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At least 793 records · Page 44

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗

Proteomic and metabolomic profiling of acute and chronic stress events associated with military exercises

By characterizing physiological changes that occur in warfighters during simulated combat, we can start to unravel the key biomolecular components that are linked to physical and cognitive performance. Viable field-based sensors for the warfighter must be rapid and noninvasive. In an effort to facilitate this, we applied a multiomics pipeline to characterize the stress response in the saliva of warfighters to correlate biomolecular changes with overall performance and health. In this study, two different stress models were observed – one of chronic stress and one of acute stress. In both models, significant perturbations in the immune, metabolic, and protein manufacturing/processing systems were observed. However, when differentiating between stress models, specific metabolites associated with the “fight or flight” response and protein folding were seen to be discriminate of the acute stress model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Blind Benchmark Exercise for Spent Nuclear Fuel Decay Heat

The decay heat rate of five spent nuclear fuel assemblies of the pressurized water reactor type were measured by calorimetry at the interim storage for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden. Calculations of the decay heat rate of the five assemblies were performed by 20 organizations using different codes and nuclear data libraries resulting in 31 results for each assembly, spanning most of the current state-of-the-art practice. The calculations were based on a selected subset of information, such as reactor operating history and fuel assembly properties. The relative difference between the measured and average calculated decay heat rate ranged from 0.6% to 3.3% for the five assemblies. The standard deviation of these relative differences ranged from 1.9% to 2.4%.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

dose assessment↗

GenomeTrakr proficiency testing for foodborne pathogen surveillance: an exercise from 2015

Pathogen monitoring is becoming more precise as sequencing technologies become more affordable and accessible worldwide. This transition is especially apparent in the field of food safety, which has demonstrated how whole-genome sequencing (WGS) can be used on a global scale to protect public health. GenomeTrakr coordinates the WGS performed by public-health agencies and other partners by providing a public database with real-time cluster analysis for foodborne pathogen surveillance. Because WGS is being used to support enforcement decisions, it is essential to have confidence in the quality of the data being used and the downstream data analyses that guide these decisions. Routine proficiency tests, such as the one described here, have an important role in ensuring the validity of both data and procedures. In 2015, the GenomeTrakr proficiency test distributed eight isolates of common foodborne pathogens to participating laboratories, who were required to follow a specific protocol for performing WGS. Resulting sequence data were evaluated for several metrics, including proper labelling, sequence quality and new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Illumina MiSeq sequence data collected for the same set of strains across 21 different laboratories exhibited high reproducibility, while revealing a narrow range of technical and biological variance. The numbers of SNPs reported for sequencing runs of the same isolates across multiple laboratories support the robustness of our cluster analysis pipeline in that each individual isolate cultured and resequenced multiple times in multiple places are all easily identifiable as originating from the same source.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of stray radiation within a scanning proton therapy facility: EURADOS WG9 intercomparison exercise of active dosimetry systems

Purpose: To characterize stray radiation around the target volume in scanning proton therapy and study the performance of active neutron monitors. Methods: Working Group 9 of the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS WG9—Radiation protection in medicine) carried out a large measurement campaign at the Trento Centro di Protonterapia (Trento, Italy) in order to determine the neutron spectra near the patient using two extended-range Bonner sphere spectrometry (BSS) systems. In addition, the work focused on acknowledging the performance of different commercial active dosimetry systems when measuring neutron ambient dose equivalents, H{sup ∗}(10), at several positions inside (8 positions) and outside (3 positions) the treatment room. Detectors included three TEPCs—tissue equivalent proportional counters (Hawk type from Far West Technology, Inc.) and six rem-counters (WENDI-II, LB 6411, RadEye™ NL, a regular and an extended-range NM2B). Meanwhile, the photon component of stray radiation was deduced from the low-lineal energy transfer part of TEPC spectra or measured using a Thermo Scientific™ FH-40G survey meter. Experiments involved a water tank phantom (60 × 30 × 30 cm{sup 3}) representing the patient that was uniformly irradiated using a 3 mm spot diameter proton pencil beam with 10 cm modulation width, 19.95 cm distal beam range, and 10 × 10 cm{sup 2} field size. Results: Neutron spectrometry around the target volume showed two main components at the thermal and fast energy ranges. The study also revealed the large dependence of the energy distribution of neutrons, and consequently of out-of-field doses, on the primary beam direction (directional emission of intranuclear cascade neutrons) and energy (spectral composition of secondary neutrons). In addition, neutron mapping within the facility was conducted and showed the highest H{sup ∗}(10) value of ∼51 μSv Gy{sup −1}; this was measured at 1.15 m along the beam axis. H{sup ∗}(10) values significantly decreased with distance and angular position with respect to beam axis falling below 2 nSv Gy{sup −1} at the entrance of the maze, at the door outside the room and below detection limit in the gantry control room, and at an adjacent room (<0.1 nSv Gy{sup −1}). Finally, the agreement on H{sup ∗}(10) values between all detectors showed a direct dependence on neutron spectra at the measurement position. While conventional rem-counters (LB 6411, RadEye™ NL, NM2-458) underestimated the H{sup ∗}(10) by up to a factor of 4, Hawk TEPCs and the WENDI-II range-extended detector were found to have good performance (within 20%) even at the highest neutron fluence and energy range. Meanwhile, secondary photon dose equivalents were found to be up to five times lower than neutrons; remaining nonetheless of concern to the patient. Conclusions: Extended-range BSS, TEPCs, and the WENDI-II enable accurate measurements of stray neutrons while other rem-counters are not appropriate considering the high-energy range of neutrons involved in proton therapy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Endurance Exercise Performance Is Reduced after 6-h Dives at 1.35 ATA When Breathing 100% Oxygen Compared with Air

ABSTRACT Introduction Long-duration dives on consecutive days reduces muscular performance, potentially affecting military personnel. However, a paucity of data exists on how breathing gases affect endurance performance. This study examined the influence of long-duration diving with different breathing gases on aerobic endurance and handgrip performance. Methods Twenty-three military divers completed a single 6-h dive (single dive [SD]) and five 6-h dives over consecutive days (dive week [DW]) with 30-min cycling intervals using air (AIR,n= 13) or 100% oxygen (OXY,n= 10). Before and after SD and DW, subjects completed a maximum handgrip strength test, a handgrip endurance test at 40% maximal strength, and a time to exhaustion run. Results Handgrip endurance decreased after DW in OXY (SD, 1.9 ± 0.0 vs 1.4 ± 0.3 min) compared with AIR (1.8 ± 0.0 vs 1.8 ± 0.2 min) (P< 0.001). Run time decreased after SD (Pre, 20.7 ± 10.4 min; Post, 16.6 ± 7.6 min;P= 0.039) and DW (Pre, 21.6 ± 9.0 min; Post, 11.2 ± 4.0 min;P< 0.001) in OXY and after overall diving in AIR (Pre, 26.5 ± 10.2 min; Post, 22.3 ± 7.5 min;P= 0.025). V̇O 2 decreased after diving only in AIR (Pre, 42.6 ± 3.4 mL·kg −1 ⋅min −1 ; Post, 40.4 ± 3.7 mL·kg −1 ⋅min −1 ;P= 0.010). There were no other significant effects. Conclusions Breathing 100% oxygen during long-duration dives on consecutive days may exacerbate decreases in aerobic endurance and impairs handgrip endurance compared with air. Additional research is needed to elucidate mechanisms of action and possible mitigation strategies.

Sport Sciences↗

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Incorporating Full Elastodynamic Effects and Dipping Fault Geometries in Community Code Verification Exercises for Simulations of Earthquake Sequences and Aseismic Slip (SEAS)

ABSTRACT Numerical modeling of earthquake dynamics and derived insight for seismic hazard relies on credible, reproducible model results. The sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) initiative has set out to facilitate community code comparisons, and verify and advance the next generation of physics-based earthquake models that reproduce all phases of the seismic cycle. With the goal of advancing SEAS models to robustly incorporate physical and geometrical complexities, here we present code comparison results from two new benchmark problems: BP1-FD considers full elastodynamic effects, and BP3-QD considers dipping fault geometries. Seven and eight modeling groups participated in BP1-FD and BP3-QD, respectively, allowing us to explore these physical ingredients across multiple codes and better understand associated numerical considerations. With new comparison metrics, we find that numerical resolution and computational domain size are critical parameters to obtain matching results. Codes for BP1-FD implement different criteria for switching between quasi-static and dynamic solvers, which require tuning to obtain matching results. In BP3-QD, proper remote boundary conditions consistent with specified rigid body translation are required to obtain matching surface displacements. With these numerical and mathematical issues resolved, we obtain excellent quantitative agreements among codes in earthquake interevent times, event moments, and coseismic slip, with reasonable agreements made in peak slip rates and rupture arrival time. We find that including full inertial effects generates events with larger slip rates and rupture speeds compared to the quasi-dynamic counterpart. For BP3-QD, both dip angle and sense of motion (thrust versus normal faulting) alter ground motion on the hanging and foot walls, and influence event patterns, with some sequences exhibiting similar-size characteristic earthquakes, and others exhibiting different-size events. These findings underscore the importance of considering full elastodynamics and nonvertical dip angles in SEAS models, as both influence short- and long-term earthquake behavior and are relevant to seismic hazard.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗