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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Design and test of an object-oriented GIS to map plant species in the Southern Rockies

Elevational and latitudinal shifts occur in the flora of the Rocky Mountains due to long term climate change. In order to specify which species are successfully migrating with these changes, and which are not, an object-oriented, image-based geographic information system (GIS) is being created to animate evolving ecological regimes of temperature and precipitation. Research at the Earth Data Analysis Center (EDAC) is developing a landscape model that includes the spatial, spectral and temporal domains. It is designed to visualize migratory changes in the Rocky Mountain flora, and to specify future community compositions. The object-oriented database will eventually tag each of the nearly 6000 species with a unique hue, intensity, and saturation value, so their movements can be individually traced. An associated GIS includes environmental parameters that control the distribution of each species in the landscape, and satellite imagery is used to help visualize the terrain. Polygons for the GIS are delineated as landform facets that are static in ecological time. The model manages these facets as a triangular irregular net (TIN), and their analysis assesses the gradual progression of species as they migrate through the TIN. Using an appropriate climate change model, the goal will be to stop the modeling process to assess both the rate and direction of species' change and to specify the changing community composition of each landscape facet.

Morain, Stanley A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Flight Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, postdeflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Adams, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Right Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Adams, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Advancing User Supports with a Structured How-To Knowledge Base for Earth Science Data

It is a challenge to access and process fast growing Earth science data from satellites and numerical models, which may be archived in very different data format and structures. NASA data centers, managed by the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), have developed a rich and diverse set of data services and tools with features intended to simplify finding, downloading, and working with these data. Although most data services and tools have user guides, many users still experience difficulties with accessing or reading data due to varying levels of familiarity with data services, tools, and/or formats. A type of structured online document, data recipe, were created in beginning 2013 by Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). A data recipe is the How-To document created by using the fixed template, containing step-by-step instructions with screenshots and examples of accessing and working with real data. The recipes has been found to be very helpful, especially to first-time-users of particular data services, tools, or data products. Online traffic to the data recipe pages is significant to some recipes. In 2014, the NASA Earth Science Data System Working Group (ESDSWG) for data recipes was established, aimed to initiate an EOSDIS-wide campaign for leveraging the distributed knowledge within EOSDIS and its user communities regarding their respective services and tools. The ESDSWG data recipe group started with inventory and analysis of existing EOSDIS-wide online help documents, and provided recommendations and guidelines and for writing and grouping data recipes. This presentation will overview activities of creating How-To documents at GES DISC and ESDSWG. We encourage feedback and contribution from users for improving the data How-To knowledge base.

how-to↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simulating Mars: Enabling Testing of the Perseverance Rover Sampling and Caching Subsystem on Earth

The development of the Sampling and Caching Subsystem (SCS) on the JPL Perseverance Rover lies at the intersection of testing, robotics, and geology. The SCS team established three primary system test campaigns and venues to aid in the development of SCS through verification and validation testing – Qualification Model Dirty Testing (QMDT) to provide a venue for testing in a Martian environment, Vehicle System Testbed (VSTB) for testing while integrated with the mobility subsystem on Martian-like terrain, and the Flight Software Testbed (FSWTB) for conducting tests using the flight motor controllers and software system on a hexapod which had the ability to simulate rover tilt. Each venue contributed a vital piece to the SCS building blocks. However, the QMDT venue operating within a 10-ft diameter Thermal Vacuum chamber to simulate Martian environment provided a sui generis opportunity to fine tune the entire sampling and caching process while building the team’s knowledge base about rock drillability, system life, and target selection. On Earth, because Martian rocks are not readily available, the development team must utilize geoanalogs to the rocks and regolith on Mars. Geologists on the team helped establish a set of standard rock types to use for Mars missions, like Basalt, Sandstone, Mudstone, Gypsum, and other related geoanalogs. These geoanalogs are characterized with a standard suite of tests for density, compressibility, and other characteristics to categorize potential drillability. This concept of drillability is what links the geoanalogs on Earth to the samples we collect on Mars. With the simulant characteristics defined, these geoanalog rocks are ready to be drilled into as we do on the Martian surface. A key aspect of interacting with the surface on Mars is rock target identification and selection. The Perseverance robotic system uses the on-board cameras, instrumentation, and software to collect enough information to identify potential scientific targets. With the targets identified, SCS can place the Corer and abrade the surface or collect a sample. For a ground test activity like QMDT, the test team did not have all of the camera and instrumentation systems that the rover does, so the team developed ground test equivalents to process a rock, build a target map, and define the target. The team constructed a Rock Scanning Station to build a 3D point cloud of the rock. This point cloud was then processed and evaluated with predefined and programmed criteria in a Target Downselect Tool. A primary output of the Target Downselect Tool is a defined target that can be uploaded directly to the robotic software system to simulate and build the robotic sequences used in tests. With these insights and programmatic definition of targets, the QMDT test team was able to make the same decisions that the Perseverance surface operations team does. In addition, valuable lessons learned from developing the target selection ground tools and using them were implemented into the tools used for surface operations.

Kim, Junggon↗

NASA NTRS2018

Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.

OSS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

The design of a model-following control system for helicopters

The design of an explicit model-following control system is described and the results of a ground-based simulation experiment investigating the performance and limitations of this control system for a hingeless-rotor and a teetering-rotor helicopter are reported. The explicit model was a linear, decoupled model such that the pilot commanded pitch attitude with the longitudinal cyclic, roll attitude with the lateral cyclic, yaw rate with the pedals, and earth-fixed vertical velocity with the collective. A new model-following performance criterion was developed to optimize the control-law design and to evaluate the model-following performance. The results of the simulation indicate that the performance of the model-following control system is dependent on the dynamics of the explicit model and on the limitations of the actuating system. Increases in the bandwidth of the explicit model placed higher demands on the control system and resulted in degraded model-following performance. Significant improvements in model-following performance were achieved when a control-law switching feature, which was designed to account for position- or rate-limited actuators, was included in the control system. The excellent overall model-following performance obtained for these two radically different helicopters indicates the flexibility and versatility of this control technique.

Hilbert, K. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

An ultrahigh-accuracy body pointing system for the Large Space Telescope

The Large Space Telescope (LST) program is aimed at placing a three-meter diffraction-limited telescope in a 270-nm orbit to perform astronomical observations that are not possible with earth-based telescopes. A complex simulation model is described which was developed to determine whether the stringent pointing stability requirements could be met. The model (programmed on a hybrid computer) included detailed dynamic representation of control moment gyros (CMGs) and reaction wheels (RWs), including their noise characteristics; dynamic sensor representation (including noise); shockmounts for the CMG actuators; detailed representation of an image motion compensation system; and a detailed flexible body vehicle model. Stability and performance studies based on the simulation model showed that the body pointing system will meet LST requirements in the presence of CMG vibrational disturbances and sensor noise. The recommended system consists of three orthogonally mounted RWs for primary short-term control, and a cluster of CMG actuators for continuous RW desaturation and vehicle maneuvering.

Rybak, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Planetary Boundary Layer Height from AIRS, MERRA-2, and GPS Radio Occultation Data Products at NASA GES DISC, and Insights from Their Profiles Intercomparison

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides archive and distribution services for several data products in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) category. As a new variable added to the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Version 6 support product, the PBL height from AIRS is derived based on the gradients of the retrieved relative humidity profile, and provides the atmospheric pressure at the top of the PBL over the ocean. The GES DISC also hosts the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2) product generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The PBL height from MERRA-2 is based on the total eddy diffusion coefficient of heat. The monthly PBL height has been made available in the Giovanni system (Giovanni is a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC providing a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data). Recently, the GES DISC began serving the global PBL height climatology product derived from the COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 and TerraSAR-X Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements from June 2006 to December 2015. In a previous study, we presented the monthly PBL height data from AIRS and MERRA-2 and demonstrated the GES DISC services which support data intercomparison, such as access, plotting, sub-setting, regridding, and generation of a multi-year monthly mean. We also provided intercomparison results, and found that different PBL height definitions contributed to significant differences of PBL height values between AIRS and MERRA-2. In this work, we present the 10-year seasonal climatologies from the AIRS, MERRA-2 and GPS-RO. We also used the cross section and vertical profile services in Giovanni to display and analyze the vertical atmosphere structure over regions where the PBL height derived from the AIRS and MERRA-2 are quite different. The examination of the AIRS and MERRA-2 three-dimensional data found that the relative humidity profiles had larger differences than the temperature profiles. The MERRA-2 gives more details than the AIRS for the vertical distribution of the humidity.

Ding, Feng↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling In-Space Aborts for NASA Human Exploration Missions

NASA is developing new capabilities to send humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) for the first time in several decades with the new Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle. As part of these capabilities, NASA is developing means to terminate missions prior to reaching mission destinations in order to save the crew in the event of critical life-threatening failures. This abort capability exists for both ascent and in-space operations. While the risk associated with ascent aborts has been modeled in detail, less has been done in the area of in-space aborts (e.g. Apollo 13). Recent efforts have started to better assess the risk associated with in-space aborts. This paper will describe these efforts. The in-space abort model described in this paper is part of a larger Cross-Program PRA (XPRA) model of exploration missions planned in the next few years to the vicinity of the Moon. The model consists of linked event trees and fault trees and associated rules built using the Systems Analysis Program for Hands-On Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) tool. This model structure is being built with flexibility in mind in order to perform risk trades and further expansion of the model.

Bigler, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Investigation of the effects of external current systems on the MAGSAT data utilizing grid cell modeling techniques

The feasibility of modeling magnetic fields due to certain electrical currents flowing in the Earth's ionosphere and magnetosphere was studied. Initial efforts were devoted to reading MAGSAT data tapes in preparation for further analysis of the MAGSAT data. Further efforts concern a modeling procedure developed to compute the magnetic field at satellite orbit due to hypothesized current distributions in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. This technique utilizes a linear current element representation of the large scale space current system.

Klumpar, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The influence of wintertime SST variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO diversity

Abstract Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) have been linked to the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events a full year in advance. However, the contribution of the WNP precursor to the temporal evolution and spatial complexity of ENSO remains unclear. Using the preindustrial experiment of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, a partially coupled experiment is conducted in which WNP SSTa are restored to the model climatology. By comparing the perturbed experiment to the control, we are able to clearly characterize ENSO’s response to WNP SST variability. We find that the WNP is predominantly linked to eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. Without SST variability in the WNP, central Pacific (CP) ENSO events are more likely to develop. This variation in ENSO flavor is controlled by how the WNP projects onto wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, which in turn impacts the discharge and recharge of ocean heat during the ENSO cycle. Specifically, the removal of SSTa in the WNP weakens the buildup of ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific, which then hinders the development of EP-type events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2007

Near Earth Object (NEO) Mitigation Options Using Exploration Technologies

This work documents the advancements in MSFC threat modeling and mitigation technology research completed since our last major publication in this field. Most of the work enclosed here are refinements of our work documented in NASA TP-2004-213089. Very long development times from start of funding (10-20 years) can be expected for any mitigation system which suggests that delaying consideration of mitigation technologies could leave the Earth in an unprotected state for a significant period of time. Fortunately there is the potential for strong synergy between architecture requirements for some threat mitigators and crewed deep space exploration. Thus planetary defense has the potential to be integrated into the current U.S. space exploration effort. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work.

Arnold William↗

NASA NTRS1982

Computational modeling for the study of multispectral sensor systems and concepts

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in remote sensing is being developed as a tool for studying multispectral sensor systems and concepts. The goal is to improve the efficiency of sensor systems for routine worldwide monitoring of earth resources and the environment. Preliminary computational results are presented for simple models of the natural variability of atmospheric radiative transfer and surface reflectance. These results illustrate the dependence of classification accuracy on the selection of sensor spectral channels and data processing algorithms.

Huck, F. O.↗