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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging generative AI for urban digital twins: a scoping review on the autonomous generation of urban data, scenarios, designs, and 3D city models for smart city advancement

The digital transformation of modern cities by integrating advanced information, communication, and computing technologies has marked the epoch of data-driven smart city applications for efficient and sustainable urban management. Despite their effectiveness, these applications often rely on massive amounts of high-dimensional and multi-domain data for monitoring and characterizing different urban sub-systems, presenting challenges in application areas that are limited by data quality and availability, as well as costly efforts for generating urban scenarios and design alternatives. As an emerging research area in deep learning, Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) models have demonstrated their unique values in content generation. This paper aims to explore the innovative integration of GenAI techniques and urban digital twins to address challenges in the planning and management of built environments with focuses on various urban sub-systems, such as transportation, energy, water, and building and infrastructure. The survey starts with the introduction of cutting-edge generative AI models, such as the Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), followed by a scoping review of the existing urban science applications that leverage the intelligent and autonomous capability of these techniques to facilitate the research, operations, and management of critical urban subsystems, as well as the holistic planning and design of the built environment. Based on the review, we discuss potential opportunities and technical strategies that integrate GenAI models into the next-generation urban digital twins for more intelligent, scalable, and automated smart city development and management.

3D city modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of the Effect of Burnup Acceleration on UO 2 Microstructure Evolution

Accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) is a methodology by which new nuclear fuels are developed in an accelerated time frame compared with historical fuel qualification approaches. AFQ generally relies on high-fidelity physics-based modeling and simulation tools to adequately describe fuel performance as well as on revolutionary methods to accelerate burnup accumulation and collect relevant data more quickly. This report summarizes the use of advanced fuel modeling and simulation tools to evaluate microstructures from commercially irradiated fuel and microstructures from proposed MiniFuel irradiations, in which burnup accumulation is accelerated while prototypic temperature conditions are maintained. In this milestone, we used the mesoscale fuel performance code MARMOT to model the evolution of irradiated UO 2 microstructures and their potential restructuring at high burnup. The simulation conditions were informed by BISON models of both commercially irradiated fuel and MiniFuel. A first set of simulations investigated the recrystallization behavior of fully dense microstructures and showed full recrystallization at burnups as low as 52 MWd/kgU at 950°C. However, these simulations did not account for the presence of fission gas bubbles (predicted by BISON). Therefore, a second set of simulations including fission gas bubbles was performed and indicated that at the lowest temperature considered (650°C), the porous UO 2 microstructures have the highest total Gibbs free energies and are likely to recrystallize earlier than higher temperature cases (800 and 950°C), which agrees with high-burnup fuel characterization data. The results also showed that at lower temperature (650°C), the total free energies of the PWR fuel and MiniFuel microstructures are not significantly different. However, at the highest temperature (950°C), MiniFuel microstructures have a lower free energy than that of the PWR fuel microstructure. The competing effects between the temperature-dependent grain nucleation rate and the reduction of the free energy of the microstructure at higher temperature as a result of diffusion indicated that restructuring may occur at even higher temperatures than those considered in this study. In addition to the microstructure evolution modeling efforts, the burnup gradient across a single fuel specimen was also considered. This evaluation was for the VXF-15 position of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) using the code suite HFIRCON, which was developed to automate the workflow for evaluating targets and fuel as they are irradiated in HFIR. The burnup gradient evaluation showed a dependence on both the axial and radial locations within the specimen, with a maximum difference of 1.7 between the inner and outermost radial layers. This relationship was further supported by considering the fission product speciation with respect to location within the specimen, which showed a higher concentration of 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and 241 Pu on the outer radial locations of the specimen than the center. The findings of the burnup and speciation evaluation show that some amount of self-shielding is occurring in the specimen when irradiated in the high-flux environment of HFIR; however, this impact is more pronounced for natural uranium when compared to 6% enrichment due to the higher ratio of 238 U in the specimen. Further analyses are required to understand the sensitivity of this gradient to spatial mesh and enrichment of the specimen.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality control and crop characterization framework for multi-temporal UAV LiDAR data over mechanized agricultural fields

Recent developments in remote sensing are enabling automatic, high resolution, and non-destructive survey of agriculture fields, providing the key basis for advancing plant breeding. Among the used remote sensing modalities, LiDAR has attracted wide attention for its ability to directly provide accurate 3D information. Despite the increasing utilization of LiDAR technology in phenotyping, there is still a lack of effective quality control strategies, in particular, quality control of LiDAR data collected on a multi-temporal basis. This study proposes a targetless framework for multi-temporal LiDAR data quality control and crop characterization in mechanized agricultural fields. Features extracted from the fields – terrain patches and row/alley locations – are utilized for evaluating the vertical and planimetric relative accuracy of the point clouds. Row/alley locations in the field are automatically identified from the point clouds based on the assumption that higher point density and/or higher elevation correspond to plant locations. The performance of the proposed quality control strategies is evaluated using multi-temporal datasets collected in agricultural fields of different sizes, orientation, crops, and growth stages. The result shows that the net vertical and planimetric discrepancies between multi-temporal point clouds are ±3 cm and ±8 cm, respectively. While the former reflects the actual accuracy of the point clouds, the latter is a combined effect of the LiDAR point cloud accuracy, rasterization artifacts, crop type, growth pattern, and wind condition during data acquisition. In terms of row and alley detection, the result shows that the proposed strategy achieves high performance and can deal with different planting orientation, crop types, growth stages, canopy cover, and planting density. In conclusion, this study presents a quality control framework for multi-temporal LiDAR data. Finally, the row and alley detection leads to automated extraction of plots, and hence facilitates the use of remotely sensed data for automated phenotyping.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph theory inspired anomaly detection at the LHC

Designing model-independent anomaly detection algorithms for analyzing LHC data remains a central challenge in the search for new physics, due to the high dimensionality of collider events. In this work, we develop a graph autoencoder as an unsupervised, model-agnostic tool for anomaly detection, using the LHC Olympics dataset as a benchmark. By representing jet constituents as a graph, we introduce a method to systematically control the information available to the model through sparse graph constructions that serve as physically motivated inductive biases. Specifically, (1) we construct graph autoencoders based on locally rigid Laman graphs and globally rigid unique graphs, and (2) we explore the clustering of jet constituents into subjets to interpolate between high- and low-level input representations. We obtain the best performance, measured in terms of the Significance Improvement Characteristic curve for an intermediate level of subjet clustering and certain sparse unique graph constructions. We further investigate the role of graph connectivity in jet classification tasks. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging graph-theoretic insights to refine and increase the interpretability of machine learning tools for collider experiments.

Automation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Software Control Program For Transportable Microgrid State-of-charge Balancing And Frequency Stability Controls

A deterministic state-of-charge (SOC) balancing approach software control code is introduced as an integral secondary management to primary control layer of an islanded small microgrid or nanogrid system made up of multiple grid-forming inverter/battery/solar combination systems, where each set of batteries with each inverter are on independent DC buses (i.e. non-paralleled on the DC sides). A DERMS-level control approach, algorithm and automation controller program was developed to improve coordination and enable microgrid asset compliance and SOC balancing, enabling provision of a system-level power stability support architecture, load support, and asset scalability. The architecture is configured to treat each unit or micro/nano-grid as a node in a microgrid network, allowing for autonomous DERMS control regarding load and SOC balancing and power stability. As the network grows with the addition of units, greater coordination efforts may be required. The ideal small network microgrid ranges from 2-10 inverter/battery units before additional control parameters must be considered in the existing architecture. The control approach focuses on a deterministic state-of-charge analysis as the primary level control process followed by a secondary control loop using a forced frequency-watt droop strategy to conform off-the-shelf components into behaving under a leader-follower configuration. Adopting this control scheme has been shown to allow for a balanced, unit-coordinated microgrid network, enabling stable power flow. The deterministic state-of-charge approach is introduced as an integral primary control layer of an islanded small network microgrid. A standard strategy for SOC balancing is implementing a battery management system (BMS) to control SOC on the DC side. An alternative approach is to determine how to coordinate sending and receiving power on the AC side with multiple units. The latter approach assesses all the integrated units in the microgrid network. Once the individual units are identified, further system data is required to calculate each unit's total kWh, provided information about its capability to supply or consume kWh and availability. The secondary control layer in the multi-layered small network microgrid methodology uses the primary layer’s decision to initiate frequency setpoint changes, initializing the SOC balancing. The secondary control layer considers numerous system-dependent variables to enable a charging and discharging profile based on adjustable frequency setpoints. The combined architecture will result in stable, coordinated power flow enhancing an AC microgrid's functionalities.

Myers, KurtS [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Salt Sampling FY21 Technical Report

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches to enable high-precision in-process salt sample analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Tools currently under development in support of this goal include (1) a modular vacuum sampler with an accompanying sample handling method for coupling vacuum sampling with high-precision at-line sample analysis, (2) a pneumatic sample generator that enables high-throughput sample analysis to improve the precision of existing analytical techniques, and (3) a windowless flow cell to enable on-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop. Compared to point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), vacuum sampling systems and on-line sampling loops facilitate access to a larger cross-section of a process fluid. This is known to improve the characterization of the process fluid by producing more representative samples and by enabling the analysis of a larger cross section of the fluid. A vacuum sampling approach for molten salts eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. In FY21, two methods for integrating a vacuum sampler with a pneumatic sample generator were tested. These included direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the extreme conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampler and pneumatic sample generator, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the tube transfer method and discharge mechanism were tested in FY21. These were deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The method was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques. This will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based accountancy measurements by eliminating the need for manual off-line sample processing and analysis. On-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop would provide complementary information to at-line and in-situ techniques. In FY21, an open-aperture molten salt gravity flow cell with windowless optical access to flowing salt was successfully demonstrated. Future work should include the refinement and performance testing of the on-line and at-line sampling tools, integration of additional analysis techniques, stakeholder outreach and collaboration, evaluation of the integrated methods, and analyses to determine how the various tools might fit into an integrated safeguards monitoring system of unattended near real time monitoring tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Security and Resiliency in Operational Technology Environments Through Network Slicing and Federated Learning

The growing convergence of Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) within Industry 4.0 environments has introduced new demands on industrial network infrastructure. As cyber-physical systems become increasingly interconnected, ensuring the secure, timely, and efficient exchange of critical data is essential. This thesis explores how network slicing, a method of creating isolated virtual network segments, can be applied within OT environments to address challenges such as latency, security, and resource allocation. The first research question addressed in this thesis is: How can OT networks take advantage of NFV and SDN technology to become cyber resilient? This study examines the operational, security, and architectural implications of introducing network slicing into traditionally static OT infrastructures such as Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and SCADA. Through simulated deployments and case studies, the research demonstrates how slicing enables better isolation between critical and non-critical services, thereby improving response time, throughput, and security in sensitive environments. The second question considers: How to dynamically implement network slicing and take advantage of network resources towards integrating decentralized machine learning? In response, this thesis proposes a framework that combines Software-Defined Networking (SDN), Network Function Virtualization (NFV), and Federated Learning (FL) to enable real-time analytics while maintaining data locality. The proposed approach reduces the burden on centralized infrastructure and minimizes privacy risks by supporting on-site training of models across distributed OT nodes, coordinated through dynamically allocated network slices. The third focus explores: How slicing helps to increase the resiliency of OT networks through the orchestration of a dynamic DMZ? To answer this, the thesis presents a method for creating and managing Dynamic Demilitarized Zones (DMZs) using network slicing. This enables flexible and automated isolation of sensitive subsystems during threat scenarios or high-risk operations. Coupled with intelligent orchestration and containerized security services, the dynamic DMZ significantly enhances the system's ability to respond to cyber incidents without halting production. Ultimately, this thesis contributes a comprehensive architecture that blends network slicing with machine learning, secure segmentation, and automation, paving the way for resilient, adaptive, and intelligent OT environments. Performance evaluations across multiple scenarios show improvements in system reliability, threat response time, model accuracy, and resource utilization, providing a strong foundation for future industrial automation systems.

Rodiles Delgado, Brian G↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗
DOE OSTI2022

Memory forensic analysis of a programmable logic controller in industrial control systems

In industrial control systems (ICS), programmable logic controllers (PLCs) are used to automate physical processes such as nuclear plants and power grid stations, and are often subject to cyber attacks. As in conventional IT domain, the memory analysis of the PLCs can help answer important forensic questions about the attack, such as the presence of malicious firmware, injection of modified control logic (the program running on the PLC), and manipulation of I/O devices (e.g., sensors and actuators). Unlike conventional IT domain, PLCs have heterogeneous hardware architecture, proprietary firmware and control software, making it challenging to employ a unified framework for their memory forensics. For merely extracting artifacts of forensic importance, reverse-engineering the firmware is a tedious task, and the effort needs to be repeated for every PLC model. As a community, a step-wise approach to tackle this challenge is to analyze the memory of specific PLCs, and subsequently find a generic framework applicable to all PLCs. Our work is a step forward in this direction. By following a methodology that focuses on the functional layer of PLCs instead of reverse engineering the firmware, we analyze the digital forensic artifacts available in a common PLC, Allen-Bradley ControlLogix 1756-L61. Before diving into the memory dump, we analyze the PLC control software to create a list of important artifacts that are sure to exist in the PLC memory dump. The approach employs a setup where PLC control software RSLogix-5000 is connected to the PLC, and the memory dump can be obtained as and when needed. We create test cases that sequentially highlight each category of artifacts, followed by an examination of the resultant impact on memory. After attaining the listed artifacts, we employ conventional string and known data searches to extract interesting information present in this PLC's memory. The memory analysis profile, presented as a Python library and shared with the community, can help a forensic investigator to readily extract forensic artifacts from the same model's controller. The adopted approach may help researchers in creating memory profile of other PLCs, and ultimately formulating a generic PLC memory analysis framework.

Rais, Muhammad Haris↗
DOE OSTI2023

CRITICAL FUNCTION ASSURANCE: Understanding Critical Function and Critical Function Delivery is Foundational for Meaningful ICS Security Improvement and Policy Efforts

Modern life is enabled by a complex and interdependent web of critical functions, including energy, communications, transportation, food, and water. Automation has significantly reduced or replaced human interactions in the delivery of these functions, resulting in a web of goods and services that are made available 24/7 only through unique and intentional deployments of microprocessors, software, and firmware technologies. The prospect of cyber-enabled sabotage of these processes disrupts traditional risk determination models. Critical Function Assurance (CFA) is a foundational approach to identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the risk that is inherent in the delivery of critical functions that depend on digital technology. It provides rapid focus to what matters most and illuminates elements and areas of risk that otherwise are often overlooked. This focus enables effective application of available security resources and optimizes security strategy and policy efforts. This paper introduces CFA to decision makers and risk executives (including CEOs, COOs, CFOs, and CISOs) whose organizations support and deliver the critical functions that underpin national defense, societal health and safety, and a vibrant economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

DISARM: Target Electronic Device Informed Mitigation of Software Runtime Side-Channel Vulnerabilities

Program runtime/timing attacks exploit variations in a program’s execution times to extract sensitive information from the program (e.g. encryption keys, sensitive variable data, intellectual property). State-of-the-art solutions to runtime side-channel attacks attempt to balance the execution time of the sensitive code for different control flow paths to eliminate the timing leakage. However, during the mitigation process, most techniques do not consider the underlying hardware/device on which the target program is supposed to run on. This can lead to over-fixing (unnecessary extra operations), under-fixing (not solving the imbalance properly), and even failures. Here, we propose DISARM, a joint hardware-software methodology (unlike any existing solution) for mitigating runtime side-channel vulnerabilities that utilizes timing values from real embedded devices to generate targeted software fixes. We implement DISARM to support C/C++/Java source codes and validate it across 22 standard benchmarks. DISARM outperforms state-of-the-art solutions such as PENDULUM and DifFuzzaR in terms of execution time overhead, code size overhead, and correctness on five different embedded/edge devices.

Timing/runtime side-channel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncovering novel mutational signatures by de novo extraction with SigProfilerExtractor

Mutational signature analysis is commonly performed in cancer genomic studies. Here, we present SigProfilerExtractor, an automated tool for de novo extraction of mutational signatures, and benchmark it against another 13 bioinformatics tools by using 34 scenarios encompassing 2,500 simulated signatures found in 60,000 synthetic genomes and 20,000 synthetic exomes. For simulations with 5% noise, reflecting high-quality datasets, SigProfilerExtractor outperforms other approaches by elucidating between 20% and 50% more true-positive signatures while yielding 5-fold less false-positive signatures. Applying SigProfilerExtractor to 4,643 whole-genome- and 19,184 whole-exome-sequenced cancers reveals four novel signatures. Two of the signatures are confirmed in independent cohorts, and one of these signatures is associated with tobacco smoking. In summary, this report provides a reference tool for analysis of mutational signatures, a comprehensive benchmarking of bioinformatics tools for extracting signatures, and several novel mutational signatures, including one putatively attributed to direct tobacco smoking mutagenesis in bladder tissues.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗