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DOE OSTI2012

An investigation of environmental and sustainability discourses associated with the substantive purposes of environmental assessment

This paper investigates the discursive construction of the substantive purposes of environmental assessment (EA). It addresses these purposes by exploring the complex and often multifaceted linkages between political factors and plural views of democracy, public participation, and the role of science that are embedded in environmental and sustainability discourses. The interaction between policy-making and public actors leads to the formulation of divergent and potentially competing rationales for public participation, and for social appraisal more generally. Participatory approaches have also given impetus to the development of several interpretations on the role of science in assessment procedures. Science is important in mediating public participation and the two are therefore reciprocally linked. This leads to discourses that become manifest in the construction of substantive purposes. Discourse analysis in EA is a relevant method for examining trends and patterns in sustainable development. It is argued that public participation is an important, if not decisive, variable in the articulation and civil legitimacy of certain purposes. A general proposition that results from this paper is that EA, although typically presented as an objective scientific tool, is an intrinsically normative process. Enhanced knowledge on the construction, and reconstruction over time, of substantive purposes is required if environmental and sustainability discourses are to be used and understood as meaningful analytical instruments to assess the socio-political implications of EA. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Substantive purposes related to environmental assessment may be best analyzed through discourse analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental and sustainability discourses are contingent on the level of participatory democracy and civic science. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Public participation is a decisive variable in the construction of the substantive purpose of environmental assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Strategic environmental assessment for sustainability: A review of a decade of academic research

This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA)–sustainability relationship over the past decade, from 2000 to 2010, focusing in particular on the incorporation of sustainability in SEA. A total of 86 papers from the academic literature containing the terms ‘sustainability’ or ‘sustainable development’ and ‘strategic environmental assessment’ were identified and reviewed. Several common themes emerged by which SEA can support sustainability, including providing a framework to support decision making for sustainability; setting sustainability objectives, ensuring the consideration of ‘more sustainable’ alternatives, and integrating sustainability criteria in PPP development; and promoting sustainability outcomes through tiering and institutional learning. At the same time, our review identified many underlying barriers that challenge SEA for sustainability, including the variable interpretations of the scope of sustainability in SEA; the limited use of assessment criteria directly linked to sustainability objectives; and challenges for decision-makers in operationalizing sustainability in SEA and adapting PPP development decision-making processes to include sustainability issues. To advance SEA for sustainability there is a need to better define the scope of sustainability in SEA; clarify how to operationalize the different approaches to sustainability in SEA, as opposed to simply describing those approaches; provide guidance on how to operationalize broad sustainability goals through assessment criteria in SEA; and understand better how to facilitate institutional learning regarding sustainability through SEA application. -- Highlights: ► There is significant potential for SEA to support sustainability in PPP development. ► However, there are still many barriers in place that challenge SEA for sustainability. ► The scope and approaches to sustainability in SEA must be better defined and described. ► Guidance is needed to link impact assessment criteria to sustainability objectives. ► Focus on how to facilitate institutional learning regarding sustainability is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Assessing human rights impacts in corporate development projects

Human rights impact assessment (HRIA) is a process for systematically identifying, predicting and responding to the potential impact on human rights of a business operation, capital project, government policy or trade agreement. Traditionally, it has been conducted as a desktop exercise to predict the effects of trade agreements and government policies on individuals and communities. In line with a growing call for multinational corporations to ensure they do not violate human rights in their activities, HRIA is increasingly incorporated into the standard suite of corporate development project impact assessments. In this context, the policy world's non-structured, desk-based approaches to HRIA are insufficient. Although a number of corporations have commissioned and conducted HRIA, no broadly accepted and validated assessment tool is currently available. The lack of standardisation has complicated efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of HRIA as a risk mitigation tool, and has caused confusion in the corporate world regarding company duties. Hence, clarification is needed. The objectives of this paper are (i) to describe an HRIA methodology, (ii) to provide a rationale for its components and design, and (iii) to illustrate implementation of HRIA using the methodology in two selected corporate development projects—a uranium mine in Malawi and a tree farm in Tanzania. We found that as a prognostic tool, HRIA could examine potential positive and negative human rights impacts and provide effective recommendations for mitigation. However, longer-term monitoring revealed that recommendations were unevenly implemented, dependent on market conditions and personnel movements. This instability in the approach to human rights suggests a need for on-going monitoring and surveillance. -- Highlights: • We developed a novel methodology for corporate human rights impact assessment. • We piloted the methodology on two corporate projects—a mine and a plantation. • Human rights impact assessment exposed impacts not foreseen in ESIA. • Corporations adopted the majority of findings, but not necessarily immediately. • Methodological advancements are expected for monitoring processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Setting boundaries of participation in environmental impact assessment

Public participation processes are touted as an effective way to increase the capacity and legitimacy of environmental assessment and the regulatory process that rely on them. Recent changes to the Canadian environmental assessment process narrowed the criteria for who can participate in environmental assessments from any who were interested to those who were most directly affected. This article examines the potential consequences of this change by exploring other areas of Canadian regulatory law where a similar directed affected test has been applied. This new standard risks institutionalizing the long-understood representational bias confronted by more diffuse interest like environmental protection. Restricting participation to the “directly affected” is far too narrow a test for processes like environmental assessment that are designed to determine the public interest. -- Highlights: • Public participation can improve the legitimacy of environmental assessments. • New Canadian rules narrow the range of eligible participants. • Similar rules in Alberta have excluded environmental representation. • The new rules may institutionalize bias against more diffuse interests. • Restricting participation to the “directly affected” is far too narrow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized but not analysed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A new method to assess the sustainability performance of events: Application to the 2014 World Orienteering Championship

Nowadays an increasing attention of public and private agencies to the sustainability performance of events is observed, since it is recognized as a key issue in the context of sustainable development. Assessing the sustainability performance of events involves environmental, social and economic aspects; their impacts are complex and a quantitative assessment is often difficult. This paper presents a new quali-quantitative method developed to measure the sustainability of events, taking into account all its potential impacts. The 2014 World Orienteering Championship, held in Italy, was selected to test the proposed evaluation methodology. The total carbon footprint of the event was 165.34 tCO{sub 2}eq and the avoided emissions were estimated as being 46 tCO{sub 2}eq. The adopted quali-quantitative method resulted to be efficient in assessing the sustainability impacts and can be applied for the evaluation of similar events. - Highlights: • A quali-quantitative method to assess events' sustainability is presented. • All the methodological issues related to the method are explained. • The method is used to evaluate the sustainability of an international sports event. • The method resulted to be valid to assess the event's sustainability level. • The carbon footprint of the event has been calculated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Conceptualizing strategic environmental assessment: Principles, approaches and research directions

Increasing emphasis has been placed in recent years on transitioning strategic environmental assessment (SEA) away from its environmental impact assessment (EIA) roots. Scholars have argued the need to conceptualize SEA as a process designed to facilitate strategic thinking, thus enabling transitions toward sustainability. The practice of SEA, however, remains deeply rooted in the EIA tradition and scholars and practitioners often appear divided on the nature and purpose of SEA. This paper revisits the strategic principles of SEA and conceptualizes SEA as a multi-faceted and multi-dimensional assessment process. It is suggested that SEA can be conceptualized as series of approaches operating along a spectrum from less to more strategic – from impact assessment-based to strategy-based – with each approach to SEA differentiated by the specific objectives of SEA application and the extent to which strategic principles are reflected in its design and implementation. Advancing the effectiveness of SEA requires a continued research agenda focused on improving the traditional SEA approach, as a tool to assess the impacts of policies, plans and programs (PPPs). Realizing the full potential of SEA, however, requires a new research agenda — one focused on the development and testing of a deliberative governance approach to SEA that can facilitate strategic innovations in PPP formulation and drive transitions in short-term policy and initiatives based on longer-term thinking. - Highlights: • SEA facilitates strategic thinking, enabling transitions toward sustainability. • SEA is conceptualized as a spectrum of approaches, from IA-based to strategy-based. • Each approach variably emphasizes strategic principles in its design and practice. • There is no one conceptualization of SEA that is best, SEA is fit for PPP purpose. • Research is needed to advance SEA to facilitate strategic PPP transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

High speed rail comparative strategic assessments in EU member states

This paper explores the role and capacity of strategic level assessments in addressing the strategic dimension of High Speed Rail (HSR) proposals and influencing decision-making processes. The overall research objective was to find out to what extent opportunities for strategic thinking are being undertaken in HSR. Three different cases of high speed rail were compared – High Speed Rail 2 (HS2) in the UK, High Speed Rail Network (RFAV) in Portugal and European Gauge Railway Line Kaunas in the Lithuanian-Latvian Border (Rail Baltica 2). Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) effectiveness literature was reviewed to draw on criteria that could establish a comparative framework to explain how environmental and sustainability assessments were undertaken in the three aforementioned European high speed rail case studies. Research results allow us to conclude that an SEA or a sustainability assessment/appraisal (SA) will be most beneficial if developed before any HSR project to first determine if HSR is really necessary and strategically justifiable to the achievement of both environmental and sustainability objectives. Results achieved suggest that even though the SEA and SA in the three cases studied can be said to have influenced the planning process mostly at project-level decisions, it also shows a missed opportunity to contribute to developing a high level strategy for HSR that addresses several strategic issues, assessing options before they are undertaken. - Highlights: •HSR network is strategically relevant for European development. •SEA and SA have been used to support HSR decision-making processes in Europe. •Three HSR SEA/SA cases in Europe (UK, Portugal and Lithuania-Latvia) were reviewed. •Cases were compared in relation to the strategic nature of the assessment. •Conclusions show a missed opportunity to address to a high level strategy for HSR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determining significance in social impact assessments (SIA) by applying both technical and participatory approaches: Methodology development and application in a case study of the concentrated solar power plant NOOR{sub O} I in Morocco

One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOOR{sub O} I in Ouarzazate, Morocco. The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments. - Highlights: •Significance evaluation in social impact assessments lacks participatory aspects. •Combined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation developed •Application in a case study to analyse the livelihood impacts of a CSP plant •Involvement of local stakeholders and technical experts results in robust findings. •Social, cultural and political issues are often more relevant than material aspects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mapping environmental sensitivity: A systematic online approach to support environmental assessment and planning

Environmental sensitivity analysis provides a framework for systematically and objectively determining the potential for significant environmental impacts. The higher the natural or acquired sensitivity of the receiving environment, the less capable it is to cope with human-induced change. Given that sensitivity is context- and spatially-specific, Geographic Information Systems have been applied to develop an operational Webtool to analyse it. The Webtool enables a rapid and replicable spatial examination of environmental sensitivities and potential for land-use conflicts that supports Strategic Environmental Assessment and, ultimately, informed planning and decision-making. The novelty is on the provision of an online geoprocessing Widget that enables creation of context-specific maps. Pilot testing the Webtool in land-use and renewable energy planning through stakeholder engagement has validated its applicability. Stakeholders confirmed that it enables replicating and, in some cases, improving in-house SEA mapping processes while saving time and effort. However, its full reliance on publicly available spatial datasets renders completeness and resolution issues. The Webtool provides a critical starting-point for sectoral planning discussions and for developing plan/programme alternatives that avoid or minimise potentially incompatible or unsustainable zonings, while promoting consistency and transparency in impact assessment. - Highlights: •Sensitivity mapping can enhance baseline information for environmental assessments. •A novel online geoprocessing tool supports systematic sensitivity assessment. •It enables combining context-specific environmental criteria and value judgments. •Pilot testing it through stakeholder engagement has validated its applicability. •The tool promotes assessment consistency and transparency but data issues remain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Initiating sustainability assessments: Insights from practice on a procedural perspective

Highlights: • Initial sustainability assessment processes investigated in a developing country (Indonesia). • International commitments are instrumental in setting MNEs' sustainability agenda. • Global platforms are important for determining sustainability issues considered. - Abstract: Sustainability assessment is a key method that offers a platform from which the private sector can implement systematic processes to address sustainability. While this presents a unique opportunity for broadening the use of sustainability assessments, this is constrained by the lack of commonly accepted processes and little empirical evidence on private sector practices. This study directly engages with this dilemma, examining the initiation step of the sustainability assessment from a procedural framework perspective. A multiple case study approach is utilised with semi-structured interviews of 32 respondents from nine multinational enterprises operating in the manufacturing industry of Indonesia. Findings indicate the initiation step is initially directed by regulatory compliance, with organisations using checklists based on mandatory sustainability issues to consider. The majority of organisations go beyond this compliance approach, however, with the role of the headquarters directing these organisations to more holistically consider sustainability issues through the use of established lists and materiality analysis. This is informed through headquarter commitments to voluntary international standards and global sustainability guidelines, which have translated into corporate practice through established policies and procedures. These findings highlight the importance of an emerging trend for the private sector to undertake voluntary activities beyond the regulatory context of the country they are operating within, and guided by corporate codes of conduct, when undertaking sustainability assessments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Health impact assessment of transport policies in Rotterdam: Decrease of total traffic and increase of electric car use

Background: Green house gas (GHG) mitigation policies can be evaluated by showing their co-benefits to health. Method: Health Impact Assessment (HIA) was used to quantify co-benefits of GHG mitigation policies in Rotterdam. The effects of two separate interventions (10% reduction of private vehicle kilometers and a share of 50% electric-powered private vehicle kilometers) on particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}), elemental carbon (EC) and noise (engine noise and tyre noise) were assessed using Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with Disability (YLD). The baseline was 2010 and the end of the assessment 2020. Results: The intervention aimed at reducing traffic is associated with a decreased exposure to noise resulting in a reduction of 21 (confidence interval (CI): 11–129) YLDs due to annoyance and 35 (CI: 20–51) YLDs due to sleep disturbance for the population per year. The effects of 50% electric-powered car use are slightly higher with a reduction of 26 (CI: 13–116) and 41 (CI: 24–60) YLDs, respectively. The two interventions have marginal effects on air pollution, because already implemented traffic policies will reduce PM{sub 2.5} and EC by around 40% and 60% respectively, from 2010 to 2020. Discussion: The evaluation of planned interventions, related to climate change policies, targeting only the transport sector can result in small co-benefits for health, if the analysis is limited to air pollution and noise. This urges to expand the analysis by including other impacts, e.g. physical activity and well-being, as a necessary step to better understanding consequences of interventions and carefully orienting resources useful to build knowledge to improve public health. - Highlights: • We estimated co-benefits of greenhouse gas reduction policies from 2010 to 2020. • The city scale health impact assessment base on real transport policy scenarios. • Effects of particulate matter, elemental carbon and noise on health are assessed. • The effects are rather small but still positive for the planned scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Toward dynamic urban environmental exposure assessments in mental health research

Highlights: • The environmental context affects people's mental health. • Environmental exposure assessments are frequently restricted to the neighborhoods in which people currently live. • Dynamic exposures along people's daily paths may trigger mental disorders. • Exposures over people's residential history might affect mental health later in life. • Only dynamic exposure assessments enable the inclusion of the duration and sequence of exposures and risk accumulation over time. It is increasingly recognized that mental disorders are affected by both personal characteristics and environmental exposures. The built, natural, and social environments can either contribute to or buffer against metal disorders. Environmental exposure assessments related to mental health typically rely on neighborhoods within which people currently live. In this article, I call into question such neighborhood-based exposure assessments at one point in time, because human life unfolds over space and across time. To circumvent inappropriate exposure assessments and to better grasp the etiologies of mental disease, I argue that people are exposed to multiple health-supporting and harmful exposures not only during their daily lives, but also over the course of their lives. This article aims to lay a theoretical foundation elucidating the impact of dynamic environmental exposures on mental health outcomes. I examine, first, the possibilities and challenges for mental health research to integrate people's environmental exposures along their daily paths and, second, how exposures over people's residential history might affect mental health later in life. To push the borders of scientific inquiries, I stress that only such mobility-based approaches facilitate an exploration of exposure duration, exposure sequences, and exposure accumulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Performance of low-cost monitors to assess household air pollution

Highlights: • We assessed PM{sub 2.5} and CO low-cost monitors in semi-controlled and field studies. • Devices experienced high failure rate and susceptibility to environmental changes. • Low-cost monitors tested may not be ready to replace more established methods. Exposure to household air pollution is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. However, due to the lack of validated low-cost monitors with long-lasting batteries in indoor environments, most epidemiologic studies use self-reported data or short-term household air pollution assessments as proxies of long-term exposure. We evaluated the performance of three low-cost monitors measuring fine particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) and carbon monoxide (CO) in a wood-combustion experiment conducted in one household of Spain for 5 days (including the co-location of 2 units of HAPEX and 3 units of TZOA-R for PM{sub 2.5} and 3 units of EL-USB-CO for CO; a total of 40 unit-days). We used Spearman correlation (ρ) and Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) to assess accuracy of low-cost monitors versus equivalent research-grade devices. We also conducted a field study in India for 1 week (including HAPEX in 3 households and EL-USB-CO in 4 households; a total of 49 unit-days). Correlation and agreement at 5-min were moderate-high for one unit of HAPEX (ρ = 0.73 / CCC = 0.59), for one unit of TZOA-R (ρ = 0.89 / CCC = 0.62) and for three units of EL-USB-CO (ρ = 0.82–0.89 / CCC = 0.66–0.91) in Spain, although the failure or malfunction rate among low-cost units was high in both settings (60% of unit-days in Spain and 43% in India). Low-cost monitors tested here are not yet ready to replace more established exposure assessment methods in long-term household air pollution epidemiologic studies. More field validation is needed to assess evolving sensors and monitors with application to health studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure assessment using back-extrapolation of satellite-based land-use regression models for Australia

Highlights: • We assessed how well a year-2006 satellite-based LUR model captures historical NO{sub 2}. • We used three methods to estimate annual mean NO{sub 2} during 1990–2005. • We measured their performance using standard LUR validation techniques. • Back-extrapolated 2006 levels captured up to 76% of spatial variability (90–05). Assessing historical exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies is often problematic because of limited spatial and temporal measurement coverage. Several methods for modelling historical exposures have been described, including land-use regression (LUR). Satellite-based LUR is a recent technique that seeks to improve predictive ability and spatial coverage of traditional LUR models by using satellite observations of pollutants as inputs to LUR. Few studies have explored its validity for assessing historical exposures, reflecting the absence of historical observations from popular satellite platforms like Aura (launched mid-2004). We investigated whether contemporary satellite-based LUR models for Australia, developed longitudinally for 2006–2011, could capture nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) concentrations during 1990–2005 at 89 sites around the country. We assessed three methods to back-extrapolate year-2006 NO{sub 2} predictions: (1) ‘do nothing’ (i.e., use the year-2006 estimates directly, for prior years); (2) change the independent variable ‘year’ in our LUR models to match the years of interest (i.e., assume a linear trend prior to year-2006, following national average patterns in 2006–2011), and; (3) adjust year-2006 predictions using selected historical measurements. We evaluated prediction error and bias, and the correlation and absolute agreement of measurements and predictions using R{sup 2} and mean-square error R{sup 2} (MSE-R{sup 2}), respectively. We found that changing the year variable led to best performance; predictions captured between 41% (1991; MSE-R{sup 2} = 31%) and 80% (2003; MSE-R{sup 2} = 78%) of spatial variability in NO{sub 2} in a given year, and 76% (MSE-R{sup 2} = 72%) averaged over 1990–2005. We conclude that simple methods for back-extrapolating prior to year-2006 yield valid historical NO{sub 2} estimates for Australia during 1990–2005. These results suggest that for the time scales considered here, satellite-based LUR has a potential role to play in long-term exposure assessment, even in the absence of historical predictor data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk of Mortality in Family Members of Men Seeking Fertility Assessment

Objective: To assess mortality in family members of men seeking fertility assessment. Subfertility serves as a biomarker for overall somatic health, and poor semen quality is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from chronic conditions. However, it is unclear if these risks extend to family members of men with low sperm count. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Family members, up to third-degree relatives, of men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort who underwent a semen analysis as part of a fertility assessment 1996–2017. Relatives of men with a recorded total sperm count who lived in Utah for ≥1 year 1904–2017 were included in the analysis (N = 22,280 families). Exposure: Individuals were classified by family membership. Families were classified as relatives of azoospermic (0M), oligozoospermic (<39M), or normozoospermic (≥39M) men. The average total sperm count of the proband (male relative) with fertility assessment was also included as a continuous exposure measure. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk by sex, age, and degree of relation: first-, second-, and third-degree. Cox proportional hazard models were used to test the association between fertility classification and mortality, controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year. Results: A total of 666,437 relatives of men with fertility assessment (N deaths = 183,974) were included in the analysis. Relative to normozoospermia families, all-cause mortality risk increased in oligozoospermia families (hazard ratio [HR] oligozoospermia , 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.05). Close relatives, first- (HR oligozoospermia , 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07–1.28) and second-degree relatives (HR azoospermia , 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.20; HR oligozoospermia , 1.05; 95% CI,1.01–1.09), of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men had the highest all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk, including death attributed to cardiovascular disease or congenital birth conditions. Conclusion: Our results suggest that familial all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk differ by fertility phenotype. Families of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men showed significantly increased risk, particularly for close relatives. This study provides further evidence that shared genetic and/or environmental factors could influence both fertility and somatic health.

Male fertility↗