydraulic Conditions and Impacts of Hydro-Structures on Fish

Currently, approximately 16% of the world’s electricity and over 80% of the world’s renewable electricity is generated from hydropower resources, and there is potential for development of a significant amount of new hydropower capacity. However, in practice, realizing all the potential hydropower resource is limited by various factors, including environmental effects and related mitigation requirements. That is why hydropower regulatory requirements frequently call for targets to be met regarding fish injury and mortality rates. Hydropower Biological Evaluation Toolset (HBET), an integrated suite of software tools, is designed to characterize hydraulic conditions of hydropower structures and provide quantitative estimates of fish injury and mortality rates due to various physical stressors including strike, pressure, and shear. HBET enables users to design new studies, analyze data, perform statistical analyses, and evaluate biological responses. In this paper, we discuss the features of the HBET software and describe a case study that illustrates its functionalities. Here, HBET can be used by turbine manufacturers, hydropower operators, and regulators to design and operate hydropower systems that minimize ecological impacts in a cost-effective manner.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Experimental Evidence of Mechanical Isotropy in Porcine Lung Parenchyma

Pulmonary injuries are a major source of morbidity and mortality associated with trauma. Trauma includes injuries associated with accidents and falls as well as blast injuries caused by explosives. The prevalence and mortality of these injuries has made research of pulmonary injury a major priority. Lungs have a complex structure, with multiple types of tissues necessary to allow successful respiration. The soft, porous parenchyma is the component of the lung which contains the alveoli responsible for gas exchange. Parenchyma is also the portion which is most susceptible to traumatic injury. Finite element simulations are an important tool for studying traumatic injury to the human body. These simulations rely on material properties to accurately recreate real world mechanical behaviors. Previous studies have explored the mechanical properties of lung tissues, specifically parenchyma. These studies have assumed material isotropy but, to our knowledge, no study has thoroughly tested and quantified this assumption. This study presents a novel methodology for assessing isotropy in a tissue, and applies these methods to porcine lung parenchyma. Briefly, lung parenchyma samples were dissected so as to be aligned with one of the three anatomical planes, sagittal, frontal, and transverse, and then subjected to compressive mechanical testing. Stress-strain curves from these tests were statistically compared by a novel method for differences in stresses and strains at percentages of the curve. Histological samples aligned with the anatomical planes were also examined by qualitative and quantitative methods to determine any differences in the microstructural morphology. Our study showed significant evidence to support the hypothesis that lung parenchyma behaves isotropically.

Materials Science↗

Laboratory Infection of Novel Akhmeta Virus in CAST/EiJ Mice

Akhmeta virus is a zoonotic Orthopoxvirus first identified in 2013 in the country of Georgia. Subsequent ecological investigations in Georgia have found evidence that this virus is widespread in its geographic distribution within the country and in its host-range, with rodents likely involved in its circulation in the wild. Yet, little is known about the pathogenicity of this virus in rodents. We conducted the first laboratory infection of Akhmeta virus in CAST/EiJ Mus musculus to further characterize this novel virus. We found a dose-dependent effect on mortality and weight loss (p < 0.05). Anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies were detected in the second- and third-highest dose groups (5 × 104 pfu and 3 × 102 pfu) at euthanasia by day 10, and day 14 post-infection, respectively. Anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies were not detected in the highest dose group (3 × 106 pfu), which were euthanized at day 7 post-infection and had high viral load in tissues, suggesting they succumbed to disease prior to mounting an effective immune response. In order of highest burden, viable virus was detected in the nostril, lung, tail, liver and spleen. All individuals tested in the highest dose groups were DNAemic. Akhmeta virus was highly pathogenic in CAST/EiJ Mus musculus, causing 100% mortality when ≥3 × 102 pfu was administered.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Balloon Tag Manufacturing Technique for Sensor Fish and Live Fish Recovery

Fish may experience injuries and mortality when they pass through hydraulic conveyances at hydropower dams, even if these conveyances are designed to be fish-friendly, such as downstream bypass systems, modified spillways and turbines. The main methods used to study fish passage conditions in hydraulic structures involve direct, in situ testing using Sensor Fish technology and live fish. Sensor Fish data helps identify physical stressors and their locations in the fish passage environment, while live fish are assessed for injuries and mortality. Balloon tags, which are self-inflating balloons attached externally to Sensor Fish and live fish, aid in their recovery after passing through hydraulic structures. This article focuses on the development of balloon tags with varying numbers of dissolvable, vegetable-based capsules containing a mixture of oxalic acid, sodium bicarbonate powders, and water at two different temperatures. Our research determined that balloon tags with three capsules, injected with 5 mL of water at 18.3 °C, consistently achieved the desired balloon volume. These tags had a mean inflation volume of 114 cm 3 with a standard deviation of 1.2 cm 3 . Among the balloon tags injected with water at 18.3 °C, it was observed that the two-capsule balloon tags took the longest time to reach full inflation. In addition, the four-capsule balloon tags demonstrated a faster inflation start time, while the three-capsule balloon tags demonstrated a faster deflation start time. Overall, this approach proves to be effective for validating the performance of new technologies, improving turbine design, and making operational decisions to enhance fish passage conditions. Importantly, it serves as a valuable tool for research and field evaluations, aiding in the refinement of both the design and operation of hydraulic structures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NITROGEN CAN LIMIT OVERSTORY TREE GROWTH FOLLOWING EXTREME STAND DENSITY INCREASE IN A PONDEROSA PINE FOREST

Extreme stand density increases have occurred in ponderosa pine forests throughout the western U.S. since the early 20th Century, with adverse implications for growth, physiological functioning, and mortality risk. Identifying primary stressors on large, old overstory trees in dense forests can inform management decisions to promote resilience and survival. We tested the impact of stand density increase on overstory treering growth, and the relative influence of water and nitrogen, in an old-growth ponderosa pine forest subject to variable density increase. We measured annual tree-ring growth and carbon discrimination in trees before stand density increased, in a climatically-similar period post-density increase, and in recent transition to drought. We expected density-driven water stress to drive reduced tree-ring growth in overstory trees in dense stands. We found reduced growth and higher mortality in dense stands, but nitrogen rather than water constrained growth, as determined by carbon isotope discrimination in tree rings, leaf nitrogen concentration, and soil nitrogen supply. In dense stands, less available nitrogen limited photosynthetic rate, leading to reduced assimilation of intracellular 13C and higher discrimination with low tree-ring growth and a reduced relationship with climate. This unexpected result illustrates that a variety of limiting factors can influence forest dynamics, as density-driven nitrogen limitation interacts with water stress to influence tree growth and physiological functioning.

dendroecology, tree-ring width, limiting factors, ↗

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

Abstract. The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures ( T ) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θ e ) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θ e are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity ( Q ) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights ( Z ), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture ( SM ). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θ e over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θ e . Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T , synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM ). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θ e , where more complex models built using ANN with multiple hidden layers are better able to capture the day-to-day variability in θ e and the occurrence of extreme maximum θ e . Over the entire domain, the ANN with three hidden layers exhibits high accuracy in predicting maximum θ e &gt; 347 K. The median hit rate for maximum θ e >347 K is > 0.60, while the median false alarm rate is ≈ 0.08.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Value of Continued Followup in a Preventive Medicine Program

Continued monitoring of hypertension and cholesterol levels in NASA employees by regularly scheduled medical examinations prevents an increase in employee disability and cardiovascular mortality rates. Adequate therapeutic control for younger hypertensive employees is demonstrated by records on mortality and heart diseases over a period of 28 months. It confirmed the importance of systolic blood pressure as diagnostic tool for the inherent risk factor. The prevalence of additional coronary risk factors among employees with hypercholesterolemia is considerably less than in employees with hypertension.

Villafana, C.↗

Application of ERTS-1 imagery and underflight photography in the detection and monitoring of forest insect infections in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of ERTS-1 imagery with underflight aerial photo support including U-2, in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, indicates promising possibilities of detecting and monitoring forest insect outbreaks visually with some mechanical support utilizing the VP-8 image analyzer. Visually, it is possible at a scale of 1:1,000,000 to discriminate between large areas of damaged and undamaged forests; timbered and non-timbered areas; pasture land and cultivated fields; desert and riparian vegetation. At a scale of 1:80,000 it is possible to distinguish among three classes of tree mortality; defoliated and undefoliated areas; non-host mixed conifers; and mountain meadows, rock domes, lakes and glaciers. Machine tests showed significant differences in image densities among various bands and mortality areas.

Hall, R. C.↗

Candidate substances for space bioprocessing methodology and data specification for benefit evaluation

Analytical and quantitative economic techniques are applied to the evaluation of the economic benefits of a wide range of substances for space bioprocessing. On the basis of expected clinical applications, as well as the size of the patient that could be affected by the clinical applications, eight substances are recommended for further benefit evaluation. Results show that a transitional probability methodology can be used to model at least one clinical application for each of these substances. In each recommended case, the disease and its therapy are sufficiently well understood and documented, and the statistical data is available to operate the model and produce estimates of the impact of new therapy systems on the cost of treatment, morbidity, and mortality. Utilizing the morbidity and mortality information produced by the model, a standard economic technique called the Value of Human Capital is used to estimate the social welfare benefits that could be attributable to the new therapy systems.

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