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At least 793 records · Page 44

Energy Diagnostics and Impact Studies of FGGE Global Data Sets and GLAS GCM Simulations

An analysis of a case study of the favorable impact of satellite data assimilation on model cyclone prediction is discussed. Also discussed is the isolation of systematic biases in the vertical structure of satellite derived temperatures which in all probability negatively impact the prediction of ocean cyclones during periods of rapid baroclinic amplification. Access to CYBER 205 and transfer of software for Eulerian and quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic studies of atmospheric circulation are discussed.

Johnson, D. R.↗

Lagrangian observations of surface circulation at the Emperor Seamount chain

In a Kuroshio tracking experiment initiated in February 1977, two satellite-reporting buoys, drogued to 100-m depth, were released southeast of Kuyshu Island, Japan. These drifters crossed the Shatskiy Rise in the Kuroshio extension during May and October and then traversed the Emperor Seamount Chain. Although they reached the chain 117 days apart, their movements near the seamounts display remarkably similar patterns, demonstrating upstream meanders in the surface flow; cyclonic eddy activity immediately west of the chain; passage through the same gap associated with the Jingu and Nintoku seamounts; and a wavelike pattern present over the Hess Rise east of the chain. One drifter exhibited cyclonic eddy motion east of the chain in the lee of the Kinmei Seamount.

Vastano, A. C.↗

A comparison of observed and forecast energetics over North America

The observed kinetic energy balance is calculated over North America and compared with that computed from forecast fields for the 13-15 January 1979 cyclone. The FGGE upper-air rawinsonde network serves as the observational database while the forecast energetics are derived from a numerical integration with the GLAS fourth-order general circulation model initialized at 00 GMT 13 January. Maps of the observed and predicted kinetic energy and eddy conversion are in good qualitative agreement, although the model eddy conversion tends to be 2 to 3 times stronger than the observed values. Both the forecast and observations exhibit the lower and upper tropospheric maxima in vertical profiles of kinetic energy generation and dissipation typically found in cyclonic disturbances. An interesting time lag is noted in the observational analysis with the maximum observed kinetic energy occurring 12 h later than the maximum eddy conversion over the same region.

Baker, W. E.↗

Discrimination of a major stratospheric warming event in February-March 1984 from earlier minor warmings

As part of its responsibility for stratospheric monitoring, the Climate Analysis Center derives time trends of various dynamic parameters from NMC stratospheric analyses. Selected figures from this stratospheric monitoring data base are published in Climate Diagnostics Bulletin in March and October, after each hemispheric winter. During the Northern Hemisphere winter of December 1983-February 1984 several warming events may be seen in the plot of 60 deg. N zonal mean temperatures for 10 mb. Minor warmings may be noted in early December, late December, mid January and early February. A major warming with the 60 deg. N zonal mean temperatures reaching -40C is observed in late February, associated with a circulation reversal. In all of the minor warming episodes, there is a polarward movement of the Aleutian anticyclone; however, at 10 mb the North Pole remains in the cyclonic circulation of the stratospheric vortex which is not displaced far from its usual position. In the case of the later February major warming, the 10 mb circulation pattern over the North Pole is anticyclonic, and the cyclonic circulation has moved to the south and east with a considerable elongation. Cross sections of heat transport and momentum transport are not dramatically different for the minor and major warming episodes.

Johnson, K. W.↗

A review of major east coast snowstorms

The surface and upper-level characteristics in selected wind, pressure, and temperature fields of some significant east coast cyclones are studied. The surface, 200, 300, 500, 700, and 850 mb charts of 18 case studies of storms are analyzed. The surface patterns are described in terms of the type of cyclone, the variation in rate of motion, the effect of coastal frontogenesis on the storms, sea level pressures, and the deepening rate of pressure. The influence of upper-level troughs, ridges, jet streaks, location of wind amplification, and time on cyclogenesis is examined.

Kocin, P. J.↗

Transient growth of damped baroclinic waves

A solution of the linear initial value problem for the model of Eady with the inclusion of Ekman damping is presented. This model exhibits large transient growth of perturbations for synoptic cyclone spatial scales and a realistic value of the vertical turbulent viscosity coefficient despite the fact that all normal modes are exponentially decaying. Similar results are found for the model of Charney, implying that exponential instability cannot, in general, serve to explain the occurrence of cyclone scale disturbances in midlatiudes. Rather these are seen to arise additionally and perhaps predominantly from the release of mean flow potential energy by favorably configured initial perturbations. The Petterssen criterion for midlatitude cyclogenesis results naturally from this development as does its extension to the formation of subtropical monsoon depressions. Implications for the maintenance of midlatitude temperature gradients are discussed.

Farrell, B.↗

The possible influence of upstream upper-level baroclinic processes on the development of the QE II storm

An analysis of the QE II storm of September 9-11, 1978 presents evidence for the existence of upper-level baroclinic processes upstream of the rapidly developing cyclone. The analysis shows that a deepening shortwave trough was located 400 to 500 km upstream of the site of the storm 12 h prior to rapid cyclogenesis. The trough was associated with: (1) a polar jet marked by 65 m/s winds in its core and significant vertical and horizontal wind shear, (2) positive vorticity advection and divergence at the 300 mb level, and (3) an intense frontal zone that extended from 300 mb down to the surface. It also appears that a tropopause fold likely extruded stratospheric air down to the 700-800 mb level, 400-500 km upstream of the surface low and 12 h prior to the explosive development phase of the cyclone. These findings raise questions about Gyakum's (1983) assertion that the QE II storm developed in an area in which the baroclinic support was confined to the lower troposphere and the related assertion by Anthes et al. (1983) that upper-level forcing upstream of the area of rapid cyclogenesis was weak and apparently not important in this case.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Dynamics and energetics of the South Pacific Convergence Zone during FGGE SOP-1

The major research objectives are to diagnose the physical processes responsible for the maintenance of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and to examine the role of the SPCZ in the large-scale circulation patterns of the Southern Hemisphere. To accomplish these objectives researchers used several data sources which include: a modified set of Level III-b upper air analyses, originally produced by ECMWF (Vincent, 1982); subjectively analyzed surface analyses for the South Pacific based on island station reports (Vincent, 1985); outgoing longwave radiation values supplied to us by NOAA/NESDIS; and equivalent black body temperatures and precipitation rates derived by Robertson. In the past year researchers found that wave number four plays an inportant role in the Southern Hemisphere tropics during the 15-day period when the sPCZ was a dominant feature, particularly with regard to the baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic energy (Huang and Vincent, 1985). The convectively-active SPCZ area was found to make a significant contribution to this conversion process; thus, it appears that baroclinic effects and latent heating are important in maintaining the SPCZ. Recently efforts concentrated on two research tasks, an examination of cyclone activity within the SPCZ (Kann, 1985; Vincent, 1985; Vincent and Kann, 1985) and a study of the heat and moisture budgets in the South Pacific (Miller, et al., 1985). It was found that cyclonic disturbances occurred with regularity in the Zone from 10 to 17 January.

Vincent, D. G.↗

Comparative energetics of the observed and simulated global circulation during the special observing periods of FGGE

Energetics of the observed and simulated global circulation are evaluated in the zonal spectral domain for the special observing periods of FGGE. The study utilizes GLA analyses of FGGE observational data and parallel simulation experiments. There are noticeable differences in energy transformations between the observation and simulation during SOP-1. These include the baroclinic conversion C(n) by the zonal mean motion and short-wave disturbances, and the nonlinear wave-wave interaction L(n) at the long and short waves. The energy transformations of the short-wave disturbances are much more intense in the simulated circulation than in the observation. However, good agreement is noted in the conversion and dissipation of kinetic energy in the large- and cyclone-wave range n = 1-10. Spectral distributions of global energy transformations at the long- and cyclone-wave range indicate that the SOP-2 simulation agrees more closely with the observed fields than the SOP-1 simulation. Other pertinent points of energetics diagnosis are also included in the discussion.

Kung, E. C.↗

A study of GLAS and UCLA model forecasts of explosive maritime cyclogenesis

The explosive development of a maritime cyclone was examined with a numeric model of a cyclone which occurred during the FGGE Special Observing Period One in January 1979. The storm exhibited a Petterssen type-system frontal wave development. The model used was a nine-level, fourth-order coarse-mesh GLAS model initialized with FGGE level II-B data. Two versions of 72 hr synoptic-scale predictions were performed for the storm: with and without the input of meteorological satellite data. Attention was focused on the heat, mass and vorticity budgets of the storm, starting 24 hr before storm onset. The inclusion of satellite data, due to the poor quality of remotely sensed wind fields, degraded the performance of the model.

Peak, J. E.↗

Comparative energetics diagnosis of the observed and simulated blockings in the Northern Hemisphere

The blocking phenomena, in particular winter blocking, are stuided using energetic diagnostics. Sequences of blockings during the FGGE winter and summer in observed and simulated circulations, and energy transformations associated with blockings are examined. It is observed that the simulation of the Northern Hemisphere circulation correlates better with the observed circulation during summer than during winter. It is noted that the observed winter blockings are maintained by the supply of kinetic energy to the ultralong waves from the shorter cyclone scales through nonlinear wave-wave interaction; in the simulated winter blocking, the energy converted at the cyclone scale cascades down to the shorter wave range; and the summer blockings are supported by the baroclinic conversion of long waves in both the observed and simulated circulations.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

Suggested hurricane operational scenario for GOES I-M

Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasts require optimum use of remote sensing capabilities, because conventional data sources cannot provide the necessary spatial and temporal data density over tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. In 1989, the first of a series of geostationary weather satellites, GOES 1-M, will be launched with the capability for simultaneous imaging and sounding. Careful scheduling of the GOES 1-M will enable measurements of both the wind and mass fields over the entire tropical cyclone activity area. The document briefly describes the GOES 1-M imager and sounder, surveys the data needs for hurricane forecasting, discusses how geostationary satellite observations help to meet them, and proposes a GOES 1-M schedule of observations and hurricane relevant derived products.

Menzel, W. P.↗

The use of available potential energy to evaluate the impact of satellite data on numerical model analysis during FGGE

To evaluate the effect of the FGGE satellite observing system, the following two data sets were compared by examining the available potential energy (APE) and extratropical cyclone activity within the entire global domain during the first Special Observing Period: (1) the complete FGGE IIIb set, which incorporates satellite soundings, and (2) a NOSAT set which incorporates only conventional data. The time series of the daily total APEs indicate that NOSAT values are larger than the FGGE values, although in the Northern Hemisphere the differences are negligible. Analyses of cyclone scale features revealed only minor differences between the Northern Hemisphere FGGE and NOSAT analyses. On the other hand, substantial differences were revealed in the two Southern Hemisphere analyses, where the satellite soundings apparently add detail to the FGGE set.

Horn, Lyle H.↗

Diagnostic study of explosive cyclogenesis during FGGE

Two rapidly developing extratropical maritime cyclones (one, developed during January 13-15, 1979, along an intense frontal zone south of Japan, the other, of January 26-27, 1979, in a polar mass over the North Atlantic) were investigated using the FGGE data and ECMWF level IIIb analyses to describe the structure and dynamics of these events. Although the cyclones evolved from a strong low-level baroclinic zone without initial large midtropospheric vorticity advection, thus resembling the Petterssen type A development, rapid deepening occurred in both cases when an approaching upper tropospheric jet with appreciable shear vorticity advection became favorably superposed over the surface low. During the development period, stability decreased in the low troposphere, aiding in the rapid development of an intense mass-circulation and low tropospheric vorticity production by the divergence term. The results suggest that upper-level forcing plays a greater role in the initiation of explosive oceanic development than is suggested by the Petterssen and Smebye (1971) description.

Wash, Carlyle H.↗

Bangladesh Agro-Climatic Environmental Monitoring Project

The Agro-Climatic Environmental Monitoring Project (ACEMP) is based on a Participating Agency Service Agreement (PASA) between the Agency for International Development (AID) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In FY80, the Asia Bureau and Office of Federal Disaster Assistance (OFDA), worked closely to develop a funding mechanism which would meet Bangladesh's needs both for flood and cyclone warning capability and for application of remote sensing data to development problems. In FY90, OFDA provided for a High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) receiving capability to improve their forecasting accuracy for cyclones, flooding and storm surges. That equipment is primarily intended as a disaster prediction and preparedness measure. The ACEM Project was designed to focus on the development applications of remote sensing technology. Through this Project, AID provided to the Bangladesh Government (BDG) the equipment, technical assistance, and training necessary to collect and employ remote sensing data made available by satellites as well as hydrological data obtained from data collection platforms placed in major rivers. The data collected will enable the BDG to improve the management of its natural resources.

Vermillion, C.↗

Fiji South Pacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System Project (SPSSD/WS)

In August 1986, a South Pacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System (SPSSD/WS) was installed by NASA at the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) in Nadi, Fiji. The system consists of a 6.1 meter parabolic dish antenna, a satellite ground station, and computer and image processing facilities. The system allows tracking of all South Pacific tropical cyclones with real-time, high resolution reception of visible and infrared cloud images from both the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) and the U.S. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-WEST). Training was also provided in system usage and operations. In December 1986, the U.S. AID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) commissioned an evaluation of the SPSSD/WS. The system was recognized as one of the most advanced of its kind in the Pacific Basin. It has functioned successfully since installation with only minor interruptions, and it has become the prime tool in supporting the FMS' role as the regional tropical cyclone warning center for the Southwest Pacific. However, it was noted that there are needed enhancements to the system.

Vermillion, C.↗

Identification of atmospheric fronts over the ocean with microwave measurements of water vapor and rain

This paper describes some basic research techniques and algorithms developed to diagnose fronts in cyclonic storms over the ocean with data from satellite-borne microwave radiometers. Methods are developed for flagging strong gradients in integrated atmospheric water vapor and the presence of rain by using data from the SSMR on board the polar orbiting Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites. Examination of 65 frontal systems showed that the water vapor gradient flag correctly identified 86 percent of the fronts, while the precipitation flagged 91 percent. The two types of flags emphasize different portions of the cyclone and are therefore complementary. Ultimately, these techniques are intended for operational use with data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager which was launched in June 1987 on a satellite in the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP).

Katsaros, Kristina B.↗

Annular denuders for use in global climate and stratospheric measurements of acidic gases and particles

Measurements of acidic and basic gases that coexist with fine particle (less than 2.5 micron) may be useful for determining the impact of these species on global climate changes and determining species that influence stratospheric ozone levels. Annular denuders are well suited for this purpose. A new concentric annular denuder system, consisting of a three channel denuder, a Teflon coated cyclone preseparator, and a multistage filter pack was developed, evaluated, and shown to provide reliable atmospheric measurements of SO2, HNO2, HNO3, NH3, SO4(=), NH4(+), NO3(-), and H(+). For example, the precision of the annular denuder for the ambient measurements of HNO3 and nitrates at concentrations between 0.1 to 3 microgram/cu m was + or - 12 and 16 pct., respectively. The 120 x 25 mm three channel denuder is encased in a stainless steel sheath and has annular spaces that are 1 mm wide. This design was shown to have nearly identical capacity for removal of SO2 as conventional 210 x 25 mm single channel denuder configurations. The cyclone preseparator was designed and tested to have a D sub 50 cutoff diameter of 2.5 micron and minimal retention of HNO3.

Stevens, Robert K.↗