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At least 793 records · Page 44

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

The Impact of Atmospheric Dynamics and Anthropogenic Very Short-Lived Chlorine Species on the Recovery of Extra-Polar Ozone

The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances and a slowing in the destruction of the ozone layer. Previous studies have suggested that atmospheric dynamics, or a rise in compounds not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, such as very short-lived chlorine species (VSL Cl), may lead to a slower than expected recovery of the ozone layer. In this presentation, we examine the expected recovery of total column ozone (TCO) and stratospheric column ozone (SCO) to values observed in 1980 using a novel multiple linear regression (MLR) model that involves a month-by-month regression. The MLR model is trained to TCO anomalies from six data records (SBUV v8.7 MOD, SBUV v8.6 COH, WOUDC, GSG, GTO-ECV, MSR-2) over 1979 to 2021 for the Northern Hemisphere (35N – 60N), the Southern Hemisphere (60S – 35S) and the Tropics (20S – 20N), and SCO anomalies from ML-TOMCAT for these same zonal bands. The MLR includes the effect of halogens (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)), total solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol optical depth, quasi-biennial oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as regressors. We also include the effect of atmospheric dynamics such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation, and VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC. We use a novel approach to the MLR framework, by separating the observed and regressor time series into the respective months (separating all of the Januarys, Februarys, etc.). Then we conduct a regression for each month from 1979 to 2021 for the three zonal bands denoted above. The model results for each month are combined together to achieve a full monthly time series from 1979 to 2021. We use this novel approach to ascertain the effect of atmospheric dynamics on TCO and SCO, since the dynamical proxies affect ozone in a distinctly different manner for various months. In this presentation, we will quantify the role of both the inclusion of VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC as well as atmospheric dynamics in explaining the slower than expected recovery of extra-polar TCO and SCO over the past decade.

Laura A. McBride↗

Can Remotely Sensed Snow Disappearance Explain Seasonal Water Supply?

Understanding the relationship between remotely sensed snow disappearance and seasonal water supply may become vital in coming years to supplement limited ground based, in situ measurements of snow in a changing climate. For the period 2001–2019, we investigated the relationship between satellite derived Day of Snow Disappearance (DSD)—the date at which snow has completely disappeared—and the seasonal water supply, i.e., the April—July total streamflow volume, for 15 snow dominated basins across the western U.S. A Monte Carlo framework was applied, using linear regression models to evaluate the predictive skill—defined here as a model’s ability to accurately predict seasonal flow volumes—of varied predictors, including DSD and in situ snow water equivalent (SWE), across a range of spring forecast dates. In all basins there is a statistically significant relationship between mean DSD and seasonal water supply (p ≤ 0.05), with mean DSD explaining roughly half of the variance. Satellite-based model skill improves later in the forecast season, surpassing the skill of in-situ-based (SWE) models in skill in 10 of the 15 basins by the latest forecast date. We found little to no correlation between model error and basin characteristics such as elevation and the ratio of snow water equivalent to total precipitation. Despite a relatively short data record, this exploratory analysis shows promise for improving seasonal water supply prediction, in particular for snow dominated basins lacking in situ observations.

snow remote sensing↗

An Updated Geomagnetic Index-Based Model for Determining the Latitudinal Extent of Energetic Electron Precipitation

Energetic Electron Precipitation (EEP) from the Earth's plasma sheet and the radiation belts is an important feature of atmospheric dynamics through their destruction of ozone in the lower thermosphere and mesosphere. Therefore, understanding the magnitude of the atmospheric impact of the Sun-Earth interaction requires a comprehensive understanding of the intensity and location of EEP. This study improves the accuracy of a previous pressure-corrected Dst model that predicts the equatorward extent of >43, >114, and >292 keV EEP using the measurements from the Medium Energy Proton Electron Detector detector of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and EUMETSAT/METOP satellites. The improvement is achieved through multiple linear regression of pressure-corrected Dst and pressure-corrected Ring Current (RC) indices. The RC index mitigates the baseline variation of the Dst index that created an inherent solar cycle bias in the previous model. The new model is then extended to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) after removing the South Atlantic Anomaly longitudes from the data. More than 80% of the residuals lie within ±1.8° Corrected Geomagnetic Latitude (CGMLat) in the Northern Hemisphere and within ±1.98° CGMLat in the SH.

E. M. Babu↗

Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedbacks

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.

J. C. Ryan↗

A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been contributing directly to sea level rise, and this contribution is projected to accelerate over the next decades. A crucial tool for studying the evolution of surface mass loss (e.g., surface mass balance, SMB) consists of regional climate models (RCMs), which can provide current estimates and future projections of sea level rise associated with such losses. However, one of the main limitations of RCMs is the relatively coarse horizontal spatial resolution at which outputs are currently generated. Here, we report results concerning the statistical downscaling of the SMB modeled by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCM from the original spatial resolution of 6 km to 100 m building on the relationship between elevation and mass losses in Greenland. To this goal, we developed a geospatial framework that allows the parallelization of the downscaling process, a crucial aspect to increase the computational efficiency of the algorithm. Using the results obtained in the case of the SMB, surface and air temperature are assessed through the comparison of the modeled outputs with in situ and satellite measurement. The downscaled products show a considerable improvement in the case of the downscaled product with respect to the original coarse output, with the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) increasing from 0.868 for the original MAR output to 0.935 for the SMB downscaled product. Moreover, the value of the slope and intercept of the linear regression fitting modeled and measured SMB values shifts from 0.865 for the original MAR to 1.015 for the downscaled product in the case of the slope and from the value −235 mm w.e. yr -1 (original) to −57 mm w.e. yr -1 (downscaled) in the case of the intercept, considerably improving upon results previously published in the literature.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗

Cloud and Precipitation Analyses using Merged Datasets from Two Airborne Microwave Radiometers Covering 10–183 GHz

Microwave radiometers provide valuable insight into the structure and characteristics of clouds and precipitation. In NASA’s airborne remote-sensing arsenal, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) and the Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) have been used extensively in field campaigns throughout the world. AMPR operates with four channels between 10.7 and 85.5 GHz, while CoSMIR operates with nine channels ranging from 50.3 to 183.31 GHz. Although these datasets provide key information when used separately, the combination of these radiometers covers virtually the full range of frequencies used by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), enabling suborbital observations to compare with GPM spaceborne measurements. This presentation will detail the merger of AMPR and CoSMIR data during two NASA airborne field campaigns: the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) and the Olympic Mountains Experiment / Radar Definition Experiment (OLYMPEX/RADEX). Other field campaigns, such as the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS), may be included as well. Using the merged brightness temperature dataset, features of precipitating and non-precipitating clouds containing liquid and/or ice hydrometeors will be discussed from selected flight segments. Geophysical retrievals derived from these brightness temperatures using a one-dimensional variational (1DVAR) technique and/or multi-linear regression equations will also be employed in these analyses. Observed transitions between precipitating and non-precipitating systems will be explored in greater detail. Dropsonde data will be used to provide environmental contexts throughout each flight, and additional observations (e.g., from airborne and/or land-based radar) will be incorporated to supplement the radiometer-based results. The broader implications of these results and pathways for future work will also be discussed.

Corey G. Amiot↗

Solar Activity Relations in Energetic Electron Events Measured By the MESSENGER Mission

Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.

Sun↗

Low-Cost Sensor Performance Intercomparison, Correction Factor Development, and 2+ Years of Ambient PM2.5 Monitoring in Accra, Ghana

Particulate matter air pollution is a leading cause of global mortality, particularly in Asia and Africa. Addressing the high and wide-ranging air pollution levels requires ambient monitoring, but many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain scarcely monitored. To address these data gaps, recent studies have utilized low-cost sensors. These sensors have varied performance, and little literature exists about sensor intercomparison in Africa. By colocating 2 QuantAQ Modulair-PM, 2 PurpleAir PA-II SD, and 16 Clarity Node-S Generation II monitors with a reference-grade Teledyne monitor in Accra, Ghana, we present the first intercomparisons of different brands of low-cost sensors in Africa, demonstrating that each type of low-cost sensor PM2.5 is strongly correlated with reference PM2.5, but biased high for ambient mixture of sources found in Accra. When compared to a reference monitor, the QuantAQ Modulair-PM has the lowest mean absolute error at 3.04 μg/m3, followed by PurpleAir PA-II (4.54 μg/m3) and Clarity Node-S (13.68 μg/m3). We also compare the usage of 4 statistical or machine learning models (Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gaussian Mixture Regression, and XGBoost) to correct low-cost sensors data, and find that XGBoost performs the best in testing (R2: 0.97, 0.94, 0.96; mean absolute error: 0.56, 0.80, and 0.68 μg/m3 for PurpleAir PA-II, Clarity Node-S, and Modulair-PM, respectively), but tree-based models do not perform well when correcting data outside the range of the colocation training. Therefore, we used Gaussian Mixture Regression to correct data from the network of 17 Clarity Node-S monitors deployed around Accra, Ghana, from 2018 to 2021. We find that the network daily average PM2.5 concentration in Accra is 23.4 μg/m3, which is 1.6 times the World Health Organization Daily PM2.5 guideline of 15 μg/m3. While this level is lower than those seen in some larger African cities (such as Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo), mitigation strategies should be developed soon to prevent further impairment to air quality as Accra, and Ghana as a whole, rapidly grow.

Humidity↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

Jemez Pueblo Agriculture: Monitoring Rangeland Conditions to Inform Drought and Land Management in New Mexico

The Jemez Pueblo, a community located in the semi-arid high desert region of northcentral New Mexico, faces challenges with drought mitigation and livestock management. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Pueblo of Jemez Natural Resources Department and The Nature Conservancy to provide recent and historical rangeland conditions to aid present decision-making, which relies on cultural practices, site familiarity, available resources, and physical data. This partnership offers the opportunity to support management practices by leveraging remote sensing and virtual fencing technologies. Our project explored Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) products incorporating NASA Earth observation Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI-2 remote-sensed imagery as an agricultural land management tool. We performed linear regression analysis to evaluate RAP data to field data and explored RAP annual herbaceous biomass, ground cover trends, and climatic factors at the pasture level. We then computed study area summary statistics, performed pixel-by-pixel trend analysis across the study period, and evaluated ground cover trends near water sources. Based on available data, RAP was poorly correlated to bare ground and herbaceous biomass, generally underestimating the former and overestimating the latter. To improve the evaluation of RAP products, we suggest increasing the spatiotemporal distribution of the field dataset. According to RAP, from 1986 to 2023, the site became hotter and drier, bare ground increased, and annual forbs and grasses increased while perennials decreased. RAP products did not agree with field-collected data; however, the trends over time may be useful for informing rangeland management actions.

cattle grazing management↗

Urban Air Quality Management at Low-Cost Using Micro Air Sensors: A Case Study From Accra, Ghana

Urban air quality management is dependent on the availability of local air pollution data. In many major urban centers of Africa, there is limited to non-existent information on air quality. This is gradually changing in part due to the increasing use of micro air sensors which have the potential to enable the generation of ground-based air quality data at fine scales for understanding local emission trends. Regional literature on the application of the high-resolution data for emission source identification in this region is limited. In this study a micro air sensor was co-located at the Physics Department, University of Ghana with a reference grade instrument to evaluate its performance for estimating PM2.5 pollution accurately at fine scales and the value of this data in identification of local sources and their behavior over time. For this study 15 weeks of data at hourly resolution with approximately 2500 data pairs are generated and analyzed (June 01, 2023, to September 15, 2023). For this time period a coefficient of determination (r 2 ) of 0.83 was generated with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.44 μgm -3 between the pre local calibration micro air sensor (i.e. out of box) and the reference-grade instrument. Following currently accepted best practice methods (see e.g., PAS4023) a domain specific (i.e. local) calibration factor was generated using a multi-linear regression model and when this factor is applied to the micro air sensor data, a reduction i.e., improvement in MAE to 1.43 μgm -3 was found. Daily variation was calculated, a receptor model was applied, and time series plots as a function of wind direction were generated, including PM2.5/PM10 ratio scatter and count plots to explore the utility of this observational approach for local source identification. The 3 data sets were compared (out of box, domain calibrated and reference-grade) and it was found that although there were variations in the data reported, source areas highlighted based on these data were similar, with input from local sources such as traffic emissions and biomass burning. As the temporal resolution of observational data associated with these micro air sensors is higher than for reference grade instruments (primarily due to costs and logistics limitations), they have the potential to provide insight into the complex, often hyper localized sources associated with urban areas, such as those found in major African cities.

Source apportionment↗

Analysis and Validation of Spectral Irradiance Simulations for 75 kW Bifacial Solar Test Field

This work investigates how the spectrum of irradiance incident on the rear of bifacial modules impacts their performance. Light incident on the rear of bifacial modules can be reflected from the ground, mounting structures, and other nearby objects, causing both the intensity and spectrum to be modified. As a result, PV cells and sensors with different spectral responses report different values for the rear irradiance, leading to increased uncertainty when modeling performance. Here, we calculate the spectral irradiance incident on the rear of modules through raytrace simulations and validate with measured field data collected from a 75kW single-axis-tracked bifacial test site. Spectral responses for different sensors and PV cells are applied and compared with field measurements for four days. Based on these results, a method for improving non-spectral simulations is proposed. In addition, a linear regression is applied to the modeled spectral results as a method to gain insight into the contributions of ground reflected light to total rear irradiance.

bifacial photovoltaics↗

VERIFICATION OF TRISO FUEL BURNUP USING MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

Pebble Bed Reactors are fueled with fuel pebbles that are circulated multiple times through the reactor vessel before discharge. During the normal operation of a PBR, ejected pebbles are returned to the reactor or discharged depending on the fuel burnup and physical condition of the pebbles. The burnup measurement is usually based on detected radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over burnup. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134Cs, 137Cs, 154Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values. We propose to use machine learning (ML) method to interpret gamma-ray spectra and predict the burnup values of the pebbles. ML has achieved widespread success and adoption across a few domains that require pattern recognition and analysis in varied data types. In this work, we apply three proven ML approaches - multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and transformers - to the task of predicting fuel burnup from measured gamma spectra, and compile a dataset of simulated spectra for training and validation of the ML models. In this paper, we will discuss the network architecture of these three ML approaches and compare the performance of the simplest of these (MLP) to a standard linear regression.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗

The Construction of Reduced Order Models for the HYBRID Repository

Reduced order models (ROMs) present an opportunity to reduce the computational burden of IES analysis using HYBRID models without significantly sacrificing data accuracy. Other applications of ROMs are digital twins, stochastic optimization studies, model exporting, and protection of proprietary information. In this paper the capability of creating ROMs of the models within the HYBRID repository will be demonstrated. Specifically, a linear regression ROM of a gas turbine and a dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) ROM of a lithium-ion battery are constructed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

In this work, the previously demonstrated capability of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity has been extended to monitor the humidity, CH4, and CO2 with different gas composition based on the strain produced along the single mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases on to the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different humidity conditions, while the unjacketed portion of the fiber was used only for sensing pressure/temperature induced strain. In case of N2 at 800 psig pressure, the observed microstrain was approximately 80, 65, 50 and 35 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, and 23.4 RH% respectively. Comparatively, a microstrain of approximately 95 µε was observed with 100% RH CH4 which demonstrates that SMF produces a measurable CH4 response alongside water. Similarly, the observed microstrain with CO2 was approximately 105, 90, 85, 80, and 70 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, 23.4, and 0 RH% respectively. Linear regression and principal component analysis of these dataset provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, CH4, and CO2 enabling good cross sensitivity. Additionally, modified OFS comprising of Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion, using Fe as corrosion proxy, under harsh corrosive environment.

Mainali, Badri↗