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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust In-Situ Strain Measurements to Monitor CO 2 Storage

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate robust instrumentation to monitor the in-situ strain tensor in order to improve the reliability and security of CO 2 storage in geologic formations. We met the original goals of the project and the major overarching accomplishment is the advancement of strain tensor monitoring from an intriguing concept to a commercially available technology with a solid foundation of novel instruments supported by theoretical analyses and validation experiments. The main accomplishments of the project are summarized below. We designed, built and evaluated nine new optical fiber strainmeters and tiltmeters using Michelson interferometers to measure deformation with ultra-high resolution at both shallow and deep point locations in the subsurface. These are the robust strainmeters that motivated the title of the project. We designed, built and evaluated a novel method of measuring distributed strain in optical fibers with nanostrain resolution, and cm-scale location, and sampling into the seismic band. The new method is called Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interfereometry (CMPI). CMPI technology has advantages over existing commercial DAS and DSS methods. We developed and demonstrated capabilities to deploy instruments in the field and used them to measure strain caused by ambient signals like barometric pressure and tides, as well as induced signals like surface loading and pore pressure changes from pumping tests. We deployed a working strainmeter at 1,700 ft depth, slightly above an active reservoir. This is to our knowledge the greatest depth a strainmeter has been deployed and the techniques we used can readily be extended to greater depths. Optical fiber borehole tensor strainmeter techology was advanced from a TRL 4 at the start, to a TRL of 7 at the conclusion of the project. The project included advances in simulations and theoretical analyses. We developed and demonstrated a computational workflow that uses machine learning to reduce the computational requirements and make it practical to use Bayesian inversion to solve large numerical poroelastic analyses needed to interpret strain tensor field data. We evaluated the strain tensor fields and time series that would be caused by leaks of CO 2 or other fluids from reservoirs. These simulations demonstrated that signals from leaks could be measured with instruments developed for the project, opening a potentially new method for ensuring storage security. We showed that strains in caprock can be used to estimate pressure in a reservoir. This avoids the need to drill monitoring wells into the reservoir, and it expands the capabilities of monitoring in the caprock. The project includes a derivation and application of a novel analytical solution to the strains in the vicinity of a pressurized poroelastic inclusion. This solution explains field data measured during injeciton tests at the North Avant Field, and it will simplify future interpretation of strain tensor data. The project included a broad range of experiments, and of the most significant is the characterization of the strain tensor at an array three strainmeters during six injection tests at the North Avant Field, Oklahoma. This demonstrated repeatability of the strain signal measured by the new instruments developed for the project, and it showed similarities between the strain signal at shallow depths and pressure in the underlying reservoir. We also demonstrated that useful strain data can be measured at reservoir depths. This confirms that strain tensor data can be measured throughout the caprock over a reservoir. The project demonstrated the feasibility of using the strain tensor and distributed strain measured in caprock during a variety of different well tests where the pumping rate was constant, sinusoidal and positive, or a periodic square wave with zero net rate. This further strengthens the validity of using strain data to characterize reservoirs and aquifers. We also demonstrated that strain caused be fluctuations of air pressure and water pressure in the vadose zone can be measured and interpreted, suggesting that high resolution distributed strain measurements hold promise for monitoring the vadose zone. The project partially supported nine graduate students in the Environmental Engineering, Hydrogeology, Electrical Engineering programs at Clemson University. The research was described in nine journal papers, 23 talks and conference abstracts. Additional journal papers are in preparation. A new company called Tensora was started to provide strainmeter technology for commercial applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model – Application to realistic N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Photometric galaxy surveys constitute a powerful cosmological probe but rely on the accurate characterization of their redshift distributions using only broad-band imaging, and can be very sensitive to incomplete or biased priors used for redshift calibration. A hierarchical Bayesian model has recently been developed to estimate those from the robust combination of prior information, photometry of single galaxies, and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population. In this work, we extend the method so that it can be applied to real data, developing some necessary new extensions to it, especially in the treatment of galaxy clustering information, and we test it on realistic simulations. After marginalizing over the mapping between the clustering estimator and the actual density distribution of the sample galaxies, and using prior information from a small patch of the survey, we find the incorporation of clustering information with photo-z’s tightens the redshift posteriors and overcomes biases in the prior that mimic those happening in spectroscopic samples. The method presented here uses all the information at hand to reduce prior biases and incompleteness. Even in cases where we artificially bias the spectroscopic sample to induce a shift in mean redshift of $\Delta \bar{z} \approx 0.05,$ the final biases in the posterior are $\Delta \bar{z} \lesssim 0.003.$ This robustness to flaws in the redshift prior or training samples would constitute a milestone for the control of redshift systematic uncertainties in future weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Application and Evaluation of Surrogate Models for Radiation Source Search

Surrogate models are increasingly required for applications in which first-principles simulation models are prohibitively expensive to employ for uncertainty analysis, design, or control. They can also be used to approximate models whose discontinuous derivatives preclude the use of gradient-based optimization or data assimilation algorithms. We consider the problem of inferring the 2D location and intensity of a radiation source in an urban environment using a ray-tracing model based on Boltzmann transport theory. Whereas the code implementing this model is relatively efficient, extension to 3D Monte Carlo transport simulations precludes subsequent Bayesian inference to infer source locations, which typically requires thousands to millions of simulations. Additionally, the resulting likelihood exhibits discontinuous derivatives due to the presence of buildings. To address these issues, we discuss the construction of surrogate models for optimization, Bayesian inference, and uncertainty propagation. Specifically, we consider surrogate models based on Legendre polynomials, multivariate adaptive regression splines, radial basis functions, Gaussian processes, and neural networks. We detail strategies for computing training points and discuss the merits and deficits of each method.

Cook, Jared A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Strategies for Accelerated Materials Design

The ongoing revolution of the natural sciences by the advent of machine learning and artificial intelligence sparked significant interest in the material science community in recent years. The intrinsically high dimensionality of the space of realizable materials makes traditional approaches ineffective for large-scale explorations. Modern data science and machine learning tools developed for increasingly complicated problems are an attractive alternative. An imminent climate catastrophe calls for a clean energy transformation by overhauling current technologies within only several years of possible action available. Tackling this crisis requires the development of new materials at an unprecedented pace and scale. For example, organic photovoltaics have the potential to replace existing silicon-based materials to a large extent and open up new fields of application. In recent years, organic light-emitting diodes have emerged as state-of-the-art technology for digital screens and portable devices and are enabling new applications with flexible displays. Reticular frameworks allow the atom-precise synthesis of nanomaterials and promise to revolutionize the field by the potential to realize multifunctional nanoparticles with applications from gas storage, gas separation, and electrochemical energy storage to nanomedicine. In the recent decade, significant advances in all these fields have been facilitated by the comprehensive application of simulation and machine learning for property prediction, property optimization, and chemical space exploration enabled by considerable advances in computing power and algorithmic efficiency. In this Account, we review the most recent contributions of our group in this thriving field of machine learning for material science. We start with a summary of the most important material classes our group has been involved in, focusing on small molecules as organic electronic materials and crystalline materials. Specifically, we highlight the data-driven approaches we employed to speed up discovery and derive material design strategies. Subsequently, our focus lies on the data-driven methodologies our group has developed and employed, elaborating on high-throughput virtual screening, inverse molecular design, Bayesian optimization, and supervised learning. We discuss the general ideas, their working principles, and their use cases with examples of successful implementations in data-driven material discovery and design efforts. Furthermore, we elaborate on potential pitfalls and remaining challenges of these methods. Finally, we provide a brief outlook for the field as we foresee increasing adaptation and implementation of large scale data-driven approaches in material discovery and design campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Almost medium-free measurement of the Hoyle state direct-decay component with a TPC

The structure of the Hoyle state, a highly α -clustered state at 7.65 MeV in 12 C, has long been the subject of debate. Understanding if the system comprises of three weakly interacting α particles in the 0s orbital, known as an α-condensate state, is possible by studying the decay branches of the Hoyle state. The direct decay of the Hoyle state into three α particles, rather than through the 8 Be ground state, can be identified by studying the energy partition of the three α particles arising from the decay. This paper provides details on the breakup mechanism of the Hoyle stating using a new experimental technique. Method: By using β-delayed charged-particle spectroscopy of 12 N using the Texas active target time-projection chamber, a high-sensitivity measurement of the direct 3α decay ratio can be performed without contributions from pileup events. A Bayesian approach to understanding the contribution of the direct components via a likelihood function shows that the direct component is <0.043% at the 95% confidence level. This value is in agreement with several other studies, and, here, we can demonstrate that a small nonsequential component with a decay fraction of about 10 –4 is most likely. Here, the measurement of the non-sequential component of the Hoyle state decay is performed in an almost medium-free reaction for the first time. The derived upper limit is in agreement with previous studies and demonstrates sensitivity to the absolute branching ratio. Further experimental studies would need to be combined with robust microscopic theoretical understanding of the decay dynamics to provide additional insight into the idea of the Hoyle state as an α condensate.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time Event Detection Using Rank Signatures of Real-world PMU Data

Timely detection of power system events is a crucial task, which can facilitate the implementation of remedial actions to improve reliability, resiliency, and security of the system. Meanwhile, the widespread deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) makes it possible to develop data-driven event detection techniques. However, relying purely on data without incorporating domain knowledge for the event detection task in power systems poses substantial security and stability risks due to issues associated with data misinterpretation and model accuracy. In this regard, we propose a real-time event detection method using real-world PMU data by incorporating domain knowledge to adequately capture the event signatures. Specifically, we track the change in rank signatures of PMU data to accurately localize the events. To optimize the detection process, we incorporate an offline Bayesian optimization algorithm to tune the parameters by efficiently searching for the best values. The experiments using the real-world PMU dataset from a U.S. interconnection show that the proposed event detection approach can efficiently detect the events from PMU data streams with high accuracy.

Ghasemkhani, Amir↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Material Strength Variabilities and Uncertainties for Component Qualification (2020 LDRD Final Report)

At its core, material specification and materials qualification require an understanding of the uncertainties in relation to a given performance metric. When simulations are used to inform the design and evaluation of these metrics, it is essential to understand the uncertainties in the underlying models and parameters that feed into those simulations. In this work, we have created a statistical framework to address uncertainties in the materials strength modeling used in integrated simulations. The framework is based on the Bayesian methodology, which allows for uncertainties to be updated as new data become available. The results of this work show how model parameters and their uncertainties can be updated as new and different types of strength data are added, as well as methods for determining which future experiment has the greatest potential to reduce the uncertainty. The statistical framework developed in this project will be utilized to assess and propagate the uncertainties in the strength models used in the programmatic simulations and to create a way to formally update those uncertainties as new data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlations between the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and the Equation of State of Dense Matter

We develop an analytic method of inverting the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff relations to high accuracy. In principle, a specified energy density–pressure relation gives a unique mass–radius (M–R) relation and vice versa. Our method is developed from the strong correlations that are shown to exist between the neutron star mass–radius curve and the equation of state (EOS) or pressure–energy density relation. Selecting points that have masses equal to fixed fractions of the maximum mass, we find a semi-universal power-law relation between the central energy densities, pressures, sound speeds, chemical potentials, and number densities of those stars, with the maximum mass and the radii of one or more fractional maximum mass points. Rms fitting accuracies, for EOSs without large first-order phase transitions, are typically 0.5% for all quantities at all mass points. The method also works well, although less accurately, in reconstructing the EOS of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions. These results permit, in effect, an analytic method of inverting an arbitrary M–R curve to yield its underlying EOS. We discuss applications of this inversion technique to the inference of the dense matter EOS from measurements of neutron star masses and radii as a possible alternative to traditional Bayesian approaches.

Bayesian statistics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the role of segmentation on process-structure–property predictions made via machine learning

Here, the present study investigated the effect of porosity surface determination methods on performance of machine learning models used to predict the tensile properties of AlSi10Mg processed by laser powder bed fusion from micro-computed tomography data. Machine learning models applied in this work include support vector machines, neural networks, decision trees, and Bayesian classifiers. The effects of isosurface thresholding and local gradient approaches for porosity segmentation, as well as image filtering schemes, on model precision were evaluated for samples produced under differing levels of global energy density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

BASS: An R Package for Fitting and Performing Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

In this work, we present the R package BASS as a tool for nonparametric regression. The primary focus of the package is fitting fully Bayesian adaptive spline surface (BASS) models and performing global sensitivity analyses of these models. The BASS framework is similar to that of Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines (BMARS) from Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998), but with many added features. The software is built to efficiently handle significant amounts of data with many continuous or categorical predictors and with functional response. Under our Bayesian framework, most priors are automatic but these can be modified by the user to focus on parsimony and the avoidance of overfitting. If directed to do so, the software uses parallel tempering to improve the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods used to perform inference. We discuss the implementation of these features and present the performance of BASS in a number of analyses of simulated and real data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting

A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power output and other calculated parameters for training. Consequently, useful information is provided for establishing a robust day-ahead forecasting methodology that utilizes calculated input parameters and an optimal supervised learning approach. Finally, the obtained results demonstrated that the optimally constructed BNN outperformed all other machine learning models achieving forecasting accuracies lower than 5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering multiscale structure-property correlations via active learning in scanning tunneling microscopy

Atomic arrangements and local sub-structures fundamentally influence emergent material functionalities. These structures are conventionally probed using spatially resolved studies and the property correlations are deciphered by a researcher based on sequential explorations, thereby limiting the efficiency and scope. Here we demonstrate a multi-scale Bayesian deep-learning based framework that automatically correlates material structure with its electronic properties using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) measurements in real-time. Its predictions are used to autonomously direct exploration toward regions of the sample that optimize a given material property. This method is deployed on a low-temperature ultra-high vacuum STM to understand the structure-property relationship in a europium-based semimetal, EuZn 2 As 2 , a promising candidate relevant to magnetism-driven topological phenomena. The framework employs a sparse-sampling approach to efficiently construct the scalar-property space using minimal measurements, about 1–10% of the data required in standard hyperspectral methods. Moreover, we formulate the problem hierarchically across length scales, implementing autonomous workflow to locate mesoscopic and atomic structures that correspond to a target material property. This framework offers the choice to design scalar-property from the spectroscopic data to steer sample exploration. Our findings reveal correlations of the electronic properties unique to surface terminations, local defect density, and point defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗