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Results for “Decision making”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting of in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy

Abstract Forecasting models are a central part of many control systems, where high-consequence decisions must be made on long latency control variables. These models are particularly relevant for emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-guided instrumentation, in which prescriptive knowledge is needed to guide autonomous decision-making. Here we describe the implementation of a long short-term memory model (LSTM) for forecasting in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) data, one of the richest analytical probes of materials and chemical systems. We describe key considerations for data collection, preprocessing, training, validation, and benchmarking, showing how this approach can yield powerful predictive insight into order-disorder phase transitions. Finally, we comment on how such a model may integrate with emerging AI-guided instrumentation for powerful high-speed experimentation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian optimization with active learning of design constraints using an entropy-based approach

Abstract The design of alloys for use in gas turbine engine blades is a complex task that involves balancing multiple objectives and constraints. Candidate alloys must be ductile at room temperature and retain their yield strength at high temperatures, as well as possess low density, high thermal conductivity, narrow solidification range, high solidus temperature, and a small linear thermal expansion coefficient. Traditional Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods are not sufficient for exploring combinatorially-vast alloy design spaces, optimizing for multiple objectives, nor ensuring that multiple constraints are met. In this work, we propose an approach for solving a constrained multi-objective materials design problem over a large composition space, specifically focusing on the Mo-Nb-Ti-V-W system as a representative Multi-Principal Element Alloy (MPEA) for potential use in next-generation gas turbine blades. Our approach is able to learn and adapt to unknown constraints in the design space, making decisions about the best course of action at each stage of the process. As a result, we identify 21 Pareto-optimal alloys that satisfy all constraints. Our proposed framework is significantly more efficient and faster than a brute force approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated classification of big X-ray diffraction data using deep learning models

Abstract In current in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques, data generation surpasses human analytical capabilities, potentially leading to the loss of insights. Automated techniques require human intervention, and lack the performance and adaptability required for material exploration. Given the critical need for high-throughput automated XRD pattern analysis, we present a generalized deep learning model to classify a diverse set of materials’ crystal systems and space groups. In our approach, we generate training data with a holistic representation of patterns that emerge from varying experimental conditions and crystal properties. We also employ an expedited learning technique to refine our model’s expertise to experimental conditions. In addition, we optimize model architecture to elicit classification based on Bragg’s Law and use evaluation data to interpret our model’s decision-making. We evaluate our models using experimental data, materials unseen in training, and altered cubic crystals, where we observe state-of-the-art performance and even greater advances in space group classification.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted materials discovery using Bayesian algorithm execution

Rapid discovery and synthesis of future materials requires intelligent data acquisition strategies to navigate large design spaces. A popular strategy is Bayesian optimization, which aims to find candidates that maximize material properties; however, materials design often requires finding specific subsets of the design space which meet more complex or specialized goals. We present a framework that captures experimental goals through straightforward user-defined filtering algorithms. These algorithms are automatically translated into one of three intelligent, parameter-free, sequential data collection strategies (SwitchBAX, InfoBAX, and MeanBAX), bypassing the time-consuming and difficult process of task-specific acquisition function design. Our framework is tailored for typical discrete search spaces involving multiple measured physical properties and short time-horizon decision making. We demonstrate this approach on datasets for TiO 2 nanoparticle synthesis and magnetic materials characterization, and show that our methods are significantly more efficient than state-of-the-art approaches. Overall, our framework provides a practical solution for navigating the complexities of materials design, and helps lay groundwork for the accelerated development of advanced materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous phase mapping of gold nanoparticles synthesis with differentiable models of spectral shape

Autonomous experimentation–or self-driving labs–offers a systematic approach to accelerate materials discovery by integrating automated synthesis, characterization, and data-driven decision-making. We present a closed-loop workflow for the on-demand synthesis and structural characterization of colloidal gold nanoparticles, enabling direct mapping from composition to nanoscale structure. Our framework leverages differentiable models of spectral shape to address two central tasks in self-driving labs: (a) phase mapping, or identifying compositional regions with distinct structural behavior; and (b) material retrosynthesis, or optimizing compositions for target structure. Using functional data analysis, we develop a data-driven model with generative pre-training, active learning, and high-throughput experiments to predict spectral responses across composition space. We demonstrate the approach on seed-mediated growth of gold nanoparticles, showcasing its ability to extract design rules, reveal secondary interactions, and efficiently navigate morphology space. Gradient-based optimization of the models enables inverse design, making this a unified platform.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous fabrication of tailored defect structures in 2D materials using machine learning-enabled scanning transmission electron microscopy

Materials with tailored quantum properties can be engineered from atomic-scale assembly techniques, but existing methods often lack the agility and accuracy to precisely and intelligently control the manufacturing process. Here, we demonstrate a fully autonomous approach for fabricating atomic-level defects using electron beams in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) that combines advanced machine learning and automated beam control. As a proof of concept, we achieved controlled fabrication of MoS-nanowire (MoS-NW) edge structures by iterative and targeted exposure of MoS 2 monolayer to a focused electron beam to selectively eject sulfur atoms, utilizing high-angle annular dark-field (HAADF) imaging for feedback-controlled monitoring of structural evolution of defects. A machine learning framework combining a random forest model and a convolutional neural network (CNN) was developed to decode the HAADF image and accurately identify atomic positions and species. This atomic-level information was then integrated into an autonomous decision-making platform, which applied predefined fabrication strategies to instruct beam control about atomic sites to be ejected. The selected sites were subsequently exposed to a localized electron beam using an FPGA-controlled scan routine with precise control over beam positioning and duration. While the MoS-NW edge structures produced exhibit promising mechanical and electronic properties, the proposed methods to build the autonomous fabrication framework is material-agnostic and can be extended to other 2D materials for the creation of diverse defect structures and heterostructures beyond Mo S2 .

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multichannel meta-imagers for accelerating machine vision

Rapid developments in machine vision technology have impacted a variety of applications, such as medical devices and autonomous driving systems. These achievements, however, typically necessitate digital neural networks with the downside of heavy computational requirements and consequent high energy consumption. As a result, real-time decision-making is hindered when computational resources are not readily accessible. Here we report a meta-imager designed to work together with a digital back end to offload computationally expensive convolution operations into high-speed, low-power optics. Further, in this architecture, metasurfaces enable both angle and polarization multiplexing to create multiple information channels that perform positively and negatively valued convolution operations in a single shot. We use our meta-imager for object classification, achieving 98.6% accuracy in handwritten digits and 88.8% accuracy in fashion images. Owing to its compactness, high speed and low power consumption, our approach could find a wide range of applications in artificial intelligence and machine vision applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designer membraneless organelles sequester native factors for control of cell behavior

Subcellular compartmentalization of macromolecules increases flux and prevents inhibitory interactions to control biochemical reactions. Inspired by this functionality, we sought to build designer compartments that function as hubs to regulate the flow of information through cellular control systems. Here we report a synthetic membraneless organelle platform to control endogenous cellular activities through sequestration and insulation of native proteins. We engineer and express a disordered protein scaffold to assemble micron size condensates and recruit endogenous clients via genomic tagging with high-affinity dimerization motifs. By relocalizing up to ninety percent of a targeted enzymes to synthetic condensates, we efficiently control cellular behaviors, including proliferation, division, and cytoskeletal organization. Further, we demonstrate multiple strategies for controlled cargo release from condensates to switch cells between functional states. These synthetic organelles offer a powerful and generalizable approach to modularly control cell decision-making in a variety of model systems with broad applications for cellular engineering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting damaged buildings using real-time crowdsourced images and transfer learning

After significant earthquakes, we can see images posted on social media platforms by individuals and media agencies owing to the mass usage of smartphones these days. These images can be utilized to provide information about the shaking damage in the earthquake region both to the public and research community, and potentially to guide rescue work. This paper presents an automated way to extract the damaged buildings images after earthquakes from social media platforms such as Twitter and thus identify the particular user posts containing such images. Using transfer learning and ~ 6500 manually labelled images, we trained a deep learning model to recognize images with damaged buildings in the scene. The trained model achieved good performance when tested on newly acquired images of earthquakes at different locations and when ran in near real-time on Twitter feed after the 2020 M7.0 earthquake in Turkey. Furthermore, to better understand how the model makes decisions, we also implemented the Grad-CAM method to visualize the important regions on the images that facilitate the decision.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep compressed seismic learning for fast location and moment tensor inferences with natural and induced seismicity

Fast detection and characterization of seismic sources is crucial for decision-making and warning systems that monitor natural and induced seismicity. However, besides the laying out of ever denser monitoring networks of seismic instruments, the incorporation of new sensor technologies such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) further challenges our processing capabilities to deliver short turnaround answers from seismic monitoring. In response, this work describes a methodology for the learning of the seismological parameters: location and moment tensor from compressed seismic records. In this method, data dimensionality is reduced by applying a general encoding protocol derived from the principles of compressive sensing. The data in compressed form is then fed directly to a convolutional neural network that outputs fast predictions of the seismic source parameters. Thus, the proposed methodology can not only expedite data transmission from the field to the processing center, but also remove the decompression overhead that would be required for the application of traditional processing methods. An autoencoder is also explored as an equivalent alternative to perform the same job. We observe that the CS-based compression requires only a fraction of the computing power, time, data and expertise required to design and train an autoencoder to perform the same task. Implementation of the CS-method with a continuous flow of data together with generalization of the principles to other applications such as classification are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk

Abstract Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Basin-scale study of CO 2 storage in stacked sequence of geological formations

Commercial scale decarbonization through carbon capture and storage may likely involve many CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity. The close proximity could raise concerns over caprock integrity associated with reservoir pressure buildup and interference among adjacent projects. Commercial-scale injection will also require large prospective CO 2 storage resource and high injectivity in the targeted storage formations. To accommodate the need for both large resource and high injectivity, project operators could consider injecting CO 2 into a stacked sequence of formations. This analysis investigates the benefits of injecting CO 2 into a vertically stacked sequence of saline formations, over injecting the same amount of CO 2 into a single saline formation, in addressing these challenges. Our analysis shows that injecting into the stacked sequence mitigates the extent of pressure buildup among the stacked formations, while still achieving the same or greater target CO 2 storage volumes. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most reduced when each storage site distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 mass across the stacked sequence. This favorable case not only results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint, but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 46% compared to the single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. This analysis provides insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin.

42 ENGINEERING↗