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At least 793 records · Page 44

Definition of experiments to investigate fire suppressants in microgravity

Defined and justified here are the conceptual design and operation of a critical set of experiments expected to yield information on suppressants and on suppressant delivery systems under realistic spacecraft-fire conditions (smoldering). Specific experiment parameters are provided on the solid fuel (carbon), oxidants (habitable spacecraft atmospheres), fuel/oxidant supply, mixing mode, and rate (quiescent and finite; ventilated and replenishable), ignition mode, event, and reignition tendency, fire-zone size, fire conditions, lifetime, and consequences (toxicity), suppressants (CO2, H2O, N2) and suppressant delivery systems, and diagnostics. Candidate suppressants were identified after an analysis of how reduced gravity alters combustion, and how these alterations may influence the modes, mechanisms, and capacities of terrestrial agents to suppress unwanted combustion, or fire. Preferred spacecraft suppression concepts included the local, near-quiescent application of a gas, vapor, or mist that has thermophysical fire-suppression activity and is chemically inert under terrestrial (normal gravity) combustion conditions. The scale, number, and duration (about 1 hour) of the proposed low-gravity experiments were estimated using data not only on the limitations imposed by spacecraft-carrier (Shuttle or Space Station Freedom) accommodations, but also data on the details and experience of standardized smolder-suppression experiments at normal gravity. Deliberately incorporated into the conceptual design was sufficient interchangeability for the prototype experimental package to fly either on Shuttle now or Freedom later. This flexibility is provided by the design concept of up to 25 modular fuel canisters within a containment vessel, which permits both integration into existing low-gravity in-space combustion experiments and simultaneous testing of separate experiments to conserve utilities and time.

Reuther, James J.↗

Evaluation of sodium-nickel chloride cells for space applications

The status of the European Space Agency (ESA) program on sodium nickel chloride batteries is outlined. Additionally, the results of initial tests of two prototype space cells are reported. After 2800 cycles typical of a low-earth orbit (LEO) application without failure, the recharge ratio remained at unity, the round trip energy efficiency remained high (87 percent), and the increase in internal cell resistance was modest. Initial tear-down analysis data show no degradation whatsoever of the beta-alumina electrolyte tubes. The low-rate capacity did, however drop by some 40 percent, which needs further investigation, but overall results are encouraging for future use of this couple in geosynchronous (GEO) and LEO spacecraft.

Hendel, B.↗

Melt Stabilization of PbSnTe in a Magnetic Field

Both the experimental observation and numerical simulation indicate that the Bridgman growth of PbSnTe under the microgravity environment in space is still greatly influenced by buoyancy-induced convection. The application of a magnetic field during the semiconductor growth can dampen the convective flow in the metal-like melt. However, for Bridgman growth of PbSnTe on earth (with either vertical or horizontal configuration), both experimental observation and numerical modeling suggest that even with a strong magnetic furnace (5-Tesla constant axial magnetic field), the convective flow in the melt still cannot be sufficiently suppressed to reach the diffusion-controlled level. In order to completely dampen the buoyancy-induced convection on earth, estimates based on scaling analysis indicate that for common experimental conditions, an extremely high magnetic field is required, far beyond the capacity of the experimental apparatus currently available. Therefore, it is proposed that only the combination of microgravity environment and magnetic damping will produce the desired diffusion-controlled growth state for this particular material. The primary objectives of this study are to provide a quantitative understanding of the complex transport phenomena during solidification of non-dilute binarys, to furnish a numerical tool for furnace design and growth condition optimization, to provide estimates of the required magnetic field strength for low gravity growth, and to assess the role of magnetic damping for space and earth control of the double-diffusive convection. As an integral part of a NASA research program, our numerical simulation supports both the flight and ground-based experiments in an effort to bring together a complete picture of the complex physical phenomena involved in the crystal growth process. For Bridgman growth of PbSnTe under microgravity (with both vertical and horizontal configurations), the simulations suggest that a moderate axial magnetic field of only a few kilo-Gauss in strength could effectively eliminate buoyancy-induced convection in the melt and control solute segregation. Therefore, this work confirms the idea that the combination of microgravity environment and the magnetic damping will indeed be sufficient to produce the desired diffusion-controlled growth state for PbSnTe.

Fripp, Archibald L.↗

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Mlynczak, Pamela E.↗

Air Pollutant Emissions and Regulatory Implications of Co-Processing Raw Bio-Oil in U.S. Petroleum Refineries

Pyrolysis oil, often referred as bio-oil or biocrude, has attracted considerable attention because it has higher energy density and carbon content compared to the raw biomass. Using pyrolysis oil derived from low cost and underutilized biomass to produce renewable hydrocarbon fuels provides a viable link between the agriculture/forestry and (petro-) chemical industry. Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) in petroleum refinery is appealing due to the relatively low capital requirement to retrofit refinery and the compatibility of fuel products with existing infrastructure. In order to implement co-processing, a petroleum refinery would need to consider several process modifications and therefore could be subject to varying levels of air permitting requirements based on bio-oil co-processing ratio, co-processing capacity in existing units, the amount of regulated pollutants expected to be emitted, among other factors. This analysis considers co-processing 5% (by weight) of raw bio-oil with VGO in the fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) unit(s) in a petroleum refinery. We estimate the potential increase in emissions of regulated air pollutants resulting from the modifications required to implement bio-oil co-processing and evaluate the regulatory and permitting implications for three FCC size categories in the U.S. refineries, which could co-processes raw bio-oil to produce partially renewable transportation fuels. We also assess technically feasible emission control options petroleum refineries could adopt to avoid being subject to major source permitting requirements if the estimated increase in regulated air pollutant emission exceeds the applicable threshold for major modifications. Insights from our analysis can help overcome challenges and risks associated with timely obtaining air permits required to implement bio-oil co-processing in existing refineries. Our analysis also provides needed information for decision makers (e.g., local air quality agencies) to understand the potential air quality implications for retrofitting refineries to co-process bio-oil, particularly in areas with high concentration of petroleum refineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Investigation of powertrain system decarbonization using electrically assisted turbocharging and hybridization in off-road vehicles

In recent years, the causes, effects, and existential threat of a global anthropogenic climate shift have drawn significant attention and stimulated mitigation efforts from all genres of scientific, political, and industrial bodies. The greenhouse effect and the detrimental environmental impact of excess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, like carbon dioxide, is well studied and targeted as the primary culprit for aversive action. However, some fields exist where reducing GHG emissions is met by considerable challenges. One such field is the production and operations of off-road vehicles. Applications of these vehicles are highly diverse and are often characterized by rugged, especially transient, and power intensive duty cycles that make one-fits-all vehicle configuration solutions impractical. This research surveys existing literature to identify the modern technologies packages and challenges that face development and configuration of powertrain systems which currently navigate the regulated emissions and unique duty cycle requirements of this market space. A novel powertrain concept is proposed and evaluated with respect to the pinnacle objectives of load performance improvement, criteria pollutant reduction, and reducing the life cycle GHG intensity of its operation. A sure-fire path to vehicular GHG reduction is through improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs), an entrenched component of the off-road vehicle sector. Unfortunately, this is more easily said than done. An approach that has proven successful in this endeavor is engine downsizing and turbocharging, where a larger engine is replaced with a smaller one with added air system boosting via turbocharger to reduce frictional and pumping losses while also enabling access to additional fuel energy. However, practical realization of these potential benefits is often impeded by the transient response capability of the smaller engine across the operating space. For this reason, downsized ICE powertrains have turned to electrified forced induction systems (EFISs) for a decoupling of exhaust energy and engine speed from boost capability. Platformed on 48V hybrid technology, these systems introduce the need for more sophisticated controls around the engine gas-exchange process for the management of boost performance and exhaust gas emissions. On this account, simulation studies utilizing a GT-POWER model of a turbocharged 4.5 L engine outfit with an EFIS using an electrically driven compressor (eBooster®) are conducted to provide insight into the performance of this air handling architecture on an off-road engine. The results show that improvement in transient torque response time in sync with reduction in engine-out soot and NOx emissions are possible with an engine recalibration that leverages the transient air-fuel ratio authority of the eBooster®. Benefits are further demonstrated when duty cycle simulations of the 48V mild-hybrid engine concept are exercised, showing an acute decrease in cumulative fuel usage and soot production. Powertrain hybridization is another technological pathway achieving pronounced GHG reduction successes in modern on-road vehicle applications through integration of Li-ion battery technology. In the off-road vehicle segment, a review of available literature concludes that hybridized architectures are present but generally lack the depth of technologies that have both high specific energy and power capabilities, and thus are limited in their inclusion of Li-ion batteries for ICE assistance and enhanced energy storage capability. Therefore, building on the mild-hybrid engine results, the downsized and eBoosted engine concept was integrated into a larger high-voltage battery-hybrid series-electric powertrain system. Hybrid powertrain parameter sensitivity studies were carried out in a numerical charge-sustaining framework, providing novel insights into power flows between the battery and the engine and how their respective capabilities and operation contribute to GHG and criteria pollutant emissions of diverse duty cycles. Application of supervisory power management introduced robustness into the power sourcing and battery SOC control process and showed that optimum specification of battery properties can yield synergies between GHG emissions and battery energy capacity. Furthermore, examination of recent literature on Li-ion batteries has shown that pack manufacturing is a highly energy intensive process, thereby producing considerable quantities of GHGs that scale with energy storage capacity. Also scaling with a battery’s energy storage capacity is its investment cost. In consideration of these factors, an inclusive technoeconomic and GHG life cycle analysis is conducted. This analysis systematically compares the carbon footprint and total cost of ownership associated with the proposed hybrid powertrain concept to reference and alternative powertrain configurations, facilitating a thorough evaluation of the decarbonization effectiveness and economic viability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

JSC-Rocknest: A Large-Scale Mojave Mars Simulant (MMS) Based Soil Simulant for In-Situ Resource Utilization Water-Extraction Studies

The Johnson Space Center-Rocknest (JSC-RN) simulant was developed in response to a need by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) project for a simulant to be used in component and system testing for water extraction from Mars regolith. JSC-RN was designed to be chemically and mineralogically similar to material from the aeolian sand shadow named Rocknest in Gale Crater, particularly the 1-3 wt.% low temperature (<450 ºC) water release as measured by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument on the Curiosity rover. Sodium perchlorate, goethite, pyrite, ferric sulfate, regular and high capacity granular ferric oxide, and forsterite were added to a Mojave Mars Simulant (MMS) base in order to match the mineralogy, evolved gases, and elemental chemistry of Rocknest. Mineral and rock components were sent to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in Denver for mixing. Approximately 800 kg of JSC-RN was sent back to NASA in 5 gallon buckets, which were subsampled and characterized. All samples of the USGS-produced simulants had similar evolved gas profiles as a small prototype batch of JSC-RN made in JSC laboratories, with the exception of HCl, and were similar in terms of mineralogy and total chemistry. Also, all JSC-RN subsamples were homogenous and had similar mineralogy, total chemistry, and low-temperature evolved gas profiles as the Rocknest aeolian sand shadow examined with Curiosity’s instrument suite on Mars. In particular, the low temperature water releases were similar and the amount of water evolved from JSC-RN at <450 ºC was similar to the water content of Rocknest based on SAM water peak integrations. Overall, JSC-RN is ideally suited for ISRU studies of water extraction of global martian soil due to its excellent agreement with measured properties of martian soils and its proven feasibility for large-scale production.

Simulant↗

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Lanthanum induced lattice strain improves hydrogen sulfide capacities of copper oxide adsorbents

This work probes the effects of La on reactions involving CuO sorbents and H 2 S in gaseous streams. La-CuO sorbents with nominal La/Cu atomic ratios of 1:2 achieved higher capacities (27 and 36 g H 2 S per 100 g sorbent) compared to CuO sorbents (25 g H 2 S per 100 g sorbent). Here, comparison of the La-CuO sorbents using energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy and La L 3 -edge XAS suggested that increased capacity resulted from more uniform dispersion of La within the CuO phase (3.3 wt.% vs. 1.0 wt.% La). X-Ray absorption near edge structure analysis suggested more electron-rich Cu species in La-CuO samples, while extended X-ray absorption fine structure modeling showed an increase in single-scattering path lengths for neighboring and near-neighbor atoms. These changes suggest that La induces strain in the Cu-O lattice, thereby increasing H 2 S capacity by reducing energy barriers associated with surface reactions between oxygen atoms and adsorbed H 2 S molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Linear and Nonlinear Analyses of a Wind-Tunnel Balance

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has been designing strain-gauge balances for utilization in wind tunnels since its inception. The utilization of balances span a wide variety of aerodynamic tests. A force balance is an inherently critically stressed component due to the requirements of measurement sensitivity. Force balance stress analysis and acceptance criteria are under review due to LaRC wind tunnel operational safety requirements. This paper presents some of the analyses done at NASA LaRC. Research and analyses were performed in order to investigate the structural integrity of the balances and better understand their performance. The analyses presented in this paper are helpful in understanding the overall behavior of an existing balance and can also be used in design of new balances to enhance their performance. As a first step, maximum load combination is used for linear structural analysis. When nonlinear effects are encountered, the analysis is extended to include the nonlinearities. Balance 1621 is typical for LaRC designed balances and was chosen for this study due to its traditional high load capacity, Figure 1. Maximum loading occurs when all 6 components are applied simultaneously with their maximum value allowed (limit load). This circumstance normally will not occur in the wind tunnel. However, if it occurs, is the balance capable of handling the loads with an acceptable factor of safety? Preliminary analysis using Pro/Mechanica indicated that this balance might experience nonlinearity. It was decided to analyze this balance by using NASTRAN so that a nonlinear analysis could be conducted. Balance 1621 was modeled and meshed in PATRAN for analysis in NASTRAN. The model from PATRAN/NASTRAN is compared to the one from Pro/Mechanica. For a complete analysis, it is necessary to consider all the load cases as well as use a dense mesh near all the edges. Because of computer limitations, it is not feasible to analyze model with the dense mesh near all edges. In the present study, the dense mesh is limited to the surface on the end of the axial sections.

Karkehabadi, R.↗

Development of a High-Rate Lithium-Air Battery Using a Gaseous CO 2 Reactant

Li-air batteries are considered a potential alternative to Li-ion batteries for transportation applications due to their high theoretical specific energy. Most works in this area focus on use of O 2 as the reactant. However, newer concepts for using gaseous reactants (such as CO 2 , which has a theoretical specific energy density of 1,876 Wh/kg) provide opportunities for further exploration. The main objective of this project was the development of a novel strategy that enables operation of Li-CO 2 batteries at high-capacity and high-rate, with a long-cycle-life. The team was able to: (1) Synthesize two novel transition metal chalcogenide (TMC) catalysts that work in synergy with ionic liquid-based electrolytes to enhance the efficiency of reactions during discharge and charge processes; (2) Fabricate high-porosity cathode electrodes with 3D printing to increase electrode surface area and gas permeability; (3) Develop a multiscale modeling framework that integrates Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties of Li-CO 2 batteries; (4) Assemble a stackable Li-CO 2 pouch-cell able to deliver a capacity of >200 mAh. These achievements were realized through an integrated approach based on materials synthesis, testing, characterization, analysis, and computation. This project produced a thorough understanding of key chemical, electronic, and kinetic parameters that govern the operation of Li- CO 2 batteries in realistic conditions. The methodologies employed, and the insight generated, will be valuable beyond advancing the field of Li-CO 2 batteries

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

US Geothermal Electricity and Heat Market Analysis and Report

The power production data from FY19 is provided for U.S. geothermal power plants. The spreadsheet includes the plant name and type, nameplate capacity, summer capacity, winter capacity, and net generation for each power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗

Chapter 2: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal power market has shown significant growth since the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 gigawatts electric (GWe) by the end of 2021 (GEA, 2016). The global geothermal power plant turbine market is dominated by a small number of manufacturers. Between 2005 and 2015, 82% of the geothermal steam turbines were manufactured in Japan, and 74% of the geothermal binary cycle turboexpanders were manufactured in Israel. During this period, the United States played an important role in the global trade flow of fully assembled turbine units and turbine parts, with a high volume of imports and exports. Another significant growth area was in Italian turbine/turboexpander manufacturers, who have increased their market share in the last couple of years. One other important change in the manufacturing market was in Turkey, where the bonus on feed-in-tariff (FIT) for domestic hardware components boosted the national manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2020. When planning geothermal power projects, developers customize their power plant size to fit the available geothermal resource capacity. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize the efficiency and utilization of resource and revenue production. The rest of the power plant components such as heat exchangers (HX), water-cooled cooling towers (WCCT), or air-cooled condensers (ACC) are then chosen to complement the turbine size and design. These one-off manufacturing custom design turbines have relatively higher manufacturing set-up costs, longer lead times, and higher capital costs than the standard design turbines manufactured in larger volumes. However, turbines produced in standard increments and in larger manufacturing volumes could result in lower costs per turbine, but potentially lower efficiency. Based on pipeline projects and resource assessments, there is significant potential value in creating standard turbine sizes that could offer an economic advantage, as is done for modular microturbines.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗