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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Simulating county-level crop yields in the Conterminous United States using the Community Land Model: The effects of optimizing irrigation and fertilization

Representing agricultural systems explicitly in Earth system models is important for understanding the water-energy-food nexus under climate change. In this study, we applied Version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM) at a 0.125 degree resolution to provide the first county-scale validation of the model in simulating crop yields over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). We focused on corn and soybean that are both important grain crops and biofuel feedstocks (corn for bioethanol; soybean for biodiesel). We find that the default model substantially under- or over-estimate yields of corn and soybean as compared to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) census data, with corresponding county-level root-mean square error (RMSE) of 45.3 Bu/acre and 12.9 Bu/acre, or 42% and 38% of the US mean yields for these crops, respectively. Based on the numerical experiments, the lack of proper representation of agricultural management practices, such as irrigation and fertilization, was identified as a major cause for the model's poor performance. After implementing an irrigation management scheme calibrated against county-level US Geological Survey (USGS) census data, the county-level RMSE for corn yields reduced to 42.6 Bu/acre. We then incorporated an optimized fertilizer scheme in rate and timing, which is achieved by the constraining annual total fertilizer amount against the USDA data, considering the dynamics between fertilizer demand and supply and adopting a calibrated fertilizer scheduling map. The proposed approach is shown to be effective in increasing the fertilizer use efficiency for corn yields, with county-level RMSE reduced to 23.8 Bu/acre (or 22% of the US mean yield). In regions with similar annual fertilizer applied as in the default, the improvements in corn yield simulations are mainly attributed to application of longer fertilization periods and consideration of the dynamics between fertilizer demand and supply. For soybean which is capable of fixing nitrogen to meet nitrogen demand, the reduced positive bias to 6.9 Bu/acre (or 21% of the country mean) was mainly attributed to consideration of the dynamic interactions between fertilizer demand and supply. Although large bias remains in terms of the spatial pattern (i.e. high county-level RMSE), mainly due to limited performance over the Western US, our results show that optimizing irrigation and fertilization can lead to promising improvement in crop and soybean yield simulations in terms of the mean and variability especially over the Mid-west corn belt, and subsequent evapotranspiration (ET) estimates. Finally, this study demonstrates the CLM4.5 capability for predicting crop yields and their interactions with climate, and highlights the value of continued model improvements and development to understand biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of land use and land cover change using an Earth system modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1 , which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1 ). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulations of ENSO Phase-locking in CMIP5 and CMIP6

The characteristics of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking in observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are examined in this study. Two metrics based on the peaking month histogram for all El Niño and La Niña events are adopted to delineate the basic features of ENSO phase-locking in terms of the preferred calendar month and strength of this preference. It turns out that most models are poor at simulating the ENSO phase-locking, either showing little peak strengths or peaking at the wrong seasons. By deriving ENSO’s linear dynamics based on the conceptual recharge oscillator (RO) framework through the seasonal linear inverse model (sLIM) approach, various simulated phase-locking behaviors of CMIP models are systematically investigated in comparison with observations. In observations, phase-locking is mainly attributed to the seasonal modulation of ENSO’s SST growth rate. In contrast, in a significant portion of CMIP models, phase-locking is co-determined by the seasonal modulations of both SST growth and phase-transition rates. Further study of the joint effects of SST growth and phase-transition rates suggests that for simulating realistic winter peak ENSO phase-locking with the right dynamics, climate models need to have four key factors in the right combination: (1) correct phase of SST growth rate modulation peaking at the fall; (2) large enough amplitude for the annual cycle in growth rate; (3) amplitude of semi-annual cycle in growth rate needs to be small; and (4) amplitude of seasonal modulation in SST phase-transition rate needs to be small.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2020

Basin-Scale River Runoff Estimation from GRACE Gravity Satellites, Climate Models and In Situ Observations: a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

River runoff is estimated as a water budget residual using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage time series, ERA5 reanalysis data, and precipitation observations for January 2003 through December 2015 for the Obidos upstream drainage basin and for the entire Amazon basin. Estimated runoff based on the water budget agrees remarkably well with in situgauge observations at Obidos, especially at seasonal time scales, with nearly perfect phase agreementbut slightly larger seasonal amplitude. The discrepancy in the seasonal amplitude maybe attributed to underestimation of river gauge runoff during the wet season when water overflows the riverbanks. The ERA5 model appears to overestimate long-term mean evapotranspiration in the Amazon by ~2 cm/monthb ased on comparisons with precipitation and runoff observations. Using precipitation data based on satellites and gauge observations relative to gauge observations alone improved agreement between water budget runoff estimates and in situ runoff observations. Seasonal variations in ERA5 simulated runoff are about twice as large as those from in situobservations and show a large phase lag as well. Water budget based runoff for the entire Amazon (~ 7,200 km3averaged 29over the 13 yr period) is significantly larger than observed runoff (~5,700 km3) at notably larger than previous estimates for the entire Amazon. These differences may be partly related to submarine runoff from the Amazon basin that cannot be captured by surface gauges.

Jianli Chen↗
NASA NTRS2021

Widespread Megaripple Activity Across the North Polar Ergs of Mars

The most expansive dune fields on Mars surround the northern polar cap where various aeolian bedform classes are modified by wind and ice. The morphology and dynamics of these ripples, intermediate-scale bedforms (termed megaripples and transverse aeolian ridges (TARs)), and sand dunes reflect information regarding regional boundary conditions. We found that populations of polar megaripples and larger TARs are distinct in terms of their morphology, spatial distribution, and mobility. Whereas regionally-restricted TARs appeared degraded and static in long-baseline observations, polar megaripples were not only widespread but migrating at relatively high rates (0.13± 0.03 m/Earth year) and possibly more active than other regions on Mars. This high level of activity is somewhat surprising since there is limited seasonality for aeolian transport due to surficial frost and ice during the latter half of the martian year. A comprehensive analysis of an Olympia Cavi dune field estimated that the advancement of megaripples, ripples, and dunes avalanches accounted for ~1%, ~10%, and ~100%, respectively, of the total aeolian system’s sand fluxes. This included dark-toned ripples that migrated the average equivalent of 9.6±6 m/yr over just 22 days in northern summer - unprecedented rates for Mars. While bedform transport rates are some of the highest yet reported on Mars, the sand flux contribution between the different bedforms does not substantially vary from equatorial sites with lower rates. Seasonal off-cap sublimation winds and summer-time polar storms are attributed as the cause for the elevated activity, rather than cryospheric processes. Plain Language Summary “Megaripples” are distinct wind-driven bedforms that occur on the surface of Earth and Mars, often with sizes between that of smaller ripples and larger dunes. Recent work has found the thin martian atmosphere can mobilize some coarse-grained megaripples, overturning prior notions that these were static relic landforms from a past climate. We mapped megaripples and adjacent bedforms across the north polar sand seas, the most expansive collection of dune fields on Mars. Megaripples were found to be widespread across the region and migrating at relatively high rates relative to other sites on Mars that are at lower latitudes. This enhanced activity is likely related to the greater sand fluxes found for neighboring dunes which are driven by summer-time seasonal winds when polar ice is sublimating. In contrast, other megaripples appear to be stabilized, a likely result of inter-granular ice within low wind areas.

Matthew Chojnacki↗
NASA NTRS2026

Hematite Is a Mineralogical Marker of Ancient Climate Change on Mars

The ancient climate of Mars changed from warm to cold surface conditions. This climate transition is demonstrated by geomorphological evidence, but lacks suitable mineralogical indicators. We investigate the crystallographic properties of hematite (iron oxide) in Gale crater, measured by the Curiosity rover, and compare them to laboratory experiments. Hematite crystallite sizes are ~5 to ~65 nm in the oldest sedimentary rocks investigated by the rover (the Murray formation) and <10 nm in the younger overlying strata (Mirador and Carolyn Shoemaker formations). We attribute the larger crystallites in the Murray formation to post-depositional coarsening by groundwater in warm and wet conditions, which persisted for several million years. Hematite with small crystallites co-occurs with goethite (iron oxyhydroxide) in the overlying layers, consistent with colder and water- limited conditions.

Marek Szczerba↗
DOE OSTI2019

Beyond-the-Meter: Unaccounted Sources of Methane Emissions in the Natural Gas Distribution Sector

The United States Environmental Protection Agency maintains an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Methane (CH 4 ), a potent gas with a global warming potential 86–125× that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over a twenty-year period, is the main component of natural gas (NG). As NG becomes an increasingly larger percentage of the energy resources used in the United States, it is ever more important to evaluate the CH 4 emissions inventory. However, the inventory also does not account for all possible sources of CH 4 leaks, contributing to uncertainty in the national CH 4 inventory. Discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up inventories of CH 4 emissions imply that there are significant unaccounted-for sources of CH 4 leaks, especially over cities. Diffuse CH 4 plumes above cities that are not attributable to distribution pipelines or other NG infrastructure suggest many small beyond-the-meter leaks together contribute to large emissions. Here, we evaluate the distribution sector of the CH 4 emissions inventory and make suggestions to improve the inventory by analyzing end-user emissions. Preliminary research into beyond-the-meter emissions suggests that while individually small, the appliances and buildings that make up the residential sector could contribute significantly to national scale emissions. Furnaces are the most leak-prone of appliances, contributing to 0.14% of total CH 4 emissions from the NG sector in the United States. Combining measurements from whole house emissions and steady-state operation of appliances, we estimate that residential homes and appliances could release 9.1 Gg CH 4 yearly in the United States, totaling over 2% of the CH 4 released from the NG sector. Here, while factors such as appliance age and usage, climate, and residential setting could influence the emissions profile of individual appliances, these preliminary estimates justify further exploration of beyond-the-meter emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Trends and Variability in Sea Ice and Icebergs off the Canadian East Coast

Seasonal time series of sea-ice area or extent in several regions along the east coast of Canada were compiled from several sources for the period 1901 to 2013 and compared with an index of ice extent off southwest Greenland, iceberg season length south of 48°N, air temperature, and other climate indices. Trends in winter ice area and iceberg season length are significant over the past 100 years and 30 years. Variability of winter ice area and iceberg season length is associated with a combination of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices superimposed on a negative trend. Thus, large declines in ice area and iceberg season length in the 1920s and 1990s can be attributed to a decreasing NAO index and a shift to the positive phase of the AMO at the end of these decades. Ice extent in southern areas such as the Scotian Shelf is more strongly correlated with the Western Atlantic index than with the NAO. Ice area trends (in percent per decade) are larger in magnitude and account for twice as much of the variance in ice area for summer than for winter, with summer trends significant over 30-, 60- and 100-year periods. Sea-ice variability is generally consistent with air temperature variability in the various regions; in the 1930s, during the early twentieth-century warming period, ice anomalies were higher and temperature anomalies were lower along the coast of eastern Canada than along the coast of southwestern Greenland.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dual stable isotopes of CH 4 from Yellowstone hot-springs suggest hydrothermal processes involving magmatic CO 2

Volcanism and post-magmatism contribute both significant annual CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere (on par with other natural sources such as forest fire and wild animal emissions) and have been implicated in past climate-change events. The Yellowstone hot spot is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth and is known to emit methane in addition to other greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) but the ultimate source of this methane flux has not been elucidated. Here we use dual stable isotope analysis (δ 2 H and δ 13 C) of CH 4 (g) sampled from ten high-temperature geothermal pools in Yellowstone National Park to show that the predominant flux of CH4(g) is abiotic. The average δ 13 C and δ 2 H values of CH 4 (g) emitted from hot springs (-26.7 (±2.4) and -236.9 (±12.0) ‰, respectively) are not consistent with biotic (microbial or thermogenic) methane sources, but are within previously reported ranges for abiotic methane production. Correlation between δ 13 C CH4 and δ 13 C-dissolved inorganic C (DIC) also suggests that CO 2 is a parent C source for the observed CH 4 (g). Moreover, CH 4 -CO 2 isotopic geothermometry was used to estimate CH 4 (g) formation temperatures ranging from ~ 250 - 350°C, which is just below the temperature estimated for the hydrothermal reservoir and consistent with the hypothesis that subsurface, rock-water interactions are responsible for large methane fluxes from this volcanic system. An understanding of conditions leading to the abiotic production of methane and associated isotopic signatures are central to understanding the evolutionary history of deep carbon sources on Earth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Arctic Black Carbon Loading and Profile Using the Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) Field Campaign Report

One of the major issues confronting aerosol climate simulations of the Arctic and Antarctic cryospheres is the lack of detailed data on the vertical and spatial distribution of aerosols with which to test these models. This is due, in part, to the inherent difficulty of conducting such measurements in extreme environments. However given the pronounced sensitivity of the polar regions to radiative balance perturbations, it is incumbent upon our community to better understand and quantify these perturbations, and their unique feedbacks, so that robust model predictions of this region can be realized. One class of under-measured radiative forcing agents in the polar region is the absorbing aerosol—black carbon and brown carbon. Black carbon (BC; also referred to as light-absorbing carbon [LAC], refractory black carbon [rBC], and soot) is second only to CO2 as a positive forcing agent. Roughly 60% of BC emissions can be attributed to anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel combustion and open-pit cooking), with the remaining fraction being due to biomass burning. Brown carbon (BrC), a major component of biomass burning, collectively refers to non-BC carbonaceous aerosols that typically possess minimal light absorption at visible wavelengths but exhibit pronounced light absorption in the near-ultraviolet (UV) spectrum. Both species can be sourced locally or be remotely transported to the Arctic region and are expected to perturb the radiative balance. The work conducted in this field campaign addresses one of the more glaring deficiencies currently limiting improved quantification of the impact of BC radiative forcing in the cryosphere: the paucity of data on the vertical and spatial distributions of BC. By expanding the Gulfstream aircraft (G-1) payload for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility-sponsored ACME-V campaign to include the Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2)) and leveraging the ACME-V campaign’s deployment within the Arctic Circle during the summer of 2015 (Deadhorse, Alaska [70° 12' 20" N, 148° 30' 42" W]), the truly unique opportunity presented itself to acquire profile data on BC loading at little additional cost. Since the SP2 is a particle-resolved measurement, the resulting data set provides refractory black carbon (rBC) mass loadings, size and mass distributions, and rBC-containing particle mixing state, all of which are expected to readily find value in the modeling community. As part of the ACME-V (http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/aaf2014armacmev) campaign, CO, CO2, and CH4 were also measured, providing the unique opportunity for carbon closure. We will also work closely with modelers who require such data and expect this collaboration will lead directly to a better understanding of the climate impacts of BC in the Arctic. The primary measurement objective was to acquire airborne data on the vertical and spatial distributions of refractory black carbon (rBC) loading, size and mass distribution, and particle mixing state. The primary scientific objective was to provide a targeted data set of rBC particle distributions to better understand and constrain the impact of black carbon radiative forcing in the cryosphere. The SP2-based data set during this campaign is available in the DOE-ARM archive (http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/aaf2015abclp).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century

In this paper, we demonstrate a global scale southward shift of the tropical rain belt during the latter half of the 20th century in observations and global climate models (GCMs). In rain gauge data, the southward shift maximizes in the 1980s and is associated with signals in Africa, Asia, and South America. A southward shift exists at a similar time in nearly all CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical simulations, and occurs on both land and ocean, although in most models the shifts are significantly less than in observations. Utilizing a theoretical framework based on atmospheric energetics, we perform an attribution of the zonal mean southward shift of precipitation across a large suite of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs. Our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosol cooling of the Northern Hemisphere is the primary cause of the consistent southward shift across GCMs, although other processes affecting the atmospheric energy budget also contribute to the model-to-model spread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Growing season boundary layer climate and surface exchanges in a subarctic lichen woodland

Between June and August 1990, observations were made at two surface micrometeorological towers near Schefferville Quebec (54 deg 52 min N, 66 deg 40.5 min W), one in a fen and one in the subarctic lichen woodland, and at four surface climatological stations. Data from these surface stations were supplemented by regular radiosonde launches. Supporting measurements of radiative components and soil temperatures allowed heat and moisture balances to be obtained at two sites. The overall surface meteorological experiment design and results of micrometeorological observations made on a 30-m tower in the lichen woodland are presented here. Seasonal variation in the heat and water vapor transport characteristics illustrate the marked effect of the late summer climatological shift in air mass type. During the first half of the summer, average valley sidewalls only 100 m high are sufficient to channel winds along the valley in the entire convective boundary layer. Channeling effects at the surface, known for some time at the long-term climate station in Schefferville, are observed both at ridge top and in the valley, possibly the response of the flow to the NW-SE orientation of valleys in the region. Diurnal surface temperature amplitude at ridge top (approximately equal to 10 C) was found to be half that observed in the valley. Relatively large differences in precipitation among these stations and the climatological station at Schefferville airport were observed and attributed to the local topography. Eddy correlation observations of the heat, moisture and momentum transports were obtained from a 30-m tower above a sparse (approximately equal to 616 stems/ha) black spruce lichen woodland. Properties of the turbulent surface boundary layer agree well with previous wind tunnel studies over idealized rough surfaces. Daytime Bowen ratios of 2.5-3 are larger than those reported in previous studies. Surface layer flux data quality was assessed by looking at the surface layer heat balance. Diurnal and seasonal scale heat budget imbalances were found. We suggest that unmeasured surface heat storage may be responsible for some of the observed imbalance. The presence of the unexplained residual in this and other studies of energy balance over forests casts a note of caution on the interpretation of energy balance components obtained using heat residual methods.

Fitzjarrald, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Crosscutting Airborne Remote Sensing Technologies for Oil and Gas and Earth Science Applications

Airborne imaging spectroscopy has evolved dramatically since the 1980s as a robust remote sensing technique used to generate 2-dimensional maps of surface properties over large spatial areas. Traditional applications for passive airborne imaging spectroscopy include interrogation of surface composition, such as mapping of vegetation diversity and surface geological composition. Two recent applications are particularly relevant to the needs of both the oil and gas as well as government sectors: quantification of surficial hydrocarbon thickness in aquatic environments and mapping atmospheric greenhouse gas components. These techniques provide valuable capabilities for petroleum seepage in addition to detection and quantification of fugitive emissions. New empirical data that provides insight into the source strength of anthropogenic methane will be reviewed, with particular emphasis on the evolving constraints enabled by new methane remote sensing techniques. Contemporary studies attribute high-strength point sources as significantly contributing to the national methane inventory and underscore the need for high performance remote sensing technologies that provide quantitative leak detection. Imaging sensors that map spatial distributions of methane anomalies provide effective techniques to detect, localize, and quantify fugitive leaks. Airborne remote sensing instruments provide the unique combination of high spatial resolution (<1 m) and large coverage required to directly attribute methane emissions to individual emission sources. This capability cannot currently be achieved using spaceborne sensors. In this study, results from recent NASA remote sensing field experiments focused on point-source leak detection, will be highlighted. This includes existing quantitative capabilities for oil and methane using state-of-the-art airborne remote sensing instruments. While these capabilities are of interest to NASA for assessment of environmental impact and global climate change, industry similarly seeks to detect and localize leaks of both oil and methane across operating fields. In some cases, higher sensitivities desired for upstream and downstream applications can only be provided by new airborne remote sensing instruments tailored specifically for a given application. There exists a unique opportunity for alignment of efforts between commercial and government sectors to advance the next generation of instruments to provide more sensitive leak detection capabilities, including those for quantitative source strength determination.

hyperspectral↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-29139-DND

The Arctic has been warming at a rate outpacing globally-averaged warming by 2-3 times, a phenomenon known as "Arctic Amplification" (AA). AA is evident in observations of Arctic surface temperature over the last century as well as in model predictions. The accuracy of model predictions is crucial to determine our response to climate change, as Arctic changes have consequences for the atmospheric circulation, sea level rise, and the carbon cycle. Unfortunately, models show a wide range of possible futures and intermodel spread in projections of Arctic temperature is larger than for any other region: a 2°C global temperature increase- the limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement- would lead to an Arctic temperature change between 3-7°C according to Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 (CMIP5) models. This intermodel spread represents a key deficiency in the understanding of Arctic feedback processes and how changes in various physical parameters (e.g. sea ice cover, clouds, heat transport and surface fluxes) affect the temperature response. Using a process-oriented decomposition of the simulate Arctic surface energy budget, we attribute the largest contribution to the CMIP5 intermodel spead in projected Arctic warming to the Barents-Kara Sea region. Our results reveal that the increasing seasonal fluxing of ocean heat content is a significant part of the intermodel spread in AA and relates strongly to change in surface turbulent fluxes. Our results indicate that if we are to significantly reduce the intermodel spread in projected AA we must focus on understanding the behavior and physical processes that drive surface energy flows in the B-K sea region.

Patrick Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nonlinear Plant Responses to Carbon Dioxide and Climate Diminish Water Availability

Water availability for people and its future with global warming is intimately tied to uncertain interactions between the biogeophysical and biogeochemical land responses to enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide. In particular, research has centered on the question of whether (and by how much) plants will mediate projections of enhanced aridity and drought expected with atmospheric warming. Using an idealized set of Earth System Model (ESM) experiments that decouple the radiative and biogeochemical responses to increased carbon dioxide, we show that ecosystem water use nonlinearly increases across most of the globe under forcing, in spite of increased water use efficiencies attributable to physiological responses to plants. Enhanced ecosystem water consumption is associated with decreased runoff efficiency and soil moisture declines and emerges from nonlinear interactions between the radiative and biogeochemical response of the land surface to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which preferences the partitioning of precipitation to plants, irrespective of precipitation changes. Increased partitioning to runoff is associated with precipitation changes that outpace canopy interception changes. Crucially, our results suggest that within the models, warming and carbon dioxide nonlinearly interact to make plants consume more water rather than save it, with implications for responsible interpretation of drought risks under forcing.

water availability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global wave energy resource classification system for regional energy planning and project development

Efforts to streamline and codify wave energy resource characterization and assessment for regional energy planning and wave energy converter (WEC) project development have motivated the recent development of resource classification systems. Given the unique interplay between WEC absorption and resource attributes, viz, available wave power frequency, directionality, and seasonality, various consensus resource classification metrics have been introduced. However, the main international standards body for the wave energy industry has not reached consensus on a wave energy resource classification system designed with clear goals to facilitate resource assessment, regional energy planning, project site selection, project feasibility studies, and selection of WEC concepts or archetypes that are most suitable for a given wave energy climate. In this work, a primary consideration of wave energy generation is the available energy that can be captured by WECs with different resonant frequency and directional bandwidths. Therefore, the proposed classification system considers combinations of three different wave power classifications: the total wave power, the frequency-constrained wave power, and the frequency-directionally constrained wave power. The dominant wave period bands containing the most wave power are sub-classification parameters that provide useful information for designing frequency and directionally constrained WECs. The bulk of the global wave energy resource is divided into just 22 resource classes representing distinct wave energy climates that could serve as a common language and reference framework for wave energy resource assessment if codified within international standards.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reply to ‘Increases in temperature do not translate to increased flooding’

Replying to Wasko et al. Nature Communications https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13613-4 (2019). We are thankful for the interest of Wasko et al.1 in our work2. The correspondence from Wasko et al. argued that our finding on the positive scaling rate between storm runoff extremes and temperature can be mainly attributed to snowmelt processes, and claimed that storm runoff extremes should have a negative scaling rate globally. However, we do not agree with their arguments for several reasons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗