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At least 793 records · Page 44

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DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Gentz, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Model reference adaptive control of flexible robots in the presence of sudden load changes

Direct command generator tracker based model reference adaptive control (MRAC) algorithms are applied to the dynamics for a flexible-joint arm in the presence of sudden load changes. Because of the need to satisfy a positive real condition, such MRAC procedures are designed so that a feedforward augmented output follows the reference model output, thus, resulting in an ultimately bounded rather than zero output error. Thus, modifications are suggested and tested that: (1) incorporate feedforward into the reference model's output as well as the plant's output, and (2) incorporate a derivative term into only the process feedforward loop. The results of these simulations give a response with zero steady state model following error, and thus encourage further use of MRAC for more complex flexibile robotic systems.

Steinvorth, Rodrigo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Finite Element Modeling of Extravehicular Mobility Units for Use With Human Body Models – Motivation, Major Challenges, Use Cases and Preliminary Work

Finite element modeling of pressurized spacesuits and implementation with human body models offers many advantages over physical experimentation, but also presents significant challenges. A model of pressurized spacesuit softgoods was developed, integrated with an existing hardgoods model, and fitted to a human body model. Two representative loading scenarios were simulated: dynamic external suit loading and internal occupant-driven loading, to serve as proof-of-concept for the modeling techniques employed. The modeled interactions behaved as intended and illustrate that finite element models of pressurized spacesuits can be used in conjunction with human body models to assess the biomechanical behavior. Further model development and experimental validation are needed.

Finite Element↗

NASA NTRS2024

Finite Element Modeling of Extravehicular Mobility Units for Use With Human Body Models – Motivation, Major Challenges, Use Cases and Preliminary Work

Finite Element↗

NASA NTRS2003

Airport Pricing Strategies

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various downward adjustments in welfare maximizing tolls may well cause the optimal values of these to be negative. Insofar as subsidization is considered unacceptable for whichever reason, our results warn that the most efficient among the non-negative tolls may actually be a zero toll; the pure congestion toll may actually decrease welfare compared to the base case. The model in this paper contains a few simplifying assumptions that may be relaxed in future work. Load factors and aircraft capacity are fixed in this model for simplicity. In a more advanced version of this model, load factors and aircraft capacity can be endogenized. This makes the derivation of the optimality conditions far more complicated, but it should be feasible in a numerical experiment. One can also add a fourth layer to the model, describing the airport's optimization problem. For example, the airport can maximize profits under a cost recovery constraint. The model then deals with interactions between four types of agents. No distinction is made between peak and off-peak traffic in this paper. Finally, the results of the numerical exercise in this paper need to be checked against an asymmetric equilibrium.

Pels, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimating lithospheric properties at Atla Regio, Venus

Magellan spehrical harmonic gravity and topography models are used to estimate lithospheric properties at Alta Regio, Venus, a proposed hotspot with dynamic support from mantle plume(s). Global spherical harmonic and local representations of the gravity field share common properties in the Atla region interms of their spectral behavior over a wavelength band from approximately 2100 to approximately 700 km. The estimated free-air admittance spectrum displays a rather featureless long-wavelength portion followed by a sharp rise at wavelengths shorter than about 1000 km. This sharp rise requires significant flexural support of short-wavelength structures. The Bouguer coherence also displays a sharp drop in this wavelength band, indicating a finite flexural rigidity of the lithosphere. A simple model for lithospheric loading from above and below is introduced (D. W. Forsyth, 1985) with four parameters: f, the ratio of bottom loading to top loading; z(sub m), crustal thickness; z(sub l) depth to bottom loading source; and T(sub e) elastic lithosphere thickness. A dual-mode compensation model is introduced in which the shorter wavelengths (lambda approximately less than 1000 km) might be explained best by a predominance of top loading by the large shield volcanoes Maat Mons, Ozza Mons, and Sapas Mons, and the longer wavelengths (lambda approximately greater than 1500 km) might be explained best by a deep depth of compensation, possibly representing bottom loading by a dynamic source. A Monte Carlo inversion technique is introduced to thoroughly search out the four-space of the model parameters and to examine parameter correlation in the solutions. Venus either is a considerabe deficient in heat sources relative to Earth, or the thermal lithosphere is overthickened in response to an earlier episode of significant heat loss from the planet.

Phillips, Roger J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limits on the Range and Rate of Change in Power Take-Off Load in Ocean Wave Energy Conversion: A Study Using Model Predictive Control

Previous work comparing power take-off (PTO) architectures for ocean wave-powered reverse osmosis suggests that variable displacement in the wave energy converter (WEC)-driven pump does not offer a significant performance advantage. A limitation of that study is that the WEC was subject to a constant load within a given sea state (“Coulomb damping”) and did not account for controlled, moment-to-moment variation of the PTO load enabled by a variable displacement pump. This study explores the potential performance advantage of a variable PTO load over Coulomb damping. Model predictive control is used to provide optimal load control with constraints on the PTO load. The constraints include minimum and maximum loads and a limit on the rate of load adjustment. Parameter studies on these constraints enable conclusions about PTO design requirements in addition to providing an estimated performance advantage over Coulomb damping. Numerical simulation of the Oyster 1 WEC is carried out with performance weighted by historical sea state data from Humboldt Bay, CA. The results show a performance advantage of up to 20% higher yearly-average power absorption over Coulomb damping. Additionally, the parameter studies suggest that the PTO load should be adjustable down to at least 25% of the maximum load and should be adjustable between the minimum and maximum loads within a few seconds.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Forecasting of Thermostatic and Residential Loads Using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

Internet of Things (IoT) devices in smart grids enable intelligent energy management for grid managers and personalized energy services for consumers. Investigating a smart grid with IoT devices requires a simulation framework with IoT devices modeling. However, there lack comprehensive study on the modeling of IoT devices in smart grids. This paper investigates the IoT device modeling of a thermostatic load and implements the recurrent neural networks model for short-term load forecasting in this IoT-based thermostatic load. The recurrent neural network structure is leveraged to build a load forecasting model on temporal correlation. The temporal recurrent neural network layers including long short-term memory cells are employed to learn the data from both the simulation platform and New South Wales residential datasets. The simulation results are provided for demonstration.

electric load forecasting↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computational structures technology at Grumman: Current practice/future needs

The current practice for the design analysis of new airframe structural systems is to construct a master finite element model of the vehicle in order to develop internal load distributions. The inputs to this model include the geometry which is taken directly from CADAM and CATIA structural layout and aerodynamic loads and mass distribution computer models. This master model is sufficiently detailed to define major load paths and for the computation of dynamic mode shapes and structural frequencies, but not detailed enough to define local stress gradients and notch stresses. This master model is then used to perform structural optimization studies that will provide minimum weights for major structural members. The post-processed output from the master model, load, stress, and strain analysis is then used by structural analysts to perform detailed stress analysis of local regions in order to design local structure with all its required details. This local analysis consists of hand stress analysis and life prediction analysis with the assistance of manuals, design charts, computer stress and structural life analysis and sometimes finite element or boundary element analysis. The resulting design is verified by fatigue tests.

Pifko, Allan B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

AlphaBuilding - Synthetic Buildings Operation Dataset

This is a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years' historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants' diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

AlphaBuilding↗

NASA NTRS1986

A global-local approach to solving vibration of large truss structures

A global-local approach was proposed to solve dynamic problems involving truss beams. A continuum Timoshenko beam was used to model sections of truss beams wherever possible and accurate. Near applied loads the continuum model was not adequate and detailed truss finite elements (discrete model) were employed. This approach was also proven efficient for an odd-shaped truss structure connected to a truss beam. Between the continuum model and the discrete model, compatibility conditions were derived.

Sun, C. T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Influence of analysis and design models on minimum weight design

The results of numerical experiments designed to illustrate how the minimum weight design, accuracy, and cost can be influenced by: (1) refinement of the finite element analysis model and associated load path problems, and (2) refinement of the design variable linking model are examined. The numerical experiments range from simple structures where the modelling decisions are relatively obvious and less costly to the more complex structures where such decisions are less obvious and more costly. All numerical experiments used employ the dual formulation in ACCESS-3 computer program. Guidelines are suggested for creating analysis and design models that predict a minimum weight structure with greater accuracy and less cost. These guidelines can be useful in an interactive optimization environment and in the design of heuristic rules for the development of knowledge-based expert optimization systems.

Salama, M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Lunar crane system

In many lunar construction scenarios, mechanical cranes in some form will be indispensible in moving large masses around with various degrees of fine positioning. While thorough experience exists in the use of terrestrial cranes new thinking is required about the design of cranes to be used in extraterrestrial construction. The primary driving force for this new thinking is the need to automate the crane system so that space cranes can be operated as telerobotic machines with a large number of automatic capabilities. This is true because in extraterrestrial construction human resources will need to be critically rationed. The design problems of mechanisms and control systems for a lunar crane must deal with at least two areas of performance. First, the automated crane must be capable of maneuvering a large mass, so that when the mass arrives at the target position there are only small vibrations. Secondly, any residue vibrations must be automatically damped out and a fine positioning must be achieved. For extraterrestrial use there are additional challenges to a crane design - for example, to design a crane system so that it can be transformed for other construction uses. This initial project in crane design does not address such additional issues, although they may be the subject of future CSC research. To date the Center has designed and analyzed many mechanisms. The fundamental problem of trade-offs between passively stabilizing the load and actively controlling the load by actuators was extensively studied. The capability of 3D dynamics modeling now exists for such studies. A scaled model of a lunar crane was set up and it has been most fruitful in providing basic understanding of lunar cranes. Due to an interesting scaling match-up, this scaled model exhibits the load vibration frequencies one would expect in the real lunar case. Using the analytical results achieved to date, a laboratory crane system is now being developed as a test bed for verifying a wide variety of mechanisms and control designs. Future development will be aimed at making the crane system a telerobotic test bed into which external sensors such as computer vision systems, and other small robotic devices such as CSC lunar rovers, will be integrated.

Mikulas, Martin M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hindlimb unloading rodent model: technical aspects

Since its inception at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center in the mid-1970s, many laboratories around the world have used the rat hindlimb unloading model to simulate weightlessness and to study various aspects of musculoskeletal loading. In this model, the hindlimbs of rodents are elevated to produce a 30 degrees head-down tilt, which results in a cephalad fluid shift and avoids weightbearing by the hindquarters. Although several reviews have described scientific results obtained with this model, this is the first review to focus on the technical aspects of hindlimb unloading. This review includes a history of the technique, a brief comparison with spaceflight data, technical details, extension of the model to mice, and other important technical considerations (e.g., housing, room temperature, unloading angle, the potential need for multiple control groups, age, body weight, the use of the forelimb tissues as internal controls, and when to remove animals from experiments). This paper is intended as a reference for researchers, reviewers of manuscripts, and institutional animal care and use committees. Over 800 references, related to the hindlimb unloading model, can be accessed via the electronic version of this article.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation, Analysis, and Application of Internal Strain-Gage Balance Data

Experimental processes, analytical methods, and numerical algorithms are described that may be used to predict the forces and moments of an internal strain-gage balance during a wind tunnel test. First, the control volume model of a strain-gage balance and the concepts of load state, load space, and output space are introduced. These important abstractions provide a better understanding of fundamental characteristics of different balance load prediction approaches. Then, the description of strain-gage balance data and the definition of the primary gage sensitivity is discussed. Afterwards, basic elements of the calibration of a typical six-component balance are reviewed. Two fundamentally different balance load prediction methods, the processing of check loads, and related topics are also discussed. Three real-world balance data examples are reviewed in great detail to illustrate typical analysis results for a variety of strain-gage balance designs. Finally, important observations are summarized and recommendations are provided. Additional information and detailed mathematical derivations can be found in the appendices of the document. They include the following topics: balance terminology, definitions of important statistical metrics, balance axis system conventions, balance load transformations, the combined load diagram, electrical output format options, bi-directional gage output characteristics, determination of the natural zeros, derivation of two balance load prediction methods, description of two tare load iteration algorithms, modeling of balance temperature effects, basics of three-component moment balances, definition of the percent contribution, detection of linear and near-linear dependencies in balance calibration data, a regression model term selection algorithm, and other related topics.

wind tunnel test↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computational structures technology engine/airframe coupling

Many aspects of engine/airframe coupling which are related to structures are examined. The generation and analysis is studied of full 3-D engine structures with regard to the design and operation of the engine under static load conditions. However, several problems arose which required the use of the three dimensional models under dynamic loads to more fully understand what was happening. Full 3-D engine structural models have been used on a regular basis to help understand dynamics related problems. One such problem, addressed herein, is engine related aircraft vibration. Engine related aircraft vibration is noise within the fuselage of the aircraft which can be both felt and heard. To effectively predict engine related aircraft vibration, the entire engine/airframe must be treated as a system.

Mcclintick, Bruce C.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Dynamic power load simulator

Two independent models simulate dynamic and steady-state responses of electrical and electronic equipment under power load. One is resistance/capacitance/inductance network, and the other is variable resistance analog device. Resistance, inductance, and/or capacitance are selected by iterative process; time-domain response is compared with that of real equipment to select optimal values.

Joncas, K. P.↗