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NASA NTRS2009

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase IV: Central Florida Flow Regime Based Climatologies of Lightning Probabilities

The threat of lightning is a daily concern during the warm season in Florida. Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. Previously, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) calculated the gridded lightning climatologies based on seven flow regimes over Florida for 1-, 3- and 6-hr intervals in 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-NM diameter range rings around the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and eight other airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) county warning area (CWA). In this update to the work, the AMU recalculated the lightning climatologies for using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The AMU included all data regardless of flow regime as one of the stratifications, added monthly stratifications, added three years of data to the period of record and used modified flow regimes based work from the AMU's Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool, Phase II. The AMU made changes so the 5- and 10-NM radius range rings are consistent with the aviation forecast requirements at NWS MLB, while the 20- and 30-NM radius range rings at the SLF assist the Spaceflight Meteorology Group in making forecasts for weather Flight Rule violations during Shuttle landings. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface with the new data.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2013

Athena in 2013 and Beyond

TRISA, the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity, received Athena 1 in 2009. They first used Athena 3 to support studies in 2011. This paper describes Athena 4, which they started using in October 2012. A final section discusses issues that are being considered for incorporation into Athena 5 and later. Athena's objective is to help skilled intelligence analysts anticipate the likely consequences of complex courses of action that use our country's entire power base, not just our military capabilities, for operations in troubled regions of the world. Measures of effectiveness emphasize who is in control and the effects of our actions on the attitudes and well-being of civilians. The planning horizon encompasses not weeks or months, but years. Athena is a scalable, laptop-based simulation with weekly resolution. Up to three months of simulated time can pass between game turns that require user interaction. Athena's geographic scope is nominally a country, but can be a region within a county. Geographic resolution is "neighborhoods", which are defined by the user and may be actual neighborhoods, provinces, or anything in between. Models encompass phenomena whose effects are expected to be relevant over a medium-term planning horizon-three months to three years. The scope and intrinsic complexity of the problem dictate a spiral development process. That is, the model is used during development and lessons learned are used to improve the model. Even more important is that while every version must consider the "big picture" at some level of detail, development priority is given to those issues that are most relevant to currently anticipated studies. For example, models of the delivery and effectiveness of information operations messaging were among the additions in Athena 4.

Chamberlain, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Geospatial Modeling of Asthma Population in Relation to Air Pollution

Current observations indicate that asthma is growing every year in the United States, specific reasons for this are not well understood. This study stems from an ongoing research effort to investigate the spatio-temporal behavior of asthma and its relatedness to air pollution. The association between environmental variables such as air quality and asthma related health issues over Mississippi State are investigated using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools and applications. Health data concerning asthma obtained from Mississippi State Department of Health (MSDH) for 9-year period of 2003-2011, and data of air pollutant concentrations (PM2.5) collected from USEPA web resources, and are analyzed geospatially to establish the impacts of air quality on human health specifically related to asthma. Disease mapping using geospatial techniques provides valuable insights into the spatial nature, variability, and association of asthma to air pollution. Asthma patient hospitalization data of Mississippi has been analyzed and mapped using quantitative Choropleth techniques in ArcGIS. Patients have been geocoded to their respective zip codes. Potential air pollutant sources of Interstate highways, Industries, and other land use data have been integrated in common geospatial platform to understand their adverse contribution on human health. Existing hospitals and emergency clinics are being injected into analysis to further understand their proximity and easy access to patient locations. At the current level of analysis and understanding, spatial distribution of Asthma is observed in the populations of Zip code regions in gulf coast, along the interstates of south, and in counties of Northeast Mississippi. It is also found that asthma is prevalent in most of the urban population. This GIS based project would be useful to make health risk assessment and provide information support to the administrators and decision makers for establishing satellite clinics in future.

Kethireddy, Swatantra R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ten Years of Land Cover Change on the California Coast Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of Marin and San Francisco Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth areas were delineated as burned forest areas in the Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) from the 1995 Vision Fire. LEDAPS-detected disturbance patterns on Inverness Ridge, PRNS in areas observed with dieback of tanoak and bay laurel trees was consistent with defoliation by sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum). LEDAPS regrowth pixels were detected over much of the predominantly grassland/herbaceous cover of the Olema Valley ranchland near PRNS. Extensive restoration of perennial vegetation cover on Crissy Field, Baker Beach and Lobos Creek dunes in San Francisco was identified. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology will be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.

Land Cover Change↗
NASA NTRS2013

STEM Engagement and Robotics Workshops in the Community

It is my objective to inspire and engage students and the public in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) through hands on STEM activities during the City of Palmdale's Thursday Nights on the Square (TNOTS) as well as various robotics workshops throughout the AV and the San Bernardino County.

STEM↗
NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Sinuous Tumulus over an Active Lava Tube at Klauea Volcano: Evolution, Analogs, and Hazard Forecasts

Inflation of narrow tube-fed basaltic lava flows (tens of meters across), such as those confined by topography, can be focused predominantly along the roof of a lava tube. This can lead to the development of an unusually long tumulus, its shape matching the sinuosity of the underlying lava tube. Such a situation occurred during Klauea Volcanos (Hawaii, USA) ongoing East Rift Zone eruption on a lava tube active from July through November 2010. Short-lived breakouts from the tube buried the flanks of the sinuous, ridge-like tumulus, while the tumulus crest, its surface composed of lava formed very early in the flows emplacement history, remained poised above the surrounding younger flows. At least several of these breakouts resulted in irrecoverable uplift of the tube roof. Confined sections of the prehistoric Carrizozo and McCartys flows (New Mexico, USA) display similar sinuous, ridge-like features with comparable surface age relationships. We contend that these distinct features formed in a fashion equivalent to that of the sinuous tumulus that formed at Kīlauea in 2010. Moreover, these sinuous tumuli may be analogs for some sinuous ridges evident in orbital images of the Tharsis volcanic province on Mars. The short-lived breakouts from the sinuous tumulus at Kīlauea were caused by surges in discharge through the lava tube, in response to cycles of deflation and inflation (DI events) at Kīlauea's summit. The correlation between DI events and subsequent breakouts aided in lava flow forecasting. Breakouts from the sinuous tumulus advanced repeatedly toward the sparsely populated Kalapana Gardens subdivision, destroying two homes and threatening others. Hazard assessments, including flow occurrence and advance forecasts, were relayed regularly to the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense to aid their lava flow hazard mitigation efforts while this lava tube was active.

volcanic hazards↗
NASA NTRS2013

Athena in 2013 and Beyond

TRISA, the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity, received Athena 1 in 2009. They first used Athena 3 to support studies in 2011. This paper describes Athena 4, which they started using in October 2012. A final section discusses issues that are being considered for incorporation into Athena 5 and later. Athena's objective is to help skilled intelligence analysts anticipate the likely consequences of complex courses of action that use our country's entire power base, not just our military capabilities, for operations in troubled regions of the world. Measures of effectiveness emphasize who is in control and the effects of our actions on the attitudes and well being of civilians. The planning horizon encompasses not weeks or months, but years.Athena is a scalable, laptop-based simulation with weekly resolution. Up to three months of simulated time can pass between game turns that require user interaction. Athena's geographic scope is nominally a country, but can be a region within a county. Geographic resolution is "neighborhoods", which are defined by the user and may be actual neighborhoods, provinces, or anything in between. Models encompass phenomena whose effects are expected to be relevant over a medium-term planning horizon--three months to three years.The scope and intrinsic complexity of the problem dictate a spiral development process. That is, the model is used during development and lessons learned are used to improve the model. Even more important is that while every version must consider the "big picture" at some level of detail, development priority is given to those issues that are most relevant to currently anticipated studies. For example, models of the delivery and effectiveness of information operations messaging were among the additions in Athena 4.

Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic (DIM↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bone Turnover Does Not Reflect Skeletal Aging in Older Hispanic Men with Type 2 Diabetes

The paradox of fragility fracture in the presence of non-osteoporotic bone mineral density in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) makes it difficult to clinically predict fracture in this vulnerable group. Serum osteocalcin (OC), a marker of bone turnover, increases with normal skeletal aging indicating risk of fracture. However, OC has been reported to be lower in patients with DM2. An inverse association between higher glycated hemoglobin levels (HbA1c) and lower serum OC in older DM2 patients triggered discussions encouraging further investigation. A key question to be answered is whether changes in glucose metabolism is responsible for bone metabolic changes, ultimately leading to increased risk of fragility fractures in DM2 patients. While these studies were conducted among Caucasian and Asian populations, this has not been studied in Hispanic populations who suffer from a higher prevalence of DM2. The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) in Texas is a homogeneous Hispanic cohort known to have high prevalence of DM2 (30%). Our preliminary data from this cohort reported OC levels lower than the suggested threshold for fragility fracture in post-menopausal women. We further investigated whether bone turnover in older CCHC adults with DM2 show a normal pattern of skeletal aging. Samples and data were obtained from a nested cohort of 68 (21 men and 47 women) Hispanic older adults (≥50 years) who had a diagnosis of DM2. Given high prevalence of uncontrolled DM2 in this cohort, we divided population into two groups: i) poor DM2 control with HbA1c level ≥8 (48% men and 38% women) and ii) good DM2 control with HbA1c level <8). A crosssectional analysis documented associations between serum OC and age adjusted HbA1c levels. There was no direct association between age and OC concentrations in our study. Higher HbA1c was associated with lower serum OC in men (odds ratio -6.5, 95% confidence interval -12.7 to - 0.3, p < 0.04). No significant associations were identified in women. Bone turnover in older Hispanic men with DM2 in our study does not reflect normal pattern of skeletal aging. It is unclear why similar results were not identified in women. We will continue to follow this cohort to investigate longitudinal trend of changes of bone turnover and its relationship with HbA1c in both men and women of this cohort.

Rianon, N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Landscape Patterns of Burn Severity in the Soberanes Fire of 2016

The Soberanes Fire started on July 22, 2016 in Monterey County on the California Central Coast from an illegal campfire. This fire burned for 10 weeks at a record cost of more than $208 million for protection and control. A progressive analysis of the normalized burn ratio from the Landsat satellite showed that the final high burn severity (HBS) area for the Soberanes Fire comprised 22 percent of the total area burned, whereas final moderate burn severity (MBS) area comprised about 10 percent of the total area burned of approximately 53,470 ha (132,130 acres). The resulting landscape pattern of burn severity classes from the 2016 Soberanes Fire revealed that the majority of HBS area was located in the elevation zone between 500 and 1000 m, in the slope zone between 15 percent and 30 percent, or on south-facing aspects.

Soberanes Fire↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

projection↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prospects of the ICESat-2 Laser Altimetry Mission for Savanna Ecosystem Structural Studies Based on Airborne Simulation Data

The next planned spaceborne lidar mission is the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2), which will use the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) sensor, a photon counting technique. To pre-validate the capability of this mission for studying three dimensional vegetation structure in savannas, we assessed the potential of the measurement approach to estimate canopy height in an oak savanna landscape. We used data from the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), an airborne photon counting lidar sensor developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. ATLAS-like data was generated using the MATLAS simulator, which adjusts MABEL data's detected number of signal and noise photons to that expected from the ATLAS instrument. Transects flown over the Tejon ranch conservancy in Kern County, California, USA were used for this work. For each transect we chose to use data from the near infrared channel that had the highest number of photons. We segmented each transect into 50 m, 25 m and 14 m long blocks and aggregated the photons in each block into a histogram based on their elevation values. We then used an automated algorithm to identify cut off points where the cumulative density of photons from the highest elevation indicates the presence of the canopy top and likewise where such cumulative density from the lowest elevation indicates the mean terrain elevation. MABEL derived height metrics were moderately correlated to discrete return lidar (DRL) derived height metrics r(sub 2) and RMSE values ranging from 0.60 to 0.73 and 2.9 m to 4.4 m respectively) but MATLAS simulation resulted in more modest correlations with DRL indices r(sub 2) ranging from 0.5 to 0.64 and RMSE from 3.6 m to 4.6 m). Simulations also indicated that the expected number of signal photons from ATLAS will be substantially lower, a situation that reduces canopy height estimation precision especially in areas of low density vegetation cover. On the basis of the simulated data, there is reason to believe that the ability of ICESat-2 to estimate height in savannas will be comparable to the original ICESat mission although the respective sensors have different measurement principles.

Gwenzi, David↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving the Monitoring of Crop Productivity Using Spaceborne Solar-Induced Fluorescence

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Guan, Kaiyu↗
NASA NTRS2016

Gridded National Inventory of U.S. Methane Emissions

We present a gridded inventory of US anthropogenic methane emissions with 0.1 deg x 0.1 deg spatial resolution, monthly temporal resolution, and detailed scale dependent error characterization. The inventory is designed to be onsistent with the 2016 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Sinks (GHGI) for 2012. The EPA inventory is available only as national totals for different source types. We use a widerange of databases at the state, county, local, and point source level to disaggregate the inventory and allocate the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions for individual source types. Results show large differences with the EDGAR v4.2 global gridded inventory commonly used as a priori estimate in inversions of atmospheric methane observations. We derive grid-dependent error statistics for individual source types from comparison with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) regional inventory for Northeast Texas. These error statistics are independently verified by comparison with the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) grid-resolved emission inventory. Our gridded, time-resolved inventory provides an improved basis for inversion of atmospheric methane observations to estimate US methane emissions and interpret the results in terms of the underlying processes.

Methane↗
NASA NTRS2017

Integrating Water Supply Constraints into Irrigated Agricultural Simulations of California

Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water demand from plants and water supply from irrigation systems. We coupled the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to link regional water supplies and management with field-level water demand and crop growth. WEAP-DSSAT was deployed and evaluated over Yolo County in California for corn, rice, and wheat. WEAP-DSSAT is able to reproduce the results of DSSAT under well-watered conditions and reasonably simulate observed mean yields, but has difficulty capturing yield interannual variability. Constraining irrigation supply to surface water alone reduces yields for all three crops during the 1987-1992 drought. Corn yields are reduced proportionally with water allocation, rice yield reductions are more binary based on sufficient water for flooding, and wheat yields are least sensitive to irrigation constraints as winter wheat is grown during the wet season.

Agriculture; Irrigation; Water Resources Managemen↗
NASA NTRS2016

Meteorite Falls and the Fragmentation of Meteorites

In order to understand the fragmentation of objects entering the atmosphere and why some produce more fragments than others, I have searched the Meteoritical Society database for meteorites greater than 20 kilograms that fell in the USA, China, and India. I also studied the video and film records of 21 fireballs that produced meteorites. A spreadsheet was prepared that noted smell, fireball, explosion, whistling, rumbling, the number of fragments, light, and impact sounds. Falls with large numbers of fragments were examined to look for common traits. These were: the Norton County aubrite, explosion and a flare greater than 100 fragments; the Forest City H5 chondrite explosion, a flare, a dust trail, 505 specimens; the Richardton H5 chondrite explosion and light, 71 specimens; the Juancheng H5 chondrite explosion, a rumbling, a flare, a dust trail,1000 specimens; the Tagish Lake C2 chondrite explosion, flare, dust trail, 500 specimens. I conclude that fragmentation is governed by the following: (1) Bigger meteors undergo more stress which results in more specimens; (2) Harder meteorites also require more force to break them up which will cause greater fragmentation; (3) Force and pressure are directly proportional during falls. General observations made were; (1) Meteorites produce fireballs sooner due to high friction; (2) Meteors tend to explode as well because of high stress; (3) Softer meteorites tend to cause dust trails; (4) Some falls produce light as they fall at high velocity. I am grateful to NASA Ames for this opportunity and Derek Sears, Katie Bryson, and Dan Ostrowski for discussions.

fragmentations↗