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Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues to transform ambition to action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, and accelerate learning through practice.
Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.
Radiation and reduced gravity pose biological risks to crewed deep space exploration. To better understand deep space radiation biology, the LEIA mission will measure charged particles and fast neutrons as well as yeast growth, metabolic rate, and bioengineered production of carotenoids at the lunar surface. LEIA will be delivered to the south polar region of the Moon by the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. The LEIA science concept of operations was developed to isolate radiation and partial gravity from other environmental conditions experienced by the payload. Due to CLPS integration requirements, there will be at least eight months from loading yeast into the payload until activation on the lunar surface. Replicate yeast strains will be loaded in a randomized complete block design to minimize batch differences in desiccation tolerance and positional effects in the microfluidics culture system. Temperature and relative humidity will be controlled throughout integration and flight to maintain yeast viability and to enable measurement of yeast growth parameters within the lunar surface operations timeframe, with the ground control matching environmental conditions where possible. LEIA is co-manifested with the European Space Agency’s PROSPECT mission, which will be operating a drill during yeast growth. Vibration translated through the lunar lander will be mitigated and quantified to account for potential impacts on LEIA optical measurements and yeast growth rate. Total space radiation dose, including the transit exposure from Earth to the Moon, will be measured to obtain more accurate charged particle and fast neutron dose rates on the lunar surface. These radiation data will also yield ground truth radiation dose experienced by the yeast during the mission. Quantifying these environmental factors impacting the LEIA payload will allow more accurate ground control experiments to better isolate the biological responses to radiation and reduced gravity at the lunar surface.
A set of multi-junction GaAs/Ge solar array test coupons were subjected to a sequence of 5-year increments of combined environmental exposure tests. The purpose of this test program is to understand the changes and degradation of the solar array panel components, including its ESD mitigation design features in their integrated form, after multiple years (up to 15) of simulated geosynchronous space environment. These tests consist of: UV radiation, electrostatic discharge (ESD), electron/proton particle radiation, thermal cycling, and ion thruster plume exposures. The solar radiation was produced using a Mercury-Xenon lamp with wavelengths in the UV spectrum ranging from 230 to 400 nm. The ESD test was performed in the inverted-gradient mode using a low-energy electron (2.6 - 6 keV) beam exposure. The ESD test also included a simulated panel coverglass flashover for the primary arc event. The electron/proton radiation exposure included both 1.0 MeV and 100 keV electron beams simultaneous with a 40 keV proton beam. The thermal cycling included simulated transient earth eclipse for satellites in geosynchronous orbit. With the increasing use of ion thruster engines on many satellites, the combined environmental test also included ion thruster exposure to determine whether solar array surface erosion had any impact on its performance. Before and after each increment of environmental exposures, the coupons underwent visual inspection under high power magnification and electrical tests that included characterization by LAPSS, Dark I-V, and electroluminescence. This paper discusses the test objective, test methodologies, and preliminary results after 5 years of simulated exposure.
EVA and Environmental Physiology Laboratory (EEPL) wanted to expand upon the previous CSRM Physiologic Map to visually demonstrate the impact of medications on various modeling inputs that map to the seven physiologic models. It is acknowledged various physiologic states present during EVA could impact drug pharmacokinetics (i.e. pressure changes, core body temperature), which could impact pharmacodynamics. However, that is outside the scope of this document. The medications below represent the authors’ assumption of what medications will be available and able to impact an Artemis EVA and do not include the full ISS formulary, a final Artemis medical kit, or additional personal medications for individual crewmember’s chronic medical conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has been collecting and evaluating the solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument data from NOAA 9 and NOAA 11 spacecraft since March 1985. Over 5 years (March 1985 to October 1990) of NOAA 9 (version 5.0) and over 4 years (January 1989 to June 1993) of NOAA 11 (version 6.0) reprocessed data are now available to the scientific community to study geophysical phenomena involving ozone. This paper examines the impact of the instrument performance on total ozone retrieval from the two instruments. We estimate that at the end of October 1990 the total postlaunch error for NOAA 9 due to instrument alone is -2.2%. A significant fraction of this error (-1.9%) is due to diffuser degradation which is not accounted for in the version 5 reprocessing. The estimate for NOAA 11 total postlaunch instrument error, at the end of June 1993, is -0.4%.
The orientation effects of six Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (EPS) components are evaluated for three environmental interactions: aerodynamic drag, atomic oxygen erosion, and orbital debris impact. Designers can directly apply these orientation factors to estimate the magnitude of the examined environment and the environmental effects for the EPS component of interest. The six EPS components are the solar array, photovoltaic module radiator, integrated equipment assembly, solar dynamic concentrator, solar dynamic radiator, and beta gimbal.
Spaceflight entails exposure to numerous environmental challenges with the potential to contribute to both musculoskeletal and vascular dysfunction. The purpose of this review is to describe current understanding of microgravity and radiation impacts on the mammalian skeleton and associated vasculature at the level of the whole organism. Recent experiments from spaceflight and groundbased models have provided fresh insights into how these environmental stresses influence mechanisms that are related to redox signaling, oxidative stress, and tissue dysfunction. Emerging mechanistic knowledge on cellular defenses to radiation and other environmental stressors, including microgravity, are useful for both screening and developing interventions against spaceflight-induced deficits in bone and vascular function.
The Space Plasma-High Voltage Drainage Experiment (SP-HVDE) provided a unique opportunity to study long term space environmental effects on materials because it was comprised of two identical experimental trays; one tray located on the ram facing side (D-10), and the other on the wake facing side (B-4) of the LDEF. This configuration allows for the comparison of identical materials exposed to two distinctly different environments. The purpose of this work is to document an assessment of the effects of five and three quarters years of low Earth orbital space exposure on materials comprising the SP-HVDE (experiment no. A0054). The findings of the materials investigation reported focus on atomic oxygen effects, micrometeor and debris impact site documentation, thermal property measurements, and environmentally induced contamination.
Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.
Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.
NASA Johnson Space Center White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) performed particle impact testing to determine whether there is a particle impact ignition hazard in the quick disconnects (QDs) in the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the International Space Station (ISS). Testing included standard supersonic and subsonic particle impact tests on 15-5 PH stainless steel, as well as tests performed on a QD simulator. This paper summarizes the particle impact tests completed at WSTF. Although there was an ignition in Test Series 4, it was determined the ignition was caused by the presence of a machining imperfection. The sum of all the test results indicates that there is no particle impact ignition hazard in the ISS ECLSS QDs. KEYWORDS: quick disconnect, high pressure, particle impact testing, stainless steel
Conventional spray application processes have poor transfer efficiencies, resulting in an exorbitant loss in materials, solvents, and time. Also, with ever tightening Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations and Occupational Safety and Health Administration requirements, the low transfer efficiencies have a significant impact on the quantities of materials and solvents that are released into the environment. High solids spray processes are also limited by material viscosities, thus requiring many passes over the surface to achieve a thickness in the 0.125 -inch range. This results in high application costs and a negative impact on the environment. Until recently, requirements for a 100 percent solid sprayable, environmentally friendly, lightweight thermal protection system that can be applied in a thick (greater than 0.125 inch) single-pass operation exceeded the capability of existing systems. Such coatings must be applied by hand lay-up techniques, especially for thermal and/or fire protection systems. The current formulation of these coatings has presented many problems such as worker safety, environmental hazards, waste, high cost, and application constraints. A system which can apply coatings without using hazardous materials would alleviate many of these problems. Potential applications include the aerospace thermal protective specialty coatings, chemical and petroleum industries that require fire-protection coatings that resist impact, chemicals, and weather. These markets can be penetrated by offering customized coatings applied by automated processes that are environmentally friendly.
Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to several failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, with the actual value depending upon exposure temperature, microstructure, etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Transformative Tools and Technology (TTT) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.
Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recessions, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, but it can vary due to exposure temperature, microstructure etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Revolutionary Tools and Methods (RTM) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.
The recent advances in the psychological aspects of space station design are discussed, including the impact of the increase in awareness of both the public in general as well as space environmental experts of the importance of psychological factors when designing space stations and training astronauts.
A summary of the Low Earth Orbital Environment, its impact on the Photovoltaic Power systems of the space station and the solutions implemented to resolve the environmental concerns or issues are described. Low Earth Orbital Environment (LEO) presents several concerns to the Photovoltaic power systems of the space station. These concerns include atomic oxygen interaction with the polymeric substrate of the solar arrays, ionized environment effects on the array operating voltage, the effects of the meteoroids and debris impacts and penetration through the different layers of the solar cells and their circuits, and the high energy particle and radiation effects on the overall solar array performance. Potential solutions to some of the degrading environmental interactions that will provide the photovoltaic power system of the space station with the desired life are also summarized.
A summary of the low earth orbital environment, its impact on the photovoltaic power systems of the Space Station and the solutions implemented to resolve the environmental concerns or issues are described. Low earth orbital environment (LEO) presents several concerns to the photovoltaic power systems of the Space Station. These concerns include atomic oxygen interaction with the polymeric substrate of the solar arrays, ionized environment effects on the array operating voltage, the effects of the meteoroids and debris impacts and penetration through the different layers of the solar cells and their circuits, and the high energy particle and radiation effects on the overall solar array performance. Potential solutions to some of the degrading environmental interactions that will provide the photovoltaic power system of the Space Station with the desired life are also summarized.