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What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.
Molecular thermodynamic modeling of aqueous Na + -K + -Mg 2+ -Ca 2+ -SO 4 2- quinary system
As part of the effort to develop a comprehensive molecular thermodynamic model for high salinity produced water based on the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid theory, this work presents the model results for the aqueous Na + -K + -Mg 2+ -Ca 2+ -SO 4 2- quinary system. With the binary interaction parameters fully parameterized for the water-electrolyte pairs and the electrolyte-electrolyte pairs, the model satisfactorily describes the thermodynamic properties for the aqueous quinary system and its binary, ternary, and quaternary subsystems for the temperature range 273.15–473.15 K and the salt concentrations up to saturation. The model results are compared with the salt solubility and thermodynamic data available for the subsystems with special attention to systems involving (Ca 2+ SO 4 2- ).
A unified non-equilibrium phase change model for injection flow modeling
The homogenous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid- gas phase transition. However, in its original formulation, it is unable to handle multispecies vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE), which limits its applicability to single-component fluids. In this work, a unified non-equilibrium phase change model that considers the VLE of multicomponent mixtures is proposed building upon the HRM's structure. A time factor is introduced to mimic the effect of different phase change timescales due to different mechanisms, e.g., cavitation, flash-boiling, and evaporation. Here to assess the model's performance, computational fluid dynamics simulations of the internal and near-nozzle injection flow of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed using the nine-component PACE-20 fuel with both the unified model and the original HRM. The predicted fuel density in the near-nozzle region matched well with X-ray tomography measurements. The simulation results indicated that, whereas the HRM failed to capture the vaporization due to convective mixing between the fuel and ambient gas, the unified model performed well in predicting the mixing-driven vaporization and the corresponding evaporative cooling. Further comparisons using the nine-component fuel formula and a single-component fuel surrogate demonstrated the unified model's ability to predict preferential vaporization, which affects the predictions of local mixture composition and rate of vaporization. Finally, it is shown that the unified model is capable of representing multiple phase change mechanisms, and the relaxation time factor plays an important role in determining the degree of phase change due to the different mechanisms.
Selection of polynomial chaos bases via Bayesian model uncertainty methods with applications to sparse approximation of PDEs with stochastic inputs
Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.
A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization
Not Available
The Single Column Atmosphere Model Version 6 (SCAM6): Not a Scam but a Tool for Model Evaluation and Development
The Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) is a single column model version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Here we describe the functionality and features of SCAM6, available as part of CAM6 in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). SCAM6 features a wide selection of standard cases, as well as the ability to easily configure a case specified by the user based on a particular point in a CAM 3-D simulation. This work illustrates how SCAM6 reproduces CAM6 results for physical parameterizations, mostly of moisture and clouds. We demonstrate how SCAM6 can be used for model development through different physics selections, as well as with parameter sweep experiments to highlight the sensitivity of cloud properties to the specification of the vapor deposition process in the cloud microphysics. Furthermore, we use SCAM6 to illustrate the sensitivity of CAM6 cloud radiative properties and precipitation to variable drop number (cloud microphysics properties). Finally, we illustrate how SCAM6 can be used to explore critical emergent processes such as cloud feedbacks and show that CAM6 cloud responses to surface warming in stratus and stratocumulus regimes are similar to those in CAM5. CAM6 has a larger response in the shallow cumulus regime than CAM5. CAM6 cloud feedbacks in the shallow cumulus regime are sensitive to turbulence parameters. SCAM6 is thus a valuable tool for model development, evaluation, and scientific analy sis and an important part of the model hierarchy in Community Earth System Model, version 2.
The island coalescence problem: Scaling of reconnection in extended fluid models including higher-order moments
As modeling of collisionless magnetic reconnection in most space plasmas with realistic parameters is beyond the capability of today's simulations, due to the separation between global and kinetic length scales, it is important to establish scaling relations in model problems so as to extrapolate to realistic scales. Recently, large scale particle-in-cell simulations of island coalescence have shown that the time averaged reconnection rate decreases with system size, while fluid systems at such large scales in the Hall regime have not been studied. Here, we perform the complementary resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), Hall MHD, and two fluid simulations using a ten-moment model with the same geometry. In contrast to the standard Harris sheet reconnection problem, Hall MHD is insufficient to capture the physics of the reconnection region. Additionally, motivated by the results of a recent set of hybrid simulations which show the importance of ion kinetics in this geometry, we evaluate the efficacy of the ten-moment model in reproducing such results.
Modelling of pathologies of the nervous system by the example of computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems
The paper puts forward principles of action of devices operating similarly to the nervous system and the brain of biological systems. We propose an alternative method of studying diseases of the nervous system, which may significantly influence prevention, medical treatment, or at least retardation of development of these diseases. This alternative is to use computational and electronic models of the nervous system. Within this approach, we represent the brain in the form of a huge electrical circuit composed of active units, namely, neuron-like units and connections between them. As a result, we created computational and electronic models of elementary nervous systems, which are based on the principles of functioning of biological nervous systems that we have put forward. Our models demonstrate reactions to external stimuli and their change similarly to the behavior of simplest biological organisms. The models possess the ability of self-training and retraining in real time without human intervention and switching operation/training modes. In our models, training and memorization take place constantly under the influence of stimuli on the organism. Training is without any interruption and switching operation modes. Training and formation of new reflexes occur by means of formation of new connections between excited neurons, between which formation of connections is physically possible. Connections are formed without external influence. They are formed under the influence of local causes. Connections are formed between outputs and inputs of two neurons, when the difference between output and input potentials of excited neurons exceeds a value sufficient to form a new connection. On these grounds, we suggest that the proposed principles truly reflect mechanisms of functioning of biological nervous systems and the brain. In order to confirm the correspondence of the proposed principles to biological nature, we carry out experiments for the study of processes of formation of connections between neurons in simplest biological objects. Based on the correspondence of function of the created models to function of biological nervous systems we suggest the use of computational and electronic models of the brain for the study of its function under normal and pathological conditions, because operating principles of the models are built on principles imitating the function of biological nervous systems and the brain.
Integrated modeling of cryogenic layered highfoot experiments at the NIF
Integrated radiation hydrodynamic modeling in two dimensions, including the hohlraum and capsule, of layered cryogenic HighFoot Deuterium-Tritium (DT) implosions on the NIF successfully predicts important data trends. The model consists of a semi-empirical fit to low mode asymmetries and radiation drive multipliers to match shock trajectories, one dimensional inflight radiography, and time of peak neutron production. Application of the model across the HighFoot shot series, over a range of powers, laser energies, laser wavelengths, and target thicknesses predicts the neutron yield to within a factor of two for most shots. The Deuterium-Deuterium ion temperatures and the DT down scattered ratios, ratio of (10–12)/(13–15) MeV neutrons, roughly agree with data at peak fuel velocities <340 km/s and deviate at higher peak velocities, potentially due to flows and neutron scattering differences stemming from 3D or capsule support tent effects. These calculations show a significant amount alpha heating, 1–2.5× for shots where the experimental yield is within a factor of two, which has been achieved by increasing the fuel kinetic energy. This level of alpha heating is consistent with a dynamic hot spot model that is matched to experimental data and as determined from scaling of the yield with peak fuel velocity. Lastly, these calculations also show that low mode asymmetries become more important as the fuel velocity is increased, and that improving these low mode asymmetries can result in an increase in the yield by a factor of several.
Gas Gun Model and Comparison to Experimental Performance of Pipe Guns Operating with Light Propellant Gases and Large Cryogenic Pellets
Injection of multiple large (~10 to 30 mm diameter) shattered pellets into ITER plasmas is presently part of the scheme planned to mitigate the deleterious effects of disruptions on the vessel components. To help in the design and optimize performance of the pellet injectors for this application, a model referred to as “the gas gun simulator” has been developed and benchmarked against experimental data. The computer code simulator is a Java program that models the gas-dynamics characteristics of a single-stage gas gun. Following a stepwise approach, the code utilizes a variety of input parameters to incrementally simulate and analyze the dynamics of the gun as the projectile is launched down the barrel. Using input data, the model can calculate gun performance based on physical characteristics, such as propellant-gas and fast-valve properties, barrel geometry, and pellet mass. Although the model is fundamentally generic, the present version is configured to accommodate cryogenic pellets composed of H2, D2, Ne, Ar, and mixtures of them and light propellant gases (H2, D2, and He). The pellets are solidified in situ in pipe guns that consist of stainless steel tubes and fast-acting valves that provide the propellant gas for pellet acceleration (to speeds ~200 to 700 m/s). The pellet speed is the key parameter in determining the response time of a shattered pellet system to a plasma disruption event. The calculated speeds from the code simulations of experiments were typically in excellent agreement with the measured values. With the gas gun simulator validated for many test shots and over a wide range of physical and operating parameters, it is a valuable tool for optimization of the injector design, including the fast valve design (orifice size and volume) for any operating pressure (~40 bar expected for the ITER application) and barrel length for any pellet size (mass, diameter, and length). Key design parameters and proposed values for the pellet injectors for the ITER disruption mitigation systems are discussed.
EVOLUTION, NUCLEOSYNTHESIS, AND YIELDS OF AGB STARS AT DIFFERENT METALLICITIES. III. INTERMEDIATE-MASS MODELS, REVISED LOW-MASS MODELS, AND THE pH-FRUITY INTERFACE
We present a new set of models for intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars (4.0, 5.0, and 6.0 M{sub ⊙}) at different metallicities (−2.15 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ +0.15). This set integrates the existing models for low-mass AGB stars (1.3 ≤ M/M{sub ⊙} ≤ 3.0) already included in the FRUITY database. We describe the physical and chemical evolution of the computed models from the main sequence up to the end of the AGB phase. Due to less efficient third dredge up episodes, models with large core masses show modest surface enhancements. This effect is due to the fact that the interpulse phases are short and, therefore, thermal pulses (TPs) are weak. Moreover, the high temperature at the base of the convective envelope prevents it from deeply penetrating the underlying radiative layers. Depending on the initial stellar mass, the heavy element nucleosynthesis is dominated by different neutron sources. In particular, the s-process distributions of the more massive models are dominated by the {sup 22}Ne(α,n){sup 25}Mg reaction, which is efficiently activated during TPs. At low metallicities, our models undergo hot bottom burning and hot third dredge up. We compare our theoretical final core masses to available white dwarf observations. Moreover, we quantify the influence intermediate-mass models have on the carbon star luminosity function. Finally, we present the upgrade of the FRUITY web interface, which now also includes the physical quantities of the TP-AGB phase for all of the models included in the database (ph-FRUITY)
Calculations of inflaton decays and reheating: with applications to no-scale inflation models
We discuss inflaton decays and reheating in no-scale Starobinsky-like models of inflation, calculating the effective equation-of-state parameter, w, during the epoch of inflaton decay, the reheating temperature, T{sub reh}, and the number of inflationary e-folds, N{sub ∗}, comparing analytical approximations with numerical calculations. We then illustrate these results with applications to models based on no-scale supergravity and motivated by generic string compactifications, including scenarios where the inflaton is identified as an untwisted-sector matter field with direct Yukawa couplings to MSSM fields, and where the inflaton decays via gravitational-strength interactions. Finally, we use our results to discuss the constraints on these models imposed by present measurements of the scalar spectral index n{sub s} and the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r, converting them into constraints on N{sub ∗}, the inflaton decay rate and other parameters of specific no-scale inflationary models.
A marked correlation function for constraining modified gravity models
Future large scale structure surveys will provide increasingly tight constraints on our cosmological model. These surveys will report results on the distance scale and growth rate of perturbations through measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Redshift-Space Distortions. It is interesting to ask: what further analyses should become routine, so as to test as-yet-unknown models of cosmic acceleration? Models which aim to explain the accelerated expansion rate of the Universe by modifications to General Relativity often invoke screening mechanisms which can imprint a non-standard density dependence on their predictions. This suggests density-dependent clustering as a `generic' constraint. This paper argues that a density-marked correlation function provides a density-dependent statistic which is easy to compute and report and requires minimal additional infrastructure beyond what is routinely available to such survey analyses. We give one realization of this idea and study it using low order perturbation theory. We encourage groups developing modified gravity theories to see whether such statistics provide discriminatory power for their models.
Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison
To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.
Constructing Surrogate Models of Complex Systems with Enhanced Sparsity: Quantifying the influence of conformational uncertainty in biomolecular solvation
Biomolecules exhibit conformational fluctuations near equilibrium states, inducing uncertainty in various biological properties in a dynamic way. We have developed a general method to quantify the uncertainty of target properties induced by conformational fluctuations. Using a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion, we construct a surrogate model of the target property with respect to varying conformational states. We also propose a method to increase the sparsity of the gPC expansion by defining a set of conformational “active space” random variables. With the increased sparsity, we employ the compressive sensing method to accurately construct the surrogate model. We demonstrate the performance of the surrogate model by evaluating fluctuation-induced uncertainty in solvent-accessible surface area for the bovine trypsin inhibitor protein system and show that the new approach offers more accurate statistical information than standard Monte Carlo approaches. Further more, the constructed surrogate model also enables us to directly evaluate the target property under various conformational states, yielding a more accurate response surface than standard sparse grid collocation methods. In particular, the new method provides higher accuracy in high-dimensional systems, such as biomolecules, where sparse grid performance is limited by the accuracy of the computed quantity of interest. Our new framework is generalizable and can be used to investigate the uncertainty of a wide variety of target properties in biomolecular systems.
Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models
Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.
Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective
Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.