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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA)

The Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) working group connects members of the different aerosol communities through collaborative projects. This abstract, additional details, and a list of current projects can be found at https://science.larc.nasa.gov/mira-wg/. Join our email distribution list of 200+ members at https://espo.nasa.gov/lists/listinfo/mira.In this talk, we will describe some current MIRA projects that are relevant to AeroCom (e.g., the Table of Aerosol Optics, or TAO) and the benefits of presenting your multi-disciplinary work at MIRA sessions and meetings. What is MIRA? MIRA is forum that fosters international collaborations amongst the aerosol Modeling, In situ, and Remote sensing specialties. MIRA advances scientific knowledge about aerosol properties and improves our understanding of air quality, weather, and climate through the pursuit of specific goals. MIRA emphasizes areas of study where the aerosol specialties overlap, and MIRA projects seek additional data and insight from others (observational and modeled). Why? The purpose of MIRA is to contextualize both observations and model results through the encouragement of holistic projects and collaborations. Linking aerosol disciplines removes gaps in understanding that hinder our interpretation of observations and model results. Such linkages improve our understanding of air quality, weather, and climate. How does MIRA differ from other working groups? MIRA focuses on interdisciplinarity to improve measurements and their utility, so MIRA complements the activities of other groups. Other interdisciplinary aerosol groups have different primary foci. For instance, AeroCom mainly focuses on improving global aerosol models, AeroSat focuses on strengthening collaboration amongst satellite aerosol retrieval groups, and ICAP focuses on aerosol forecasting. We hope that many MIRA projects engage these groups.

Gregory Schuster↗
NASA NTRS2021

Significant Climate Benefits from Near-Term Climate Forcer Mitigation in Spite of Aerosol Reductions

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2011

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Rodell, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1-H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5 in the E2.1-G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low-end scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2013

Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

Bounoua, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-29139-DND

The Arctic has been warming at a rate outpacing globally-averaged warming by 2-3 times, a phenomenon known as "Arctic Amplification" (AA). AA is evident in observations of Arctic surface temperature over the last century as well as in model predictions. The accuracy of model predictions is crucial to determine our response to climate change, as Arctic changes have consequences for the atmospheric circulation, sea level rise, and the carbon cycle. Unfortunately, models show a wide range of possible futures and intermodel spread in projections of Arctic temperature is larger than for any other region: a 2°C global temperature increase- the limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement- would lead to an Arctic temperature change between 3-7°C according to Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 (CMIP5) models. This intermodel spread represents a key deficiency in the understanding of Arctic feedback processes and how changes in various physical parameters (e.g. sea ice cover, clouds, heat transport and surface fluxes) affect the temperature response. Using a process-oriented decomposition of the simulate Arctic surface energy budget, we attribute the largest contribution to the CMIP5 intermodel spead in projected Arctic warming to the Barents-Kara Sea region. Our results reveal that the increasing seasonal fluxing of ocean heat content is a significant part of the intermodel spread in AA and relates strongly to change in surface turbulent fluxes. Our results indicate that if we are to significantly reduce the intermodel spread in projected AA we must focus on understanding the behavior and physical processes that drive surface energy flows in the B-K sea region.

Patrick Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1992

Evidence for liquid-phase cirrus cloud formation from volcanic aerosols - Climatic implications

Supercooled droplets in cirrus uncinus cell heads between -40 and -50 C are identified from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment polarization lidar measurements. Although short-lived, complexes of these small liquid cells seem to have contributed importantly to the formation of the cirrus. Freezing-point depression effects in solution droplets, apparently resulting from relatively large cloud condensation nuclei of volcanic origin, can be used to explain this rare phenomenon. An unrecognized volcano-cirrus cloud climate feedback mechanism is implied by these findings.

Sassen, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS1974

Monitoring the Vernal Advancement and Retrogradation (Green Wave Effect) of Natural Vegetation

The author has identified the following significant results. The Great Plains Corridor rangeland project successfully utilized natural vegetation systems as phenological indicators of seasonal development and climatic effects upon regional growth conditions. An effective method was developed for quantitative measurement of vegetation conditions, including green biomass estimates, recorded in bands 5 and 6, corrected for sun angle, were used to compute a ratio parameter (TV16) which is shown to be highly correlated with green biomass and vegatation moisture content. Analyses results of ERTS-1 digital data and correlated ground data are summarized. Attention was given to analyzing weather influences and test site variables on vegetation condition measurements with ERTS-1 data.

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Management of atmospheric data

The establishment and maintenance of meteorological data archives to support various research projects are outlined. Consideration is given to overall data needs for meteorological and climatic research in the university community and to establish the climatology of the Southern Hemisphere from the surface to 10 kPa (100 millibars).

Jenne, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud cover sampling capability of various satellite combinations for ISCCP

One of the most important objectives of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) is the quantification of cloud cover and associated radiation parameters for climate research. The time-varying nature of cloud cover requires a measurement system that obtains cloud radiance at sufficient time intervals for determining accurate values of cloudiness for the appropriate averaging period. Current plans for the ISCCP call for such day to be acquired every 3 hours during both data and night to ensure that the diurnal cycle of cloud cover is adequately sampled. The satellite system proposed is an array of geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. The error in mean cloud cover estimates for observation systems which do not include geostationary satellites are quantified. Candidates for such a system include two NOAA Sun-synchronous satellites with daylight equatorial-crossing times of 0730 and 1430, and a USSR satellite in an 81 deg. inclination, 900-km altitude orbit.

Harrison, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations are supplemented with output form the DOE Reanalysis-2.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Skin Temperature Observations into Land Surface Models

Land surface (or "skin") temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. Here we assimilate LST retrievals from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) into the Noah and Catchment (CLSM) land surface models using an ensemble-based, off-line land data assimilation system. LST is described very differently in the two models. A priori scaling and dynamic bias estimation approaches are applied because satellite and model LST typically exhibit different mean values and variability. Performance is measured against 27 months of in situ measurements from the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project at 48 stations. LST estimates from Noah and CLSM without data assimilation ("open loop") are comparable to each other and superior to that of ISCCP retrievals. For LST, RMSE values are 4.9 K (CLSM), 5.6 K (Noah), and 7.6 K (ISCCP), and anomaly correlation coefficients (R) are 0.62 (CLSM), 0.61 (Noah), and 0.52 (ISCCP). Assimilation of ISCCP retrievals provides modest yet statistically significant improvements (over open loop) of up to 0.7 K in RMSE and 0.05 in anomaly R. The skill of surface turbulent flux estimates from the assimilation integrations is essentially identical to the corresponding open loop skill. Noah assimilation estimates of ground heat flux, however, can be significantly worse than open loop estimates. Provided the assimilation system is properly adapted to each land model, the benefits from the assimilation of LST retrievals are comparable for both models.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The International Summer School on Land Cover Change and Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin

The La Plata Basin (LPB) in southern South America has been subject to land cover and land use changes (LCLUCs) since colonial times and with an accelerated rate in the last decades and over extensive areas. The work of Ameghino even suggested that there were relations between those land use changes and the frequency of droughts and floods in the region. Despite this early knowledge, not much is known of the potential impacts of LCLUC on the hydroclimate of the La Plata basin. Besides, over the last century much of the La Plata Basin has had a reported increase in precipitation and heavy rains, and these changes along with an increase in population growth - have resulted in more adverse effects from flooding. To draw attention to these issues, during two weeks in November 2009 the International Summer School on Land Cover Change and Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin was organized at the grounds of the Itaip Hydropower Plant in Brazil. The school was the result of the combination of interests between the La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), and the International Hydroinformatics Center (IHC) in Itaip . LPB is an umbrella project endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Climate Prediction and Variability (CLIVAR), both of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). LPB has made a priority to train young scientists and promote interdisciplinary collaborations in areas related to Climate, Hydrology, Ecology and Agriculture. The IAI, with a similar agenda, was a natural partner to develop this Summer School, which in turn benefited from Itaipu s interest in relating with the scientific community of neighboring countries. The choice of location (Itaip Technological Park) was made so that participants could relate research usually done at academic institutions to applications and operations at one of the largest hydropower plants in the world. The school was attended by 45 advanced graduate students and young scientists with different backgrounds from seven countries, including less technically advanced ones in the region..

Berbery, Ernesto Hugo↗