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NASA NTRS1981

Relations among stellar X-ray emission observed from Einstein, stellar rotation and bolometric luminosity

The correlation between observed stellar X-ray luminosities, bolometric luminosities, and projected rotational velocities for stars of various spectral types and luminosity classes are determined. Early type stars (O3 to A5) have X-ray luminosities independent of rotational velocities, and correlating with bolometric luminosities. Late type stars of spectral type G to M have luminosities well correlated to equatorial rotational velocities, and are independent of luminosity class. The dependence of late type stars is found to be equivalent to a relation between the X-ray surface flux and the stellar angular velocity. F stars are intermediate with X-ray luminosities higher than would be predicted on the basis of the early type star relation, although lower than expected from the late type velocity dependence. The location of RS CVn stars as a class is also discussed, and it is found that the heating of late type stellar coronas does not result from direct conversion of ratational energy.

Pallavicini, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Stellar chromospheres, coronae, and winds

It has now been found that one or more of the phenomena of chromospheres, coronae, and winds are present in stars of every class. A review is provided of the observational and theoretical results pertaining to the thermal and dynamical structure of early- and late-type stellar atmospheres. Single stars either on the main sequence or in the postmain sequence stages of evolution are considered. In the context of a study of late-type stars, the specific case of the sun is also examined. The observational evidence for the presence of chromospheres in late-type stellar atmospheres is discussed, taking into account spectral diagnostics and line formation, an observational summary and aspects of location in the H-R diagram, and the Wilson-Bappu effect. Attention is also given to observational evidence for the presence of transition regions and coronae in late-type stellar atmospheres, chromospheric and coronal heating mechanisms, observational evidence for mass loss, and the winds and coronae of early-type stars.

Cassinelli, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Glacial and marine chronology of Mars

A hydrological model involving episodic oceans and ice sheets on Mars has been presented by Baker, et al. One of the main uncertainties concerning this model is the age and correlation of these events. Even more uncertain are their absolute ages. However, based on stratigraphic and cratering evidence, the most recent occurrence of these events was relatively late in Martian history. The cratering record on Mars can be divided into three general periods: (1) the period of late heavy bombardment; (2) a transition period at the end of late heavy bombardment; and (3) the post heavy bombardment era. The crater size/frequency distribution represented by the period of late heavy bombardment is characterized by a complex curve with a differential-2 slope (cumulative-1) at diameters less than about 50 km diameter, while the post heavy bombardment size distribution has a differential-3 slope (cumulative-2) over the same diameter range. An R plot is presented of the size/freqency distribution of ejecta blanket craters on the Argyre esker plains and similar craters in Hellas. The relative chronology is summarized of oceans, ice sheets, and other major events in Martian history.

Strom, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The diatom record from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global proxy perspective

Recent glaciological evaluation and modeling of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) support the possibility that the WAIS disintegrated during one or more Pleistocene interglacial period(s). The magnitude of sea level and oxygen isotope variation during certain late-Pleistocene interglacial periods is also consistent with the possibility of major retreat of the WAIS. Although oxygen isotopes from deep-sea sediments provide the best available proxy record for global ice volume (despite the ambiguities in the record), the source of ice volume changes must be hypothesized. Based on the intensity of interglacial isotopic shifts recorded in Southern Ocean marine sedimentary records, stage 11 (400,000 years ago) is the strongest candidate for WAIS collapse, but the records for stages 9, 7, and 5.5 are all consistent with the possibility of multiple late-Pleistocene collapses. Seismic reflection studies through the WAIS have revealed thick successions of strata with seismic characteristics comparable to upper Tertiary marine sediments. Small samples of glacial diamictons from beneath the ice sheet have been collected via hot-water drilled access holes. These sediments include mixed diatom assemblages of varying ages. Late-Miocene diatoms dominate many samples, probably reflecting marine deposition in West Antarctic basins prior to development of a dominantly glacial phase in West Antarctica. In addition to late-Miocene diatoms, samples from Upstream B (1988/89) contain rare post-Miocene diatoms, many of which imply deposition in the West Antarctic interior during one or more Pleistocene deglaciation periods. Age-diagnostic fossils in glacial sediments beneath ice sheets provide relatively coarse chronostratigraphic control, but they do contain direct evidence of regional deglaciation. Thus, sub-glacial till samples provide the evidence regarding the source of ice sheet variability seen in well-dated proxy records. Combined, these independent data sets can provide a more comprehensive and less speculative interpretation of the history of past glacial minima in currently glaciated polar regions.

Scherer, Reed P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

N2O as an indicator of Arctic vortex dynamics: Correlations with O3 over Thule, Greenland in February and March, 1992

We have recovered vertical profiles of stratospheric N2O from spectra observed using a ground-based mm-wave spectrometer during the Arctic spring. The measurements were made from Thule, Greenland (76.3 deg N, 68.4 deg W) on nine occasions from late February to late March, 1992 as part of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Correlative Measurements Program and the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE). During late February Thule was under inside edge of the Arctic vortex and mixing ratio profiles measured in that period are substantially reduced from typical high-latitude summer values. By late March the polar vortex had moved well away from Thule and N2O mixing ratios were greatly increased, coinciding with a basic change in circulation that brought in air from the Aleutian high. The motion of the vortex is also illustrated in the change in potential vorticity above Thule. A correlation with ozone balloonsonde data from Thule is made and compared to similar analyses of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) measurements. Within the sensitivity of our analysis, the correlation of N2O and O3 shows no evidence of ozone depletion within the vortex during this period; however, there is a distinct difference in the correlation inside and outside the vortex.

Emmons, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multi-Year Elevation Changes Near the West Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimetry

Mean changes in the surface elevation near the west margin of the Greenland ice sheet are measured using Seasat altimetry and altimetry from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission (ERM). The Seasat data extend from early July through early October 1978. The ERM data extend from winter 1986-87 through fall 1988. Both seasonal and multi-year changes are measured using altimetry referenced to GEM T2 orbits. The possible effects of orbit error are minimized by adjusting the orbits into a common ocean surface. Seasonal mean changes in the surface height are recognizable during the Geosat ERM. The multi-year measurements indicate the surface was lower by 0.4 +/- 0.4 m on average in late summer 1987 than in late summer 1978. The surface was lower by 0.2 +/- 0.5 m on average in late summer 1988 than in late summer 1978. As a control case, the computations art also carried out using altimetry referenced to orbits not adjusted into a common ocean surface.

Lingle, Craig S.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Arctic Ozone Depletion Observed by UARS MLS During the 1994-95 Winter

During the unusually cold 1994-95 Arctic winter, the Microwave Limb Sounder observed enhanced chlorine monoxide (ClO) in late Dec and throughout Feb and early Mar. Late Dec ClO was higher than during any of the previous 3 years, consistent with the colder early winter. Between late Dec 1994 and early Feb 1995, 465 K (about 50 hPa) vortex-averaged ozone (03) decreased by about 15%, with local decreases of about 30%; additional local decreases of about 5% were seen between early Feb and early Mar. Transport calculations indicate that vortex-averaged chemical loss between late Dec and early Feb was about 20% at 465 K, with about 1/4 of that masked by downward transport of O3. This Arctic chemical O3 loss is not readily detectable in MLS column O3 data.

Manney, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evidence for a New Class of Extreme Ultraviolet Sources

Most of the sources detected in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV; 100-600 A) by the ROSAT/WFC and EUVE all-sky surveys have been identified with active late-type stars and hot white dwarfs that are near enough to the Earth to escape absorption by interstellar gas. However, about 15 per cent of EUV sources are as yet unidentified with any optical counterparts. We examine whether the unidentified EUV sources may consist of the same population of late-type stars and white dwarfs. We present B and R photometry of stars in the fields of seven of the unidentified EUV sources. We detect in the optical the entire main-sequence and white dwarf population out to the greatest distances where they could still avoid absorption. We use color-magnitude diagrams to demonstrate that, in most of the fields, none of the observed stars has the colours and magnitudes of late-type dwarfs at distances less than 100 pc. Similarly, none of the observed stars is a white dwarf within 500 pc that is hot enough to be a EUV emitter. The unidentified EUV sources we study are not detected in X-rays, while cataclysmic variables, X-ray binaries, and active galactic nuclei generally are. We conclude that some of the EUV sources may be a new class of nearby objects, which are either very faint at optical bands or which mimic the colours and magnitudes of distant late-type stars or cool white dwarfs. One candidate for optically faint objects is isolated old neutron stars, slowly accreting interstellar matter. Such neutron stars are expected to be abundant in the Galaxy, and have not been unambiguously detected.

Maoz, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2001

Flash Mixing on the White-Dwarf Cooling Curve: Understanding Hot Horizontal Branch Anomalies in NGC 2808

We present an ultraviolet color-magnitude diagram (CMD) spanning the hot horizontal branch (HB), blue straggler, and white dwarf populations of the globular cluster NGC 2808. These data, obtained with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS), demonstrate that NGC 2808 harbors a significant population of hot subluminous HB stars, an anomaly only previously reported for the globular cluster omega Cen. Our theoretical modeling indicates that the location of these subluminous stars in the CMD, as well as the high temperature gap along the HB of NGC 2808, can be explained if these stars underwent a late helium-core flash while descending the white dwarf cooling curve. We show that the convective zone produced by such a late helium flash will penetrate into the hydrogen envelope, thereby mixing hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed. This phenomenon is analogous to the "born again" scenario for producing hydrogen-deficient stars following a late helium-shell flash. The flash mixing of the envelope greatly enhances the envelope helium and carbon abundances that, in turn, leads to a discontinuous increase in the HB effective temperatures. We argue that the hot HB gap is associated with this theoretically predicted dichotomy in the HB properties. Moreover, the changes in the emergent spectral energy distribution caused by these abundance changes are primarily responsible for explaining the hot subluminous HB stars. Although further evidence is needed to confirm that a late helium-core flash can account for the subluminous HB stars and the hot HB gap, we demonstrate that an understanding of these stars requires the use of appropriate theoretical models for their evolution, atmospheres, and spectra.

Brown, Thomas M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. GAPP region in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo, effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Tracer-Based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999-2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for November 26, 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude, extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences, we inferred descent prior to November 26: 397+/-15 K (1sigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and 28+/-13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from November 26 through March 12, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between November 26 and January 27: 0.82+/-0.20 K/day averaged over 50-250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (February 26-March 12), the average rate had decreased to 0.10+/-0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (November 26-March 5) descent rate varied from 0.75+/-0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40+/-0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999-2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Atm heterozygous mice are more sensitive to radiation-induced cataracts than are their wild-type counterparts

It is important to know whether the human population includes genetically predisposed radiosensitive subsets. In vitro studies have shown that cells from individuals homozygous for ataxia telangiectasia (A-T) are much more radiosensitive than cells from unaffected individuals. Although cells heterozygous for the ATM gene (ATM(+/-)) may be slightly more radiosensitive in vitro, it remained to be determined whether the greater susceptibility of ATM(+/-) cells translates into an increased sensitivity for late effects in vivo, though there is a suggestion that radiotherapy patients that are heterozygous for the ATM gene may be more at risk of developing late normal tissue damage. We chose cataractogenesis in the lens as a means to assay for the effects of ATM deficiency in a late-responding tissue. One eye of wild-type, Atm heterozygous and homozygous knockout mice was exposed to 0.5-, 1.0-, 2.0-, or 4.0-Gy x rays. The animals were followed weekly for cataract development by conventional slit-lamp biomicroscopy. Cataract development in the animals of all three groups was strongly dependent on dose. The lenses of homozygous mice were the first to opacify at any given dose. Most important in the present context is that cataracts appeared earlier in the heterozygous versus wild-type animals. The data suggest that ATM heterozygotes in the human population may also be radiosensitive. This may influence the choice of individuals destined to be exposed to higher than normal doses of radiation, such as astronauts, and may also suggest that radiotherapy patients who are ATM heterozygotes could be predisposed to increased late normal tissue damage.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2001

Do no harm--normal tissue effects

Radiation therapy confers enormous benefits that must be balanced against the possibilities for harm including late toxicity in normal tissues and radiation-induced second malignancies. A small percentage of patients experience severe late complications. The question is, do these late sequelae occur randomly, or are they confined to individuals who are genetically predisposed to radiosensitivity. Experiments with knockout mice and with patients demonstrate that individuals heterozygous for a number of genes appear to be radiosensitive. If radiosensitive patients were identified prospectively by genetic analysis, they could be spared the trauma of late sequelae. Several large studies have shown a statistically significant excess of radiation-induced malignancies in radiotherapy patients. Most second cancers are carcinomas, developing in the lining cells of the body often remote from the treatment site. Radiation-induced sarcomas appear only in the heavily irradiated areas. These are small in number but appear with a very high relative risk.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2002

What Is Happening at Spectral Type F5 in Hyades F Stars?

Aiming at a better understanding of the mechanisms heating the chromospheres, transition regions, and coronae of cool stars, we study ultraviolet, low-resolution Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph spectra of Hyades main-sequence F stars. We study the B-V dependence(s) of the chromospheric and transition layer emission line fluxes and their dependences on rotational velocities. We find that the transition layer emission line fluxes and also those of strong chromospheric lines decrease steeply between B-V = 0.42 and 0.45, i.e., at spectral type F5, for which the rotational velocities also decrease steeply. The magnitude of the line-flux decrease increases for lines of ions with increasing degree of ionization. This shows that the line-flux decrease is not due to a change in the surface filling factor but rather due to a change of the relative importance of different heating mechanisms. For early F stars with B-V < 0.42 we find for the transition layer emission lines increasing fluxes for increasing v sin i, indicating magnetohydrodynamic heating. The v sin i dependence is strongest for the high-ionization lines. On the other hand, the low chromospheric lines show no dependence on v sin i, indicating acoustic shock heating for these layers. This also contributes to the heating of the transition layers. The Mg II and Ca II lines show decreasing fluxes for increasing v sin i, as long as v sin i is less than approx. 40 km/s. The coronal X-ray emission also decreases for increasing v sin i, except for v sin i larger than approx. 100 km/s. We have at present no explanation for this behavior. For late F stars the chromospheric lines show v sin i dependences similar to those observed for early F stars, again indicating acoustic heating for these layers. We were unable to determine the v sin i dependence of the transition layer lines because of too few single star targets. The decrease of emission line fluxes at the spectral type F5, with steeply decreasing v sin i, indicates, however, a decreasing contribution of magnetohydrodynamic heating for the late F stars. The X-ray emission for the late F stars increases for increasing v sin i, indicating magnetohydrodynamic heating for the coronae of the late F stars, different from the early F stars.

Boehm-Vitense, Erika↗

NASA NTRS1997

Left ventricular diastolic filling with an implantable ventricular assist device: beat to beat variability with overall improvement

OBJECTIVES: We studied the effects of left ventricular (LV) unloading by an implantable ventricular assist device on LV diastolic filling. BACKGROUND: Although many investigators have reported reliable systemic and peripheral circulatory support with implantable LV assist devices, little is known about their effect on cardiac performance. METHODS: Peak velocities of early diastolic filling, late diastolic filling, late to early filling ratio, deceleration time of early filling, diastolic filling period and atrial filling fraction were measured by intraoperative transesophageal Doppler echocardiography before and after insertion of an LV assist device in eight patients. A numerical model was developed to simulate this situation. RESULTS: Before device insertion, all patients showed either a restrictive or a monophasic transmitral flow pattern. After device insertion, transmitral flow showed rapid beat to beat variation in each patient, from abnormal relaxation to restrictive patterns. However, when the average values obtained from 10 consecutive beats were considered, overall filling was significantly normalized from baseline, with early filling velocity falling from 87 +/- 31 to 64 +/- 26 cm/s (p < 0.01) and late filling velocity rising from 8 +/- 11 to 32 +/- 23 cm/s (p < 0.05), resulting in an increase in the late to early filling ratio from 0.13 +/- 0.18 to 0.59 +/- 0.38 (p < 0.01) and a rise in the atrial filling fraction from 8 +/- 10% to 26 +/- 17% (p < 0.01). The deceleration time (from 112 +/- 40 to 160 +/- 44 ms, p < 0.05) and the filling period corrected by the RR interval (from 39 +/- 8% to 54 +/- 10%, p < 0.005) were also significantly prolonged. In the computer model, asynchronous LV assistance produced significant beat to beat variation in filling indexes, but overall a normalization of deceleration time as well as other variables. CONCLUSIONS: With LV assistance, transmitral flow showed rapidly varying patterns beat by beat in each patient, but overall diastolic filling tended to normalize with an increase of atrial contribution to the filling. Because of the variable nature of the transmitral flow pattern with the assist device, the timing of the device cycle must be considered when inferring diastolic function from transmitral flow pattern.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2002

Tracer-based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999/2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffrey B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Glacial isostatic stress shadowing by the Antarctic ice sheet

Numerous examples of fault slip that offset late Quaternary glacial deposits and bedrock polish support the idea that the glacial loading cycle causes earthquakes in the upper crust. A semianalytical scheme is presented for quantifying glacial and postglacial lithospheric fault reactivation using contemporary rock fracture prediction methods. It extends previous studies by considering differential Mogi-von Mises stresses, in addition to those resulting from a Coulomb analysis. The approach utilizes gravitational viscoelastodynamic theory and explores the relationships between ice mass history and regional seismicity and faulting in a segment of East Antarctica containing the great Antarctic Plate (Balleny Island) earthquake of 25 March 1998 (Mw 8.1). Predictions of the failure stress fields within the seismogenic crust are generated for differing assumptions about background stress orientation, mantle viscosity, lithospheric thickness, and possible late Holocene deglaciation for the D91 Antarctic ice sheet history. Similar stress fracture fields are predicted by Mogi-von Mises and Coulomb theory, thus validating previous rebound Coulomb analysis. A thick lithosphere, of the order of 150-240 km, augments stress shadowing by a late melting (middle-late Holocene) coastal East Antarctic ice complex and could cause present-day earthquakes many hundreds of kilometers seaward of the former Last Glacial Maximum grounding line.

Coulomb stress↗