Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Interannual variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

The Impacts of Recent Drought on Fire, Forest Loss, and Regional Smoke Emissions in Lowland Bolivia

In the southern Amazon relationships have been established among drought, human activities that cause forest loss, fire, and smoke emissions. We explore the impacts of recent drought on fire, forest loss, and atmospheric visibility in lowland Bolivia. To assess human influence on fire, we consider climate, fire, and vegetation dynamics in an area largely excluded from human activities since 1979, Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NK) in northeastern Bolivia. We use data from five sources: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 active fire product (2001-2015) (MODIS C6), Global Fire Weather Database (GFWED) data (1982-2015), MODIS land cover data (2001-2010), MODIS forest loss data (2000-2012), and the regional extinction coefficient for the southwestern Amazon (i.e., B(sub ext)), which is derived from horizontal visibility data from surface stations at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) level (1973-2015). The B(sub ext) is affected by smoke and acts as a proxy for visibility and regional fire emissions. In lowland Bolivia from 2001 to 2015, interannual Drought Code (DC) variability was linked to fire activity, while from 1982 to 2015, interannual DC variability was linked to B(sub ext). From 2001 to 2015, the B(sub ext) and MODIS C6 active fire data for lowland Bolivia captured fire seasonality, and covaried between low- and high-fire years. Consistent with previous studies, our results suggest B(sub ext)t can be used as a longer-term proxy of regional fire emissions in southwestern Amazonia. Overall, our study found drought conditions were the dominant control on interannual fire variability in lowland Bolivia, and fires within NK were limited to the Cerrado and seasonally inundated wetland biomes. Our results suggest lowland Bolivian tropical forests were susceptible to human activities that may have amplified fire during drought. Human activities and drought need to be considered in future projections of southern Amazonian fire, in regard to carbon emissions and global climate.

Forest Loss↗
NASA NTRS2017

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aragonite saturation horizon variability along North Pacific seamounts and implications for deep-sea coral reefs

The 2014 discovery of living deep-sea coral reefs along the Northwest Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) and lower Emperor Seamount Chain (ESC), despite the North Pacific’s shallow aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) and high CaCO3 dissolution rates, underscores the need to understand the local seawater chemistry that allows these reefs to persist. We investigated seawater carbonate chemistry using discrete samples along the NWHI and ESC from two cruises ~1 year apart (08/26/21 – 09/26/21, 09/09/22 – 10/24/22). Across the two cruises, ASH depth difference ranged from 15 to 77 m. Since the Pacific ASH shoals by 1–2 m yr?¹, this long-term trend cannot explain the magnitude of ASH change observed between cruises. Temperature-salinity plots similarly indicate no major shifts in intermediate water masses that could account for these changes. Instead, ASH depth variability was primarily governed by localized biogeochemical processes, namely changes in intermediate water respiration and CaCO3 dissolution. Indicators for dissolution (TA*) and respiration (AOU) suggest changes in ASH depth were driven by changes in dissolution at the northern- and southern-most sites, whereas respiration exerted stronger control at central sites. Combining 2021 and 2022 data with data from 2014 – 2019 (excluding 2018) revealed high interannual ASH variability, by as much as >200 m at one site. Deep-sea coral reefs across the NWHI and ESC currently reside close to the ASH depth and likely experience seasonal and interannual shifts between under- and supersaturation. As ocean acidification progresses however, persistent exposure to undersaturated seawater could further threaten these critical deep-sea ecosystems.

coral reefs↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nimbus 7 earth radiation budget wide field of view climate data set improvement. II - Deconvolution of earth radiation budget products and consideration of 1982-1983 El Nino event

A deconvolution technique is employed that permits recovery of daily averaged earth radiation budget (ERB) parameters at the top of the atmosphere from a set of the Nimbus 7 ERB wide field of view (WFOV) measurements. Improvements in both the spatial resolution of the resultant fields and in the fidelity of the time averages is obtained. The algorithm is evaluated on a set of months during the period 1980-1983. The albedo, outgoing long-wave radiation, and net radiation parameters are analyzed. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-stationary patterns that appear in the spatially deconvolved fields describe the radiation budget components for 'normal' as well as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode years. They delineate the seasonal development of large-scale features inherent in the earth's radiation budget as well as the natural variability of interannual differences. These features are underscored by the powerful emergence of the 1982-1983 ENSO event in the fields displayed. The conclusion is that with this type of resolution enhancement, WFOV radiometers provide a useful tool for the observation of the contemporary climate and its variability.

Ardanuy, Phillip E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System

The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Results indicate that GRACE will be able to observe seasonal signals at half-wavelengths ranging from 1000 to 10000 km, and may be able to observe secular trends at half- wavelengths of greater than 2000-3000 km for soil moisture and snow depth if they are as large as some of the climate experiments predict.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Gaffen, Dian J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018

Previous studies have noted a relationship between African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, due to the limitations of past dust analyses, the strength of this relationship remains uncertain. The emergence of aerosol reanalyses, including the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) reanalysis, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA), enables an investigation of the relationship between African dust and TC activity over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in a consistent temporal and spatial manner for 2003–2018. Although June–July–August (JJA) 550 nm dust AOD (DAOD) from all three reanalysis products correlates significantly over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the difference in DAOD magnitude between products can be as large as 60 % over the Caribbean and 20 % over the tropical North Atlantic. Based on the three individual reanalyses, we have created an aerosol multi-reanalysis consensus (MRC). The MRC presents overall better root mean square error over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean compared to individual reanalyses when verified with ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) AOD measurements. Each of the three individual reanalyses and the MRC have significant negative correlations between JJA Caribbean DAOD and seasonal Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), while the correlation between JJA tropical North Atlantic DAOD and seasonal ACE is weaker. Possible reasons for this regional difference are provided. A composite analysis of 3 high-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years versus 3 low-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years reveals large differences in overall Atlantic TC activity. We also show that JJA Caribbean DAOD is significantly correlated with large-scale fields associated with variability in interannual Atlantic TC activity including zonal wind shear, mid-level moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), implying confounding effects of these factors on the dust–TC relationship. We find that seasonal Atlantic DAOD and the AMM, the leading mode of coupled Atlantic variability, are inversely related and intertwined in the dust–TC relationship. Overall, DAOD in both the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, with stronger correlations in the Caribbean than farther east in the tropical North Atlantic.

Dust particles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Diagnosing Changes In Earth's Top-Of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget Since 2000

Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) is a key indicator of the climate system as it describes the delicate balance between how much of the sun’s energy reaching Earth is absorbed and how much thermal infrared radiation is emitted back to space. It is now well established that there is a positive net imbalance in ERB of 0.5-1 Wm-2. This imbalance, referred to as Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), is shaped by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and the climate system’s response to the forcing.When averaged over a long period, a positive EEI leads to an increase in surface temperature, sea levelrise, ocean heat content, melting of snow and sea-ice, and an acceleration of the hydrological cycle.EEI is also influenced by internal climate variability at interannual (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)) and longer timescales (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). Here we use CERES data toshow that since 2000, EEI has been increasing at a rate of 0.04+-0.03 Wm-2 per yr, corresponding to 0.8 Wm-1 over the 20-year CERES record. To understand the underlying causes for this increase, we analyze the CERES data in the context of internal climate variability indices and regional pattern changes. We also perform a partial radiative perturbation analysis that decomposes the TOA SW and LW radiation variations in terms of contributions by clouds, aerosols, surface albedo, temperature,water vapor and other gases (e.g., ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.).

Norman G Loeb↗
NASA NTRS2004

Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S variations with El Nino

Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationship variability in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5 degrees S ??degrees N, 150 degrees W ?? degrees W) over the last two decades is investigated using observational data and model simulation.

El Nino hydrography climate interannual variabilit↗
NASA NTRS2022

Continental Patterns of Bird Migration Linked to Climate Variability

For nearly 100 years, avian migration studies have divided North America into three or four primary flyways, at times based on subjective approaches or just for convenience. Those studies often fail to adequately reflect a critical characterization of migration —phenology. This shortcoming has been partly due to the lack of reliable continental-scale data, a gap filled by our current study. Here, we leveraged unique radar-based data quantifying migration phenology and used an objective regionalization approach to revisit the traditional spatial framework. Consequently, we identified two regions with distinct inter annual variability of spring migration across the contiguous U.S. This new data-driven framework has enabled us to explore the climatic cues affecting the inter annual variability of migration phenology, “specific to each region” across North America. For example, our “two-region” approach allowed us to identify an east-west dipole pattern in migratory behavior linked to atmospheric Ross by waves. Also, we revealed a low-frequency variability in migration movements over the western U.S. that is inversely related with temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our spatial platform would facilitate future work on better understanding the mechanisms responsible for broad-scale migration phenology and its potential future changes.

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2007

Low-Level Cloud Variability over the Equatorial Cold Tongue in Observations and Models

A fourth paper now in press is, Low-level cloud variability over the equatorial cold tongue in observations and models, by D. K. Mansbach and J. R. Norris (2007, J. Climate). This study examined cloud and meteorological observations from satellite, surface, and reanalysis datasets and fount that monthly anomalies in low-level cloud amount and near-surface temperature advection are strongly negatively correlated on the southern side of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. This inverse correlation occurs independently of relationships between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) or lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) and the combination of advection plus SST or LTS explains significantly more interannual cloud variability in a multilinear regression than does SST or LTS alone. Warm anomalous advection occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is well defined and the southeastern Pacific trade winds bring relatively warm air over colder water. Ship meteorological reports and soundings show that the atmospheric surface layer becomes stratified under these conditions, thus inhibiting the upward mixing of moisture needed to sustain cloudiness against subsidence and entrainment drying. Cold anomalous advection primarily occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is weak or absent and the air-sea temperature difference is substantially negative. These conditions favor a more convective atmospheric boundary layer, greater cloud amount, and less frequent occurrence of clear sky. Examination of output from global climate models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) indicates that both models generally fail to simulate the cloud-advection relationships observed on the northern and southern sides of the equatorial cold tongue. Although the GFDL atmosphere model does reproduce the expected signs of cloud-advection correlations when forced with prescribed historical SST variations, it does not consistently do so when coupled to an ocean model. The NCAR model has difficulty reproducing the observed correlations in both atmosphere-only and coupled versions. This suggests that boundary layer cloud parameterizations could be improved through better representation of the effects of advection over varying SST.

Mansbach, David K.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Influence of Vegetation on Simulation of the Water Balance and Hydrological Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Western Tropical South America

Land surface models (LSMs) rely on vegetation parameters for use in hydrological and energy balance analysis, monitoring, and forecasting. This study examines the influence that vegetation representation in the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) LSM has on hydrological simulations across the diverse climate zones of western tropical South America (WTSA), with specific consideration of hydrological variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The influence of model representation of vegetation on simulated hydrology is evaluated through three simulation experiments that use 1) satellite-derived constant MODIS; 2) satellite-derived time-varying MODIS; and 3) the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model. We find substantial differences in vegetation fields between these simulations, with the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model diverging significantly from satellite-derived vegetation fields in many ecoregions. Impacts on simulated hydrology were, however, found to be modest across climate zones, except for select extreme events. Also, although impacts on hydrology under ENSO-induced variability were small, we find that the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model simulates a positive relationship between rainfall and vegetation in humid ecoregions of WTSA, where satellite observations may indicate the opposite. The relatively small sensitivity of simulated hydrology to vegetation scheme suggests that the performance of hydrological monitoring and forecasting in WTSA that uses Noah-MP is largely unaffected by the choice of vegetation scheme, such that using a simple climatological default is generally no worse than adopting more complicated options. The presence of some differences between the time-varying and constant MODIS simulations for hydrologic extremes, however, indicates that time-varying MODIS configuration might be more suitable for hydrological hazards applications.

South America↗
NASA NTRS2021

Air Pollution Trends Measured From Terra: CO and AOD Over Industrial, Fire-prone, and Background Regions

Following past studies to quantify decadal trends in global carbon monoxide (CO) using satellite observations, we update estimates and find a CO trend in column amounts of about −0.50 % per year between 2002 to 2018, which is a deceleration compared to analyses performed on shorter records that found −1 % per year. Aerosols are co-emitted with CO from both fires and anthropogenic sources but with a shorter lifetime than CO. A combined trend analysis of CO and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from space helps to diagnose the drivers of regional differences in the CO trend. We use the long-term records of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and AOD from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. Other satellite instruments measuring CO in the thermal infrared, AIRS, TES, IASI, and CrIS, show consistent hemispheric CO variability and corroborate results from the trend analysis performed with MOPITT CO. Trends are examined by hemisphere and in regions for 2002 to 2018, with uncertainties quantified. The CO and AOD records are split into two sub-periods (2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2018) in order to assess trend changes over the 16 years. We focus on four major population centers: Northeast China, North India, Europe, and Eastern USA, as well as fire-prone regions in both hemispheres. In general, CO declines faster in the first half of the record compared to the second half, while AOD trends show more variability across regions. We find evidence of the atmospheric impact of air quality management policies. The large decline in CO found over Northeast China is initially associated with an improvement in combustion efficiency, with subsequent additional air quality improvements from 2010 onwards. Industrial regions with minimal emission control measures such as North India become more globally relevant as the global CO trend weakens. We also examine the CO trends in monthly percentile values to understand seasonal implications and find that local changes in biomass burning are sufficiently strong to counteract the global downward trend in atmospheric CO, particularly in late summer.

carbon monoxide↗
DOE OSTI2023

Process-Oriented Diagnostics: Principles, Practice, Community Development, and Common Standards

Process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) aim to provide feedback for model developers through model analysis based on physical hypotheses. However, the step from a diagnostic based on relationships among variables, even when hypothesis driven, to specific guidance for revising model formulation or parameterizations can be substantial. The POD may provide more information than a purely performance-based metric, but a gap between POD principles and providing actionable information for specific model revisions can remain. Furthermore, in coordinating diagnostics development, there is a trade-off between freedom for the developer, aiming to capture innovation, and near-term utility to the modeling center. Best practices that allow for the former, while conforming to specifications that aid the latter, are important for community diagnostics development that leads to tangible model improvements. Promising directions to close the gap between principles and practice include the interaction of PODs with perturbed physics experiments and with more quantitative process models as well as the inclusion of personnel from modeling centers in diagnostics development groups for immediate feedback during climate model revisions. Examples are provided, along with best-practice recommendations, based on practical experience from the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF). Common standards for metrics and diagnostics that have arisen from a collaboration between the MDTF and the Department of Energy’s Coordinated Model Evaluation Capability are advocated as a means of uniting community diagnostics efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Tibetan Plateau sensible heat on pre-monsoon dust burdens over South Asia: Observational and modeling evidence

Tibetan Plateau sensible heating (TPSH) effect is recognized as a key driver of the South Asian climate; however its role in regulating the regional dust burdens over South Asia during the pre-monsoon season remains unclear. Using long-term reanalysis and/or observational dust and TPSH data, we show that the dust optical depth at 550 nm (DOD 550 ) over South Asia is significantly positively correlated with TPSH at the interannual scale. DOD 550 over South Asia increases (decreases) by 20 % (12 %) in the strongest (weakest) TPSH years. The phenomenon of TPSH-dust relationships is reinforced by sensitivity experiments by altering TPSH from global climate models. Further mechanism analysis reveals that TPSH perturbation induces regional circulation anomalies over South Asia, which features a low-tropospheric cyclonic response around the Tibetan Plateau. This cyclonic anomaly strengthens the prevailing northwesterly winds, increasing regional dust emissions and transportation over South Asia. This novel mechanism helps understand the South Asian dust change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗