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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Mixed‐Phase Open Cellular Clouds Observed During COMBLE: Evaluation of Parameterized Turbulence Closure

Marine cold-air outbreaks, or CAOs, are airmass transformations whereby relatively cold boundary layer (BL) air is transported over relatively warm water. To more deeply understand BL and mixed-phase cloud properties during CAO conditions, the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) took place from late 2019 into early 2020. During COMBLE, the U.S. Department of Energy's first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility (AMF1) was deployed to Andenes, Norway, far downstream (~1,000 km) from the Arctic pack ice. This study examines the two most intense CAOs sampled at the AMF1 site. The observed BL structures are open cellular with high (~3–5 km) and cold (–30 to –50 °C) cloud tops, and they often have pockets of high liquid water paths (LWPs; up to ~1,000 g m –2 ) associated with strong updrafts and enhanced turbulence. We use a high-resolution mesoscale model to explore how well four turbulence closure methods represent open cellular clouds. After applying a radar simulator to model outputs for direct evaluation, cloud top properties agree well with AMF1 observations (within ~10%), but radar reflectivity and LWP agreement is more variable. Results suggest that the turbulent Prandtl number may play an important role for the simulated BL and cloud properties. All simulations produce enhanced precipitation rates that are well-correlated with a cloud transition. Finally, the eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux approach produces the deepest cloud layer and therefore the largest and most coherent cellular structures. Furthermore, we recommend the use of a non-local turbulence closure approach to better capture turbulent processes in intense CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modulations of Atmospheric River Climatology by the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Abstract This study reveals the significant Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) influences on the seasonal atmospheric river (AR) climatology around the globe. The North Pacific (NP) AR climatology in the boreal winter to early fall seasons in a QBO easterly (QBOE) phase is systematically shifted poleward compared with those in a QBO westerly (QBOW) phase, and such difference peaks in the local late spring season. We also find the similar poleward shift for the AR climatology over the South Pacific (SP) in the austral winter seasons in the QBOE phase. A significant equatorward shift and an overall enhancement of the AR climatology over the SP are observed in the QBOE phase during local spring and summer seasons, respectively. The QBO impacts on the AR climatology over the Atlantic Ocean are less organized. Strong QBO impacts exist in almost all seasons for the North Atlantic AR but only in the austral spring season for the South Atlantic AR. These QBO modulations of the AR climatology over the ocean basins also change the season‐mean AR frequencies around coastal regions, suggesting significant QBO impacts on the local land‐falling AR events. The QBO modulations of the seasonal background mean states and the MJO‐teleconnections are two potential mechanisms mostly over the north hemisphere. The QBOE modulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)‐teleconnection over the northern hemisphere is asymmetric between the MJO convection over the Indian Ocean and that over the Pacific Ocean, which is the key to explain the QBO influences on the AR activity on the seasonal timescale.

Huang, Kai [U.S. National Science Foundation Natio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2026

Employing Machine Learning for New Particle Formation Identification and Mechanistic Analysis: Insights From a Six‐Year Observational Study in the Southern Great Plains

We present a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to automatically identify new particle formation (NPF) events and analyze key atmospheric factors associated with their occurrence and growth. We applied ML to detect NPF events using start time and particle concentrations across size ranges, while identifying atmospheric variables including ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity (SRI), wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height, total organics, sulfate, nitrate, total surface area concentration, sulfur dioxide, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). We analyzed a 6-year data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Using long-term ground-based measurements, we identified NPF events and applied Random Forest Classifiers, which achieved 90%–95% prediction accuracy. Feature importance analysis highlighted SRI, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the most influential variables, contributing normalized importances of 28%, 17%, and 10%. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) indicated that higher SRI and lower relative humidity were critical in promoting NPF formation at SGP. Seasonally, NPF events were more frequent in winter (42.1%) and spring (35.5%), and least in summer (4.0%). Particle growth rates also exhibited a seasonal variation, with the lowest in winter (below 2 nm hr −1 ) and highest in late spring and early summer (exceeding 5 nm hr −1 ). Temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, and aerosol properties were the primary factors of growth rate variability. This study advances predictive modeling of NPF, offers insights for future campaign deployments, and demonstrates the effectiveness of ML in understanding the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Eroding Permafrost Coastlines Release Biodegradable Dissolved Organic Carbon to the Arctic Ocean

Coastal erosion mobilizes large quantities of organic matter (OM) to the Arctic Ocean where it may fuel greenhouse gas emissions and marine production. While the biodegradability of permafrost-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been extensively studied in inland soils and freshwaters, few studies have examined dissolved OM (DOM) leached from eroding coastal permafrost in seawater. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled three horizons from bluff exposures near Drew Point, Alaska: seasonally thawed active layer soils, permafrost containing Holocene terrestrial and/or lacustrine OM, and permafrost containing late-Pleistocene marine-derived OM. Samples were leached in seawater to compare DOC yields, DOM composition (chromophoric DOM, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry), and biodegradable DOC (BDOC). Holocene terrestrial permafrost leached the most DOC compared to active layer soils and Pleistocene marine permafrost. However, DOC from Pleistocene marine permafrost was the most biodegradable (33 ± 6% over 90 days), followed by DOC from active layer soils (23 ± 5%) and Holocene terrestrial permafrost (14 ± 3%). Permafrost leachates contained relatively more aliphatic and peptide-like formulae, whereas active layer leachates contained relatively more aromatic formulae. BDOC was positively correlated with nitrogen-containing and aliphatic formulae, and negatively correlated with polyphenolic and condensed aromatic formulae. Using estimates of eroding OM, we scale our results to estimate DOC and BDOC inputs to the Alaska Beaufort Sea. While DOC inputs from coastal erosion are relatively small compared to rivers, our results suggest that erosion may be an important source of BDOC to the Beaufort Sea when river inputs are low.

Bristol, Emily M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eocene-Oligocene Metamorphism, Fluid Flow and Deformation in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range Metamorphic Core Complex

Metamorphic core complexes are ubiquitous in collapsed orogens globally and play a primary role in crustal exhumation. Here, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range metamorphic core complex, Nevada, using petrochronology to understand how magmatism, metamorphism and deformation interact to modulate crustal rheology, and the timing of exhumation within the Sevier orogenic belt. Field study, microstructural analysis, thermobarometry and laser ablation split-stream monazite, titanite and allanite petrochronology of the mylonitic footwall were integrated to elucidate the pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) evolution. Major-, trace-element and quartz-in-garnet thermobarometry show peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–6 kbar and 600–650°C across the study area. Monazite and titanite U-(Th)-Pb petrochronology constrain this episode of metamorphism to 88–81 Ma with the structurally deepest samples yielding dates down to ca. 71 Ma. The preservation of peak metamorphic mineral assemblages indicates these rocks remained at near-peak temperature conditions into the Cenozoic. Cenozoic metamorphism occurred during a punctuated episode contemporaneous with the Great Basin ignimbrite flare up. All samples show a distinct 39–37 Ma population of monazite, titanite and allanite dates that correlate with the emplacement of quartz diorite and gabbro intrusions throughout the footwall. Accessory phases contain zoning textures in backscattered electron images that are consistent with fluid-mediated dissolution-reprecipitation reactions. The U-(Th)-Pb analyses from these zones yield 39–27 Ma dates interpreted as the timing of fluid flow. The results of this study elucidate the integrated importance of magmatism, melting and fluid flow in driving the coupled evolution of Late Cretaceous metamorphism within the Sevier hinterland and the subsequent Cenozoic metamorphic core complex development that exhumed the middle crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Organic Matter Stabilization by Polyvalent Cations in a Buried Alkaline Soil

Buried paleosols can store large quantities of organic carbon (C), much of which persists for millennia due to isolation from surface processes that promote decomposition. Subsoil organic matter (SOM) persistence is often enhanced by mineral associations and ionic conditions—particularly high clay content and polyvalent cations—that limit microbial degradation and leaching. However, the vulnerability of these deep C stocks under erosion or environmental change remains poorly understood. This study investigates controls on SOM stabilization in the Brady paleosol and overlying modern soils across contrasting geomorphic settings in the Great Plains of Nebraska where Late Quaternary loess deposition and erosion created a sequence of buried and exposed paleosols. We sampled soils along burial and erosional toposequences and analyzed their physicochemical properties and radiocarbon‐based persistence of occluded particulate organic matter (oPOM) and mineral fractions (MF). Brady paleosol showed greater persistence (lower Fm) of oPOM and MF than modern soils, particularly under burial. This was linked to higher silt and clay content, elevated electrical conductivity, and increased exchangeable calcium and magnesium content, supporting roles for organo‐mineral interactions, flocculation, and carbonate cementation. In modern soils, SOM persistence and C content were more strongly tied to pH and cation exchange capacity. Erosional exposure reduced SOM stability and promoted geochemical convergence toward modern surface soils. These findings show that burial enhances SOM persistence via multiple stabilization mechanisms, while erosion increases subsoil C vulnerability. Our results underscore the importance of geomorphic and geochemical context in predicting soil C stability under environmental change.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinct Fracture Mineralogy That is Out of Equilibrium With Modern Groundwaters Provides Important Context for Subsurface Life

Rock fracture surfaces in the crust are essential habitat for microorganisms. Fracture‐groundwater interfaces provide physical substrates for biofilm growth and are sources of carbon, nutrients, and electron donors and acceptors. To better understand geochemical processes impacting fracture surfaces and the subsurface microbiome, we identified fractures in archived rock cores from the Soudan formation, which is known to host saline groundwaters and isolated microbial communities dependent on rock‐water interactions. Cores with open fractures were thin sectioned and studied via electron microprobe and synchrotron X‐ray fluorescence microprobe. Most fracture surfaces had mineralogy distinct from that of the bulk rock. Chlorite minerals were abundant on fracture surfaces and had elemental compositions suggesting deposition during late‐stage hydrothermal alteration. Fracture‐lining chlorites likely limit access to iron oxide and sulfide minerals that are active in subsurface biogeochemical cycles. Calcium‐rich rinds were also observed along fracture edges. These rinds were too thin and poorly ordered to be identified via light microscopy or X‐ray diffraction; however, Ca K‐edge micro‐X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure spectroscopy identified them as carbonates, minerals not observed in the bulk rock. Thermodynamic modeling shows that carbonate precipitation is largely unfavorable in Soudan groundwaters, indicating that fracture edge conditions differed from those in modern water samples. Because of the low carbon concentrations in Soudan groundwaters, carbonate rinds likely play an important role in subsurface carbon cycling and may mark fracture surfaces that once hosted biofilms. Overall, this study suggests that fracture alteration can both play an active role in and suppress rock‐water interactions essential to subsurface life.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological and Thermal Dynamics of a Supra‐Permafrost Subterranean Estuary

Subterranean estuaries (STEs), where groundwater interacts with seawater, influence surface and subsurface coastal ecology and biogeochemistry. In Arctic-STEs overlying permafrost, groundwater flow and heat transport determine the fate of organic matter. Yet, direct observations of groundwater flow and heat and solute transport processes in Arctic STEs remain limited. This study characterized groundwater flow paths and fluxes and heat transport within an Arctic-STE along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast during thawing, summer, and freeze-up. Intertidal seabed temperature-depth profiles collected along a 10-m transect captured the active groundwater flow period, from thaw and flow onset in mid-June to freeze-up in late-September. During this period, aquifer geometry evolved non-uniformly due to spatially varying thaw rates across the STE (mean (m) thaw depths–beach: 0.25 to 0.55–0.6 m on 20 June, 25 July, 1 October; seabed: 0.6–0.9 m from 25 July to 1 October). Groundwater and surface water levels, salinity, and subsurface temperature profiles measured over tidal time scales were interpreted alongside groundwater flow-heat transport numerical simulations. Fresh groundwater discharge was sporadic during thawing (m: 0.32 m 3 /day/m), abundant in summer (m: 0.45 m 3 /day/m), and was largely absent during freeze-up. During freeze-up, groundwater flow was driven exclusively by seawater recirculation via tidal pumping (from thawing to summer to freeze-up: 0.00025–0.15–0.5 m3/day/m) and convection. Heat advection dominated near aquatic interfaces (shaping intertidal ice), and conduction controlled vertical temperature gradients in low-flow and unsaturated sediments. These findings will help predict how prolonged summers will alter Arctic-STE cryo-hydrology and biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polysaccharide niche partitioning of distinct Polaribacter clades during North Sea spring algal blooms

Massive releases of organic substrates during marine algal blooms trigger growth of many clades of heterotrophic bacteria. Algal polysaccharides represent the most diverse and structurally complex class of these substrates, yet their role in shaping the microbial community composition is poorly understood. We investigated, whether polysaccharide utilization capabilities contribute to niche differentiation of Polaribacter spp. (class Flavobacteriia; known to include relevant polysaccharidedegraders) that were abundant during 2009–2012 spring algal blooms in the southern North Sea. We identified six distinct Polaribacter clades using phylogenetic and phylogenomic analyses, quantified their abundances via fluorescence in situ hybridization, compared metagenome-assembled genomes, and assessed in situ gene expression using metaproteomics. Four clades with distinct polysaccharide niches were dominating. Polaribacter 2-a comprised typical first responders featuring small genomes with limited polysaccharide utilization capacities. Polaribacter 3-a were abundant only in 2010 and possessed a distinct sulfated α-glucoronomannan degradation potential. Polaribacter 3-b responded late in blooms and had the capacity to utilize sulfated xylan. Polaribacter 1-a featured high numbers of glycan degradation genes and were particularly abundant following Chattonella algae blooms. These results support the hypothesis that sympatric Polaribacter clades occupy distinct glycan niches during North Sea spring algal blooms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Marine phytoplankton downregulate core photosynthesis and carbon storage genes upon rapid mixed layer shallowing

Marine phytoplankton are a diverse group of photoautotrophic organisms and key mediators in the global carbon cycle. Phytoplankton physiology and biomass accumulation are closely tied to mixed layer depth, but the intracellular metabolic pathways activated in response to changes in mixed layer depth remain less explored. Here, metatranscriptomics was used to characterize the phytoplankton community response to a mixed layer shallowing (from 233 to 5 m) over the course of two days during the late spring in the Northwest Atlantic. Most phytoplankton genera downregulated core photosynthesis, carbon storage, and carbon fixation genes as the system transitioned from a deep to a shallow mixed layer and shifted towards catabolism of stored carbon supportive of rapid cell growth. In contrast, phytoplankton genera exhibited divergent transcriptional patterns for photosystem light harvesting complex genes during this transition. Active virus infection, taken as the ratio of virus to host transcripts, increased in the Bacillariophyta (diatom) phylum and decreased in the Chlorophyta (green algae) phylum upon mixed layer shallowing. A conceptual model is proposed to provide ecophysiological context for our findings, in which integrated light limitation and lower division rates during transient deep mixing are hypothesized to disrupt resource-driven, oscillating transcript levels related to photosynthesis, carbon fixation, and carbon storage. Our findings highlight shared and unique transcriptional response strategies within phytoplankton communities acclimating to the dynamic light environment associated with transient deep mixing and shallowing events during the annual North Atlantic bloom.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intertwined density waves in a metallic nickelate

Nickelates are a rich class of materials, ranging from insulating magnets to superconductors. But for stoichiometric materials, insulating behavior is the norm, as for most late transition metal oxides. Notable exceptions are the 3D perovskite LaNiO 3 , an unconventional paramagnetic metal, and the layered Ruddlesden-Popper phases R 4 Ni 3 O 10 , (R = La, Pr, Nd). The latter are particularly intriguing because they exhibit an unusual metal-to-metal transition. Here, we demonstrate that this transition results from an incommensurate density wave with both charge and magnetic character that lies closer in its behavior to the metallic density wave seen in chromium metal than the insulating stripes typically found in single-layer nickelates like La 2-x Sr x NiO 4 . We identify these intertwined density waves as being Fermi surface-driven, revealing a novel ordering mechanism in this nickelate that reflects a coupling among charge, spin, and lattice degrees of freedom that differs not only from the single-layer materials, but from the 3D perovskites as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The erosion of biodiversity and biomass in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot

Tropical forests are being deforested worldwide, and the remaining fragments are suffering from biomass and biodiversity erosion. Quantifying this erosion is challenging because ground data on tropical biodiversity and biomass are often sparse. Here, we use an unprecedented dataset of 1819 field surveys covering the entire Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We show that 83-85% of the surveys presented losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value. On average, forest fragments have 25-32% less biomass, 23-31% fewer species, and 33, 36, and 42% fewer individuals of late-successional, large-seeded, and endemic species, respectively. Biodiversity and biomass erosion are lower inside strictly protected conservation units, particularly in large ones. We estimate that biomass erosion across the Atlantic Forest remnants is equivalent to the loss of 55-70 thousand km 2 of forests or US$2.3-2.6 billion in carbon credits. These figures have direct implications on mechanisms of climate change mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidized sulfur-rich arc magmas formed porphyry Cu deposits by 1.88 Ga

Most known porphyry Cu deposits formed in the Phanerozoic and are exclusively associated with moderately oxidized, sulfur-rich, hydrous arc-related magmas derived from partial melting of the asthenospheric mantle metasomatized by slab-derived fluids. Yet, whether similar metallogenic processes also operated in the Precambrian remains obscure. Here we address the issue by investigating the origin, fO 2 , and S contents of calc-alkaline plutonic rocks associated with the Haib porphyry Cu deposit in the Paleoproterozoic Richtersveld Magmatic Arc (southern Namibia), an interpreted mature island-arc setting. We show that the ca. 1886–1881 Ma ore-forming magmas, originated from a mantle-dominated source with minor crustal contributions, were relatively oxidized (1–2 log units above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz redox buffer) and sulfur-rich. These results indicate that moderately oxidized, sulfur-rich arc magma associated with porphyry Cu mineralization already existed in the late Paleoproterozoic, probably as a result of recycling of sulfate-rich seawater or sediments from the subducted oceanic lithosphere at that time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures

Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France’s ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗